Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Paul Morrison

Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth

Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth

Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Sun

Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth

Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Methodist

Recorder

Cameron pledges to tu

rn

round 120,000 'troubled'

families – Te

legraph

Almost 1.5million Britons

have never done a day’s work

in their lives. – Mail

Revealed: How 1.4 million

spent a decade on the dole

under Labour - Mail

Misleading

Britain hit by £10bn tax credit

fraudsters, claims Duncan

Smith - Telegraph

Report reveals 120,000

problem households:

Criminal cultu

re at the heart

of feckless familie

s':

Shocking report l

ifts lid

on

incest, abuse and spira

l of

alcohol abuse - Mail

Meet the families where no

one's worked for THREE

generations - and they don't

care - Mail

Lies

Statisticians are nice people who tell the

truth

Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into

the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics

Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into

the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics

• Make misleading headlines of your own

Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into

the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics

• Make misleading headlines of your own• Make you really angry – If there is time

Plan• Suggest how you could use stats• Go through some examples• Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School?

• The worst use of stats I have ever seen

Death & Taxes

Death & TaxesUnderstand

Death & TaxesUnderstand

Describe

Death & TaxesUnderstand

Describe

Convince

UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote

experience

UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote

experience

belief

UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote

experience

numbersbelief

UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote

experience

numbersbelief

scale conflict

reliability

UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote

experience

numbersbelief

scale conflict

reliability

• Why are you looking?

• Can you reconcile the “soft” and “hard” evidence?

DescribingUnderstand

Describe

Describing

Describe

selective process

Describing

Describe

narrative

selective process

Describing

Describe

narrative

stats to reinforce

selective process

Describing

Describe

narrative “forget” other evidence

stats to reinforce

Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence?selective process

Describing

Describe

narrative “forget” other evidence

stats to reinforce

selective process

Describing

Describe

narrative “forget” other evidence

stats to reinforce

Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence?selective process

Persuading

Convince

Persuading

Convince

most selective process

where stats are most abused

Persuading

Convince

most selective process

where stats are most abused

snappy & accurate is difficult

Persuading

Convince

most selective process

where stats are most abused

snappy & accurate is difficult

the link between what was counted and the number is often broken

Persuading

Convince

most selective process

where stats are most abused

snappy & accurate is difficult

the link between what was counted and the number is often broken

Does it illuminate or obscure the truth?

Plan• Suggest how you could use stats• Go through some examples• Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School?

• The worst use of stats I have ever seen

Barnes Nursery School• Closure is announced – 2 years time• Your Sunday School Teacher

• Starts a petition • asks you & your church to join in the

campaign.

Barnes Nursery School“After widespread consultation the Richmond Council has decide that BNS should not take further pupils from Oct 2014.....other providers will give the same level of service allowing the closure of BNS with its saving of and a saving of £0.4 million annually.......nursery schooling will remain available to the children of Barnes and existing pupils will not be affected....

Barnes Nursery SchoolGet into Church councils of 5-6 and decide what you do you do next?

What information do you want to help you make the decision?

- I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)

Barnes Nursery SchoolWhat do you do next?What information do you want?

- I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)

Barnes Nursery SchoolHalf of the church councils support the closureHalf want it open.

You need to explain your decision to the church as a whole what new information do you want?

Barnes Nursery SchoolYou need to explain to the press in a few lines your position.

- use an honest stat if you can- a dodgy but defendable one would do aswell

Sources of InformationLocal:Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version

Local Authority Website:budgets, local area plans and demographics

Office of National Statistics:http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/

Sources of InformationNational:Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version

Office of National Statistics:http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/

Department of Work and Pensions: http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=statistics

Institute for Fiscal Studies: www.ifs.org.uk

Sources of InformationNational:

Find a trusted interest group / think-tank:For Poverty: Joseph Rowntree Foundation

www.jrf.org.uk

Resolution Foundation www.resolutionfoundation.org/

Children’s Societywww.childrensociety.org.uk

Centre for Social Justice – influential but.........

“The lies we tell ourselves: Ending Comfortable Myths

About Poverty”Baptist Union of Great Britain

Church of ScotlandMethodist Church

United Reformed Church

GETTING YOU ANGRY

• no parent in the family is in work• family lives in overcrowded housing• no parent has any qualifications• mother has mental health problems• at least one parent has a long-standing disability• family has low income• family cannot afford some basics

Think of a family with five of these problems

GETTING YOU ANGRY

• no parent in the family is in work• family lives in overcrowded housing• no parent has any qualifications• mother has mental health problems• at least one parent has a long-standing disability• family has low income• family cannot afford some basics

Think of a family with five of these problems

• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,

GETTING YOU ANGRY

• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,

David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror

GETTING YOU ANGRY

• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,

It's time problem families took the blame: Pickles calls for tougher action on those who blame background and childhood for their troubles – Daily Mail

David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror

GETTING YOU ANGRY

• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,

SCUM CLANS BLITZ - Daily Star

GETTING YOU ANGRY

“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012

16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000

The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking

GETTING YOU LIVID?

“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012

16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000

“Child Abuse Rife in Hell Families – report exposes 120,000 worst households” - The Sun

The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking

GETTING YOU LIVID?

“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012

16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000

“Child Abuse Rife in Hell Families – report exposes 120,000 worst households” - The Sun

The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking

The most commonly quote:“The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse and sometimes child rape was striking and shocking”

GETTING YOU LIVID?

“The lies we tell ourselves: Ending Comfortable Myths

About Poverty”Baptist Union of Great Britain

Church of ScotlandMethodist Church

United Reformed Church

Justice is turned back, and righteousness stands far off. For truth has stumbled in the public square, and honesty cannot enter.

Isaiah 59 v14