$lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii...

54
eaisia siac 0i#IIislow $lHflM yDIJoq 3UASIT io 3f13 HHT WOT4)I YJJA3SI 3W OU TAHW :M$lOqH$I nomiH nnA £fl3V$! snA .o14 13qs nbhoW HD$IAHH5I DIMOMODH q UA3SIUfl JAMOITAM iinvA 11urI352sM OOI 8IO AM gbhdrnsD QQ1 iruA ni frnoh5l 3ilfl0n033 no ni1noD ii213vinU sidrnuloD th io1 bruqiq sw iqsq idT iol nsD oi Iuhisi 51B W .Q1 ! sM irnono33 Isnoi1i2nsIT bns niqo1vU 1MI r1i mo slsb cIi iftiw u nthivoiq i iqaq ii1T .nBii d31s1 Ids ioI oininoM oibuslD oi bns i1 k biqx noiniqo 'nA .inrn1vnI bris 3bslT 1snoisrri1nI iii msioiq th1s31 '5I3ff4 lo nsq .cbis5I 3imono33 lo us5wa 1snoiiaM di lo orti ion bns ioriius ,tti lo orIi is ol ion ix1 lo noii node .brnari z1dh 11A .snv$I nA bas no2FrIsH nnA d .QQI © 1ib13 ilul isdi b3bivolq noifrmq ii3ilqx iuodiiw bioup d am dqssisq owl bzx .3iuo rft oi nvi i iion © nthuIoni

Transcript of $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii...

Page 1: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

eaisia siac 0i#IIislow $lHflM

yDIJoq 3UASIT io 3f13 HHT WOT4)I YJJA3SI 3W OU TAHW :M$lOqH$I

nomiH nnA £fl3V$! snA

.o14 13qs nbhoW

HD$IAHH5I DIMOMODH q UA3SIUfl JAMOITAM iinvA 11urI352sM OOI

8IO AM gbhdrnsD QQ1 iruA

ni frnoh5l 3ilfl0n033 no ni1noD ii213vinU sidrnuloD th io1 bruqiq sw iqsq idT iol nsD oi Iuhisi 51B W .Q1 ! sM irnono33 Isnoi1i2nsIT bns niqo1vU

1MI r1i mo slsb cIi iftiw u nthivoiq i iqaq ii1T .nBii d31s1 Ids ioI oininoM oibuslD oi bns i1 k biqx noiniqo 'nA .inrn1vnI bris 3bslT 1snoisrri1nI iii msioiq th1s31 '5I3ff4 lo nsq .cbis5I 3imono33 lo us5wa 1snoiiaM di lo orti ion bns ioriius ,tti lo orIi is

ol ion ix1 lo noii node .brnari z1dh 11A .snv$I nA bas no2FrIsH nnA d .QQI © 1ib13 ilul isdi b3bivolq noifrmq ii3ilqx iuodiiw bioup d am dqssisq owl bzx

.3iuo rft oi nvi i iion © nthuIoni

Page 2: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

qs'1 nbhoW $13814 ?.QQI i€uuA

HUA$IT o 21'ar1a HuT VWOM)I YJJAH$1 3W OG TAHW :M$lOqH$l

T3AMTflA

13Y .vi21qmi i nnoi bsn lo i113 3d3 no ñ31sI niix3 lo buiinsm rIT

as d3ns anoiiup insnoqmi lo idmun s no IJflitO3 isb s b3rI5i ion 3vBd 212!m0fl033

,infni3vni iiib ni31o1 bits 3bJrli nwid sinil ,di tmo1i bsi lo r3sqmi ihsm iodsl

woir1 w isdw 1hs!3 01 lqm3ns w iqsq irti nI .diwoi bits 3bjrU nwi3d qicknoiisbi r1i bits

.rIiwoi bits i,hsm iois1 ,miohi birt nwi3d qidsnoiisI3i 3111 inods

lo iuasin uohsw nwi3d qiI1noiIs131 viiioq s nwoi1 3vsff aibuia nsm duor1i1A

biiuas3m ivn iaomls i 'oi1oq bsiT .nism5i &n3ldmq nisn 'nsm d1wo bits anciqo

d b3us1q ,is ibui nsm ,noiithbs iii .11ini as 113u2 -- 1o1s3thni uoivdo iom 3111 nku

.3vi2n31x3 31 i rmoi 3bsli bits 2i!1sm iodsl no 33n3b1v3 3ff!' .em3Idolq 3rli3mono33 uoh &rnoI5i 3b5n lo 2113 sw bits in3mo1qm3nu 3111 isdi isqqa ii isb 01 ibui 3111 no basfl

bits sw llsrn2 lsrIi 1i1idie2oq 3(11 uth w ,l3qRq t11 it! .llsm nx1 llrn 3v511

n diiw abu13no3 iqsq I1T .noiis1upi bitam iodsl 01 ub 315 anoq3i in3moIqm3

iscii 33n3bw3 iuO .2wofl innivni niio1 bits i3i1oq 3bzfl nwi3d sAni1 3(11 lo

.awoflni 1n3mi3vni ni sini ins uini d b3insqrno33s nd asd ririohi 3blfli

sn3v3M snA nothisH nnA 1nsfl bhoW 311T niwfl lo 100(132 isubsiO

WM 4ii2 H 8181 iiE13vinU sidmuloD Dci 1noinii1ssW lisH thU 1ô

VOO1 YT4 hoY w $IHflM bits

Page 3: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

3V1UJ33X3 loin3a 3no jE3' lazI ln3mnEq3b ii Ans8 bhoW 3rD lo noii 1flE131 £ nI

aiil moi1 .131qmo3 '1thfln323 aw ui '3i1oq 3bsil lo b31wonl mo ni1i wiv 3111 b1qx3

3d bluorf2 arioTl3 f131S3251 1&D ffrIOl3l 3bS11 lo 2133fl3 3111 luodE d3um o w3nA biiIs 3w 3v1133q213q

2n3sob iBril 3a3 3th i ii ¶1nt 2irD 21 3iIoq ni31q iom .iIio 3ibbE 01 b3ifiooHsm

V1111U03 b fft13w £ nibivoiq bs33b owl lasi 3111 ni armol3m ebsmi no bhsdm3 3Vsft a3flIflUoO lo

3125d laom 3111 13W2fl5 01 213113153231 31d5n3 bhiorla 3b31woml lo bod b3ir1umu33s aidT .33nth3qx3

Isin3msbnlJl 331111 no auanano £ b3rbc3I 3vsrf bluofla w won d msIu3irTriq nI .3b511 iuods anoila3IJp

br1o33 ¶3bsml ol qu nurt3qo lo asw bnl3 in3rfro1qm3 ol 21203 nLrl-tIorI2 r1i 315 1511w 3iiI .2311221

i&Iw 1Lnfl bnA 'a3imof1o38 n3qo iom d b3113q31 io ot b31351fl5 Ii 1 rn3rn1vni ni31o1 luods isriw

VdJwoi nui io1 bns 3i1oq 3bEi nw13d qir1anoi1s1m 3111 21

lo 2113q2 !uIfnsq Ia&I .2(102531 oWl iol trISlloqml 2i ff0131 3b513 ni alUura iodsl 10 3101 3rIT

3f1i Ii hs1u3insq b31oni 3d 30(1(153 231111331) 35W 1sm biqsm bns .

\n5voq rjith in3mo1qm3nu

anonslu3l 10 anoilufllani i1msm modsi ui ansrl3 bno33 .armol3l 3111 0 !1i1idJnis1au2 '13V 3(13 n31531r13

Isnoiliansil 3(11 ui nsth In3biv3 310(11 21113 21 31311W0M .rrnol3l b3aoqomq E to 3113 ol 15313113 3d 'E(T1

31E1 3(13 bns li1idom modsi lo A351 3111 01311w ,noinU 13ivo 13miol orli bni 3qmuH nmoas3 lo aoirnonoo

.ffrIoIom 3b513 01 ln3rmboqmI 1nsiIirui i i mo3oa 3ilduq odi lo oi 3S1UO3fl3 ol nood asii inornlaij1bs lo 23203 IILII-flofla 3(11 31B1V3115 qlorl 03 nofluIo2 Isirisq 3110

rinolom obsn lo i3sqmi oth ai isrlw ,iami1 .bIol-owl 3m bism 21113 ni 20IJ21 ir1T momiaovni 33311b niomo1

aoob mo wo113uo rn3rnIa3vni ol b531 233)1mm b31331o1q 2231 ob 1E1u3iflEq iii 1fl3ffl323VII1 niomoi no

aao3omq noiliansil 3111 0253 qbrl aioAsm '3iIoq 1153 ,bno33 inofnl2ovni won 13iifli '11s1fl3s noilssilsiodil

Page 4: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

UJ1LJ(G uq LOMI4J MPGLG ILJGLG LC GM bLcA!on 2U1q1C2—HJ bwcrijV OU flJC IIIJLCG GMCCU

np]GCL u (p12 bbcL MG G[ on to LGAIGM (pG GMGUG OU 1G LGJf1iOtJ2pib pcccu ii.qc LGOUJJ C(OL

tI2qc bopcA ponjq t bcicu (12 ILOW usyus 2MGGb1U 2tcwcut poni C1GL COli 1Jfl2 OU (PG

J,jot UCCG22L!jA 1T( IJ G2UJG1J( o MJJ MG qo jcuoti--uq Mt MG qo U01 JCIJ0IA--pOfl1 (JIG GCC(2 OJ

DOG2 qm tujbjA tpt tpc oijpoqoc Mi2qow ou pc JcucJ o rLiqc LGJOLW ponjq pc LGAGL2G

uq gGUGJI (io) OL HLLOU (o14pcouJJu)) Azcq wIxcq Lc2np2

qicuic iu ipcc ooq ;t LGCGUt cwbiucj cjoi o dnuiiA rpi LcjiiOu2prb (oL cxuib1c FCMUG

LOM1 i bLocc(Jou GUCOflLG IUAC2ILJJGU( JIJ Lc2GLCJI-UJ(cIJ2TAG 2GCLOL2 OL COJ1IJfL!G2 M1JJ coI.ubLtiAc

uq Hc!bwsu (j j) poor bowi (0 (JJG OLGPC&J boipijuA fJI91 JIJGLACUUOIJ UI LLJG conjq L2C

At b1 i CLG(0L o pGG usoqcj qcuic qrniL bbpcpiiitX o- iuq LOll$JI QLO22WU

t9LTJ2 wtccj OJ AEB' MG conq JJ1AG GUGL(G 21X P1IPOU qoJJn2 iu cxi. bLoi2 10L fl2 rT(OUJj(GL2

dnuujc2 flJG2G UJOcJGJ2 tO JOM ip i bLoIccliou O (JIG ffJfO 1Uqn2L? 1'T JICGIJ iubjcuicur;q iJILOflJJ

IJJfLJCCI2 o 2P1U bLoU tOML2 JIOWG juir r LGCGIJ( b1bcL pX 9cu.A F rn2oJm uq J,;2 (J2)

JJJGOLG1JC1 woqGJ2 oi ILnGIC tiqc bojic) ncai p9 uiou iu rn rnrcucuru ni opobop2c

potp rJJGOLGfJCJ uq cuJbiL!cJ MOLjC JJ(G JOL GXUJbJG (JIG 12211G o LqG bopcA uq JO1J LfIIJ LOft(jJ

flUfI2fl Ofl( (LqG boiicA pOMG/GL T2 (JIf( it COU(IIJUG2 (0 GIJGLS(G qcprc qc2bi(c u GUOLUJOfl2 onuyc oj

JJJG tObiC2 qqccq pA ¶cqcuJic LG2GLCJIGL2 LC JLGdflGU(JA 1JGAGL GIJ(ILGJA icopcq' jpt

qcjintic porr MJI( jciuq o boJJcic2 jcq to tpc pct conuii.) bcLouLJmcc

2u1q1c2 ,ipicp pic pGGU cowbjcrcq Oh (JiG J1IJJCG2 PGUAGCIJ (LqG iiq LOMqJ CIJ MG IJOIA 2A 2OUJC(JIJU

bGLOLUrnIJCG wc2nLcq !U tCLIJJ2 OJ G1(JJGL bLoqncuAiA o beL cbit L0/i4p B2G Oh (JIG 05GU2 0

flJ1iIJJtGjA OflL WO2( bLc22iu COIJCGLIJ 12 (0 G2(J12JI JPJ!G PG(MGGU (LqC bopcic uq JOUR hill

UJXJW1SG (pG J1J2 JLO1JJ JUCOW1U JOLG!lJ 1UAG2tUJGU(

R2 J!PCL!JL1U LGI1J(10IJ2 LCLllJ OLC11J UJAG2IUJGU(S yuq JIOM ejionjq bopcic2 pe qc2rucq to

Page 5: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

LCJ1IAC bLIcc O15CU IJOI JtiJpJC JJOMCACL W91JA OIPCL bLoxJc LC OIJCIJ rI2Cq iurCq

1L!TJ dno2 qici.cut GxcjJuc L1C2 OL miboi uq cxbo uq npiqic 2IUCC IIJ10L1JrnUOU OH

DILGCI bLice couJbLi2ou2 Nonq UJCOLbOL1C qic ruJbc1 oi qic A91JO(12 bopclc2 ijrnt icct qouiciic bucc2:

iqc WGflLC o qic Ewbm[ oj iqc bojic? b1.UcnjLjA in pc 2CUCC O qowc2liC bo1icA qioi.ouw

bLICC cowbuou2 CLIACCU ooq ojq w qowcric rnq iutcurnuouj UJLKCL2 conjq bLoAIqc 911

C1/ACClJ UCI11Lj TU/A&L oLicuicq, uq cxbo-biowouu LGIUJC

AGLC uq Aer IIJICLACIJC iu bccijc 2CCtOL y ooq WCflLC oj ILqC bojicA onjq cbu1Lc CLCHCC2

bLoqncriou qJLonp iuVLnwGur 2cicp 9 cxbo np2iqic2 i q20 boipjc JOL LC1UJC 10 C UCI1L9j OH

oucuicq CCOUOUJ? wA UO1 pC UCI11LJ Hi 1JJI 2C1J2C b914icnjLj? !I !1 2flJ2 IUCCUIEAC2 EU IAOL O1 GXbOLj

iuibou 2fTp2LiUlliOu lJq CaLUIU rirni Oj OLCiU C)CCSUG qnonp ccboI.2 C1CLI? pIp CXb014

IJCA1LjI1A J.4Cf11Lj112 WCUJ2 wCcU1iAG LC UCI11LJ PCI/ACCU 2AIU null O1 OLC!IJ CXC91JC qn.orip

JJJC couccb o obcuuc22 bbicq 10 1LC bopcA1 corrjq pe AuouAwon MEIP Ipe iqC o

sici jpJqG jojciG uuq pou nu eoigp

jj coucjnqc uq ci ioup u cucjr 1OL jL1CL LC2CLcp

2CCITOU ffl Cfl22C OLCIU IUAC2tUJCUL LC2bOU2C 10 ip;LSj1slU IL91jC 913q iuACUJJCUt coqc 2;crlou

CACLJ cxbjuuon2 0L lG uJjj cInbJoXwcul uq onlbcu LC2bOuC 10 JLC CUG2 IU 1L1jJ 911q drro

CUJbjOAJJJCIJI LC2b0U2C to R1C LCOLUF bOCfT2iU iu b1.1icnjL OH JACXICO suq NOL0CC0 MC CXbjOLC

Lcjfriou2pb PCIMCCU 1LqG bojJc!c bwqncLiAilA 911q jOU HiLl LOMF 2CCUOU J CXIJJ1UC 1C MC uq

jpC LcwrnqcL o pc bbcL i OLU1SC OJJO/A2 2CCUOU j CC91JJIUC ipe ciiqcucc OH JC

LCC91CJJ 11 lC JjZJCC CUAGGU 1LJC 91Jq LOMjJ JJOMCACL MC OCfT EU JLC b1.1 ou bLCA!0n2 /AOLJC

OLCiU EUAC1IIICIJ1 UOM iuq iLqc LCIOLuJ—MC nbbjcujCu1 iuccqotij ciiqcucc ME1 UClA CWb1LJCj

Page 6: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

2GG OL c9uJbjc (1)

t1WG--Jg--JCL WUA COflIJILJC2 pq JLcq? wpiccq ou cowbLcpcu2iAc tLqC LCOUJJ2 JC

COf1IJ1L? 2O11LC o dnoi iuq ULI 1UOLIJJUOU IJ uII4C.LVD 9i92CC II4JJCp COJJGCGq i ouc boiu !U

MjJ? UO fl2G JG? qILGC UJ9211L2 2fTC 92 2LIIJ2 OL dno OJ LC92011 12 J9 qJc OU CL022-

qccc O ObCIJUC22 0L 1JJO( COflIJCLIC2 MJqJ wrcp 2r1p1cCfAc couiqcucc,,

9CYJJOMC2 1JSt iLJ ¶JGUCG O qILCc W92HLG2 O p9LLicL2 i tijj pe iuJbo22ipc o qccuuiuc qic

p91c pJp LJI 9uq dno2 OL OEi UJJbOU bcucpiow LU P!2 OJU9J b9bcL ['c9UJGL (Jg)

O1PL M0Lq2 iI ' UJL llJ211LC 2flC2? tJJ9 9 COrIIJILX 12 LCJ9PACJ?t obcu qJi2 conuu.? i jo jccA jo

i IImCL2cJX LJ91cq LO O[GL WC92flLC2 o obcuuc2 ncp iuthoi.r bcucL9L1ou dno2 9IJq WLUJ2 LU

jionp qJi2 9bbLo9cp ! drn biowini bLJrCPCU (jpi.qJcowiu) 2OM2 fJJ9f J'9UJLI2 ObcUUc22 WG92J1LC

1J92 n2cq r'ØWCL2 IJJC92TTL £0 2JOM 9 bo2rWG 9uq 29U21iC9jJ? uijciui uub9c oI obcuuc22 OU LOtAF

cxcu io Mplcp 9W9J qcAJ9rc2 L0W qsc b9UcLu o Lq; bLcqicicq pA ivc uJoqc (i)uq iojmuc o Lqc ! 92CUCC oj bLoccuow 91JJGL qicU UJC92ITLG2 obcnuc224, 9 miciou o, qic

VUOJCL 9bbLo9cIr IutLoqnccq pA f'C9IJJCL (jgy 1T2C2 JCOLUC9J woqc o bLcqc qic b9gcw

2I1CJJ 92 COflUtL)

qcAi9tIou o cjn 111.ow bLcqictcq 1L9C UOM2 ( iii 2ALdnu uq CPGUGLA (io)) p92Gq OU A9L!9P1G2

OL cxrwb,ce ducL9JJA JJJAG 2W9JIGL L9qc 2JJ9LG2 ouc IwbLo/cuJcu OACL JT2 9bbLo9cp !2 O fT2 qJG

boi!cA OqiCL 1,9COL2 21TC 2 COIILgLA 21 OL JOLCiIJ C9bk9I !IJ1JOM2 9J20 9JCC fL9qC J9LC COflUP4C2

OUG bLopJcw ?iifp rp!2 bbLoscp JJO!/cAcL 12 1P9 fL9C 110M2 9LG 9 pC2 91J UJbGLjCC1 bLoxA OL

bo2iI!AG 9220C191!OU MUp CDb LOMJ CAGU 9GL COIULOJ1UJ OL O1CL 9C1OL2 2f1C 92 C9b!9j OL J9OL

cxboz. 9 29LC o CDb oi. pc LOMqi L9G2 oj iujbol42 9uq cxbo O21 o, qJG2G WG92flLG2 2JJOM 9

jjic 2RJJbJc2 winL o £L9G OL!GIJ9UOU 9LG 92C Oh 9CUT91 1L9JC U0M2 2fICJJ 92 ruJboL bJrr2

Page 7: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

rüiw b3nidmo3 3d n r1ifEw ,a3un3v3l u1iii no noiism-iolni 133ILo (IMI) bnu1 '(I3noM Isnoii&nnI

nworf ,vrf aii I13v 13v3woH .Thi3 3vi 3T13 IIE tIu3I oJ 2wofl rloqx3 10 tioqmi no LiEb

i alIfT .Lw al iAsrn '3i1oq d i 213v31 1Eu1 i1i brIE 51IJE3(I 3rli nwd qirlanoilEbi 3th

b&1 IqrrIsx3 io ,Iixsi8 .noilqirnoo brIE anoirqm3x3 b3iIai1 nibubni .aioi1 o noilEnidmo3 £ ol 3ub

b3i3vE enoqmi 'd b3bivib anoi11!o3 Thisi 3ud aO8Q1-birn 3rft Lxi 1n3313q O 1o 11iii b33EIai& 31rI3E

bnuoiz

3v&f aisinEcf Iuiisi-non 3B3 laom ru .lri3l3Thb 'I1rfik ai m3ldolq 3111 ,aoilirIuo3 Ithlaubni 10q

aTihEl b noi1E1g rfguorfllA .noil33lolq b rn3mlnlani iEhiqoq laom 311i au allilEl b33sIcpl 11thnaa

.lhJ3iflib xom nv ai noii3lo1q sioup lo aiuazm nisis 3ilsm3Ido1q ai x3bni IIsl3vo ns olni

aiuasrn 3adT .ai3insd Thisirxon lo aifl 3111 iuasrn 03 beau 'L1s3iqJ u oiisi E13VO3 11s3iqT

rft as oilsi gsmvo &fi 315iu3[SQ ol ai rbsoqqs laift 3rlT .asw ln31i1ib owx 0 3110 iii bzLu31s 515

Iaom 3bu13x3 isril 2i3inEd 3V1133T13 isuli arism fI3ifiW 213rnEd 3bsii 'd b3wvo3 atioqmi Io 3sin3313q

lsib a3no3ls3 l3LJboiq lo sin3313q 3111 luqmo3 ol ai iiasoiqqs bno 3rIT ldi3w 3111i1 3vio31 aJ-!oqm

rbirlw ol ln3x3 1i no noirrno1ni on avi 13v3wof1 jbsoiqqs airlT .51ni1 rxoqmi ol 133[dua 315

oiisi Ei3O3 3111 .awofl 3b511 no asioup nixE131 1o 1sqmi 3111 311JE3ffl w ni ion nibnid 315 asloup

.333ft3 li3th siuazm 3onnz iud aix 3bui1 01 i3inEd 3sth a)a3ua 'Ino

aimrrw lo Aiow 3th 'd b3JsliIbsl aiuasm b3asd-3311q niau thwoi bni 3b511 no &nsa551

3vsrI aiuasm lo aqi 3a3f13 no b3asd a3ibul •ais lin3v3a lasI 3111 ni binni asrf (88Q1) noa3H bns

ol ariolh 3n31 siom a3r11 3Y E.r1lwoi brus 3b511 n35w13d qir1anoiuuI31 3V11i20q £ bnuot IIs13n3

brus aimmu 3fIT agruirno3rlorla iosm 1s13va 3v&1 thwoi 3imono33 no nnqo lo l3sqmi 3rfi h1r13bi

33 rmqo lo -iojibnj iorlio brm iuim 3Vf3E111I1ifflb 3f11 n33wbd qirknoinIn rfi lo noiuDib (CIifnoxIfloi) n3cbxilq

.(IQQI) isiloG brIE (Q!) ucJ bni cILcrl8 ,(IQQI) ons

Page 8: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

lo i 1i iol b13I1o nd 3on v&! sflb b--si Iqme 1!Em 'd buIq i isb noiH

3W 3th no eisr1qm3 nz oi b31 zrI fl3iflw ioi1 300 3d 'zm iilT 'nrn vo 3iflnuo3 *ismrbn3d

iol Ioflno3 ol 3Idia2oqfn ii 31cm 23ib1JJ noii3-o13 3I1J i3v3woH .nohEmui foil 2-013 lo

ivo b-rIu33o 3v&t rl3iftw 3nEd lnstioqmi 3d1 31oni o2L bn 233031311ib uiq-'nuo b3v-l3adonu

b l3sqrth Ii 3InEln3aib lonn 2nothEqmo3 iiq !noilsrrI3tni noiibb nI vUnuo3 3fli ioI mul

3bEIl moil (2boo b3tloqmi iol 21311flSf13 grni3)!lEm 3ililoqoiIo fi3U) norJa3h3qrnx 13A1&n 3iJ3mob

anoiln3vl3irn 3i1oq

.ktoiO t c1°t i'Y o be11-o lo iuam ln3bnsq8bni on lsth ln3biv3 3d b1uofL ii w3iv31 biid if1l no bs8 auoivdo l2om 3d1 niii b3ilsas&n 133fl i 3iIoq 3b1T .atn3ldolq IEioIoboth3m lo r1 i "3nnqo'

ni wfih1 3r11 Aooh3vo ol 3ldia2oq 3d Idgim ii iiio 10 .13rrzEd Y1h-non bnE Thi a d3ue--1oi&ibni

nv/l3d qidanoilE!31 vilioq iaudoi 3fftE2 3th bnxiol aibtn iom ii 1um 'zi1oq 3b1l gni1ix3

hn3liano3 £ bnil bib ibul ihE3 3rIi In lom llguoth!E niH .diwoi nut noI bnE 3bit ol qu nin3qo

-Ilnuo3-o1 tliod 3bu13ni ir1T Jon ob 3ibu1 3f13331 310ffl di lo \.flfff1 qifIanoi3s131 3viii2oq

30 ffl6X3 16(11 3ibu1 'Cli0003 Isubivibni a IIsw as d1wo uo briE i3i1oq 3b611 lo WoahEqmo3

.noiiil3qmo3 IEnoufim3ini lo 3lIJlEn 3th briE rhwoi ivii3ubrnq 1E10133133fli

bn6 3niv&I i diwoi qUO burn i3iIoq 3b611 lo 3ibIfl ln31 b31i3 Iin3up31i iom 3rfi lo 300

03V3 10 iaudoi on boil iorIius 3(11 3i3i1oq 3b613 lo iuasm 1n31&uuib nob i tIrI gniU .(QI) ibno5l

3b611 lo i1J2S3ffl 1131ff .r11woi nun noI briE 3b611 01 qu nin3qo n33w13d qirknoin131 3vilioq 303121 2003

briE 3m1JIov 3bsfl .rIoil33lolq lo x3bni 3161 3fISf13X3 1651 21EI1oU rnuimslq 1Aism 1361d &13 3buI3ni

bns 1n3rfflvni n33w13d qirl200iisbl 3vili2oq 12udo1 6 bnil ob th IY .13rnIi vd b3liqmo3 233ibn1 owl

ln3mi23vni n33w33d noiiEbno3 3rlT .x3bni i3rri63J 3(11 brr6 1n3f11123vn1 nwid 213 113w 213 ,siEr12 3b613

b3Qnfirln3 r1uoid1 31613qo \6 frflOl3l 3b611 lo aI3fl3 [6i3113n3d 3(11 113(11 3bubfIo3 01 103(11 2b631 3b613 briE

V

Page 9: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

8

bLoqncrJAiCA IC 12 hOC 211LbLI2IU 2P1C bLcqic1pJc COLLCJCJOU2 AC UOC cuJGLq,,

I'-' AJGM OI tJJ qi/G12c Wpif1OfT 1jJCOLG1iCI J1CGLU1LC Oil tG PGCMCCLI fU1CG uq

qcAGob!u COIIUCL1G iuq coucjnqc rpc ojjoMiu:

nJJpiflOn2 LC2f1p2 IOflb (f) LAIM2 IJfflJJPCL o pia OMU uq OIIJCL flqJG OL qosu

rriu woi.c 2obJJi21iCfrcq 'COUOIJJCCLIC IGcpuidnc2 fuq IJJ(ICP PGUCL q tpu bLcAioi-12 MOLJC XrGJq

EAGIJ CJJC WO2 LCCCUL GUOLI2 CO GUJ!IJC 1pC J1IJJCC2 pciiccu CLCC LCIIJJC uq bLoqr1cuAA LOM1J

OL P0M1IJ Pi [1 12 uccc2LiJA pcUCL ou WelL ccomu iirnu 12 [piibou 2nper!wrou],

AJplc. JJJ Lf1WCUL Oil Aiu2 Uuq mJoAiou bLoMqc jc qJu couibc1[!u cc

CCOUOUJIC2 oi ecijc uq x cijjcicucA LG brnipc1 cwbiuci 2nbbot4 IOL qJeW I UO

yjrponp c LfTWCUf2 OL Cpc rrccce o c Eb [ExboI4 bLowotloul 21LscA jcq ou

(lo8) MLJC2 qmt:

OUCUC1iOU qo uo LACJ1 2A2fcwC!c qjcLcucc UI bLoqfTciiAiU LOM11J iu W1JITCUILIIJ•• BPM!

cowbLi2ou O LO1J CCOL bLoqncuAuA LOMW IJJOU COflUCLIC2 bnL2niu qicLcut wCcuJlouJ rLqc

CXJUJJUc WC LGI1ioupib G1MGU bLoqrTcwA uq obcuuc io i.qc bC (Jgg) bou orr

jpc cATqcucc 12 u0 uA woLc coucjn2iAc OL conuuA 2mqic Mpicp qjcq W!CLO qw o

JM1A CJJC JC W2flLG O[ CLKJG bopcA

1OAC ipe ['cUJCL TUqicG ILG qiCnJC O !UCcthLc iii liu o bLCpcCt,2 cLiidnc' uq iqc JLC 9LC UO

LG2OI1LCG CCffluJfrJCiOU JU[Glq O CJJLO1TP woLe qIjcicut JJoCiJoIi OI LC2O11LCC ACI 92 MC qicnncq

Page 10: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

bns bBhi 01 qu ninqo nwid qiri&ioi1s131 iudoi ni'thnbi thiw bJEi3oa1 m3Ido1q dT

aqi1 th i&fi mixxicq 3&twrno i ii .sib 2U niu bis,iulli d n rIiwoi 1ivii3ubo1q

nd ion vzr1 rIinuo3 niqobvb iol 1ivii3ubo1q bnfi bsfl nwi3d 2Ini1 nimx fl3ifIW 2ibu1 lo

a) iiviiauboq lo in&Iirn-ii3b i1i no rI33e31 2iflnuo3 1shiubrii 11 iii .ith U iol b33ubo1qi

idl Ioi IEiin1oq 'ns iongi 1fiqi 1((QI) rbiIiiO 11n331 iom bni (1 8Q1) no2L*1 cJ bwivi bn d31i n33wid qirlanoiiEl3l th thmx orfw (Q1) 131fIo i nouqx nO .3i1oq biii

ith abnfl 113d32 iY .1Oi3 gnhui1unsm U 1i ni noiiiiqrno3 1EnoiiErn1r1i bilE iiviim rnrnqobv3b

.ainibnqx 1nrnqo13vb bilE fI3iE31 ifi IIE1 B 01 bI noiiiiqrno rloqrni b13ni niri florf th ru

thu thwoig iivii3ubo1q bn 1nmqoIvb bns d31i.2i r13Wi8d lniI gnoii bnfI ibiii us i2omIE oni

£ btuI aob 3d n1n rnno1 3111 13v0 .3nuIo3b 'iivii3ubo1q £ 01 b31 rloini3qmo3 rioqmi 310ffl i&ü

2i noilsI5rIo3 sf11 irud iivi13E in3mqol3v3b bnz r131s1 bas afloqmi nw13d AniI viiioq Asw

ifIE3fiiflifli 'IIs3iiifl1

tuoqfnl .r11woi iivi33ubrnq bris oiLoq 3b513 nwi3d gsIni1 iiib ioIqx on ob 1313d

lo bv3l 3111 no i3Eqmi ii r1uoith 1i331ibni 10 bsiani 1i331ib '1ivi33ubo1q iTth bhJo3 noiihoqmo3

d 1ivii3uboq 33115f1rI3 bhJO3 3b511 01 qu rnnqo 1o3Ib nI .ln3mqol3v3b bru d3153231 no iuiibnqx

3111 3lolqx3 3W oIonII331 wn bodm3 ll3idw a3ubo1q 01 nisini 'id bns noiiii3qmo3 niis1

b3dri3a3b rI3solqqs nu niu 3JEia b3liriU 3111 ill '1ivii3ubo1q bilE 3bEii nwid &ii1 331ib B lo 'ii1idioq

i 3rnhl is i 1o133du gnimi3shinsrrl 1iib iuiol 113133 iol noii3nuI noii3uborq b3iliborn A .(QQI) noi11EH ru

:'d nvig i

*utD + (\tD X + V\M + tt + I%fl + X + cX =

voxw3 x + woxw ?x + + + x + cwx x +

NIVt4i01 +

Page 11: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

JO

J22OCi91Gq M1[JI JOMGL bLoqncutL[A LOM[JJ BIG LG211J[2 9J20 2JJ0M [JI91 2GC[0L2 GXbO2Gq 10 1U1CU19U0U91

cjJ9IJG2 JJJG LG211JI2 iii (0lflhJJU OUG 2flG2[ [JJ91 LG91GL iwbo 9nq cxbo 9C[IAJIA M1[JIIU 9 2GC[OL 9LG

N4JIJG IU COJUIU [MO OUJI 9Uq 9LG ilJCJIlqGq lii [JIG G2L1UJ91iOU--9JJOM!1J 112 10 GXJIJJ1JJG OU 1111J

IJI9IGLI9J iubn[2 (14onL-qJi[ 2C[0L9J bLoqncGL bLicG2 9LG 112G[J u2[G9q) COJUUJJJ OUG LGbOLL2 [JIG 91J11119J q9w

G21UJJ91G2 ft4JJCJI qo IJOI q11L J9L C9B9CIIA flhijls91IOU OL GIJJbIOA W91GL19J-2bGCILJC bLicG GJJ9[OL2 J0L

9uq }3Q 2pOIlJq JIG bo2j[i/\c JJJG G2[LUJ9[IOU LG2IIJ[2 9LG LGbOL[Gq iu J9JIJG J flJG UL2[ [MO COJ11UIIJ2 bLC2GUL

j obcuiu nb 10 a9q1 12 9220C19[Gq Mi[JJ pIJJGL bLoqrrnuAi[A LOM[JJ [JJGU [JIG COGWC!G1J12 OIl 83

ELU9JTA JçfJ 12 [JGUG 92 [JIG 2JJ9LG O [JIG 2GC[OL2 J9OL IOLCC MJI1CJI 12 COuIbO2cq O 1IIJWiL9IJ[2

O[ flU1OU!9[iOU OL 9JJ MOLrGL2 MpiJG flI4K)W JAG2 [pG UUIOULS91IOIJ L9IG OL bLoqnc[iou MOLJ(GL2 oujA

922OC191Gq M1[JJ JOMGL IJJ9LJ(-flb2 jMO COU[LOJ2 9LG iucjriqq IOL 11111011 9C[JAJ[A 111.410W] WG9211LG2 [JIG L9[G

115[GL9C[1011 [GU1J2 B uq \3 WG92fILC [JIG GX[GIJ[ [0 MJJICJJ IUJI)OLI COUJbG[i[1OU 91J[J GXbOL[ OLIGU[9[JOU 9LG

LG2G9LCJI 911[J qGAcJobmGu[ GXbGUqi[11LG2 92 9 2P9LG oi 29JG2 9LG JEUJCG 10 bLoqnc[IAIIA IUCLG92G2 JJJG

'J% 9Uq \/ IJJG92IILG [JIG GX[GIJ[ [0 MJIICJI IUJbOL[ COWbG[i[IOU GXbOL[ 2JI9LG2 9uq

UJC92IILG2 LGUILJJ2 [0 2C9JG (9 A9JIIG OJ OIJG M0flJ[J iUqiC9[c COU2WIJ( LGWLII2 10 2C9jG) JJJG COGIJJCJGIJI2 OIl

JJJC GX[GU[ 10 MJIICJJ [JIG COGWCIGIJI 81 GXCGC[J2 (JUlIA 12 9 WGS2fILG O1 IJJ9LJ(G[ boMGL Mp!JG B

(Too3)

pA vpoq (JJ) BIG I�VD A9L19pJG 12 I9JCCIJ jL0W [JIG 112 CGU2IJ2 BflLC9fl 92 woqiGq pA Kowlui

GxbGuqTutLG2) 9LG I9JCGIJ LOW [G 1.48E1� [J9I992G 9fI1JJGU[Gq [0 1UCJJICJG [L9CJG 9U[J J9POL UJ9LJCG[ A9U9JG2

Jubfr[ qiq 1101 9[IGC[ 9IJA 0[ [JIG LG2ITJI2 fJj [JIG A9LI9JIJG2 GXCGb[ 1�14D (LG2G9LCJI 9-uq qGAGJ0bWGU[

9LG IJJG92ITLG[J JJGLG in JJOI1L2 9qqi[ioU9J 2bGCijJC9[iO1J2 fI2IXI UIIWJICL2 O] MOLJCGL2 92 [JIG WG92JILG Oi J9OL

2GCLOL-2bGC1UC LG9J Ofl[bfl[ J9pOL IJI9IGL19J UJBfI[2 GIJGLA coumnb1joue 9uq c9bu9J 2IOCJC ['9pOL Wbf112

FOMGL C92G A9LI9PIG2 ) 9Uq y 9LG Gdfl9j [0 3J (jiy 91Jj 'U } I1b £ 91J[J 9LG

Page 12: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

TT

JØ 10 CJCflJ1C (0IJJ JC(0L bLoqnc(JAIIA L0M1JJ (Ibbo) 10L jAjCX!CO bLIoL 10 (jIG (LG LGI0U1J (T4-)

bLoqncuAuA IJq 1LqG LGtOUIJ AC1JPJC2 IJq /Ai1UPCLCU (J3) fl2C bJu1-IGACJ qf OL 1ô84 1jILO11JJ

WG2flLG2 o bojtc?--bLoAqG ?G ¶1UOJGL 1flfl2LL11OU OI (JIG Gjfl2iIC 1JU)LC 0j (JIG LCJ(10UjJib PUCU

UOMCAGL 2CACLj LGCCIJ( W1q1C2 OIl AIGX1CO--MpiCp II2C JIOIJJ 1LC 2jISLG2 2 MCJJ 2 1&L!2 uq dnow

III f q ccu pc JULIprTGq o (JIG 1C1 1JI1 1LC 2JILC2 TLG u iuibcqccr WC2fTLG OL 1LC bo[!cA

2OWC WJJJI LfIG CJJ1I IpG LJJG UUJLG O1 (JIG 220C!1iOU C1MGGU LLqG uq bLoqnc1/A L0M(JI

01 IJJC2G 7J1CLLH1(rAG bbLocpG2 AJGJq 2HJJ!JL LC211112

1LG AL1pJC2 HI q1IGLGIJCC iLrfGq o uq rr2ru IJIJUJPCL O MOLJ(CL2 HJ21GS OI JJOITL2 MOLJCCQ VII

Gxcjnqfu LG2GLCjI uq qcAGJobwCui GXbCUqIUJLC2 (Mplcp conjq JIG C0LLGjS1G MiflI 1LqC 2[JLC2) qcnnu

cxbcuqirrn.c OU LC2GILC ¶fllq qGAGjObUJGUU MG Sj20 GXbGLIuJCUGq MIIJJ OIJJCL 2bCC1jC0IR--2flCp 2

JJIIJ BIG 0IJj? C10L MJ!CjJ 12 b021(IACJA mq C0U212(GU(JA 22OC11Cq M1(p bLOqIICIT/ A L0M(JJ J2

2!1JiLjCU1 220c (1011 PG(MGGU IWbOL( cowbculiou uq bLoqncpAJQ L0M1JJ JU G1(JJGL (JIG 2jJOL( OL (JIG jou

MG q1fl21 OL cbciO rTrijiiou uq (12C iJIG bbLobu(G (JGU(OL IOL urn(GLJJ iubci IJJCLG 2 U0

JLIJG IrnWLG 0 (JJC2G LGITj 12 C}GLjA !JJI12(L(Cq pA IJIC C2IIIJ(G2 LGbOL(Cq HI C0j1IUJIJ (JJLGC uq IpIIL R

(j) JjUJU2 011 (JiG I!IJrG2 PGIMGGU g uq D ;xbCIJqIUTLG2 uq iuiboLl coujbCupou HOMGACL1 (JIG

!2 220Ci1Cq M1(Ji 1UCLG21U bloqncpn(A LOM( OAGL (JIG 1ou IJ1U JJIG2G LC2flJI2 LC 2flJJ11L 10 2CPGLCLI2

OUG &uq j//0 MG corijq coucjrTqc ijrnt iuCurnu0ui cowbGl!t!ou JG(J2 (0 2JJOU mu bLoqnc11AA (JGC!!UC2 JIlIl

L0MIJJ 1JIJIOflJJ (JIG C0GJCIGU1 12 1101 21!JJUCU( 9 (JIG bcLcCu( JGACJ bLOW (JIG GMC1JCG HI COJ(1W132

bLoqncuA 1UCLC2G2 OAGL (JIG !OIJ LfJU EXhOLI C(iAi(A 12 O bo2AcJA 220CiIGq t,iip bLoqncJAJ(A

AGI iJ MG (I1LIJ 10 COJfJILJIJ (M0 MG uq IJJ1 LG(GL HJJbOL( COUJbGUJIOU 2 9220CS(Gq MJ(JJ

GXbGIJq1UJLC2 uq pipcL JILG o mJmTLW(2 !IJ (JIG JiIJIOL OLCG

bo2!UACJA uq 2irnucIJrIA I220C11Gq M1(JJ pipGL bLoqncliAi(A L0MIJI LG LG2GLCJJ ruq qGAGJObWGUI

cowbGf 1(1011 cxbcLicucGq I1J1LICU1JA JOMGL WLJ(f1b2 o bucc OACL WfLThU(J C02( BIG OIJJX LCIOI2

Page 13: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

'5

. 2 OL cwb1c HLL!OU (oL1pcOwnJ HO (iogxY vnJ uq '-pii (To iq K111321 A49UU

LUMf G1JCOflL9C cof1WLiG co obcu nb LU LL9qG MpiG WOLC obcu GCOUOW!C2 9LG 9J20 WOLG IqCGjA LU LO/I

jpc Giqcucc o quc 9bbc9L2 10 2flG2L 11J91 c9n29JJLA Lfl112 lu Of qiLcciou2: JJ1JJ L91G2 0

iqcuLJA LJJG C9fl29J LGJ91iO!JqJib WICCU 0Db L0MLJJ 9uq LOMqi EU GXb0142 01. iwbot2 JJ9/IC p9q wrxcq

ouc o bio 11J12 !22flC !2 LU 9bb1A 219U9L c91129111A 1C2L2 2IJ1LUJG2 IP9L IJ9AG LLICq 10

bLofecLioui2w O LJJC j ôoO'

1u1bo142 L02G pGJU1Jiu MIIJJ IjJG 2IGGj 9Uq GXL1JC 1UqfI2LLJG2 111 JQO2 911q Cfl}1JJLIJ91iU 111 LJJC

q21JJ911lGq fIUUJ IJJC wrqq () LJJG 1ô302 C91J2 OL bLoLccLiou Lc-ewcLcq IJGL LOM1 qccpucq 911q

CUGL9LG OU 1.1111 LOMJ (U Ipe UJIGq 219LC2 bLoIecpoui2L L9LU12 Et4JiCp 9ACL9C j bet.ccui MCLG 1101

MIIP LG2bccL9pJc L91C2 01 0Db LON44J 1112 bo22ip(e 11191 2J1C bopcic2 pcjbcq 2bflL exboz. /ip!cp !u wi.u

20WG cOflULLC2e wcJcTq1u KOLG9 9Uq 2UJ9L)OLGe cbcLicuccq 911 IUJbOLL 2fIp2LTLflIiOU bjj92c TI COU1IIUCLIOIJ

OL 12 11 IjJG OLJJCL M9A 9L0flhJ UI2LOLIC9I CAIqCIJCG 2GGLIJ2 10 2f1C2L 1(191 C9f129J11A U" POW qILGcUoU2

pecu LGJ91iAGJ? 1JCJCCLGCJ lu CG CIILLGIJI LG2C9LC(1 OU cLo22-conutLA LOM1(J DOG2 obeuuc22 9fl2C

21911211C91 1(9M2 bLOp9pI? L(JG W02L 2GL1Of12 O 1(JG2G 12 1(1C J2211G O4, C91129111A 11112 12 911 !22flG MIJUCU (192

Vb9LL 4L0W 1416 C0IJ1J1c1iIJ U9IULC O cwb1L1c9J ciiqeuce LU q91e UJ9IJA 21nq162 9(20 czp!p!L 26L40n2

ob6u11622 n2cq UI 141611. 29uJb(e GcpO1U 1416 1.62(1(12 Ull bI1LCPGIL (oLqJcouJrn)

CP9UC2 111 bGqOLJJJ9IJCC,, jpc? 9(20 uq 6226U119JJ?i 110 COLLGJ9IJOU PCLMCCU 1116 A9L10f12 WC92f1LC2 04,

bLoqrlcpAiIA qccou1bo2iLiou COIJIJUJJ 11191 14161.6 M92 (111(6 9220C19110U pewecu C(19UC2 ru obeuuc22 9uq

U4 01)GU1J622 rucnqJu LLu2 dnoi wboI.12 9uq cxboLLw VCCOLq4U 10 IPCIL 9bbL09cp IIJC

J)pOnt 9uq MG2LPLOOIC (1 f) au9J?e 1116 L6(91!OU2JJ!b CLMC6U bLoqncuAu? LOMLJJ 9Uq A9L4Ofl2 WC9211LG2

WSIJf14,9CWL1U 2fl2GC1OL2 (I1GL £416 L64,OLUJ fl2iU 6x9C14A 1416 291116 14919261 911 L1UJG bcuoq 4,0L 91J9jA2!2

9uq bot-i.coun (T8-oao) jpeA uq 2iuTC91JL 9CC6J6L9110U O LOMLJ1 0L 3 0(11 04 ¶f

Page 14: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

anoi11 '(IJflhJO3-O13 rfi !iriw' iuli nibuI3no3 inioq isIinii rri (881) iiEw&i8 .iis1

ni iiei sift no ni11qmoo bbiano3 d iouin 'i1i viiu bnfi Idiu1iw gniiziini IniErI

qhIanoilEI3l viiioq 3th no 3nbiv3 nu!3qmo3 iom f1J 01 2lnioq iiwuf biinI .noiiup

i1i ci b1oanoq2 23ibu1 flnL1o3 bIis1b iii b1n3a31q 83nfirrnohq imono bn isfl bi1 nw1d

31fi1 fI1 ni 5138V1

iz% K cc cJ b!uo3 3nrxrIohq bn i3iIoq nwid hii1 1i ni'binbi dtiw b1th3oE m1doiq 3ffF

cf bLiork 3i3i1oq 3bsfl nhuam no isb i3fld ibum iiq 2UflE 1niThb owl rfuoirfi b,ibbE

rIi bn AruE1 blioW rfi ifiod d blllo3 131 lii 1E asioup brIE 11i1E1 no £1b bIiziQ .!dE1isvE bEffI

£ 1ñE b&tc3aib nf1o 1b ff3IJ 13vworL ,Ln bhoW di IA .(1M1) bnu 'IEi3noM IfinoflEfrx3flII

W0IIE bluow fiEb 3th niEl3l ol floIl3 3i1Emia' A .b32iElqqE io biudib 21 nEol '3iIoq 3bEll

IIunns 23i3iioq bE13 no thb a13L1O3 o2IE 1M1 rIT .2ifEns '3iIoq iol qo 131E3I I1311ff1 21ff31S21

01 3bsm 21 tioTh on 13Y *i3 ts mvK no noi3Ei1duq 21i ioI tiiq ni

21-ioTI3 lEnoilibbA noiJthvb blEbnEJ2 10 23ffl Thmi 2S ff3IJ2--23il2iiEi \1fiflU2 1loq3i '1IE3i1Em122

b3iovb E 31U031 InE3flhr1i2 3rIi .rioilsrmdmni 3r11 grnnnJqmo3 oi bio'ib cf 01 3v&i oi bhxow

%1IE3i3Em3j2 Io 21203 IEni1Em f!1 2noiflflhiani filod IE aioi1oq 3bEli ho noii&moliui nu13&Io3 cn

.wo! d bIuorI2 nb rbu2 githola bilE gnib1o31

'1ingobn ftI nivIo no 2u3o1 01 b3n 2tIoTh ,attoTh noi13JIo £Jfb oi noilibbE iii

b Ufl3Vfi gnizimoiq nO .uflwoig briE 23i3iIoq 3bEfl nw1d qithnoiii ffi cliiw b1Eboaaf arnIdoiq

.'3iIoq bsi3 lo 'mono33 Ifi3ilfIoq 3(11 no 31IJIEI8I1I gfugim rIi Iqq o 3d bluow rbii IE3iliqm3

3i1oq 3bEiI ioI u ol aln3rrnnlani 3&Iw enirrn3I3b 01 qbcl bluo3 noii1o1q o bom 'mono ji0

.(8VQI) 13u1A bni (BVQI) ilEwgsd8

El

Page 15: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

3bsfl U lo l3Eqfrii f1J i&1i aworle 1qmLx iol QQ1) l3lhlT .auongox5 10(1 '11S13 ai (131(1W

31L51 1JL33d rsq iii ,bvi1d '1auoiviq n&1i iisI amii n 1R awofl tioqini (10 aflOii3f11I

ma aidT .anu1ov rioqrni bnL noiiLnirrn3i3b 3i1oq lo 'iinEi1umia dJ iol IILJO33E ol b3i31n

.thwoi nui gnol bnE 1ivitouboiq no iui&iiiI r1i 01 biIqqL 3d bLuo rbLolqqL

u9rniutbA bAiiM iodiJ bnti bioq 9blnT .11

ziiK *M io&X io iv -13f13a)133H briE obi3i5I 10 al3bom 3bLli 3r1i d b3bivoq *Iow3mEll mundiliup3 L311 £ ni

33(112 n3rn1o1qm3 no i3sqffl on 3vEfl bluorl a mloI3l 3bs11 Liv ahq lEnohzn1ni abLwo1 nivom nu1r1O

3bs11 13v3wori tzq Ion ai ii1idom iodsl 313(1w bliow £ nI .b3muaai \11E13n3 ai 1n3m1o1qm3 11111

ii3iIqx3 3lom 3bivolq al3bom nu1r1O-1113aA33H .eiao3 In3rrr1au[bf nu-i-norl2 01 bs31 bli.Jo3 nrIol3l

fI1qo13v3b isrli 1f131x3 3(11 01 ;23EW 110 23311q ISflOiiLfrI3Ifli Lu a3nEr13 lo 1qmi rii nibisi anoii3ib3iq

rnm ol bE3l 111w rnlol3l 3bEi1 aboo 3vian3iriI-lodEI lii 1nsvb viJE1Eqrno3 £ 3vsrl 23(11(1(103

rrnn ni 111w aboo 3vian3ini-lodEI lo noii3ubolq 13is1 ablEwol ilirk 3ffT boo 3aorli lo noii3ubolq

3(11 ril noil3ub3l £ o3 bs1 111w aw i1i(1 rIuor1IIA .aiw aii brn lodEl iol bnsm3b 3r11 ini .aboog 3vian3rni-iodEI abizwoi iuqluo lo noils3oIIE3l s 3d 111w idJ .2ioJ33 IJ 2O13E oiisi lodEl-IEIIqE3

jsiiqs3 01 21(111131 3vi3E131 3r11 ni noiJ3ub3l £ 23EW ir1i(1 ol bE3I bluow rrrlo131 3bEfl isrli a3ilqrni au-IT

.2101332 3vian3lnf lodEl i0ffl 01 ailirk bnfirn3b bnE

riliw 3m[31 3bsii 3(11 ni a3gnErI3 AII1I rbidw a3ibuia 'Oinuoo-aaol3 on 319111 .b9Iwoml iuo oT

3vsrl a3ibuia w31 £ 311up i3v3woH .13v31 3biw-'rnono33 31E3igE 3rIi U 2133119 3EW io 1n3rn'ofqm3

-02 airiT .1inuo3 c nirhiw a1o13adIsa 22013E 2(1(10131 3bE11 lo izqfm 1Ei3fl319i1i[ 3113 511J2E3ffl 03 b3qm3ilE

113V31111 31E '1ls3iq1 331 3bEli 9th ff1 aorrEr13 3auE33d 3ldiaaoq ai rI3EolqqE rnuhldiliup3 IEirIEq b31IE3

iis1 bns a9gnErf 3 3EW IIErna 139qx3 bluow no I9I1Em loclEl nrnoi13nu1-U3w iii .aboo 2213E

Page 16: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

U

LGIUJC cq to LC1GL JOL IUIGU2ItA in bLoqnctiou HOMGACL houc O fJJC CJ2C U1q! qiLccrA WC9flLC

uiu oi bLoqncriou KLf1GiL iuq GL GOJJGIIC pAborpccq JJt UJOAIIJ £OM1L * WOLC UCfTLLJ LLJC

uq () uJcnuu tpe cnr o Mp!cp LGtGL bLolection GUCO11LG2 2pit 1OThL WOLC cb!t1-wtcuiAc

ocn2Gq on (j) UJC11LILJ jJG LGItiAG JOL IUtCU2IIA oi CXbOLWpJC !C12u1 iuibou-2np21Juir1u bLoqnct!ou

tpG JJ1JJCC2 PtMCCU iurq bojicic uq cwbjoAwcut in cn qcAcobiu ccouowic JJJG WREI�

(j 3) 2I1WUrnL!C2 biofrc bou2oLcq pA tpc r!ou 9flLCI1 OI ECoUoIJJIC G2GLCJJ (1BE1) to imjAc

icuijjA jcuoii AczA JJtrJG ¶;pont rpG poi.r-uiu iu.ibct o, inqe bojicA LC1LW2 on tIle JPOL UJLJ(Gt KLiJCGL

Viluc J<LfTCCL2 poojc on IL9G IJq cwb joAmczt in qeAeJobin COIIIJtLIC2 ibbcLcq LU tJJG G9LJA JO MC

EAcJCUCC Oh tqc JIJq WbJoXhJJCU1 i wncp McJcL OL qcAcjobrn conurie VItIJOtTP

AGLA jIItjG GIJCCt Oh tthG

1tC2 uq csmq it bbn rpr ri.qc bojicA cpue jcq to eubjoAucur LcTJJocou CLO wqrI2rLIG2

wbou coujbctitiou on 1ULGL-GCtOLI crnuc2 in cwbjoAweur pnr 2U1ICL CCCt2 on MJC' ipe fmrcq

ffCACUf (io uq QLOLJ TUq ILCUGL (J3) JJJC2C tflq1C2 2O uq uijcut CGCt2 o cpuC2

irrc tpcL cLo22-iUqnrLA tnqic o qic flIJTtC 21t uq cffuq lucjnqc bLGGWU uq KI (ioiY

ruq JJpCL CWbjOAIJJGIJL GIJ21JcJ1IG2 1pt tJJLc ! !LIA IJ!P 1UtGL2GCtOLj JOL wopiJ!IA /AtJJIJ tpG fluitcq

LcbOlJC jU OWC 2CC1OL jJAG pecu dniic iiJijCiJt CLO22IJJU coucjnqe LOUJ tPC JOM MC c2tCjpC

2rre2 uuqu ac piiA nImc2bouIAe to (rLuJ-iucJniAc) uijbou bL!CC pnr tpr cwbjoAincut

cLLicq ont pA QLO2UJU (} g) ouu zrnjAcq wc imbci o WLIj bLotcctiou Lu 1G uucq

2OIJJC O IpG UL1 ittcwbt to WG2uILC we bi.tij cdnippurim CGCt2 o jwboI4 cowbettou /ACLC

LCthOIJC2 tO cpuc LU LGtIAG bL!ce2 CLO2 2GCfOL uq pi CUJI)IOAUJCLTt GIJCCt2

wrc IOL CXIJJbJG picp ph wor iuqq p AGLA JCXLpJC IPOL UJLJ(Gt CJGLJA tJOM UJjJ MG

CJJUC2 111 Ofltbflt buce jionjq jcq to LcijjoctJou o JOL tOMiLJ wcppeL buceq ooq jpG fuicq

cinbiohincut 2p!1J2 GLMGIJ GC[OL JUCG MG OL IUJJJL OCCJ1bStIOU2 ponjq cdnjic CLO2 2GCIOL2 PITt

Page 17: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

GLG2 uq bbLcJ cccot tt ocicq MUp Q bcLccur qccpuc w wb1oAmuu pjA /A92 JJC

GCtOL--flCp 92 ¶1Jq pG/G• jp j boiu qcjiuc ! bLotciou 1OL UUJJ IU LJJ CXPJ2

cjruJirnruou o dno92 IJJGLG M2 i iuqjcU wb1oAincu L2boU2C IOL ULIJJ OIJJA EU 2OIUC 2bccIUc

oo pX uq wbIo?wGut iu wo uirnripcLiu UUII2 wcrq pA tuj LflCf1OU2 mq c

LGIOLW UI IAIOLOCCO fl2!IJF 1iJ9Ut-JGACJ qi OL OLOCCO pwicu jg (pcu fp fLq LOLUJ pcu) ruq

GnJbJoAuJIu JCAGI2 CnLL!G Juq H9LL!201J () jjuq u c/cu aujji iwbcL ou cwbjoAwu oi iLqc

rpt bcLiduccq pA txiro pcvtcu jg uq io M92 noctq c bLcuL qccjwc UI

tJLqJ JGACJ cuq dnoiU co/GLc yccoLq1u ro JJCL C ' 10 boiur Lcqncr!ou ELI 1LIJ JCACj flC 92

qiecGwpJC ou iuq WOCL1C LCqncoU ru i.w-jccj cwbioAuJcu ollo/iiu Lcqrrcuou Ill

IPC 1ô80 MGLC LCJ1iAGJ? woqc2r icu (To) nu bJu-A q J0L LAICXJCO nJq UO

hOL CXLCO uq JOLOCCO 1IOMCACL GIJJbJOAUJCIJ 1Jq M1C J.CCI2 O fJC Lqc LCOUJJ2 qn4U

LCjOCJOIJ PCMCCU CCLOL2 EGL flJC LCIOLW2

qf1L!u qJO2C Aci IJJC IPOL UJLJ(C1 in flLnnX Th92 JL1A cowbmiic iiip 2iLfljCIU cwbloAuCm

cwbjoAwcur Lcqnct!ou o PGIMGGIJ uq bCLccu niqJiu JC wC ACL JC2C LGIII2 2HC 11J

pm ff1WO2 uo wbci ou LGJ M1C2 qrrciu qic btocciiou LC MIJIU 2GCIOL pA i jcq o u

qJ9i Lqc LCOUJ.J2 jrnq J iUijCIJL iUJbC1 ou qic JCACJ oj CUJbJOAUJCIJI CLO IJJIJn1CWL!U 2fL2CCOZ2

1!PGLJ!U0U OU CUJbjOAIJJGIJI LJJ0C1OU JIJ LC! MC2 UI IIJC W&UfUJ1CUIL1IJ 2CCOL JJJC LC2f112 OM

iw () ricq onL-qJir ruqn2u.A q pCtMCCU uq j ô8Q o WCnrILC qc !uIbc o, LqC

OL flLITf1A AjCXICO iiq OL0CC0 bOL flLflfIAe MJJICJJ uuoqsiccq lLqC LCjOLUJ ill uq 991IJ !'

bLi1 cdnlppLlnw bbLocpc 2Iwq Ill biui o qJc fl 21f1q1C2 Jrn/c LCCCUfJA pcGU cowbctcq

ponjq jcq io cwbjoAuiut IIJCLGC2 92 IJJC J0L 1,OLCC JJJIJ tOML 1SP0L-!UCIJ1AC tLqcpG2

IIJC CU1J JUJbC OI LctOUJJ2 On JJC jSOL WLJCC--qJC poor IIJCLCIA pAbOqJC2iC2 JJf 1LC LCjOLJIJ

Page 18: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

rkiuJ2 di iol noiisrizIqx Idia2oq Isiv ioIqx W woI o noi1oIli31 1n3moIqm3 lo 1nix

.wobd *izmn ioctt b iii ai1ibiii nibubni .anoqi 1nmo1qrri

cHo1 0% ooio1 0 OThW U 0 %c\ 'koI ioi1

cthub o33oloM bn o3ix8M clod iii b1i3ini zrrno1i 31B11 3rli abisbni \(1111U03 Esiiiubni E1

tioqcni lo 1VO3 3(1 bnJb31 48Q1 ni bsiiini rcno1i 3bsfl 3(1 o33o1oM ni uorrnon 313w O8 I th

moil 1I1 Thiai mumixEm 311T .OQQI d atroqrni lIE lo 1n3313q II !no oi irI3iq I I moil (aEloup) aanil

3(1 ni rIoti3ub3l E ol b31 8Q1 in b3isiiim arnlol3l 3bEfl 3rD o3ix3M nI .bon3q ir1i rwiub ol . 0 oi 001 moil b33ubi aEwThisl rnumixEm rIi bus 0QQI ui 1 03 moi Iliisl 3E13VE

'cJ afloqcni us lo 0 nsth aal b313vo3 8I ui arioqmi us 1o b31vo gthan33iI noqml

Ilsi3vo ns iii b3111Ja31 (ATUD) 3n3m1A 3bslT 1i ais3 b31inU-EbEnE 3(11 1aEflflO3 nI .OQQI

asw nofl3ub5l lliisi murnixsrn 3(11 bits ,

I QQI bus 881 nwi3d lo u1imi nsibsnsD itt noiiubi

. 13bnIJ

no i3Eqfffl On IIsiln3a3 bsiI ii IsrI ai o33oloM bus o3ix3M ni rrnohi 3b511 lo iqi nilssuq 3n0

iodsl Isril ai noilsnslqx3 3ldiaoq 3n0 .1n3m\oIqm9 lo noils3olIs3l 3rD no 3ofl Ilsrria 'i3V S Ins sw o gnibnoqa3l molt arrrifl ni1n3v3iq 35W murninim io a1ao3 gflhil bnl3 nnirI s r13u ai3iLoq 11ism

310ffl 01 noii3ubolq ani1soolLzi molt a'oLqm3 b3lrl3vslq 3vsii 'sm iiI o ii1idsnI .rrnohi th

airli Isib aiaua si s3n3V bus sibnl S rf3JJ e3i111U103 l3rIlo iol 33n3biv ;normuboiq lo 515 3ldslfloiq

b3nirrrl3brnj bus 1iIidix3fl 35W b3lidirlni 3vsrl oLs sm 2wsI sw rnuminiM .3as3 3111 cJ sm

.anoqasr gsw £ 1o A351 b3'n3ado 3113 01 nibs1 nvi1i13qmo3 lsnoilsrrl3lni

irI3miwtbs wol 3rD iol 3ldianoq31 sis ailism odsl 'pI3ila 13(11311w iJ ot 'sw 3Lqrnia 3n0

rIod iii a13*ism todsl 11 .a3i3iloq 3bsfl bus 3n3rrro1qrn3 ,luqluo 111 a nsft) nimsxo 03 ai anoqai

.iuqluo ni anoilsiisv (11w b315131103 LrLir1 3d bLuorfa tn3imolqmo ni anoiJiiiv .3Idix3fl 315 a3illrtuo3

iii a3nsf13 01 3n31T1Ju1bs iuq3tJo lo d b3nislqx3 3d nrfi bluo3 inmiaubs 1ri3rn'oIqm3 lo b&I

VI

Page 19: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

3d ion bluow ii n3th a3gfIEf13 ioup bni Thii oi lr1i1u12 bbnoqei 1no 1vI iuqftJo II .23i3iloq

.113w a bnoq31 ol b1iE1 rnfrro1qm3 i fllflq1u

iol a3r3iloq 3bEli bn 1n3imo1qm3 iuqiuo m a3nErb nwid noi1z!311o3 rioqi this 1dsT

cirii1noz a11ui o3ix8M iii 1nix izt s ol o lud o3O1oM ni 1izIuiruq .o3o1oM bn o3ix3M

Ion 313W ln3fno1qm3 bns Iuqflio rliod isth iud nsd3 HJqluo ol '1in ini b3bfIoq23l in3rno1qm3 lEfli

o33o1oM iol anoilsI3llo3 3(11 2floq3l fk)iIiw 3!dET nI .2313i1oq 3bslJ ni acr1a b31s15r1o3 '1r1if1

ioI 8k bns sisb Isunns iol I E. i tn3mo1qm3 bns iuqiuo m a3nsf13 n33wJd 1ni3ftt3o noi11srio 3±

3bsT bits iuqiuo ui 2nsflo n33wi3d anoilslsrlo3 3± iv3woll .23nsfiz) (OQ I oi 8I rnoil) boh3q noI

b3si3oas '13viiiaoq 313W 2325313(11 ThisJ 311(1W .In3ialano3ni bus 3b1Jiifl5ffl ifi 115(112 31S 2313il0q

110135151103 3(11 fl3IJOfhlS--23gfISff 3 iuqflio rfiiw b3isi3o225 (13Vi153fl 313W 2530Up 3flEf13 a3ansrI3 iiJqluO

315 23flSfi3 1f13ffro1qm3 isrli ni2i1q11i2 ion 21 Ii 11n3up3anoD .

11sm O3V rhod rh 3(1313111303

.23i3i10q 3b511 ui nsr1 rliiw b3is13T1o3 'b1sw 1no

31ff .311511151b 31 lud lfihirru2 SIR O3iX3M lol 2flOiiSI3TIO3 2noq31 fI3iliW E 3IdET (11 2311J231 31ff

3(13 ni £1. bus nm flofl2 3r11 ni ui QO. ai 23n5ri3 1n3rn'o1qm3 bns iuqiuo nwd 1n3i3ffi3o3 noiisI11oD

10 iuqiuo 111 23f15fI3 fl33Wi3d 110i15131103 3Vi1E3fl 10 8Viii2Qq 31131212(103 on i 13r1l 13V3WOH nm no1

13wo1 3rIT .213v31 lliisi bus 3E13VO3 E1oup--23n&f 'i1oq 3b511 10 iusrri owi iuo bus in3mo1qm3

21 313111 2323g1J2 033010M 101 fIsril 03IX3M iol 1n3rfvo1qm3 bns iucpuo nwi3d 1f13131fl303 f10th3131103

311221 'ismiiq 3r11 13v3woH .(i3 i o3ix3M ui ii1idom iodsl isth 1f)ifl5E 3(11 101 212sd mo

\3iIoq 311611 01 32fIO2SI iuqluo rn33212no3 ,31El £ 10 A351 3(11 21 bru JdsT rliod c1 b33l1i1dair1

.fILfl f1OI briS flOff2 3(13 13V0 23flEf13

31qi3nnq nI .13*Isfn iocfsl biufl '1iis1 £ lo 2i23r11oq(1 3111 acxrhiIno3 33n3btv) iir1Io ,ozioioM ii!

23ibod irI3mrrI3vo moil noi22irrri3q flisido 12111 1211m 2(11111 3lsviiq .313V5 9111Jp iI 2w51 sf11111 bns riiiir1

rngns1 233'oIqffl3 b3im2ib 01 in3m'Eq 3311613V32 s sq (13111 lwm bns .2/oIqrn3 in3nsrzn3q 5111 03

81

Page 20: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

[GXiC0 uq 4OLOCC0 UJ!IJIWfIW JM IECLG LU bjc tpu qic 1LG LG10LUJ MCLG U1L0q0CG jO

UO1PGL boipjr JwbqiwGur o JOL 1JLJ(1 q1n2wJcu1 LC IJJ!ULIJJfIUJ t/G IM IJ POIJJ

1G

WJLJ(G1 LU A0L0CCO i IJ'P11 UG!PJC LU LGbouqJu jo onlbnl CJJUG2 ftpJIG 1G J,GXICIJ JOL WLJCG1 I

LGITJI2 LG COU2I2IGIJL MIIp (PG C0LLGI1IOIJ2 bLccucq iu uq tipicp fTG21 1JJ9 IpC [fOL

jcq cubjoAwcue 20 G2(JIJ UJOLG 2Jni2p bucLu oi jpoL UJLJG1 iq1rI2riucur iii cxco

J0L WOpIA LU AIGXiC0 IIJ C0IJ1L2L 10 C1LL Uq HLL!7OU (j) GAGU ijuq i JLG Co crcul ou

LG2ILIC(JOU2 0u JJJLTU 01. iLiLJ gcAcu (Jf) GwbJoAcq ¶ UJJJJL bbLoicp 10 1G2( OL flJG CXICIJI O1

dn!1c LG1LIC1JAG J0L IJJOp1JLIA !2 cowbLpJG 10 1JC flhJ1fG 2r1C2--HpCLG IJJGLG LG G22IJUjA

couJbu2ou 2fIbboL( (G COIJ(G000U (JJ( !U 0L0CCOe qG2bilG IGi2iou MjflC 013 bbcL IbbL2 10 G

V1JJGLIC1J LJLUJ 1JJLJ Er1LObGflJ ULIJJ2--tpG J11CL 1ThiCq? q1n21 GWbJO?IJJGU1 WOLG 1OMI? JJJG2G

(io iu tcuu o rp 2bcGq o q1n2wJcu1 bLiAfc GC(OL 1jUIJ Lu 0LOCCO ¶ILC UJOLC 111CC WOLIJJ

C21UJ1C2 LC ill IJJC 2WC L1JG 2 W02L 0 IJJC iuqr11u1 coriu.A 1flJC2 riucAcq p? HffUJIJJCLIJJC?IJ

Gxccbliou oj GwbJoAuJcuI qn2ruJcL11 icc bcc M11IIJ qJC ACL JJJCIL CCOUOWCU4C

jcq qin2wJcu1 uJoqc °L JP0L qurnuq 10 1C21 IJJG thccq oj q1n1mcu1 iii j,owcco IJJGA onuq qm iqi

conq cxbjrn JOM cIT2c!cJ1ic2 o cwbjoAuJGul uq MG LC2b0UC2 10 1LC LC0UII !' j0L0CC0

CflWC uq HLL!20U (1 f) CXuJwCq qJC CXICUI 10 IApICJJ f1LJJ q1n21IJJCU1 0 qJC I90L 0LCC

W1Uf1CWL1U L0C IJCLJA pA IJGLJA (Mdu(A bCLCGUMC botu pcuicu Jg uq jcy

p!LrU cwboLA GwbIoA2 11430 CU pG C21 qiuJ1ncq JJJC PLC 0 (Gmbo13IL? MOLICCI2 U

GIJ1CLbL!2C I1 1JJ1JA GUIGLbLJ2C2 JJAG LG2bOUqCq 10 LC1L1C1J0U OU ULIU bcuJJucu1 MOLJCCL2 pA

(0 Lcb0uq (0 1LC LG40LllJ 1�G21L!C110IJ ou q!uJr2cj2 1Ab!CJjA oujA bbjA 10 1G ILG1 j0U1J91 CC10L

flUCJGL poii rwboi.irnt L0G LG2ILJCIJOIJ2 oH qiuJr22J2 cwA bjX UI E1OM!U bLJ/1G 2CCfOL CIJ1CLI)L!2C

1L0W UAC MCC(2 (JoL JG1L2 0 2GLAICG) ob 10 3 MCC (oL J ACI2 0j 2CLAJCC) AGI !U bLc1icC !1 i

Page 21: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

biswnwob 01 iiisd s ic 3lqi3nulq flu bIuo th nibnid 318w gw muminim i&fi inix8 8th

1E51 fI1 o33o1oM ni .2gnsfb Lioup bnB Th1EI 01 32flO1 o )fai! rii r1iniE1qx3 ir13m1eubE

bhio3 ii i&ü rf3iliw O8Q1 8th niiub 1Iunnfi in33I3q 'd oi nw rrwrninim 8th lo 3u1v

.a83oiq Ifl3fTIiLJ(bS 3fb ill 8!01 rnfnoqfth (LB b3'fi1q ev&1

thin3v31q ni 1oi31 £ ion aw sw muminim th isth aigu 8on3biv8 3(11 ,13V3W0f1 33ii3E1q flu

iol 3sb bIoll3wofI bn bv31-in1q riiocJ b3s1ns (4Q1) 1138 .ooioIV1 10 oix,M 18111i3 ni in8miubE

isifi aij 3on3biv3 3111 o3ix8M nI .asw muminirn (111w 33nilqmo3 iuasm ol o3ix8M

iol 33fl3biv3 r1Jiu1 3W rruiminirn 1o1u1B1 3(11 wo!d nim b3vi51 thujbivibni to noii)si1

thod ioR81 2iflT .bnsm3b iodsl IIsl8vo no J3Sqm 011 b&1 sw fflhJf nirn 3(11 1u1i 21 LJ2 o2IE o3ix3M

nwbcf 1n8313q OE 'cJ JI1 sw muminim r1i lo 3ufsv 1531 8th isth 1s1 rf 1 113w as 3z)nsrIqmo3 iooq

.O1 bns 81 owl 8QI ioI 8IdsIisvs Ino ai 3gsw muminim 3111 1111w 83fl511qffl03 no 33n3b1v3 o33o1oM nI

ol b3w 3d f153 uan iuhinsm 8th ,1fi 1s(1i ioI .b33ubonni 313W 2rrnob1 8bsn 3(11 if1s ais b3llblanu bns b3lIbla rliod ioI b31s1113153 313W agsw 3s13vA .395w i1i33q-rfnfl 39513V5 nS 8)51113153

3rlT .ihow lo aia diod io noiludiiiaib sw di 1o amsl9olairI 1n8231q L bni I a1u9iI .aiAiow

aiXs isinoiiorI 3(11 311(1w j3v81 sw rI8vi9 £ bisq ff3irIw arrnft Isioi lo 315112 3111 231531bfl1 2iXE 1531t13v

(!sunns) 8th 23is3ibni •amsrfiib O18Q is nwsib niI Isifl3v A .gsw IEunn Isnimon 8th a3ls3ibni

fit 395W flluminim

01 895W mumium 3(11 12531 is 'sq bib arrnil lo 'friojsm 3(1115(11 2123991J2 I 31Ui9 fli 33fl3biV8 311T

12339115 01 isqqs 230b f(UJITIIIIIITI 3(11 li3EX3 35 2335W Io 311113121113 3(13 •noffibb ni .283soIqm3 b3IIbk

8th 13V3WO11 213)110W b3llblanu ioI .Inisliano3 3nibnid £ SEW mumurlicn 'Jilt .gsw b8Ilbla iot istli

33fl3biV3 b3nidmo3 8ffT .murruiium 15931 8th riliw 33nsulqffto3non IflS3llifl9iS 31J2 311J9i1 flu 33f18biV3

idi 311113b1159 15131133 £ as b32u n33d 3v5f1 vsm Ew rwmnm 8th isifi 2iau2 bns I s1u9i1 moil

Page 22: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

b81n31q n3biv3 3rD 'cJ bnoThi31 i noi2ubno3 thlT .iniE11no3 riibnid E Jon w lud b3ILiAa

rthub 'L[i1&nzib b13ni iod[ b3IIb[a iol brl&n3b 1&t3 work oiiw ,(QQ 1) noainsH bnB 3inuD ni

b133qx3 3v&f bluow w iod1 b31Ib1 iol lniEllano3 mbnid E rxd b&f w muminirn 33E1 ni 1! .208Q!

lo &k 3rD bianI .boil3q lErli rihub iodsl b3llbLanu ol b311b12 lo 31Ef1 3rD ill 3nib3b 3vi1E131 13 33 01

.11E3i1Erns1b bE313rIi iocisl b3llbkrui ol b311iA

1n3331 d b3ximi1i1 rid a&i muminim 3rD rlliw n13i!qmo3 lo bL n33o1oM 3rD ru

aulT .33101 iodsl r13 olm alnslin3 wn rihhI n3rlw nofl111ai31 iodsl 310fli \1Lg3l 03 arrnft niw0111$ 2w131

in isrlJ ij diuo iol in3moLqm3nu 1o a3ii rfirf 3rD ez3ibbs ol rioul3 ni ni b313q SW ff3ilIW WS!

bull ol 1li1 th 1n3mm3vo r1i ji1woi 1n3mo1qm3 iidhlni ob gw rnurnirrim 31311w 32133 3rD

.inisflano3 sw muminim 3rD 3Offl31 01 2flE3 31d131q33313 II3i1iIoq

cO uuo *.X s\

flZ3 3noqi 3n3m'o1qm3 rkiuk 3113 izth igu E bnz 1dsT ni biriiq 2001113131103 c1T

w ob woH .23h1nuo3 Owl 8113 (II 2331113113 ThvlJ bns sioup 01 3anoqi luqiuo ni 10 A1 ol b3iudilnc 3d

2232213 ol sw 3110 ¶Tii113J briE 1oup flu efIoil3ub3l 01 l2ulbB 01 10332 Ion bib rnqiuo isth 33131 3113 fIiElqx3

21211000033 snsm rIuod11A .noiJiJqmo3 tioqrni fri 233(113113 3fflfn13X3 01 i rrnoti 3b1311 rfi lo l3Eqmi 3f11

ni 233n13rb Th1E1 bris 2Eloup 3113 233f113f13 '3i1Oq 31)1311 lo iuam 31ci1qo1qqr 3111 113111 3u31r1 bluow

.e3gncrk '3iIoq oth lo l3Eqmi Ifiu3 3111 olni eIrl3i2ni mo 3bivolq 23rnulov tioqrni

rioqml .033o1OM ni b33rIsff3nu b3niEm3l 1IEXifI3223 noiIEll3n3q rioqrni .OQ I brn 481 nw188

V81 ni V.E oi 48Q1 iii Ô.VF 10011 b3lsul3ufl 101332 3nnul3ElunEm fIE33oloM 13 ni noiiEli3n3q

IsLfl3s lii 331113113 on 120111113 213W 313113 ,2blow ir1io ru .OQQI (Ii 1fl3313q QF oi I1di12 b32133130i '11fini1 1)1113

rioqmi ni .rns fD i 2O8I 3111 gniiub o3ix3M 01 bnfl or!'!' .231132 3iTh3rnob 10 31131k 13 2floqmi

bris V8QI ni 1n3313q V.8 03 bonuI33b 5113112 lEnT .lnoDloq V.1 213W gnimi3E1unrm nrixoM ni noi3i3onoq

Page 23: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

WG211LC 04 bLOqflC1iAit? uq 2GAGLJ qILcu bbLOCpG qqq (j) 2P0M2 LU !IJCLGC LU IJLIJJ-JCACI

bLoqnctiAi JJ0MIU IJJcUJ 10 JCpiCAC GWCIGIJCA !IJ2 M!W0fl1 pcqqiiJ jp0L fl!U IIJ9IJA qIJCLC1J1

JujJ? LGLG i JJ0 GAIqGUCC 1J1 jLIIJ Lcthouqq 10 iurcwrJoirnJ cowbGqqou pA L!2I1J

fJ1JU C0WOI.LpJG UJ91I1J? /IJ J1L J0/ACLLIJ buc o cowbrc iip 1G ipicu o iwbou

OL0CC0 2RI2 1L1 bL0tJ1 MLG ACLA pip bLioL o IJC LC1oLUJ--bo2JpIA JJ0MJIJ WUflICWLCL2 10

MS2 1101 2LG (1 bi1jA) pA IIPOL ILL LJJG IOUJJ O J0IICL MC2 yUcq01J Aiqcucc IOL

LC1CL iwbol4 cowbGliriou iq ro JOMCL uJJL U2 ouc LurnJuIu bnsjc ! MpA f!JC cqncriou ru boi.jt

LcqnclJou2 ru bucc-coi JJJJLJIR EOL A10L0CC0 qG GJO qqiq IJq H0UOU (1oL1pcouJTIJ) sjo poI,

bLoU1 EOL AICXJCO i'PI uq M!1UPLCU (j3) 2p0/ iJJ1 1LqG LCIOL1JJ 10 2JIJUjCII1

LOL1JJ HOMCAL 1[JGLG iuqcucc qJ tji.w Lc2bouqq o qr qn.ci o woic !mbo pA CnIIU

ii qic LJ cciiuc LLc qcbLccrnuou iii poqi conulLic2 cn2pioucq jL11J LIJ21 qJC 1LqC

JJ0ThGACL We LC XCIJUG IIc pcu 10 bbLcCiLc PCIIJUIU lu JoW

ruujcuqX u ipc wrq-ioo tpGu i.qc Lc1oLui ftcLc usoqnc;q irs poqi COnUILIC2 ycxco

oqic qcAcobIu conulLrc2 qnuu 1p12 bcuoq ic LeJ cxcpiic LSIC 111 CUCO 911q LAIOLOCCO qcbLCCI1Cq

1u1b9c1 01 IJJC 1L9C LG10UJJ hiI1LG 3 (fT2llJ IJJC Wft.•2 LCJ CXCpUC L9IC 2CL1C2) 2JJI/2 p9t cou.IbLcq 10

1lJt0I1JJ01U We Jô80 1' pop A0L0CC0 9uq CXJC0 9 LCJ cXCp9IJe L1C qcbLccir1ou CfL2JJJOUCq rIle

qc2blrc rue CJJUJiULi0U o dnor 9Uq rL!41 LCqr1C110U 9ACL9C (L1I curnrucq 9poAc 30 beLceul

LC9CPJU bLOICCIIOU JCAG 11fl LCW9IUC JJIJJ 111 COWb9LI2OU 10 UJJC IUfl21LIJ COJUJIL!C2 U Aj0L0CC0

qiC 9IJ2MCL 12 qne 10 9 COWpJU9CJOU 01 CACL9J 19C10L2 V11POflP 1L9lC LCI0L.W2 !U P0111 COIILLILIC2 /ACLC 1L-

J0L0CC0 buoL ro 1L9C L0LIJJ LGIJJ9IU UJOLC OL JC22 C0IJ21IJ 1JJL0flJJ0I1L IJJG JØ MC 9L1LC JJCLC qr

pA qiq rujbo bGucLL9liou 111 IJJ9Uf119CU1LIU MJJICJJ /A2 CCLWILJIA qiC W021 BLOIGCIC(J 2CCIOL ru

12 1101 211LbL1211J 1lJ91 01111)111 9JCq 10 Lc2bouq

IIJCU LCCOAGLCqa qonpj IU 10 j beLceul ru oo iu u!pr o IJJC2C cpuc u iu.rbou couibcqou ir

Page 24: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

33

CO11U1L!C2 C9b9pJC O JJb!IJ LGOWJIU CCOUOWIC2 9CdfliLC A9Jf19PI 1CJJUOJOA 9uq C92!U IPC

LOLcJu qiLccL iuiiwcui (hDI) JJCCOW1U 911 iwbo9u1 2OfILCC oi c9bu9J oJ. qcijobiu

III• jIiJqG ECPHU& 9uq EOLIJ DJLGC4 I0A6W1G1U

GC9fl2G OJilbill J9JJCq 10 L4J0Uq—C9U p 9bbpq 10 OIJJCL COHIJIL1C2 OL LCJOU2

10 wpICp OJIL !22C221JJC1J1 0 J1iCO 9IJq IAloLocco—MpJcp 2OM2 11J91 wb1oAmui M92 I9LG1A IIIJ9IJGCIGq

LGjJOC91IOIJ O1 J9fOL uq GIJhiJJ1? 110 M&C L2bO1J2C EIILIPCL LC2G9LCJJ 12 UGC229LA 10 9U91AC 1P CC1CU1

IIJqn21LA-JAJ nqrn qJI 1JJC92f1L IJJC J9POL IJJ9LJCI UJJb9CI O1 1L9cJ LCOUJJ2 JJ9AC onuq /LA Ji

2C1OL

iucjriqiu jpc IpouJA bLopJw o pOM 10 cobc Mliii I1JC LC9jjOC9OU o j90L LOW qJc bnpjic 10 bL!/1c

9A9LJ19C UI flU2jUJJC jp0L LU 1JJ 1L9 1110119J CCOUOUJ1C2 W9IIA I9POL W9LJ(1 12211C2 9LC I1hILG2OJAGCJ

iucdn9JiiA pcMccu 2pjjq Jq nUJCq 19P0L—/P!CP i 91 oqq IMIp AJCXJCO2 2ilbbO2Cq couJb9L9qAc

H9LL!20U (J) poti 1pn ! ccico M9 uq uibjo?wGu1 CJJ9IJC 9L (L9 LOLUJ JJ9/G jcq 10 LG91L

jccui LC2G9LCJJ IJ 9UA1pIU CJ212 0f1P1 OU 11191 JJTh0IJJC2I2 90111 ffCAGIJ9 (i) uq 119U?CU uq

LG9JJOC9IIOU OJ Ofllbfll 1OMJL2 J0M-2J(1JJ I9p0L-flJfUiAC bLoqrrc ujjp 1101 CCU 9qcdrl9lcLA 1c21cq

LCOLIIJ2 Hi qG!Jobiu COflUIUG2 ponq p 9ccowb9n1q p? cwbjo?uii;ui 9U M9C UJCL922 qnc 10 9

L0UIJ 911q cmbjo?wcur rbcci9fJA 9CL022 COrIIJIL!C2 'IJUC }(LflL2 OL!UJ91 JJThO1JJ2J2 1P91 1L9C1

?c9L2 LIJ9IJA dflC2110U2 LG1JJI1U nU9uvicLcq JJICLG i 9 bgncllA 0 LCC9LCP OIl IJJG 1!UJC9C2 CLMCCU 1L9C

D2b11 IPG TUCLC1?1U WG1J1!0U b9iq 10 IJJC COU1f!IJCI!OU °1 I9POL 911q 1L9 l22fI2 !u i' J921 2CACL9J

x'-qnLiu IIJC J9UCL b9 0 CG 18O2

WCOUCJrI2JAC (2CC 01IL bLGA!ofT q2Cfl220U) 1CLC 12 9J20 2OUJC CAIqCIJCC 0 911 !IJCLC92C pi bLoqnclJAllA

bLoqnc1Ai1A 111 AJ0L0CC0 toLL0MiLI qic 1L9C LC0LUJ2 VJ1P0flP IPC cqcucc OL jCXiC0 12 2OWCMJJ9I

Page 25: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

542GG 0L ubj CLqO() iuq D0WPflCP (Jô8o) (T(J) OL 0LJ uq oupcoariu)

xwiucq LcJpoupib LMGU EDF IJJC C11LLIU CCOI1U uq OIJJCL cbitj uoi jpcX coucjnqcq

L0LW OL 0 IIPL!!UOIJ 1i 3U01JCL LCCGUI bbcL EL) CI 22U2 BflLL uq BIUCPC (j)

U$I 22oci1cq MHJJ ED! UO/12 HOMCAGL qjc bsbcL qiq uor cxbjiciijA joojc pc aubc oj iLqc

OAGLUWU1 MLG LJJOLG 1 LC1IAG 0L ED! 9120 ionuq IIJ9t UJCLC92C2 Ju obcuuc MCLC

coucjciqq conuw iitqi J9LCL IU1LTJ9! uJ9LJcc12 IGL qOwc2flc IUAC2WJW L9JO2 9Uq 9 2UJ9IICL

iuAG21191cq IJC qLmiUTrJ Ot (JJC qi2Ripnrrou O ED! UO 9CL022 qcAcJobJu COfJU1LJC2 9uq

bLCA10IT2 CUJbiiiCi MOLJ( Iii J12 9LC9 12 91LJA 2C9LCC LGCCUI b9bci. pA pqLq (ioo)

ED! 110M2 9UL9C1G OL LGbGJJGq pA LG0LIJJ 9Uq I!PCL910U

ROTh 10 9UL9CI 9 J9L 1JLG 0 102C L2OflLCC2 U pi2 2CCIIOU // I0Cfl2 011 O1J 92bCC1 oi qJi2 inc:

ED! 12 P0flIJ 10 LUJ91U JUJJ1Gq jpJ2 L9122 ccA diiceiou OL qCACj0biIJ C0rnJ1L!2 J9UJCfA

HO/fGAcL wnJA ru9JA2r2 pvc bonucq onle Ipc fOWl AO!WC 0 LC2OflLCC2 9A919fG 1JJLOf1JJ

2C2f 1P91 WGLC 9LG JJLG IJC1jf2 10 C Lc9bGq rn qcAcjobIu COUOWTC2 1LOW 9UL9C111J 4OLC!&1

911q Jôô5 OCC11LLG 111 qAcjobw COflUfflC2 (Jo4q uC oupcowiu jC2C fLCU2

iwboi.wt 1UCLC922 in GwbIoAwu1: IJC9LJA UJ1JJJOU o pc g unjiou 10p2 CLC9ICq pA Wn11!U91O1J9!2

cxb9u2Jou O WflJl!U9110w11 CoLbOL9flou2 !U1O qGAGJobi1J COIIIJfLIC2 p Aicjqcq S1JJO1J OIJJCL PGUCU12

IU/2f11JCW P? IIInII!U91!0119J C0thOL!O1J2 92 pU OZIC /P!ClC 0L 1p12 21J!( 111 ED! !J0M2 JJJG

TO2 (Jy\OLIq 99IJJC !r

COI1UfUC2 cconucq 0L iponr 40 bLccu1 OI ED! !11UOM rib qL9UJ9IJC9JJA LOW bcLccuf 111 I.uzq-

CP9U1J 92 IJGTh ED! !UCL2!UJA oi ro qcAGobw COITUfLJC2 DI1L!U j5-4 qcAcJobIu

J9LC 9uq L1C1J qowc2Iic WTL1CC1 bLILIJ9LJIA 9UJ0U fG iuqI12tLi9jicq NoLjq H0MCACL fG b9ucu 9LG

1L91J2!1!OU (0 9 WOLC ObrIJ rcouowA flUf II LCCCUIJA ipc PfIW 0 ED! ocq UJ9IUJA (0 C0fTU(LC2 tip

Page 26: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

D1 LC Uh1T cc qni rbbuqn qtijp mbj bcuoq2 MLI OL qiiui COflULIG2 JMU 4OL LJ W]OLiLA coac2bouq ro ip u'ij Jôo-Joo5 bLioq

bbLdu1 LOW JP1G f (P( EDI UOM2 IAOL JLGL CCOUOLJIIC uq jii LCiOIJJj? I1JGA AOL E21 v2

Mpicp tpc tob tu qAob!u corIlJLX LGCibiGU2 O hDI !LJJOM OL JôôO-5 bGLlOq u

JJJC qcLcc O 'P'4' EDI O/2 LC COIJCCULLtC !UJOU jGM LGCIbIGUI2 i cATqcu pow jpc

LC LGWLI(P1A COIJCGUL9IG !U GM LGCibiGU corwL!cr

JJOMGAGL i fp 1JJGL !? LGJ1 ALiflJCG WOU C0fIU1L1C Iii qic 2!G OI EDI !IJUOM UJ fJL IJJG2G UO1

JUUOM2 LG 'JJtJ LGJ1/ LcC!b!Ut COnIJILA (3Db MPf qic Lbp qoc Uof 2JJ0M

qnLiu tJJG UL2 psjJ O JG ÔJ2 fli iUCLc2Gq LbiqJ? 4CL jg jpc L1bp j2O 2JJ0M2 qJ1 bDI

ccbLc22cq bcccui o LGcJbicu conui.A 0Db jG L1f1LG iuq!c1G2 1pi EDI UOII GJj 2iIJUjCIUjA

bJJ1Lc bo EDt UOtt ro qci jobw C0JiULLC OAGL qic jj-j bcLioq LDI iIJjOtA2 9LG

Ofl2 to oot tt.ucv

1pJ 2CCUOU LC qccupcq 'u qct tu pc qi bbcuqir

couqiiou boicX-pcq uiIu!rcL1 cuqiu p u iwbc on bLiAc IDI LJ0M2 y q O1!LCG2 0L

IJC,2 4%fl V\ CO\U %jto (vr'ciD) 10 cxujiuc MJJGIJJGL

GCCIJHJG LC1L1COU2 pic Ju !wbc1 OU IJJG JGAG Oj JiDI U0M2 EJLJI1A MG 112C ILOW IJJC /O4c

omc 2ImbJc GCOUOWGILIC IIJJA2G2 10 IU!G IfC WOLG CLGJJ1J!A MJJG1GL cJJ9uc ELI 1LG uq IOLG!IJ

OLGJU 1uAc2w1cu1 EU 2r1p-wbIc 01 COflU1Lic PG1OLG uq JJCL 1LC Lc0LUJ2 JC flJCU CLLA Ofll

IPG !!1J PGIMGCU ILG flJq CXCJJIJG LC1LIC1I0IJ uq JiDF h pij fA ujAsiu ILCIJq2 Ill

I'J IP!2 C1OU ' cit '' JiDI 11JUOM OL CO11U1L1G OAGL IjJC JØ- bcLloq fO CXIJJ1TJC

HJUOM

qiq UOr JJOMGACL rncjAc ipe LcJ1i0UJJIb pcccu i.qc ruq cccpuc LC2IL!CUOU2 uq qJc ICAG! OT, hi)!

A lpC CIILLCIJI CCO1UJf uq JJGUCC 20ci1cq /AIIJJ JLGL !UCLG2G EU UJG21I CbIW1 0LUJfl0IJ JJJGA

IPI UJOLG llPcL1 IOLGiU CXCjrnUG 2ArGW2 WCLGG IJJc 1qc1p0oq 11J1 LDI UOM ILG f11OUOUJOfl2 AI--

Page 27: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

5Q, '-jq ujC LEb LGb0LI (iii u? ymj bb

2GG OLJ n!,e ILqr iburou bLOLuJ Kcbou2 (/Lion) q HLLOU uq icu (j

LGflJ1J0IJ2 OL u iwbLo1cq 1JJCL0-GCOUOUJiC GUA!LOtJUJU IJJCC JJ IJJLGC bcct2 oi, bojcA LC10LIJJ LC

IUAC2IIJJCUI Hi qi COf11J(L1 LUCC1 1IJ 1UJbfc1 OI IPC iiqc LCI0UII2 WOLC JTPCLI OLCJU !UAC2WJCU

ouc uuboiut bojic? dnuou i rpc CXCU1 10 iipicp rpcc bo-LciouJJ 2f1LC2 JIJ JOLC!U

JUAG21IJJCU cwjjA ccqq qJ ijnc qqcq oi pc iuAwCu itpcu WCflLCq 112JLJ MOLI bucc

o IJJT !UAC2WJCLJI it cincA MCILLC-M0L2II1U 2IUC JJG LCL-IffX LCbf1LHpJC GLIJRJ2 fO OLI1J

Liciq o qrn bLorccfcq JJJJ[JflJCU1LIU 2C0L \fCCOLHJ 10 LCIJ OLj J3TUJ( Lb0LL oil KuA wot

IJq ju LCO1J oL flJG qccnic !u KuAf urnA pc rpii OLiU iu/CJCu1 M rLq!1i0uqJA pccu

KUA (ilol 2poMu) oLr,Ju ju,ccuu iurjoii cuA qcJruGq olloMJu LC0LUJ UI 01JJ !ô80

UJ)j)/AG JiOM rJ LLILIC wq p pIA-Uncuu b&uci.u OL ED! tJ!i2 yuq ru oujc OL cxuJbi

cxwbj bCLfT OL cpu—qiq 1101 XbL1GUCC 1XpJ TUCLG2C ILl 0LIJ IUAWJCI ACC 0tJJCL2 H!

qflL!Ufl2 j2O J0M iuhlicu1 nb#Lq 1LCU2 HJ ED! I0fl0!iHJ 1LcJC LCI,OLIJJ fill 2OIJJC COflUILIC2—jpL

rrLcq ILl TO SJlP0f1[J JJLC 0 OJ4b t ii drn UJ1ll OIIJGL C0(TLT1L1C2 11CC 911q

OJ4b ph 1ôô5 LU IPC IM() 1LJIJ!1!0IJJ CC0IJ0UJ!C2 0UJJCL uq boiu J0LCI1J IJJAC2WJCUI

dn jLc: Hi cow gicr 0LCJIJ iuACwCIJl u;LJA 1LibCq fUJOflhJLHi 10 1J !LJJ0M 0 OACL bcLccul 0,

!uACPJJCur tUtj0/A iucLcJ?Gq fTp11JLijJA l0jJ0EAiU 1LC LCI0LUJ2 LU 20WC COfIUILIC2 IPC wU!WqC LG

bbLCul LC!liOLJJJ1b C1MGCLJ 0LC!LJ HJAC2PJJCU( UflJOM2 uq 1LC LCIOUJJ LU W01 C0(W1L!C UGI 0LC1J

BIG IBIIC 2CL!C A!1P1G Gl0LG uq IJGL C1Cp 1LC LCj0UJJ cbi2oqc oii n o dncJqA 1IUJUJLISC IIJG

C0I1IJ1LIC 1JJ9 AC flUCLOUG riqc LC0LW uq MCLC LCCCLTIIA cP nP1Cct o, 2wqA ph IJJC JOL 9IJJC8

EIILC bj01 Ilic JIJUfIj JLC O IJCI 10LG!1J IUAC2IUJCLII III 0Db j0L np-2UJbJc o qCACobJu

uq ED!

CUMLOUUJCUf2 1Jq 0bCUiLJi nb 10 1LqC IJJ! corijq pG IJL2I IUqiCL10U o Ji1JJ(C PCIThCCU LCI0LUJ2

uq rr!U VIUCL!C 1MO L!OIJ2 1jJl t bLc2Cul jJAC 0UG TJ1LWC1 III LCj0LIJJJU LJJCIL UJCL0

Page 28: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

3X

JwpIfrncG) cuq qi poet coriuaX wuc OML2 rp buir BOW 0J iPCC C0L2

IU OU rp UA2PJJCLIt LTOO JJJC Oi 0ACUJUJCUt CU pc j(CU 2 IJ iuqicriou 01 J2C pJUCC (oL

1JJ CXIGUI 1JJ qowc2tic !1JtcWJGu1 r couibjcwcuA o OL!LJ IU/C2IJJCIJ MG onq cxbccr bo2iuAc

pLoq WJCLOCC0U0UJiC ALJJG Lp LC cxb€qcq io ijc LUAGOL qccr2iou2 o woi iur 0 cornui.A jo

JJJC IUAC2IIJJGIJL LJUO' (PC IG 01 0AGLIJUJCU( IJq IJJC LGJ Gxcrnuc LG LC iucnqcq io bzoA IOL

= C0 + C. c(—j)+ c + c + (—j)+c +

bAuJCur (LIJ2C(T0U2 (pObI�E2):

boicA eucc (jj) iii ipc u.qc boj!cA wuc (qjj) uq ipc cxrcut oi LG2fLJCBOIJ2 ou pjiJcc o

0Db (ii�)) IJJC 2IG 01 0AGLLJmCU( (jo JLC 01 0Db (oc)) qic LCj cxcpuc L(C (IE)1 IJc Lqc

bcL Cb!1 (oDbbcY L0M(jJ in 0Db bcL cbi (eDbbcY qowcuc 'uictuJcur ( J!LC 0,

(jØ) iic bcc q 21wbJc cwbiuc1 woqcj IU MJiCp bDI EUIJOM2 LG IfTUCUOU 01 LcJ 0Db

1JJG0LCLJCJ qcAcobmcIJ12 rnq p wotjA qobicq bLumUc owctnuc cic 'oc bbLoscp bOHOMiJ

0LUIi0U I!CLUILC Fwbiuc} uiA 01 1JC qcrcuiimmui 01 hDI p0MG/ 1J2 JGq pcjjuq qcc

IJJjCIJljA OACL ipe r ci ?cL2 (puy2 o uc qciqobwcu iu jop iLqc (JJCOLX uq qJc Uqfl21L!J

ØfLL qJcoLc(icJ niiqcruqn 01 qrc qcrcuuwmt oi oLciu qacc TIJAG2WJGI4 JJ2 TUCLC2

Ct O\L'1c AcL 0

tpc ccc 01 WC qiJcLcw i?bc 01 LcloLuJ2'

uq CACU j) jpc cCOIJOWGILIC zrnJX2i2 pcjo ,ucwbr o qirnnip UJOLC AcumcjjA pciticcu

CJpJJtC MCLG iUJbOLfU1 1C[0L 'Jq qrni iLqc LGIOUJJ beL 2C wA uo jrnic bjAcq urnloL LOLG (HLuou

wqiMqnj C0J1Uf4G flct WOLC J!PGLI 10LCJU JUAC2IUJCUI coqc 2 MCJJ U IIJJbLOACq LUCL0

OIICU rcjqcq IUJflJWUCOfl?JA qJwc to iqcuqjA rpc 2cbL1c LOIC 01 1LC bopc? 2u1q1c2 o4 we

Page 29: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

JJJG2G qr /ICL urnqc /91P1G (0 (12 Ui cowbcucuGq tOLUJ1 PA !TU CJ22U2

cxiucc oi 2bCc!J L1G OL 0W OL 1J cbiij L JCj1OIJ2 WnjjibiC L2 OL iwbo2 wnjiibic LC2 jOL

qnujujA ALJpJ2 MP!Cp cdni i ft biuicn LC2LJCUOU CXi jpcA COACL pC ojjo#ui LG2ILIcU0U2:

fl2 1U ro jpcc q llCLC fT2C pA }LA c ci (j) uq LC coqcq 2

OfTL UJC2T1LG2 O CCjJJiJC LC2ILICIIOU2 (LC J(CU ILOW IPC IL

!1J/2WJCUU

WOLC qi2oLtcq 2ILfTCUILG o wiqpjc LCJ1JAC bLicc uq pcucc 1j20 PC IJCt1ACjA ocrnrq MJJJ I.OLC!1J

rpc cxrcur oi qirouioIR ! r rOrnJ1LA LCJUAC bucc o riqpjc y pIpCL D0I1L IUJCX MIII iuqicc

22oc!1Cq IM hDI !11U0/t CC0IJq MC ILA fU q1n2rCq ACL2IOU Oj D0IIL Iuqcx wbi o cbwLc

ICACI OI 1JLIJJ H!PCL ({LL3 ponjq coLLCbouq o WOLC bLoicctcq WLj(C2 iJq CIJCC pC UC1!ACIA

bLoxA 4OL Lqc boiTcA pcucc f LA uio opL IJJCflLC biL2 tic nc qicc WCHLC2 OI IPC ACLC

bcuoq rn LflC po/ obCuu LUO2 p2cq ou cinj rqc joii i.c i 1J !uJbCL4CC

ML1pJC 0LJL? JC qAuc (JJ i1 ! AIpC IOL jj IJJC COf1ULIC iLl OflL 29TJJbJC uq 1OL IJJC RtpoIC

niu obcimc oi. cxboi bjn nnbor. jrni. o QDb OIIL WC2flLC o LJqC OqGUtlOw u'!2

MC I1C 2CACLJ ¶J1cL1J1IAC /LipjC o WC2(TLC cornJuJ2 riqc bopcA wucc j pni pA

iu ou qic coLLCthouqnJ cocjcIcut o pc U9UAC

CXCjJ1JG LC uqCx—u WCLGJ2C Ill fC g iuqcx LCbLC2CIU2 u bbLCciiou— i wonq fl2 CxbCc qJC

COflUtLA i1UCL1J!OUf I C0WbCtJ!/CUC22 uq LG l!JCCJX o f2COflLC IDI QIACU OfIL qcjitrou O JJC LCJ

u iubc OIJ LJJG 2IC wq joc(iOu Oj EDI UO2 OACLAIflC CxCpUC LjC2 qC1LC LOW

ffuJpInofl2 JJJC JC/Cj ot qc LGJ CXCJJUC L1C 12 1JOCL bOJ!CA AL1pJG Mplcp MC nriwc ponq j2O

Cqnciou MJJICp onq LC1J CO 1L2Ci LDL U0M JJJC 21U 011 JC QC ALIpJC 12 flJCLGOLC buou

OACLUWCUf 111 0Db io cbuic C1OL2 2fTCP 2 CC OACL1JUJCUr,2 IUAG2WJCU 111 1UJL2LI1CI1LC uq

MOnJq 2f1C21 Uf!Ac LC1IOU2IJIb PCIMCCU oc uq bDI llOM ou rpC OIIJCL p9Uqe JC 2IJLC oj

Page 30: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

WOLG acuac cqnctiou !cJ t1iU JACj2 uniti conuri_ica sbbci. to pe aaocitcq /Mt iuci_ccaca IU ED!'

pGUGL cibrsacq pA ipe DOIIL iuqcx jpc aJu on jcq cjrnue P1 tL11J !ACj2 Oil rpc oqic jJUq urnyca

jao qoca not cbuuc tpc wjbcr oj UOU-WLJ pi.ucLa oi_ opcL tol.wa o ru.ibjicg bi_otcctrou picp urnh pe

cxcut o bi_otcctiou aiucc n cjja cia jjc poni ipc qiabci_aíou o ILJ2 Ipc!L coci_c oi. tpca CjCCt2' It

uq tIJe D0IISL nJqcx V boaipjc cxbpwtiou '2 tpt tpc icLc ILI uc2 jittjc iuqicLiou o IJJC tLfIC

oLeiu iuc2wscur j,pi L?flJt atuqa lu apth courat to ipoac optiucq MJJCIJ naw ipe obcuucaa Lio

fCAGJ o tLUJa cUiCL2 boatriicj?' ncatiu qrnt p!pcL ci_c BL!I42 LC aaocitcq i,itp woi.ce uot jc2a

pipcL iuqcx wqictiu VLcJícL bLice qiatoLtioua bbcri_a to cqncc ED! L,jO/i2 nLbLi2iIJjA pc ACLC

MCACL 12 nJaiuujcur LP qnatcq DO11L luqex ía UctiAcJA 2aocJtcq /titp oLcIu IuAc2tuJcut' V

/,ttp uq Mitpont qJc qnwwica oi_ BOb LcatuctioI2' jpc cocijcicur ou jcq cpuca iu obduuc2a

Va cxbcctcq obGuucaa ibbci_a aU.ouiA boa11itciX coi_i_cjcq M1J ED! P1 pOip qic abccujctiou

cqq1t1ou to ipe ti_qc bojicA iLipca'

qcbcuqiu on ipc /LJpjc nacq cojAunja () qjorp (Q) rnqnqc tpc WC2I1LC2 oj BOb i_caticqoua iu

ALJIJC ía wcut to cbu1LG IAJtpiu-conutl.A cccta o beat i_coujja /c optiu aoiJJcMpt qjJCLGIJt LC2Iljt2

aponjq cbwi_c CLO2a-ConUt qicLcUcca Ill ED! UOM2 qric to qci_cui JCACJ2 (4 bi_otcctou' jpc cpuc

bojicA' wotc tpt pc ucni_ca ILC cutccq poqj in jcicja uq iu jcq cpuc2' JJJC JCACj ALWPJG

cojnuni (j) tpi_onp (j) bicaGur qicLcut abccictioua picp nac 0cm tpcc 1tcLIJt!AC UJCarILca (4tL!G

jpjc bLeaGnia tpc tcanjta optwcq pA catiurnuu cdnuou () ou oni. bucj 4 COITIJtLIC2

UoMa'

bi_occeqa LcanumpA rpc cxiatcucc o i_catuctioua on puc; o bAuJcnt2 tLuactioua aponq qctci_ ED!

cbuj r J2ctioua iuJboLt ani_cpi_ca iqicc iucbo qcboaiia uq i_cdrni_cwcut to anucuqc cxbo

cxboi.ta Lc2tLICtIOIJ2 on bAwciira iu i_cabcct o cnLLcUt ti crioua i_cati_ictioua on bAujcuta iu i_cabcct oi

Page 31: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

b3gs1 no birnii2 iuli thiw eThii lo L3vt 3th no b3niido iniill,oa 3I1i niwqmoD

mo 'r!w ni1qx ion ob bvt noii3oiq lii 3n1311ib 111wo3-2o13 3ErIJ 11hi ni nErf 3

vii oi qq Th1Ei i1irL thiw i1inhio3 zth 3Z11 th ni— itho n&li KB iom vi&i aiiinuoo

thiw b31th3ozs od 01 mo ob '(flnhJo3 1Iu3ir1Eq i mfthw noii3io1q ni grnrL iu8 ICR a3I Ion iom

IniI 3viIiaoq £ ol inioq 21dsnEv bsii rb iol iLui 3th IIivO 11.if13mJvni ni51O1 (U 32E5I3fli

.b3Iqx 3vsl1 zm w ai IniI £ b1sw"io1i1iiEn2 a ion ei ii r1uothli I(FI brn "nnqo 3bshI nwid

th 110 in13ffiO3 d1' .viau13no3ni rIii is immub n0ii3i1151 O8 5111 ibI 1&rIiI3 &IT

bnE Inuo33E 111511113 sf11 ol zInsm'sq no enoii3hICSI no at1oqxs iol esii slqilILJrn rio mrnub esi1 IEi3sqe

no enoii3inasl no seofiT .1nE3iuini2 a'sw1s ion irid 5viiE3n \1insieieno3 sirs 2n2oqsb ttoqmi S3nEvbs no

nsflo si ebss3olq rioqxs lo isbnsnue no bns inuoQ3E 1iiqs3 srfi no erIoU3iil2Sl rioqrru no 25161 slqillum

anoii3rrtesl snsr1oxs siqiltum sdi sism 03 alqmsnE 1sivse sbm sW in flinini 'Iieom lud sviiieoq

lud enoiI3i1ias1 snsf13xs lo szwrnfloqrni IIzisvo sth 51u1q63 bluo3 i&h sIdnEv s1nia £ oini esirnrrwb

nirnifl esldEFuiv eiesdine insisThb srli no inshffflso3 sill zliiw •euouidmE sisvi niolisups eirli ioI alluesi

rn&iuinieni Lins1eiarIo3 flio

(OQQ1) ebiswb3 'd bsrioqsi ciluesi sill fhiW lasliflOs ni ,Ins3fltf1i2 isvsni 21 I3iqc isq quo IssSI

rli no siiqs isq qUO iii ifiwoig bssJ .(Q1 Ans8 bhoW) sisiiwseb nibniit inssi rijiw snit 111 iud

isrliH .enoieesisi sili lo 1110 I 111 insi1inie ci bns 2noi1s3ii3sqc lIE ni 'Is'itricoq cisins bnsd isnilo

eli 'd bsixoiq es 1nsrnrrisvo lo ssic sifT .insmicsvni nisio1 siom iii wnb oi nnssc 5311511 eSIBI rhwoi

d ciluesi 01 iasiino3 iii ocls ci culT .insrnicsvni nisio1 01 bsislsi bviricoq 3d 01 issqqs UO nil sisd

insminsvo lo sic li bnsrl isilio sill nO .bsI3sqxs sw isiIw 01 is1inIo3 lErlv/srrlo2 bus (OQ1) cbiswb

nibnsqe bus siuThiriiczfini lo 1iIidsIisvs es 113112 insr1ncsvni zsflls 01 bnsr iur1r 21o13s1 illiw bsislslio3 ci

-nurfiiw bus '11nuo3-22oi3 sifi wod brmicibnu or 'u or -isflruñ 211u251 sc11i gnhofqxi to csoiq sth iii s-is sW .25IEmu1) 3I11 135115 3311Ei1EV (1iflhiO3

OE

Page 32: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

xutcthiq WC2flUU Lpc bcijc ccci o, uou-p- jcuqwO1CL wnhI cnqiu mbr,cijj) pA fC oqq ijc ju tpi C92G LCojq pu qnUJuJA wA pG GLLGL

, HOML LCCGIJI 'II pA gquy (j) nca tpc oj LE jcuqiu LG qi2rncf tLOIJJ poG O

pG UG&UAC CJ-2GJGC1!O1J UGC1 91 MOLj( 11J91 MOfTJ ruq o ocic foLJq BIJJ Icuqiu ttdrp booii.

LGIJCJ2 O IOCf12 Oil COf1L11LIG (JJ91 LG Hi couorrnc qiJjcfl[PC2 OL M!IJJ LOMp HCUC JJGLG conjq

OUG boipjc Gxb!1irn[!ou OL p! bnjiu LG2flII conjq pc jrnt OLj rnJc q1fl2LUJCIJf JGuqiIJ

bLJA91G UO1

uqr pA goqLiJc (J ) ipr uou-j. wnipuGLJ uqrn wX pci ucriic icc ou enpcdncu

uq 2IrnUCUL LU LJJLGG 2bGcujc91!ou2 rponp fp12 LC2IIJL i 11LbLJJIJ i cou2iLcU1 tiuqJ LGCCIU

G2f12 IOL 1GC LGLG22JOIJ 1LG bLccucq w jipjc jp q1nwJGu uqni qnumiA

iwbcL OI Wflf CJ3J JGuqiu !" GUGLIJ iuq UOL 1fIL L1J //OL fl91Jj(

cuqci2 wX uo pc oo UOIt OUG cu ttA iuGLbLcL qTh2wJGuL JGuqrn qnwuiA 92 LGUCU 1PG

cowbJcwGIU ccp OLJJGL uq iujboc bsLr11cJ couqiuoimjuA qi owiiou o qic qcij2 Oil OLGL IJJfI1CLJ

OLJJCL Lc!OU-p92cq qcAJobwcIJL pucw jo jJc cxctu L91 WnJ(iJ91GL q1n UJGIJI jcuqu iG1J2 O

occq /ML IJJC JoiJ2— cOu1iIJcq HJOUJJ91TOU OUIIA OL /OLJq fl9lIJC JcuqU uq UO OL iJJC JJ OL

iu/cruJcur flUOWIU91GI'A OflL q91p92c—/iJrcp OJJLGq qcLJJcq RiOLW91iOU ou JJC LThC O couqwouJA

AL1pJG ! wcplqcq J9G fO GXBIOLC MJJCIJJGL LcIoLw-p92cq cuqiu jcq2 'U"2 OI IOLG!U

2 Pill qq qmuuJA ILi9pJG OL ftLGCCALU, joqq I3UJC f1lIJJGU( OL boJlcA-p92cq jcuqni jpr

91LULCI ED! OL UOV 10 JIJAC[!91C IJJI2 MG G2(IIIJ91C 2C[ OI LGLC22IOU2 21UJI1L 10 1O2C bLccu1cq u jpjc

OUG nuGLC[iu dncuou ! MGiGL LC0Ull rpr i ccomburnq pA UJnJ(IJ91CLj jcuqm LGU2 10

wo2lJA JLJU1UCIJ[ MIJJIG 191 Oil [JiG LG1 GXCPIJG L91G icuq 10 GU[GL IJG91JACIA 9 cxbcccq

Oil G(1C91OU l bo2ifi/ LGI91OIJ2JJ!b oiijq UOL pe 211LbLI2HJ JJJG COcjCJCU1 Oil LJJG UJAG2LUJCIJL L91O !2

Page 33: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

cowbjiucc iii1p pc conqiuoubLoc2 o xbcuwcutiu I?U uuoqncw 1qq!fiouJ couqniOujuA IJJG uq J20 owC CAJqGUCG OJJ COITUrL?

JJJCC LC111 LG J jJL?L Cfl( t M[JU i fCLA UCJJ ou uq couqiuoujit?c MC LC !1J 11C

)cc cot \j\ ic ccu u

C0LLCI1C M!IP hDI U0N2 f GIJ1CLC TU p20fl1C jCACJ2

bc1c p uo 2iuijcnJ iwbcr OIJ EDI MPIJ WG2flLC 2 2JJLC 0 0Db P1 I MCqA ucqicjA

pG O1CL uq bbcL o pc uo qr2ccunpJc GjCC1 ou OLcJIJ TUAC2IUJGIJI UOM JJJC 2JC oI IJJC jcuqiii

bo2uAcJA pn t uot dnu ?!u!ucu s2ociCq MIIJJ i.sq bojicic rnq rLJqc L0LIJJ OU

21U11JCU1JX S22oCitCq t.cp UOM2 jpc c 1GuC o bojicX couqi1ioupQ ou cxcpu; L12 U1I.2

LCCCIA //04q J3UJ Jcuqiu 1JG CXJ2ICIJCC 0I WCLOGCOIJ0W1C bbL2 10 C boi1AcJA uq

ffGfljL2 10L 1JJCC LGLG2J0U2 LC bL2cu1cq TJ LP! /1?I1jJIIJ 1JJ12 2UJbJC oi COflU1L2 11191 qJq

POIIJ UI Ofl1C ICUJR uq JJ1LC 04 0Db

IJJC2I1LC 01 IJJC 21C 0 10Ij JcIJq!LJ LCCiACq pA ccp COITUILA LL0UJ 1JJ /yOLjq J39UJC Lu bwcnJL ACL

couqirJouJi1A ou WCLOGCOuOWJC boJJciC2 CXCIJC L91C bopclc2 iiJq 1LqC LCOLUJ J J2O iucjnqc

bGcujcIJA tic iucjnqc bucG qrrunuic io iqcu1iIX MJJCIJJGL bi.pcnJL 0LJ BIII 10' ucjnqcq

qiq LGCCIAG //ot4q BU1( juqiu iuq ucjnqc C(2 OU 1G C0UqI1L0UjI1A 2oCf91Cq MTIP 11JC 1OU

10 hDI Uo c isru i 2iwbicq ACL2IOU 0 OJIL p2TC LL2J0U OU 11J91 np-2uJbJc 0j C0flIJtLiC 1j191

9UC uqiu iJq cuiuiu N\PC1PL LG CX11UC oi 2bCcTUc couqiioujiQ bbL 10 WJ(C 11I1CLCUCG

UC1TAC CJCC110U !22f1G 1J1L(IJGL pA LG1UC1TU IlIC wbjc oujA 10 1JJ0C COIIUILLC2 IjJ91 qo LCCCIAC 0Ljq

JJJT2 C0c1U1CL1CLrnJJ dnciiou J jW01 iwboipjc 10 2MCL H0tECACL MC 911CWb1 fO bfIL2fIC IJJC

M0flj pvC GCU CACIJ J0/GL Iii IJJG2C JSiU CCOUOIIJIC2

bCq0WJCL2 JJJC C0LLCC dn1Jou tO 2J( onjq IJICU pc MJIC1JJCL IU IJJC 2CUCC 01 jCUqUJ bDI U01

Page 34: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

33

uq L0MIJJ umuA uiu bLopjcum LCIJmUJ V UIIUJPCL Oi WOLC LGCGIJL Wqic qo IJOI JOIA I CJCL

yjiponp wu inqi ivc po bouc LcJiou2pib CiMGCIJ AL10fl WGflLG OJ 0bUUG22

1101 J(IJOM C01JCCLLJ!U IJJG LG1J1JOIJJib C1MU Lqc LCjOUJJ C1OL UJLJCC12 LJq LOMtjJ

LGJ1iOIJ2pth pcU/cu 1LG uq Lot.ip iu 1P! bbcL tic pic ucwbicq jo cJLijA imr t, jcuoii uq qo

IP0L UJ7LKCI iuitmci o iLcq LGIouJr rpc jiuc GLMCU 1LC ff1J 4OLCJU qiLCci !UAG2iLIJCIJL IJJ IJJC

bLoiou COUOIJJ!2f 1J1LG 1101 LGJCq CjL C0U2CU211 OIJ ¶ UI1WCL O1 TUJbOLWUI cJnc2rJou J1CP IIJC

jp wuiurrq o cI2IIU LGCLCP OU LJJ CLC1 01 1LqC LC1OLW ! IUJbLC22IAG uq Aci

IE COIJC1I?JOU

CJLJA rpcc jtucc

LG0LIJJ CO!JIUI1G LGGLJ JuJcq 1 pCIICL nuqcL21uqiu Mp JIJIJ1TCIJC OLC1U JUA2IIJJGIJI CffLJ pcib

LGCCLA11J q1(11IJJIJI JGIJqw' JJJCL0GCOU0UJIC COIJq!i!oufJJf.A jmq JLCL JUJb1C1 Oil bDI ijOM 1J1 iLqc

cum 10 p ipc wo21 iwbouut jjii i pipppicq pA urn. juqiu qmi wou 2np-mbc o COU4C2

0LC!IJ IIJA21IJJCIJI LIIJ/G 10 OIJJGL ICIOI2 TIJJOU IJJC2C OIPCL C1OL IJJC WCLOCCOUOUJTC CUAILOIJIJJCIJI

/JC qo ijuq qmi 1LG bojici uq CUCG ii.q icjoui ccw ro imi i UJIUOL uJJb9ci oIl ip

MIIpIIJ-C0nUILA Cpu nc uqcq 10 GIJ2IILC 1jJCG uqiu2 LC L0fl2

OH ED! UOM MIIJJIU C011LJ1LJG OLC cxcu i UJA212 oj cLo-coriuhI.A bcu uq c2bcc!JA o

MCJ( GMqcUcG IJJI CIJ1J !U IJJC LLqc LCIIJJC ( LJCG rn Lcqnctiou2 w 1L!IJ,) pvc bo2qAc iwtmci

1jJL0fIJJ JJipL LqC L1102 OL AI IOMCL bLJcc q2ioUIoIJ2—9lJq jOLGTU IUA2WJCU1 U0M2 c jo uq

OIIL imAi LGAGIJ boiiii cLo2-cor1uhLA ocwiiou pciMccu obcuuc—MpcqJcL WC2flLC

0111. HJJbIC COU0UJCLL!C iiAi 1JOMCAL1 0IJL2 IM TIJICLIIU iu2ip

0pAJOnJA UJfICp UJOLG GwbJucJ MOL!( 12 ucqcq LU q112 1L p;o UA LOff21 coucjn2Jou ciJ pc LM1F

EWb!LJcI CAJqCIJCG 011 IJJC IIIJJC PLMGCU iLqC LOUII uq OLC1U IUAC2IIJJCUI 1J0M2 12 2CLC uq

Page 35: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

10 LGthOUq 10 IJJC CJJUG/ !' aqc LCIUJC

LGl? nu;c1cq p? w3qc L40LW IJOI 0 bLop1w IIJ IjJC Jp0L UJ1LKCL pill Oflfbflf '1(1

JJJA2I 0j ,qGXJCo uq vv)Locco J1C21 U01CL GxbIuuiou: cwbjoAtucui iii 1pCC COfJU1L1C LuJiucq

JP0L WL!(1 LC1LJClI0U LG U0( Lc2bou2!pJ 10L ipc 2Jfli2JJ JP0L WLJ(C1 LC2bOIJC 10 LLC LC1OLLU2 0fl1

wb1o?mul LC C0IJ[LJJUG pA IP0L W4(C1 Ln1110LJ AGI rpc cmbiucj cMqCuCc 2fl C2l 1JJ1 1PCC

iwboi.-coujbqnj aCC10L--11J 01 qcAcJobcq uq q/jobTu COflUILJG2 OIJ boipiIiiA t wq

TJOM2 LC brrssjiu yr qi /LA jcr ouc onjq cxbccr }LL LG&1JOC1iOU O dUJbtO?iJJGUt MA LOW

jpc wj cuibjo?uJGul uq ic Lc2bou2c2 10 ACL2 JLC C1JUC HJ C11JJL rLqc BOJCI OL LqC

C0/LC

IJ1JCIJ1LA !U 1JJ0C JJJLJflCITILHJ 2CCIOL2 ipzcp cxbcLicuccq IPC JJ!JJC21 C1U lU 11LIIJ3 uq dnor

nbbot.i 1J2 coucJ1riou u bn.iicnj /1C2 uq cwbjo?ucui rU jcxico uq 0L0CC0 qiq UO1 qccpic

CL022 Juqn21Lic liilpiu buicn1L C01!U1L) IOL CXiCO OL0CC0 ffuq cucijiA

ouJrn--MpcLc 1LC LG0LIJJ2 MCLC Ccouibiiicq J * LC1L1ICWLIU o qJC CIJIILC ccouourA /cjcucc

jpc oujA cxccb!ou2 JL Hi fiG 1LJIJ2l1IOIJJ GCOIJOIJJIC2—-2fICJJ 2 CCPOI0/JC1 0IJOJU ojuq uq

qrc J1 bbcL2 IjJI rpc nucwbjoA!JJGUI 9IJ tAC SIC12 0I fJG 112qC LGIOLW jJAC GUCLJJX pccu urniu

JjJc GAiqCucc 011 J9POL WILCI2 uq iiqc LC0UII r UJflC JC22 cx1cuiAc ;q Oil qJC Wqc2 fO

0Db LOMJ uq ALJ0I1 WG1ILG2 O LLqC bopc? IrnAC cucLJJA Aicqcq uiixcq Lc2f1112

0 OIJJCL ALpc2 iUCflq!ii ottrp rnqic rp pic (UC 10 1qGIJPI) IIJC cn1 LGIl!012p1b pc1ticcu

qijjcrijQ iii WC2f1LJU 1G iujbc o• iLqc bopc!c2 Oil L0M1JJ J 1JJ1 1LG bojicX wA pe r wucuou

1IL1tj LLICL2 JJUJA IJJ9IJA O IJJC CXI21iIJ uiqic LC bjncq pA cLiOfI? CCOUOWCILIC bLopjculw ouc

u1Jb0L1u1JA tqc bojic ! IJGAGL wc2nLcq 112IIJ IJJC WO1 opion iuqcro--ncp uq uou-

LCJ1ioU2JJib pcuccu IJJOLG 1!PGLI rLcJc boJicic2 ffuq bLoqncrutrA 01. 0Db L0/p b022!PJA WOLG

Page 36: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

WL!CC12

C0fTU1LJC nuqcLoiu u.qc LG0LUI uccq 1101 cbiwj wA L0W oLuJcL1A bLorcclcq qOIJJC2IIC

III ICLIJJ2 0 pIpCL 1LG LJUO OL I0MCL BLICC q1210LU0LJ— IJq I40LCIU HJAC2IIIICU( u0t IJJ coucjiqc qm

L1UCU0UW ftC UGGLP Uq 21UUJC1J1 bo2WA 0CI1I0U pmccu obcuuGn—/tpci.rnL wGnLcq

cucu!1IA ccowbuiq pA WCL0CC0U0WIC LC0LW nJq pA JJCLJJ1L0U oj, cecpu LLuwGU12 uq

bbcL2 10 p 1LcIA fl1JLGJ1C 10 1LC LC0UII fJJCUJ2C1AC fJ1 1CU12 4L0W IJJG C1 11J1 LG0LUJ MCLC

COJ11JL!C iLq LC0UII it ccowbuicq pA ?rn1JCIJ1 UCLGC2 111 1,0LIJ WA21UJCIJ1 HJIJ0M jjJ12

OJ1L ujAi o ip qI 011 1LqC boiicic LJq 0LCJU IUAG1UJGUL 110M2 flG12 1JJ1 !1J WUA

Page 37: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

D10b111 Coil .!C J4BEK /AOLICRJ },JbCL J40 3fj Ø cbui EI°" E0LC!1J D1LCC picawiciu nq DCPEdR iiba

1011UJi 01.DC1J0bWClU ECOIJOWICV 3:3 J -\JÔ 1Lqc D2OL1!O uq QL0MJ fl DGACI0b111 com3p.rc,

CflJLJ CPJ ______________________E11qC11CC JLOW � TDC2 JQ- ECOUOUJIC DCAC!0bUJCU uq

D0W D 1ÔÔJ 1OV q-0141UI DC/CI0b111 EC0UOW! Kll D° QLOM IAIOLC

qpq flUIACL1 bL2L0qf1CCI. HL0CUCU suq j,cqpturnucc 113 }JQ n-Iuqrlujiq C0nU120L0CC1J jLqc 113 j)pon mJq Içopc1.la oLqJcounuW

qc klLJ0i VF uq B HOL1OU EXb0142 uq pJq11LI9J 14ou3J9uc qr1LnJ

bbL bLCbLC LOL OL1q B1JY r'p° LC joipob rqA jC1I1 1 V HUOU 11JLqC I�çOUIJ n3q r'POL JjLJCC1 vqìnawicu 113 OL0CC0

yuiiGLquJU291? HqpOO 0 DC10bWU ECOU0W!C J0JflhJJQ 11 40LflJ HOW1

CLq00 E uq K DOLIJPU2CJJ (jg) E0LC1IJ Cb!t ii°' u f ci nq ji;GL01fW U DA!0b!11 C°"1U'111

BPJ1 1J1 F 1. J5 10bC1J1JG2 JCJJUOJO1CJ J,L0LC2 miq ECOUOW!C

BflLCfl 0 ECOUOW!C P 42CJJfl2U2C0UG&1CUC2 0 ECP1 COIULOJ K1UJC B9i!mL bLC22 0L .1C 14!0IJi

BPM 1 TÔ8 E0LGJU jWqC jClWC2 uq ECOUOWIC DC JOb1iJCU V1J0WA 9IJ

B"1 KCCLCIJ 0P2 /LBp/cti 1 Jô 1xboI.-bLowopu pqc wA: IflC2 miq jyc fl0LJ

yniouJopijc: LCrC jwqc b0T!C? umco iisni.?I fCAflJ2OJJU nq V bJ(C JOjfTUW1.?i EXb0I1 KC21W11U2 013

ft1OLJq BW r'P0L jLJ(G ftOLJC}J0b rq?BC11 r JJJC pibtct o j,jnnwnw /C2 w vcxico uq cojowp,1 bbcL LcbLcq OL

O ECOUOWIC (1,A) J oBLLO W JÔÔ F 1EC0U0UJ!C GLOMW !1J CLO CC11OU 0 OnLICLJA OflLUj

cOfl13flJ Iô.\3 OI pOCJç l0JI ° DCAC!ObWCU ECOUOWJC2 jg:-B ,1ExboI4 bOIICA CPO!C niq ECOIJOWIC GLO/W 113 DCACJ0bIJJ

fl!Pll0L1IbPA

Page 38: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

ECOUCUJIC QLO/AJr, / c IL2CJmIJpCpC2 V'!' 5QO(nI): j-jHL ,jwbou bLOCCPOU uq Exbou j,cqpuimTicc: jpci iwboi ou

bLOI2W OIU 9IJflULA 3 -59ojtc? I�ouu' bbcL btbJLCq OL C f4JOLJq BUIJJC jLUqC Exbuiou

HW2OU v uq yii icu? j'pOL 4LJ(2 LOLCIU jUJ2PiJCIU iiq

iij?i OL DCCJ0brU CORIJTIJCH [OflUJI OIDCAGObWCIJ1 EC0U01mC2flUJ2OU V F EOLJJCOUJUJ' aObCJJUC22 q eoiw: y jnuc-acuce CLO2-cofIII&

q iqCUC'11 1OIILUJO CWJOIWJ E00U011J102 Q:-flHLu2Ou v IoF wbcqcci uq j'q JçcoLw: jjicoi.?

C °T. '1°'° /11°qq B"J IIJJUJCO

i-pqqq uT Iôô 1LP r!u1 BVCU JLjC FP Jsi101J 'q T11J!-E00L

C0WbD!0U IU 11JC G1°P1 EC0U0WA AJJJ bL2 BO2OU 2CJJfl2CUWtoauizf 0 vu q F HC1bw psuoiou uq ototip: jccpuooicj

nuilcq ionumi °. U ECOUOU JIJiCL!OIJ : j-3QLO22UJU 0 TÔ8X JJ' EWbI01L1CU uq 'ic ou JwboI4 Cowbc!Ou RI JJG

Oflw o u wioLrnt ECOIJOUJ1C2 Ø:5Ø J -33Lows1? Q jg 1jwboi 2 cnc oUu1nL?: fIG C oupc iqnp.211

ECOUOWJC JçGIGM Aol J,40 j) Cp0ULCJJC2 ioot 1oqncO jc' pc rw cou1u: jji ywcucu

ECOUOWIC2 uq pic _____________0GLOI 1V ,EUU. pJJJOApOU 9uq LoqnCpAI QLO!4p1 JJJC JçC/JCM O

bolicA u WG rpo oj uq tpc flrnq tC joqq ECOUOUJ)12Ou J4 uq D ILGTJGL JOLJCOUJUJ IjJJC jOG O 1UTGW9T1OU 1LqC uuq jwqc

#jtc' nubrrpJi2pcq bbcL /OlLq BWLL TAr JC22CU2 b iiq VT-C Bl1CPT ,LOLCIU D1LGC JUAG2WJcu:

mq 1CJJL B LLWJI3 flWAGL2IIA o cico bJc I o I.ECOU0W) Jul J1LPOU jLqc uq ic r'poI. TALW cqlcq pA iopu VT ypoiq

LIuRu ic uq v K Iuqrul q EWbI0AU.JGU DG!uiwOU 'U u 0bcuC0flULTC2 °T. DGAG!0bWGU ECOUOIJJIC2 3 3 -TI Q

EIIJU! H ri 1Exb01 1wboI.f2 uq ECOUOWC 0L01t1J 111 wi-pJqr1Tujicq

Page 39: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

DCAC10bWCU q cniin'j 3):4p-.f ________I�'" 11 ECOUO1C QL0MW: OWC EtqJC COUOIJflC

qou1 bIE Moqu bbL Q p/oLq BJCbuCJJcu r ior UVIIL1J nutq o4cuwIou u DCAC10bW cou': cs" ! J

2C!UC bflp[i2JJI2 BAECOUOI1J!C2 JOjflhJiC f P if CPCII .LW EE/L

hc1e H ,1pqr I.!!Iou uq Jgq11) CpbL iu juqpooy o DcAcIobwdu

un-Juqnwpscq coui.r1, o CAObWCU ECOUOWIC2 j:JX-3OQnq Joprn2ou j jiqc hopcic2 uq LoqnqrMI7\ in

iiq ECOUOWJC KCOUJJ J4014Jf OflJJ i-uq EjLoqncpAIA w uqnau.A11 m qc icio uq 2biL jwqc jpcoi.A

vu q r ir IL IôO jwqc bopc? ou!ou uqJ4flUJCL 3 cbcwpcL IO3ô-JO4U2 1Jq J4CM DbW1L211 JJJG 1OflLiJJ O ECO1JOIJJIC rLWILC AOl XIX

4CjOIJ W IJ. KCCLCJ1 LOflCW4 QL0MW 1Jq bL0C!!U D!TLcuc: D1

JCLC22IOIJ211 VWCI411 ECOUOW!C

F"!' W 'q D 1'1' ,' UWA1A VIJjAI O CL0C0flU QLOMJJ

uq EWbCl V11iA!2 ___________E' 1JAJWLC2 O IU OfCL E BlquqUOL IL!C bOJCA

JJJG JCA1M °L ECOUOW1C ruq 2W!2!C2 Q-OKflU21 W Y'I q D AJLJTJ J?i OU EXb0It2 uq Loqn V C'i

VUJL1CUU ECOUOIrnC jiicm ):jj-jjJ(flL v o qB jfIUCCU EWb!MCJ jc op iiiu uqn21.A nwcu11 JjJ

VUWb uq C0U2Cdfld11CG2' BlllL AJ(KWCCL V 0 (io) LoLc! iq iiq ECOUOIJJIC DcAc1ObwU:

bbGL uq Locccqiu AOIflWG s: J4flWCL 5KOWUJJ Ià 1Edfl!PPI1W B'D q c 1P0 fl E''1 'flV

COIUI I0fl11Jl 0. DGACl0bWU ECOUOWiC J4:t I -O.1ffU /A q b LAI2P1F Jô8 SIEXbOL GLO/eW iq ci'U in

CC O I4IC 1OUJ1 o ECOUOWIC DQAC!0bWCUlH2!O Aj/A jC22 Oj C2f1IJ!?i 91J CXOCUCIO pucu cxboi. uq ccouowic

Page 40: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

pjotjq fl9Uy /UOr1? jLqC EXb110U ILOL1W Kcbo1.

Raw: /1v!uoI DC bujJ/o4q B'JY I GI0P1 ECOUOUJ1C bLO2bQCl2 uq ipc DoAcIobiu conuu.c2 jpc oqq

cowbciou: jpc umjico

ACUP!C v I uq 1!p Jxvou bLoqncpMlA uq

fillEUICmUC CPJ flJ 1CU flC1flUhJ pJqna1uc21 jTUJCO GOLCOMU

j)pOrii 1 V D /,C21pLOOJ J 11J)3qG ripcwjiiou c D!1iJClJ2101 O

BW ECOUOWIC {AICM AOf Q 110 5jAporii i 1J�ccLcJmJ8 ipc w' D!LccpoI,1 jpc

I0J '° I ECPWI) _______________________ECOUOWCP1C rrqA o jwboi bolroA11 OI1UmJ O bOWC1 ECOUOWA AOj

!LUGL Li iô 11jj.q uq pc JJJC0LA oj EiJqoduo occpou: yu

B9"1 ECOUOIrnC CAICM 3():14-T8J _________Ldrnzf 'i q H CPU1 ioo Lp DCCqC2 O pJqfT2ujiiOu11 JJJc oqq

iucowc uq /ACjP JLcp: iLOqnC1 Jq b. rCC!: aruca TOL 130 COW j Ø- J KCAICM O

W Jq V HC20U Jg T J4CM G1 O I1UCUJPOIJJ C0Wb10U o jçcj

bL2 UJpUq J/j22CjJCLGL J f 1ô IW9T011 IJJ-jCCJJUOOA C0WbCP0U L1Lq fi!JJACLIIA

°lJ D'1°"'U EcouowIc IAI?1 i- iôjoquJe U (1 JØ ' 4PL WnJP1VJ jcuqi VUIJI Jf0Ic1 BmJJ( COU.CLUCC

Th04CJJOb 1JjcxlclJ rncwuu bc Lcb&Lcq OL ftoLJq B9UJC FPOL IA1LI(C

IQU& y EWbJ0A1Ul q ET1CCf Ol JLq ppcwjiiou: C

2-38F ____________________________ruq pr1c iu fl nI.l.JA onw o ECOUOUJJC CJtJj(j):

V. ôô3 1EXb0PU 1op Jpc iwbcc o puboq Cowbcou ou EwbIowcu

nwc qc ycjo JoLjq uc jçiouj uq ccow wq i vtoIf DCEU.CC12 014 bL01C!0U1W ou conul. cqicq pA pcpc COUIJOIIA uq

jurn vI ioo jpc r'po jrqci niq j)sqc j14OU1J iii Ill

Page 41: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

4o1G: \fJJ 2uqLq CLLOI2 COLLGC1G OL Lpi1LL) JJCLOGq1iciD

g-dnL ØgQ Ø 0 O3W oog4 3t àt 34

p10 Qiicvi)(o)ooo

(o) (o)oooo

(03)

-O13.

i (nwio'i)(ot)-oo -ooo

(J•3)

-o.oo

(.g)

-J4J3

e1 (niiioj,ij)

(03)

OOOct

(J)03Q

(o)0OO

(3)U11't

p(1LJ-nbXbJ..)(oQ)

-oo!o

(Jct)o.30.x

(ff)-o13g

(TX)-0•JQ

B(Xb1) -0010(r3)

0J()0.0Jo

(o)0'0ô4

B(B'WD)(?t)

ou(3) (tt)

05U ()3O8

p" (,LJc-nb?jbEW)(i)-0133

(Tf)

OJ8(ri)

-Ofô(o)0J5

e(llw)()-ooj

(o)oi

(T)-o.oi

(o)owo

(icrnu io ecic)(w3)oo

(w3)uoi

()08ö4

(Tj)

p1 (yLJc-nb) jj(v)j.8o

Cxoo)

j.j(13o)

TTT

D6L6IJCGE!L

DRL6L6UC'OU

D16LGUCGL112

DGL6UCGfOIJ

bUCG2 OL CCJ flppou.4O vqnqu LOL J/14GLiI

CbJc fltfflpou(OL J/6LJ5j W4C62 q

(I-2!2c Hi 0)IPPIG j: J3Loqncqki uq pJIGuIou1 COWbE4UIOU U11jJ3CPII4U

Page 42: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

ooioI#I tu nnoh$I 3bt1T bwi tuqluO In3nroIqm3 : BIdET

2n&fD iY oi iiY

ni nirtD £iou

ivoD iii nsi1D

flhsT ni nsdD

noqml nohEfln3

nfirD oJ l3dmIsll Iii i!ioW o

nzrID oJ iuqniO ni

010.0- o.o 1o.o- 00.1 Hi n&1D oJ iuqiuO

010.0- 800.0- 00.0 00.1 iii gnEdD goJ ihoW

8P0.0- 81 .0- 00.1 oqmI ni gn1D noijfln3q

001 ThisTnin&D

00.1 EJouQ fl nEfD E13voD

(1nO 0?Q1 bns 18Q1) an&1D boiiq gnoi

Hi g(LSfD Hi risdD Hi nf1D nr1D oJ n&1D oi siouQ 2T1hiT rioqml l3dInui4 Hi iucpuO iii

sivoD noi1E11nq ihoW Io

0.0- 800.0 0.0- 18.kO 00. 1 iii nirfD goi luqluO

0.0- ô0.0- E0.0- 00.! lii ni3r1D oJ ihoW

QEO.0- 00.1 tioqml ni nii1D nohIJ3n3

00.0 00.1 t1i1ET (II grrnf1D

00.! £IOUQ flt 3f1E(fD E1voD

Page 43: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

o3ix9M ni urio1I 9bEIT bni WqluO tn9nroIqni3 :F 3IdcT

3n&1D iz3Y oi iiY

(Ii fl6f1D EiouQ

gsivoD

ni n&1D TthET

n&1D oJ l3dmlM hi aihoW lo

n&ID oJ iuqniO hi

80.0 O.O 0.0 00.1 ni n&1D oJ iuqluO

ô0.O 010.0- 00.1 nign&1DoJ ihoW

W.0- 00.1 I1i1ETthn&1D

00.1 EioLJQ ni n&fD E1VOD

(1nO 0Q1 bnE 48Q1) 3W1Ef1D boiiq ioJ

iii f1fih1D Ill tiir1D nu1D oJ nE1fD oJ ElouQ 11iT idmuM rn JuqlijO hi

sivoD ihoW lo

V1.0 V80.0- E1.0 00.1 nin&fDoJ iuqfliO

000.0 V0.0- 00.1 hi )gnEr1D oJ 21hoW

1 1 .0 00.1 ThiiT LII 1TE(ID

00.1 zouQ ni 3fIEf1D E1VOD

Page 44: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

otc: bLOW 2wbJc o conuuc COnJ1L2 o bOUJJL 2OflC nulon cxc jnqcq

LflLICC? oKOL 30 ct 03

BL!J 3' XJ 03

uqouc2I T s

VLIJUU •Q 3ct TV12! XJ

jpq JOT 5b0LW! TO JAGXJCO To.o T

c1JuJ jff J J•Q

C011110.A

q6E6obm connpib6LC6IJ O (O4J ED! 4 CfIIIJIJ!!A6 bGLCGUI

LGabIGuj CIThIi)! 2 bGLCGUI 04

jpj : lob JGU BGC!b!604 Ot ED! IIJUO1A !ôôO-1ôô3 1AGLG

Page 45: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

OL OUC UJ JJ qcbuqut tJup)'LCJ XCJJ1JG LLG iiq (JJG 1/GIJG 1JLIJ JCAj LC 9fl EU JO2' jpc LcL2ion o wcriq coUiuf UJJ 91J JJOM2oiG: j-t iJc iu b9Lupc gopn1 GLLOL 2LiWiGq 11IIJ //JJL (Jo80) bLOCqf1LC JGUJ 0Db bci cgbiw rpc

V ri ssI� o,5t 0110 0!t 05 0LO O'501

flLLGUG ( bioccq(00ct3)0000!

(0t5Q)0ü0!

(o'ot)WOOS

yq/&ucc yj qboit(-osj)00003

(-1•3o5)0001

(-r8QQ)0'OOS

4 fTLCLC2(-oLxs)-00003

(oo)O000

(ro8)0001

CCOffUL

G21 bAw cbiwj(ooLx)ciooo

(oioJ)OOOT

(-rso)11003

gi bi?w CILLGUf (-tx)000Q

(-so)-0OOQ

(-30Qo)0003

jrribJG LC 011 x(-oigi)-00003

(-sasj)-000

(-soro)1J0(N

t1I!b LI2 011 V4(33os)11003

(oo)(1001 (Ji)0'003

(-oi)-0001

(-3ox)-000

(-s13Q)-0003

1Ucc(-1)CPJ 1U D°1J

(u1JQ)0.00

(ooo)11008

vq1iq D°J1'- plqcx(-s843)-o.ooo

(-sa)-ooo

(-I)C1J"

(-1s3)-0003

(-r1)-0003

1'4II (i)11003(iofl)0003

(-1)CpJ Hi 0bGUIJC

o.à3)0033

(-oX.x&0.0X0

ObJuCF030g)osg

(1sox)os.s

1{T EC!J1JC 1�1(-1J38)-0005 (-o)-0001

(-stsi)-0003

(-s1Q3)-WOOS

(-o8i)-0001

(-rxQ)-WOOS

Q0AUJU3U 2Ptrgg&00003

(sxtx)110002

(5Q33)0.0003

(3133)110003

(5.808)0000

(ix'n)110003

IUALWCU 1J0-:3at)-00003

(1082)01)005

(-oQ31)-00001

(-33oo)-0000S

(rsoS)(10005

(-1.333)•O1)00J

bcLcb(-J)CJJ" LGj 0Db

333a0053

(oi)o0o. (is)

11052(ss)01)53

(ot)00O

(35)0O3ô

1�J 0Db bL Cbi19(-OtQO)-0°000

(o8s)01)01

(o22)11001

(-oo)-0001

(-o.x)11001

(-cuii)110001

MUPJ i) (s) (3) (ct) (2) (Q)

(qcbuqcuL AUJC = EDI\ 0Db)

1PIG D6GLW!UIJ1 °L LOL6!U D!LG4 IU24W6U1 IIJ FDC

Page 46: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

/Apu. (1 80) bLoccqnLccouqiuou cuqiu cp bGuoq wb1c i jpJc3 j-iic w b uipcc H0Pf1I LL0L2 PUJCq 11?W

jcuqru qcrwmA 91 2JJOMIJ 'uqn qriuniA = I 't COIWrLA LCciAcq q1r12fUJC1JL jcuqrn OL 0pcL Abc o bojicA-pcq14OfG: WC thGcUjcJou Ju LPI T 0IJJA LCJCAIJL AIJPJG2 011 1L(jG bojic? GXCJUG LC2tL!Cfl0U 1Jq iojq puj

14 T5Ô5

W 05Q 0.1.XJ 0.50\

n1.LuqcL x bwcccq(ooQ3)crooos

(o2)000!

(r00)0005

qcbou(0t.X2)00003

(-It38)-cYOOJ

(-r.x.x3)000T

flLCJJL(-tY33)-00003

(0t3ct)00004

(F01)0001

J2I bAw cbiwi ccornj(ooi)oooo

(050c1)0001

(J5ô4)-0003

JC21 b11Awr CI1LLCIJ iJCC0fTU(sg3)-0.00 (g)-000Q

(T•3)-0003

nitibjc LG2 011 X(-0034)

0000(-s.xxo)iY00

(-roQI)0004

rrjibj LC 011(3.1)01J04 (•)0001

(1•J)0003

2bcCiJ LØLC(-048o)

0001(-311Q)

000Q(-5o3)-0003

vqlrI2wJcIu uqu DflWUJX -0003(-ix4)IYOOS

(-33)-(1003

CPJ !U D01J uq (- I)(0 4o)0.00.x

vq1nq D0II juqcx(-5•3&-000

CP" " WUII (-1)(-1 •83)-(1003

V' ILU.(r8o4)0003

(-i)1U 0bG1JTJC2

(1Yt4)-0•0Q

ObCuIJC(1 84Q)03Q8

AI4P1C (1) () ()(qcbcuqcuL ALTpJ = EDI\ 0Db)

JPPIG 1P 1IJJb4 ou ED1 °L yqn2puGIu uq oJc1-J2Gq j'Guqu

Page 47: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

GUW91G IP!L (JoO) bLoccqnLGqThiwcui juqn qnuu 1G buoq iq wcpiqcq m tp VFCID qipc j-iiijc xu bcupcc opnt GU.0134otG: 5UJC bccjctjou J? w JpJG 3 wbjc mc jnqc oujA rpoc conuiu Icci/uu //OLj BJIC

O8 O85

(vqinwcu r'cnqrIJ DfTWWA = j)ffG4C4G JwbIG

(qcbcuqut AUJC = EDI\ 0Db)LPIG D0 CO1JII4IOII1IIIO I/JG 0 II,jGL6UCG3

L14 14

C0U2W1U

(-o3o)-OOOct

(-ot)O.OOt

(-o5)OOOX

MR uqrn (jci)(-I 3o)-.ôQ'O

MB fUIJ 9? OtODb(-ci TO)O.OOO

jL9C couqioup(oo)00001

(ooxo)00001

(osx)OOOOt

cpcuc coUqitJou9pt\(rto)0005

(rtto)O.OO

(Oôct5)OOO

AjCLO CoUquiomptA(o3)0003

(ioo)cioo3

(n,x)O.o03

0bCVUC22

(n83)ØJQ (v)ØJØ

(•Io)ØJQc

1�1 EXCP9?JC(oo)0000?

(ciQI)OIJOOQ

(ooQ)0000ô

0OLUWGU1 P'-(rTai)00005

(rioi)00005

(r5Jo)01)005

ITJAC2LWGU 1iO(-rooo)-(JJ(3O3

(-so-(JIJOØ3

(-503ct)-013003

C1JJ !'J LJ 0Db bi. crib (-I)(o33)ooo

(oi)ooox

(nx)01)0?

1{1 0Db bCL cbiw(-r353)-oios

(-Tt3)-0005

(-ot)-ciooi

AL!P1C (j) () (3)

Page 48: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

LO

"-40C

a)(Meae

2p Tc0

EJöflLe T: DIecLPnpOU O 2KI6 M9G2 9Uq 4J6 IUTWflW M9a61 a8

0

0-

02 -

Page 49: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

rTC-

C,

—40C

naKMgäG

ETflLG : OI2LIPnP0U 04 nueqjjeq MgaG2 guq JG IUWflW ga6

0

0-5p op

Page 50: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

a,

m)(C)

Ca,

cr(a

a,

bäflL6 3: G9J EXCIJ9UaG g6e U GXICO suq frOLIOCCOASSL

aa TB5 iae iaee aee aao aa3I I I I I I

o IOLOCCO0 H6YU OL VJJ conusa V I16XJCO

Page 51: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

4O1G ED! bcLcGu o LGcibiut 0Db flUh1G1JJiC IACLC OL 2mbJ O COI1WLC J.O-

0

0

A 891SO J83 J8XQ 699 JO8

E!1L6 : iDI uoi o qGA6Jobw comI.! !ôJO-!ôô

0

Page 52: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

oc: LIc1I Iiu IJJ3LI( iIuLoqrrcvou o rLqc LGOLIJJ2

I inI

I —.,

I -in

LI Sl p p

'I

II

IC

I

,I

I,IC

I

1IC

U1

i-s

E!1L6 : jLGU2 In EOLGIU IUAPflGU4

Page 53: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

qnwwiG ncq is rpc n91A cou.cthouq to () couqitioujitA OIJ inc (iucjnqnJ iijcuqiu bopcA couqitiois 1JJIG GGU coqcq into qrrumn€ picp cdcisj I q ricp coIJqtIoIrnJ 1 cutCq JJJC tpLG

nrwur Jcuq!u qnuu ipr. cuJbIG bcL!oq uq coqcq is o oqJcii?J2 iqrw rpc 2rIp-2inJJbJG o COfflJCUC2 LCCCIA11JJJJG //OLJ irn rjJqJIJ 1iJuJpJc nGq in qsc isJJ?2i2 pin pccu coqq in j OL tO2G COflutLiC rpt LccJAq

couq!uoiJpt? uq qt o uubjGwdutnrrou o couquiouprA t qii.cut boIuI2 in tJUJG

pcui1J uq 3 JJJG qariipin wcjnq2 qinij on tpc 2ISC O, jouu tThG o jou qGrnLJcq bopcAiutoinisrtou on JOini? to t torj o conurLjc jp uibjc iucJnqc jj q1ntwcut jOisJ wqcouqitioujirA isiq niJbJGwcurntiou JU J1f11IJJCUt uq OtJJL boJicA-iscq J0isJ2 pC q itpi2c COUtflJ2

coo ciuo cjcr ('cWj) /ipicp COU11IU2 qu on boj!cADt Oil MOLJJ pnuj jGUHJ uq couqitioupt? LC JCCIJ LOW tJJG ftOLj flIJJC2

c \\ 'ç\isJq LCdflJLIJJCU1 O 2IILLCIJCTGL cxboi.r bLocccq2

LGLJCiOtJ Oil bSAUJGUC2 ILl LGbGC( oi cbii ti jctiou: iwbot nqtnucc !wboI4 qcbo2itLtG2 I0L rujboi.t wnjtib1' LGi OL xbo2 LGLJCt1OU2 on bAwcut IIJ LG2bCCI O CflLLGIJt 1LisJCtIOU2CO1GL ipc IOJJO/flhJ LGLLiCtiOLJ: xitucc o 2bccisJ Lf2 0L 2OUJG OL j cbuj tL Jctjou wrrjpbjcCI92CIR C2C qi LG coqq qifUJUJA ASL!P1C t,JJcp drii j ii. BLt!CI1JL LC2IL!cqou cxi jpcA

cc cuc uq MCL ucu to n !u coubtucuscq oui.ist p? 2ifluDt ou o b,?wGut2 L2tLJCtIOU2 MCLC LJ(U LOW pC INL rnct tO

(oi.rpcowiu)HCtOU qtct IjCL nq]fTciIJ OL ipC IUUrIGUCC OU UoU-LqcpJG2 DCt!I SLC qi2cn22cq !U HLLOUJCAC2 MCL t1cCu ILOW IE ?(rIr!c• 1PC q1I1tq D011L WqicG2 ML cowbntcq FLOW rpc 2IUJUJCI2 uq

D1 Oil SAGLnG IJL! JA}2 JUq qntGq D0I!L rnqJC2 HCLC couibijcq pA HLLL2oU JL!1J

(iuicurntiouj bLicc pncH2tOU ffcAiGq bCtJlJ OLq LPI (biiI Q) KI 0Db bL cbTt i xbLcq aJ cou2rIJt OfJL2LGI 0Db bcL cbi IUAGtWGU( L9tIO' oiujwcnt 2pi.c uq obuun cow ILOW tp 2IIUJUJGL2 uq

D OU LDI UOM 1LC tIJCCU LOW fJJ /OL1 UC jO VJ L2e AL!On2 AC2 D OIl

onjA qnuu bi.t o, ipc bcuoq ( yuoJ cowow ojuq j�onsui imou oipcL2)nupjuccq bruc1 !" 1!JL JLjJOIIjJ W02t COftIJ1L1 jmAc q OL pC jpjj 2UJbJC bcuoq owc tc COACLC

jpc iucInqG2 nUIJnJ qt OL COJTUtLIC2 OACL qc jcj-j bcLioq IL ! IJ

-tutuov.

PC fl2 CCU 9nLCJf1 1? woqiq pA KOWIUJ (io)tiLq rnq jpoL UJL(Gt AnLinpJc pA vpoq (o i) ipc LGCLC isiq qGACJObLJJCIJI ALJ1C 12 WJCCU I,LOW

DW jOL LJJI2 2GCIIOU LG LMU FLOW LJJC WBEJ� bLoqncLMtA qipisc nuJurq to iucjnqc

3CO cc\c OCUt iç OH

D"(' bbGuqJx

Page 54: $lHflM siac eaisia - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · 3111 iom uoivdo 1o1s3thni -- 113u2 as .11ini iii ,noiithbs nsm ibui ,is b3us1q d uoh 3rli3mono33 .em3Idolq 3ff!' 33n3b1v3 no iodsl 2i!1sm

DGW!12 ou rp VICID qpc cu pG omiq u BCWU (JôJy NC%D \22 cucc OL}B"!

9nq bLowot!ou JIJq OIJJCL iiqc bOIICGdrnn1uritiAG LG21UCrJOU f1t1G p!dnc JwboU\GLboL1 JUIJCJIJ nq CLGqU OIJJGL CbOI4 TJCGUt!AG LG1UJGboJc!c2) (p) COUqoupLA ou CXCUG LIG boj!cA uq (c) couqwouA ou iqc (mcprquJ ou uiJboU\cboI4cxbGuqiuac 2flp2TqiG iUiCicr L9IG woucA nbbjA LWc!J nucLuJcqIørLoU bOCJJG 9Uq OfJJGL w9cLo\bslpjic 2GCOLcwbjoAwcu bOJTCIG2 qcpr WTUJCWCIJr pcIqGI qccie bnppc LGCflLLGUI cbcuquntc bnpjic JAG2WJcu\CbiWf


Post Graduate Diploma in Telecom Technology & Managementaigetoachq.org/downloads/PGDTTM/PGDTTM_PROSPECTUS.pdf · NRIs INDEX. Prospectus 2014 iv The Campus . ... of UoH is located

Post Graduate Diploma in Telecom Technology & Managementaigetoachq.org/downloads/PGDTTM/PGDTTM_PROSPECTUS.pdf · NRIs INDEX. Prospectus 2014 iv The Campus . ... of UoH is located

Pramod K Nayar came to the Dept of English at UoH of which ...

Pramod K Nayar came to the Dept of English at UoH of which ...

Escuela de Educación - Ucampus UOH

Escuela de Educación - Ucampus UOH

RECTILUX3FF-S - Transfer Convert · RECTILUX3FF-W RECTILUX3FF-S 1 95mm filter thread (3FF-W) and 72mm filter thread (3FF-S), means affordable and commonly available filters 2 Infinity

RECTILUX3FF-S - Transfer Convert · RECTILUX3FF-W RECTILUX3FF-S 1 95mm filter thread (3FF-W) and 72mm filter thread (3FF-S), means affordable and commonly available filters 2 Infinity

url?u=http-3A r20.rs6.net tn.jsp-3Ff ...

url?u=http-3A r20.rs6.net tn.jsp-3Ff ...

'^wgrad.swu.ac.th/SWU.BACKEND/fileupload/ประกาศทุนวิจัย... · 3. wa'iinnl^innii^'^nv^ Ha-3ff?in7WsiruHnnnw^^nn M aj 4. HwnaaaiiJwa^nnnaaln'Ln'u 1 nun A4

'^wgrad.swu.ac.th/SWU.BACKEND/fileupload/ประกาศทุนวิจัย... · 3. wa'iinnl^innii^'^nv^ Ha-3ff?in7WsiruHnnnw^^nn M aj 4. HwnaaaiiJwa^nnnaaln'Ln'u 1 nun A4

Episode épidémique ERV CHU de Toulouse, hiver 08-09 S. Malavaud UOH CHU S. Van de Steene ARLIN Midi-Pyrénées.

Episode épidémique ERV CHU de Toulouse, hiver 08-09 S. Malavaud UOH CHU S. Van de Steene ARLIN Midi-Pyrénées.

Faktor kematian ibui

Faktor kematian ibui

UOH Dispatch Vol.8 | Issue12 | Pages8

UOH Dispatch Vol.8 | Issue12 | Pages8

SATUAN ACARA PENGAJARAN 3FF 104 - Nadjeeb's Blog · PDF fileSATUAN ACARA PENGAJARAN 3FF 104 – Botani Farmasi Dosen Pengampuh : Aktsar Roskiana Ahmad, S.Farm, M.Farm, Apt Tujuan Instrusional

SATUAN ACARA PENGAJARAN 3FF 104 - Nadjeeb's Blog · PDF fileSATUAN ACARA PENGAJARAN 3FF 104 – Botani Farmasi Dosen Pengampuh : Aktsar Roskiana Ahmad, S.Farm, M.Farm, Apt Tujuan Instrusional

Academics use of iPads at UoH

Academics use of iPads at UoH

MSc Syll Math-uoh

MSc Syll Math-uoh

Catalogue 3ff

Catalogue 3ff

3FF BOOKLET_PDF

3FF BOOKLET_PDF

Formación virtual en la UOH Aprendizajes de una nueva ...

Formación virtual en la UOH Aprendizajes de una nueva ...

Syllabus MGU BTech 26-03-3ff

Syllabus MGU BTech 26-03-3ff

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS · Aos amigos Pataxó: Ibui, Henrique, Gabriel, Diovania, Regi, Amagilda e Vazigton e os amigos Xakriabá: Cidinho, Ariclenes, Olivia e Geno pelas

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS · Aos amigos Pataxó: Ibui, Henrique, Gabriel, Diovania, Regi, Amagilda e Vazigton e os amigos Xakriabá: Cidinho, Ariclenes, Olivia e Geno pelas

Academics use of iPads @ UoH (Leicester Presentation)

Academics use of iPads @ UoH (Leicester Presentation)

3ff Calendar final - WordPress.com · 03/12/2017  · Title: 3ff Calendar final.ppp Author: SMA_Justice Created Date: 11/27/2017 5:13:54 PM

3ff Calendar final - WordPress.com · 03/12/2017  · Title: 3ff Calendar final.ppp Author: SMA_Justice Created Date: 11/27/2017 5:13:54 PM

UOH Dispatch Vol.8 | Issue8 | Pages8

UOH Dispatch Vol.8 | Issue8 | Pages8