Libertad Económica y Crecimiento Económico Mundial: Evidencia e Implicaciones por Julio H. Cole,...
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Transcript of Libertad Económica y Crecimiento Económico Mundial: Evidencia e Implicaciones por Julio H. Cole,...
Libertad Económica y Crecimiento Económico Mundial: Evidencia e Implicaciones
por
Julio H. Cole, Ph.D.
UFM — Guatemala
Tasas de Crecimiento (%), PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99.
0
4
8
12
16
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Tasas de Crecimiento Poblacional (% anual), 106 Países, 1980-99.
0
4
8
12
16
0 1 2 3 4
POPGROWTHAnnual rate of population growth (%)106 countries (1980-99)
Mean 1.866899Median 2.062509Maximum 4.169874Minimum -0.433773Std. Dev. 1.055666Skewness -0.307580Kurtosis 2.227420
Jarque-Bera 4.307584Probability 0.116043
Fertilidad y Crecimiento Poblacional, 106 Países, 1980-99.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 2 4 6 8
FERTIL
PO
PG
RO
WT
H
Fertilidad y PIB per cápita en 1980, 106 Países
0
2
4
6
8
0 5000 10000 15000
GDP80
FE
RT
IL
Fertilidad y Tasa de Crecimiento PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99
-5
0
5
10
0 2 4 6 8
FERTIL
GR
OW
TH
Libertad Económica, Ingreso per cápita, y Crecimiento Económico
Países Ordenados PIB per cápita Tasa de Crecimiento (%)según índice EFW 2000 PPP (us$) PIB per cápita, 1990-2000
Quintil inferor $2,556 –0.85
4º quintil $4,365 1.44
3er quintil $6,235 1.13
2o quintil $12,390 1.57
Quintil superior $23,450 2.56
Fuente: Gwartney et al. (2002), p. 20, Exhibits 5 and 8.
PIB per cápita según Latitud, 1995.
Modelo Neo-Clásico de Crecimiento
Solow (1956)Barro (1991), Mankiw, Romer & Weil (1992)
• Ingreso Inicial (“efecto convergencia”) (–)
• Tasa de Inversión (INV/GDP) (+)
• Crecimiento Demográfico (–)
• Capital Humano (+)
Geografía y Crecimiento Económico
Gallup, Sachs & Mellinger (1999), Sachs (2000)
• TROPICAR = proporción del territorio ubicado en regiones tropicales
• POP100KM = proporción de la población que vive a menos de 100 kilómetros del mar
• LOGDIST = log de distancia (aérea) respecto de Nueva York, Rotterdam o Tokio
Regresiones — Variables Explicativas
LOGGDP80 = log de PIB per cápita en 1980 (PPA)
INV = Inversión como % de PIB, promedio 1980-99
FERTIL = Tasa de Fertilidad, promedio1980-99
DSCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad de población adulta (15 años o más),” 1980-95 (Barro & Lee, 2001)
DFEMSCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad para población femenina (15 años o más),” 1980-95
DMALESCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad para población masculina (15 años o más),” 1980-95
Regresiones — Variables Explicativas (cont.)
EFW = Indice de Libertad Económica (promedio de los valores para 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995)
DEFW = Cambio en el índice EFW entre 1980 y 1995
TROPICAR = proporción del territorio ubicado en regiones tropicales
POP100KM = proporción de la población que vive a menos de 100 kilómetros del mar
LOGDIST = log de distancia (aérea) respecto de Nueva York, Rotterdam o Tokio
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604[5.559]
LOGGDP80 -1.433[-5.831]
INV 0.076[3.035]
FERTIL -1.203[-7.859]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15
DFEMSCH15
EFW
DEFW
Adjusted R-squared 0.587N 90White test (chi-square) 5.03d.f. for White test 14prob-value 0.985
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604 14.436[5.559] [5.517]
LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422[-5.831] [-5.813]
INV 0.076 0.083[3.035] [3.271]
FERTIL -1.203 -1.204[-7.859] [-7.905]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15 0.59
[2.324]
DFEMSCH15 -0.09
[-0.328]
EFW
DEFW
Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591N 90 90White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622d.f. for White test 14 20prob-value 0.985 0.076
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498[5.559] [5.517] [5.585]
LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892]
INV 0.076 0.083 0.081[3.035] [3.271] [3.309]
FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527
[2.324] [3.193]
DFEMSCH15 -0.09
[-0.328]
EFW
DEFW
Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596N 90 90 90White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317d.f. for White test 14 20 14prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720]
LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015]
INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898]
FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551
[2.324] [3.193] [2.963]
DFEMSCH15 -0.09
[-0.328]
EFW 0.599
[3.479]
DEFW
Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685N 90 90 90 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945 11.669[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720] [4.996]
LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729 -1.752[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015] [-8.007]
INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091 0.084[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898] [3.288]
FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093 -1.002[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971] [-7.251]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551 0.521
[2.324] [3.193] [2.963] [3.649]
DFEMSCH15 -0.09
[-0.328]
EFW 0.599 0.761
[3.479] [5.490]
DEFW 0.461
[3.616]Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685 0.726N 90 90 90 85 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94 38.83d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20 27prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016 0.066
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Explanatory variables:
Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945 11.669 13.611[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720] [4.996] [5.039]
LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729 -1.752 -1.423[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015] [-8.007] [-5.779]
INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091 0.084 0.104[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898] [3.288] [3.492]
FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093 -1.002 -1.152[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971] [-7.251] [-7.261]
DSCH15 0.531
[2.868]
DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551 0.521 0.469
[2.324] [3.193] [2.963] [3.649] [2.812]
DFEMSCH15 -0.09
[-0.328]
EFW 0.599 0.761
[3.479] [5.490]
DEFW 0.461 0.236
[3.616] [1.668]Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685 0.726 0.626N 90 90 90 85 85 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94 38.83 17.55d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20 27 20prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016 0.066 0.617
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.
[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]
Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]
-0.124[-0.062]
INV*EFW
-1.754[-3.549]
1.718
[3.143]
0.152
[0.604]Adjusted R-squared 0.186N 96White test (chi-square) 5.025d.f. for White test 9prob-value 0.832
Constant
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,
[9]
LOGGDP80
INV
FERTIL
EFW
DMALESCH15
DEFW
TROPICAR
POP100KM
LOGDIST
Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]
-0.124 17.202[-0.062] [5.195]
-1.67
[-6.449]
0.072
[2.879]INV*EFW
-1.229
[-7.564]
0.427
[2.472]
-1.754 -0.647[-3.549] [-1.513]
1.718 0.285
[3.143] [0.620]
0.152 -0.028
[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631N 96 84White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828d.f. for White test 9 35prob-value 0.832 0.341
Constant
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,
[9]
LOGGDP80
INV
FERTIL
EFW
DMALESCH15
DEFW
TROPICAR
POP100KM
LOGDIST
Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]
-0.124 17.202[-0.062] [5.195]
-1.67
[-6.449]
0.072
[2.879]INV*EFW
-1.229
[-7.564]
0.427
[2.472]
-1.754 -0.647[-3.549] [-1.513]
1.718 0.285
[3.143] [0.620]
0.152 -0.028
[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631N 96 84White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828d.f. for White test 9 35prob-value 0.832 0.341
Constant 12.748[4.550]
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,
[9]
LOGGDP80 -1.97
[-9.056]INV 0.088
[3.551]
FERTIL -0.913
[6.524]
EFW 0.811
[5.826]
DMALESCH15 0.317
[2.198]
DEFW 0.495
[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219
[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14
[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091
[0.552]
66.42254
0.119
0.77380
Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]
-0.124 17.202 13.675[-0.062] [5.195] [6.170]
-1.67 -1.988
[-6.449] [-9.459]
0.072 0.089
[2.879] [3.659]INV*EFW
-1.229 -0.926
[-7.564] [-6.951]
0.427 0.337
[2.472] [2.438]
0.797
[5.915]
0.513
[4.277]-1.754 -0.647 -1.098
[-3.549] [-1.513] [-3.695]
1.718 0.285
[3.143] [0.620]
0.152 -0.028
[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631 0.778N 96 84 80White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828 44.942d.f. for White test 9 35 35prob-value 0.832 0.341 0.121
Constant 12.748[4.550]
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,
[9]
LOGGDP80 -1.97
[-9.056]INV 0.088
[3.551]
FERTIL -0.913
[6.524]
EFW 0.811
[5.826]
DMALESCH15 0.317
[2.198]
DEFW 0.495
[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219
[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14
[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091
[0.552]
66.42254
0.119
0.77380
Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]
-0.124 17.202 13.675 15.877[-0.062] [5.195] [6.170] [7.923]
-1.67 -1.988 -1.991
[-6.449] [-9.459] [-9.492]
0.072 0.089
[2.879] [3.659]INV*EFW 0.0157
[3.679]
-1.229 -0.926 -0.937
[-7.564] [-6.951] [-7.122]
0.427 0.337 0.332
[2.472] [2.438] [2.399]
0.797 0.424
[5.915] [2.339]
0.513 0.513
[4.277] [4.280]
-1.754 -0.647 -1.098 -1.196[-3.549] [-1.513] [-3.695] [-4.006]
1.718 0.285
[3.143] [0.620]
0.152 -0.028
[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631 0.778 0.779N 96 84 80 80White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828 44.942 42.987d.f. for White test 9 35 35 35prob-value 0.832 0.341 0.121 0.166
Constant 12.748[4.550]
Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-
[9]
LOGGDP80 -1.97
[-9.056]INV 0.088
[3.551]
FERTIL -0.913
[6.524]
EFW 0.811
[5.826]
DMALESCH15 0.317
[2.198]
DEFW 0.495
[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219
[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14
[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091
[0.552]
66.42254
0.119
0.77380
CrecimientoEcon.
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–)
(Convergencia)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
FERTILITY 1960
166 Countries
Mean 5.46 Median 6.20 Maximum 8.00 Minimum 1.89 Std. Dev. 1.75
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FERTILITY 1999
192 Countries
Mean 3.25 Median 2.81 Maximum 7.28 Minimum 0.97 Std. Dev. 1.63
1.
Guatemala: 4.72
Bolivia: 4.02
Female Fertility Rates by Women's Years of Schooling in 9 Latin American Countries.
0 1-3 4-6 7-9 10+
Bolivia 5.1 6.2 6.4 5.3 4.2 2.8Brazil 3.7 6.7 5.2 3.4 2.8 2.2Colombia 3.3 5.6 4.5 3.6 2.5 1.8Dom. Rep. 3.8 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.5 2.6Ecuador 4.3 6.4 6.3 4.7 3.5 2.6El Salvador 4.4 6.0 5.2 3.9 3.5 2.5Guatemala 5.6 6.9 5.6 4.2 2.8 2.7Mexico 4.1 6.4 6.3 4.0 2.7 2.4Peru 4.5 7.4 6.1 4.6 3.7 2.5
6.4 5.6 4.2 3.2 2.5
Source: Castro Martín and Juárez (1995), Table 2, p. 55.
Years of SchoolingAll
Average (unweighted)
CrecimientoEcon.
CapitalHumano (+)
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2 4 6 8 10 12
Series: SCH95Sample 1 106Observations 92
Mean 5.979239Median 5.825000Maximum 11.89000Minimum 0.760000Std. Dev. 2.743981Skewness 0.127987Kurtosis 2.309570
Jarque-Bera 2.078497Probability 0.353720
Guatemala: 3.25 años
Bolivia: 5.31 años
CrecimientoEcon.
CapitalHumano (+)
INV (+)
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)
0
5
10
15
20
25
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Series: INVSample 1 106Observations 106
Mean 21.53192Median 21.22966Maximum 48.23973Minimum 7.515450Std. Dev. 6.513268Skewness 1.003033Kurtosis 5.690054
Jarque-Bera 49.73472Probability 0.000000
Guatemala: 13.9 %
Bolivia: 15.3 %
CrecimientoEcon.
CapitalHumano (+)
INV (+)
Lib. Econ.(+)
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
3 4 5 6 7 8
Series: EFWSample 1 106Observations 92
Mean 5.364377Median 5.257298Maximum 8.554979Minimum 3.186115Std. Dev. 1.147321Skewness 0.616282Kurtosis 3.055412
Jarque-Bera 5.835433Probability 0.054057
CrecimientoEcon.
CapitalHumano (+)
INV (+)
Lib. Econ.(+)
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)
Eficiencia
Incentivos
Tasa de Inversión vs. índice EFW, 92 países, 1980-99
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 2 4 6 8 10
EFW
INV
CrecimientoEcon.
CapitalHumano (+)
INV (+)
Lib. Econ.(+)
Fertilidad(–)
IngresoInicial (–)
Geografía(Sachs)
(Convergencia)
Eficiencia
Incentivos
Tasas de Crecimiento (%), PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99.
0
4
8
12
16
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8