Lezione Ripasso micro- 2 Prof. Giorgia...
Transcript of Lezione Ripasso micro- 2 Prof. Giorgia...
Giorgia Giovannetti 1
Lezione 2 I concetti fondamentali della
microeconomia
Prof. Giorgia Giovannetti [email protected]
Facoltà di IngegneriaElementi di Economia Applicata
Piano della lezione• Ancora qualche elemento generale
sull’economia mondiale e i maggiori cambiamenti degli ultimi 20 anni (definizione di offshoring e outsourcing)
• Dietro l’economia dell’innovazione: importanza della R&S, ruoli degli ingegneri, PhD, etc
• I concetti fondamentali della micro – prima parte
Negli ultimi 20 anni, lo scenario internazionale e’ cambiato (davvero?)
• Aumento del peso delle economie emergenti (Cina e India in particolare) – sul Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL) mondiale – sul commercio mondiale– sugli Investimenti Diretti Esteri (IDE)
• Quota paesi sviluppati su export e commercio mondiali scende mentre sale la quota economie emergenti (BRIC e NIE)
• La produzione internazionale viene frammentata (offshoring e outsourcing), anche grazie a banda larga e diminuzione costi
ÈÈ indubbioindubbio che lche l’’attivitattivitàà economica si sia economica si sia spostata ad estspostata ad est……
E E CinaCina e India e India stannostanno sorpassandosorpassando I I paesipaesi del G6del G6……..
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
UK US
France Germany Japan
G6
Italy France Germany
Italy
Germany Japan
Russia
Brazil
India
China
BRICs
Italy
France
*cars indicate when BRICs US$GDP exceeds US$GDP in the G6
Germany
A A prezziprezzi correnticorrenti ilil PIL PIL delladella CinaCina e e delldell’’India aumenta ma India aumenta ma èè ancora lontano da quello dei paesi industrialiancora lontano da quello dei paesi industriali
Source: IMF WEO 2007
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
USA EURO AREA CHINA JAPAN INDIA
US
Euro Area
Japan
ChinaIndia
Digressione:PPP versus the Market: which weight?
• Two main methods of conversion• One uses market exchange rates —the rate prevailing in the foreign
exchange market (using either the rate at the end of the period or an average over the period).
• The other uses the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate —the rate at which the currency of one country would have to be converted into that of another country to buy the same amount of goods and services in each country.
• To understand PPP, let's take a commonly used example, the price of a hamburger. If a hamburger is selling in London for £2 and in New York for $4, this would imply a PPP exchange rate of 1 pound to 2 U.S. dollars. This PPP exchange rate may well be different from that prevailing in financial markets (so that the actual dollar cost of a hamburger in London may be either more or less than the $4 it sells for in New York). This type of cross- country comparison is the basis for the well-known "Big Mac" index, which is published by the Economist magazine and calculates PPP exchange rates based on the McDonald's sandwich that sells in nearly identical form in many countries around the world.
In China, for example, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates.
In America, the same burger averages $3.71
October 2010
Vantaggi della PPP• A main one is that PPP exchange rates are relatively stable over
time. By contrast, market rates are more volatile. Another drawback of market-based rates is that they are relevant only for internationally traded goods. Non-traded goods and services tend to be cheaper in low-income than in high-income countries.
• A haircut in New York is more expensive than in Lima; the price of a taxi ride of the same distance is higher in Paris than in Tunis; etc. Indeed, because wages tend to be lower in poorer countries, and services are often relatively labor intensive, the price of a haircut in Lima is likely to be cheaper than in New York even when the cost of making tradable goods, such as machinery, is the same in both countries. Any analysis that fails to take into account these differences in the prices of non-traded goods across countries will underestimate the purchasing power of consumers in emerging market and developing countries and, consequently, their overall welfare. For this reason, PPP is generally regarded as a better measure of overall well-being.
Svantaggi della PPP• The biggest one is that PPP is harder to
measure than market-based rates. The ICP is a huge statistical undertaking, and new price comparisons are available only at infrequent intervals. Methodological questions have also been raised about earlier surveys. In between survey dates, the PPP rates have to be estimated, which can introduce inaccuracies into the measurement. Also, the ICP does not cover all countries, which means that data for missing countries have to be estimated.
Si hanno risultati diversi?• So how fast is the global economy growing? Using
PPP, the latest WEO estimates that global growth was 5.1 percent in 2006, but only 3.8 percent at market rates.
• Who contributes more to global growth, China or the United States? Using PPP it's China. But using market rates, the United States wins out.
• Which country is richer, Canada or Switzerland? Even among advanced countries, the choice of weights can matter. Using market rates, per capita income in Switzerland exceeds that in Canada, but when PPP rates are used the situation is reversed.
E E frafra paesipaesi cici sonosono differenzedifferenze incredibiliincredibili ……..
• Riprendiamo le mappe
AbbiamoAbbiamo vistovisto la la mappamappa dove la dove la dimensionedimensione èè ilil PIL del PIL del paesepaese……
(al 2000)
Una dove la dimensione rappresenta la proporzione della ricchezza nel paese, aggiustando
il PIL per la Parità dei Poteri di Acquisto, 2002
Se invece la dimensione dei paesi dipende dalla popolazione, il quadro è ben diverso....
E vediamo che California e Francia hanno lo stesso reddito….
Come peraltro Italia e Qatar….
Offshoring: ExxonMobil
• Upstream: exploration in 37 countries and “production” in 26 countries
• Downstream: refining and “marketing”– Owns 45 refineries, located in 25 countries – Operates 37,000 retail sites in 100+ countries
• “presence in about 200 countries”
ExxonMobil’s “Upstream” Sites
ExxonMobil’s “Downstream” Sites
OffshoringOffshoring, definizioni, definizioni
Offshoring: ora e in passato
• Ikea established production facilities in Poland in the 1970s
• Also service offshoring is not new• In then 1980s Swissair had moved a lot of
its accounting tasks in India• City of London moved to India computer
maintainance• However in the last two decades strong
increase
Problemi dell’ Outsourcing
Giorgia Giovannetti 28
Dietro l’economia dell’innovazione
• Scoperte e innovazione sono molto incerte• E’ difficile appropriarsene• Una R&S efficiente può richiedere l’intervento
attivo dei decisori pubblici • R&S ≠
conoscenza utile
• Le innovazioni spesso hanno molte complementarietà di input (joint R&D ventures, infrastructures networks, etc.) e output (prodotti futuri, etc.)
• Spesso c’è path-dependence nei processi innovativi
Giorgia Giovannetti 29
Dietro l’economia dell’innovazione
• La struttura di mercato influenza l’innovazione (e viceversa)
• La proprietà intellettuale e industriale influenza la R&S e il processo innovativo.
• R&S e l’innovazione non solo influenzano la crescita ma anche il mercato del lavoro e la distribuzione del reddito
• L’innovazione può far aumentare le possibilità ma non tutti guadagnano ⇒ L’economia politica può determinare l’innovazione nella società
Giorgia Giovannetti 30
Dietro l’economia dell’innovazione
• Mentre molte fortune sono state create o rubando o introducendo un prodotto innovativo (normalmente per consumo di massa)
• 90% dei brevetti non produce alcun valore ⇒ R&S e innovazione non sono strategie semplici per le imprese ⇒ il finanziamento dell’innovazione non è banale. E’ difficile collateralizzare il capitale della conoscenza
Giorgia Giovannetti 31
Dietro l’economia dell’innovazione
• Ben lontano dall’idea dell’inventore isolato • R&S e l’innovazione coinvolgono in una
certa misura l’interna società• Test per la salute della società!⇒ capire l’economia della R&S e
dell’innovazione implica capire molti legami sociali e economici
Giorgia Giovannetti 32
Dietro la teoria dell’innovazione
• L’unico problema è che l’economia dell’innovazione deve ancora andare molto avanti.
• Nello stesso tempo, l’UE ha fissato un obiettivo molto alto per la società della conoscenza e per la R&S dell’Europa.
Giorgia Giovannetti 33
Ambizione o necessità?• Concilio Europeo di Lisbona, 2000
trasformare l‘economia Europea “nell’ economia della conoscenza più competitiva e dinamica nel mondo”
• Concilio Europeo Barcellona, 2002 ha imposto un limite quantitativo: 3% del PIL per le spese di R&S
• Obiettivi non raggiunti (anche per la crisi economica finanziaria del 2008-2009):Stiamo andando per la strada giusta alla velocità
adeguata?Vediamo i dati
Giorgia Giovannetti 34
Il ‘gap’ con gli Stati
Uniti aumenta
A guardare i dati non sembra.......
Occupati in R&S
0 5 10 15 20 25
ChinaTurkey (2004)MexicoSouth Africa (2004)Portugal PolandHungaryItaly (2004)Slovak RepublicGreece Ireland Czech RepublicSpainKoreaEU27 (2004)Netherlands (2003)Austria GermanyCanada (2004)Australia (2004)Switzerland (2004)BelgiumNorwayRussian FederationNew Zealand (2003)France (2004)Luxembourg JapanDenmark Sweden (2001)Finland
Researchers Others
Il gap dell’Italia è enorme
Giorgia Giovannetti 36
Qualcuno sta “chiudendo” il ‘gap’ Ricercatori / 1000 attivi
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
US Jp UE Fin Al Fr It Esp Port Chile
1990*2002*
Crescita annuale # ricercatori 1995-2002*
Esp. 3,6%; UE 1,5% ; US 2,2% ; It. –1,15%; Fin. 5,8%
Giorgia Giovannetti 37
La necessità di risorse umane
• Per raggiungere l’obiettivo del 3% nel 2010 la CE aveva stimato che nella UE c’era bisogno di:– circa 1.2 milioni in più di personale di ricerca,
incluso– 700 000 ricercatori addizionali
Formazione di PhD in Scienza e Ingegneria (S&I), 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Chi
le
Fran
ce
Irela
nd
Sw
eden
Can
ada
Isra
el
Est
onia
Bel
gium
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Icel
and
(200
6)
Slo
veni
a
Italy
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Finl
and
Nor
way
New
Zea
land
Sw
itzer
land
Aus
tria
Den
mar
k
Spa
in
Aus
tralia
Japa
n
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Por
tuga
l
Ger
man
y
Kor
ea
Pol
and
Net
herla
nds
Hun
gary
Turk
ey
Mex
ico
Gre
ece
% Science Engineering
In 2007, Brazil, China, India andthe Russian Federation, taken together,trained half as many doctoral graduatesas OECD countries, taken together.
International students as a percentage of all tertiary enrolments, 2007
05
1015
2025
Aus
tralia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Sw
itzer
land
New
Zea
land
Aus
tria
Irela
nd
nada
(200
2-20
06)
Bel
gium
OE
CD
EU
19
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Icel
and
Net
herla
nds
Finl
and
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Hun
gary
Japa
n
Nor
way
Spa
in
Est
onia
Slo
veni
a
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
%
2004
Mobilita’ degli studenti di dottorato percentuale di chi ha passato periodi di studio all’estero negli
ultimi 10 anni
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Chy
pre
Dan
emar
k
Esp
agne
Bel
giqu
e
Aut
riche
Por
tuga
l
Rép
ubliq
uetc
hèqu
e
Bul
garie
Rép
ubliq
uesl
ovaq
ue
Pol
ogne
Lith
uani
e
% Total UE27 États-Unis Autres pays
39
43
50
57
31
22
27
20 24
14
14
20
11910
8
Total university degrees
S&E university degrees
Doctorate degrees
S&E doctorate degrees
EU19
United States
Other
Japan
PhD stranieri negli USA
China3 448
Korea1 170
South America (excl. Brazil), 386
Other countries, 291
Brazil, 156
Pacific-Australasia, 177
Other East Asia, 190
Mexico, 206
Japan, 211
Thailand, 251
Turkey, 340
Canada, 365
Otros2 573
3 biggest European (Germany, France, UK)
400
West Asia (excl. Turkey)
1 734
Europe (excl. 3 biggest)
1 343
Africa 406
Chinese Taipei 442
PhD stranieri negli USA- 2
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
1996 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 2005 0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
S&E doctorates awarded to US citizens
… to foreign citizens with temporary visas
… to foreign citizens with permanent visas
S&E postdocs appointment to foreigncitizens with temporary visas
… to foreign citizens with permanent visasor to US citizens
North / Central America
South America
Europe
West Asia
Pacif ic/Australasia
Africa
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1996 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 2005
Giorgia Giovannetti 44
PhD in Scienze e Ingegneria in US
Giorgia Giovannetti 45
I talenti stranieri
Giorgia Giovannetti 46
Il PISA report sul rendimento scolastico
• The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)
• Studenti di 15 anni
• Test normalizzato su lettura, matematica e comprensione scientifica
• Nel 2009 in 87% della popolazione mondiale inclusa
Performance nella lettura
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.11b
Performance in matematica
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1c
Performance in science
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.2c
Giorgia Giovannetti 50
Performance vs. PIL
Giorgia Giovannetti 51
Performance vs. Spese per studente
Change in science performance between 2006 and 2009
Science performance
improvedScience
performance declined
Employer enterprise birth rate (2006) and death rate (2005) in the manufacturing sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Nor
way
Aus
tria
Sw
eden
Spa
in
Slo
veni
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Isra
el
Den
mar
k
Finl
and
New
Zea
land
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Hun
gary
Italy
Bra
zil
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Est
onia
Can
ada
Birth rate Death rate%
Employer enterprise birth rate (2006) and death rate (2005) in the services sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Nor
way
Isra
el
Slo
veni
a
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Aus
tria
Sw
eden
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Finl
and
Bra
zil
Spa
in
New
Zea
land
Hun
gary
Can
ada
Italy
Den
mar
k
Luxe
mbo
urg
Est
onia
Por
tuga
l
Birth rate Death rate%
Government budget appropriations or outlays for R&D, 2007
01
23
45
67
8
Spa
in
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Kor
ea
Finl
and
Can
ada
(200
4-06
)
Fran
ce
Sw
eden
Icel
and
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Aus
tria
Italy
(200
5-08
)
Nor
way
Slo
veni
a
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Ger
man
y
Den
mar
k
Uni
ted
King
dom
Irela
nd
Pol
and
Luxe
mbo
urg
Bel
gium
Hun
gary
(200
5-08
)
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Gre
ece
2004
OECD countries’ stimulus packagesfor science, R&D and innovation rangedfrom 0.1% to 0.3% of GDP
Government budget appropriations or outlays for R&D by selected socio-
economic objectives, 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
OE
CD
(200
7)
Fran
ce
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Kor
ea
Spa
in
EU
27
Sw
eden
Aus
tralia
Ger
man
y
Japa
n
Nor
way
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Can
ada
(200
7)
Pol
and
Finl
and
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Net
herla
nds
Italy
Gre
ece
(200
7)
Hun
gary
Sw
itzer
land
(200
6)
Den
mar
k
Por
tuga
l
Bel
gium
Aus
tria
Icel
and
Irela
nd
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mex
ico
(200
6)
New
Zea
land
% Defence Economic development Health and environment Non-oriented General University Funds Other
Business enterprise expenditure on R&D, 2008Is
rael
Sw
eden
(199
9-20
08)
Finl
and
Japa
n (1
998-
2007
)K
orea
Sw
itzer
land
(200
0-08
)U
nite
d S
tate
sS
inga
pore
Den
mar
kA
ustri
aG
erm
any
OE
CD
Icel
and
Bel
gium
Luxe
mbo
urg
(200
0-08
)Fr
ance
Aus
tralia
(199
8-20
06)
EU
27U
nite
d K
ingd
omS
love
nia
Chi
na (1
998-
2007
)C
anad
aIre
land
Cze
ch R
epub
licN
ethe
rland
sN
orw
ay (1
999-
2008
)P
ortu
gal
Spa
inR
ussi
an F
eder
atio
nIta
lyS
outh
Afri
ca (2
001-
07)
Hun
gary
New
Zea
land
(199
9-20
07)
Turk
eyS
lova
k R
epub
licP
olan
dM
exic
o (1
998-
2007
)R
oman
iaG
reec
e (1
999-
2007
)A
rgen
tina
(199
8-20
07)
01
23
45 %
1998
Direct and indirect government funding of business R&D and tax incentives for R&D,
2007
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
Uni
ted
Stat
es (2
008)
Fran
ce (2
008)
Kor
ea (2
008)
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Spa
in
Sw
eden
Aus
tria
Finl
and
Nor
way
(200
8)
Ger
man
y
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
(200
8)
Icel
and
(200
8)
Bel
gium
Luxe
mbo
urg
Den
mar
k (2
008)
Hun
gary
Aus
tralia
(200
6)
Irela
nd
New
Zea
land Italy
Switz
erla
nd (2
008)
Japa
n
Turk
ey
Slov
ak R
epub
lic (2
008)
Net
herla
nds
Can
ada
(200
8)
Por
tuga
l
Pol
and
Mex
ico
Gre
ece
(200
5)
% Indirect government support through R&D tax incentives Direct government funding of BERD
Italy
GERD as % of GDP
BERD as % of GDP
Venture capital as % GDP
Triadic patents per million population
Scientific articles per million population
% of firms with new‐to‐market product innovations (as a % of all firms)
% of firms undertaking non‐technological innovation (as a % of all firms)% of firms collaborating (as a % of all firms)
Patents with foreign co‐inventors
% of GERD financed by abroad
Researchers per thousand total employment
Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees
HRST occupations as % of total employment
Ita ly Average
Italy - Science and engineering degrees, 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
China
(200
5)Ge
rman
y
Fran
ce
Spain
Japan
Unite
d King
dom
Italy
OECD
aver
age
Israe
lNo
rway
Unite
d Stat
es
%
Spain
GERD as % of GDP
BERD as % of GDP
Venture capital as % GDP
Triadic patents per million population
Scientific articles per mill ion population
% of firms with new‐to‐market product innovations (as a % of all firms)
% of firms undertaking non‐technological innovation (as a % of all firms)% of firms collaborating (as a % of all firms)
Patents with foreign co‐inventors
% of GERD financed by abroad
Researchers per thousand total employment
Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees
HRST occupations as % of total employment
Spain Average
UK
GERD as % of GDP
BERD as % of GDP
Venture capital as % GDP
Triadic patents per million population
Scientific articles per million population
% of firms with new‐to‐market product innovations (as a % of all firms)
% of firms undertaking non‐technological innovation (as a % of all firms)% of fi rms collaborating (as a % of all firms)
Patents with foreign co‐inventors
% of GERD financed by abroad
Researchers per thousand total employment
Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees
HRST occupations as % of total employment
United Kingdom Average
US
GERD as % of GDP
BERD as % of GDP
Venture capital as % GDP
Triadic patents per million population
Scientific articles per million population
AAGR patents
Share of services in business R&DBusiness funded R&D in the HE and GOV sectors
Patents with foreign co‐inventors
R&D expenditure of foreign affi l iates as % R&D expenditure
Researchers per thousand total employment
Science & Engineering degrees as % of all new degrees
HRST occupations as % of total employment
United States Average
Giorgia Giovannetti 65
1. Questo corso...• Diverse prospettive (storica, macro, micro, mercato, impresa,
legal, scientific, political economy & public policy)• Approcci diversi (storico descrittivo analitico, case cases …)• Metodi (lezioni, dibattiti, papers)• Obiettivi: capire (i) la complessità dell’economia, (ii)
importanza dell’economia dell’innovazione, (iii) come si può “scommettere” sui tassi di cambio; (iv) importanza del contesto (incertezza/certezza); (v) analisi costi benefici (vi) leggere le pagine economiche dei giornali………..
Cenni di microeconomia
• Elasticità• Costo di produzione• Massimizzazione del profitto• Concorrenza perfetta• Monopolio• Discriminazione di prezzo• Teoria dei giochi
Elasticità
• Misura della sensibilità di una variabile rispetto a un’altra.
• Esempio: la domanda si riduce all’aumentare del prezzo. Ma di quanto ?
• ELASTICITA’ della domanda al prezzo: Variazione % di Q in risposta a +1% di P
)(%)(%
PQE D
P ΔΔ=
=ΔΔ= )/(
)/(PP
QQE DDP
PQ
QPE D
DP Δ
Δ•=
Elasticità della domanda: determinanti
• Il bene è sostituibile?• E’ un bene necessario?• E’ un bene complementare ad altri?• Solitamente l’elasticità della domanda di
mercato dipende dalla definizione del mercato stesso: definizione ampia = domanda più
rigidadefinizione ristretta = domanda più elastica
PQ
QPE D
DP Δ
Δ•=
Casi estremi
Iperbole: elasticità costante (=1)
Concorrenza perfetta: curva di offerta
Elasticità dell’offerta: determinanti• Flessibilità nell’uso dei fattori e della
tecnologia, per rispondere in modo rapido a variazioni del prezzo di mercato
• Presenza o assenza di fattori specifici in quantità limitata o altri vincoli di capacità
0)(%)(% ≥Δ
Δ= PQE O
P