LEVERAGING THE LATEST HOUSING MARKET TRENDS TO HELP ... · Negative equity at lowest level since Q1...

LEVERAGING THE LATEST HOUSING MARKET TRENDS TO HELP DISTRESSED HOMEOWNERS

© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

WHAT WE’LL COVER

• A bit about RealtyTrac

• Where have all the foreclosures gone?

– Markets bucking the downward trend

– Shadow inventory?

– Zombie foreclosures and occupied REOs

• Risks remain

– Underwater homeowners

– Zombie foreclosures and occupied REOs

– Non-performing loan sales

• Home prices lifting all boats

– Rising equity: non-distressed and distressed

– Fewer short sales, more auctions and bank-owned sales

• Institutional investors, cash buyers and flippers

– What happens when institutional investors pull out of a market?

– Effect of international buyers


FORECLOSURE TRENDS FIRST QUARTER 2014

• U.S. Foreclosure continues downward trend with a handful exceptions

– U.S. foreclosure activity at lowest level since Q2 2007

– Foreclosure starts increased from year ago in 19 states

– Scheduled foreclosure auctions increased from a year ago in 29 states

• Occupied REOs still a problem

– More than half of 483,224 bank-owned homes nationwide still occupied

– Banks will likely be more aggressive in coming months to evict occupants

– REOS sold in first quarter took an average of 226 days to sell, up 34 percent from a year ago.

• Average time to complete foreclosure still climbing nationwide

– Up to 572 days on average nationwide

– New Jersey overtakes New York as state with longest process (1,103 days)


FORECLOSURE STARTS


SCHEDULED FORECLOSURE AUCTIONS


TIME TO FORECLOSE


TIME TO SELL FORECLOSURES


FORECLOSURE TRENDS APRIL 2014

• Overall foreclosure activity continues path back to normal

– 115,000 properties with foreclosure filings in April, down 20 percent from year ago, representing the 43rd consecutive month where activity decreased annually

– Normal is about 85,000 a month, and the peak was 367,000 in March 2010.

• Bank Repossessions were up from a year ago in 16 states

– Judicial states: New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland

– Non-judicial states: Oregon, California, Nevada

• Banks turning attention to clearing out stubborn shadow inventory

– Silver lining is that these additional REOs in some areas mean more inventory will soon be listed for sale in a market that is starved for inventory.

– In some areas these are bottom-of-the-barrel properties that will need rehab


HISTORICAL U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY


STATES WITH HIGHEST FORECLOSURE RATES


STATES WITH BIGGEST JUMPS IN BANK-OWNED HOMES


ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES

• Vacant foreclosures account for more than one in five properties in the foreclosure process. – More than 150,000 nationwide

– Added to 500,000 bank-owned properties

• In part an unintended consequence of long foreclosure timelines – Biggest increases in non-judicial states

– Some of longest average zombie lifespans in non-judicial states


ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES


STATES WITH MOST ZOMBIES


STATES WITH MOST ZOMBIES AND REOS COMBINED


LIFESPAN OF ZOMBIES


LEVERAGING OPPORTUNITY WITH FORECLOSURE TRENDS

• Age of grace for distressed homeowners coming to an end

– More urgency to do a short sale or other foreclosure alternative

• The shadow is shorter, and taking longer to materialize

– Less competition from bandwagon agents no longer working distressed market

• Targeting distressed homeowner niches may be most effective

– Zombies: short sales in search of an agent

– Occupied REOs: listings in limbo


NEGATIVE EQUITY

• Negative equity at lowest level since Q1 2012

– 9.1 million properties seriously underwater, 17 percent of all homes with mortgage

– Down from 12.8 million seriously underwater, representing 29 percent of all homes with mortgage in Q2 2012.

• More foreclosures with equity

– 35 percent of properties in foreclosure process have equity

– Up from 24 percent a year ago

• More homeowners are equity rich or have resurfacing equity

– 9.9 million equity rich (19 percent of all mortgages)

– 8.5 million equity resurfacing (16 percent of all mortgages


NEGATIVE EQUITY


NEGATIVE EQUITY AND HOME PRICES


FORECLOSURES WITH EQUITY


LEVERAGING OPPORTUNITY WITH HOME EQUITY TRENDS

• Long tail of short sales

– Will take years for many underwater owners to regain equity

– Many will encounter a sales trigger before they regain equity

• Distress without the mess: foreclosures with equity

– Many may not know they now have equity

– Those without equity today may have equity tomorrow


SALES AND HOME PRICES FIRST QUARTER AND MARCH

• Signs of life after a slow winter

– U.S. sales volume up monthly after 4 months flat or declining

– Sales prices up monthly after 6 months flat or declining

• Price appreciation cooling in some of first markets to bounce back

– San Francisco, Detroit, Cape Coral, Phoenix, Atlanta

• Distressed sales down long-term but up from previous quarter – Biggest increases in foreclosure auction sales and REO sales,

indicating banks pushing through old inventory


MEDIAN HOME PRICES


HPA COOLING IN SOME OF HOTTEST MARKETS


DISTRESSED SALES


LEVERAGING OPPORTUNITY WITH HOME PRICE TRENDS

• Window of opportunity to sell may be closing for distressed sellers

• Slowing home prices mean many may have to give up hope of regaining equity in near future

• Banks are less inclined to do short sales because they know they can get the properties sold at auction or as bank-owned


CASH SALES AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

• Cash buyers still king

– 43 percent of all U.S. residential sales in first quarter were cash sales

– Tight lending, uptick in interest rates, low inventory

– 52 percent were to investors, 48 percent to owner-occupants

• Institutional investors cautiously opportunistic

– 5.6 percent of all sales in first quarter, down from 7.0 percent a year ago

– Jumping back in when more inventory at right price becomes available

• Institutional investor pullback seems to be sending HPA negative in some markets

– Jacksonville, Fla. & Greensboro, N.C.


CASH BUYERS & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS


HOME FLIPPING

• Flippers behaving more rationally in this recovery

– Fewer flips compared to year ago but bigger profits

– Longer time to flip indicates more rehab

• Flippers are still in good position because of low inventory and slow pace of home building

• Bigger rehab translates into more ROI – up to a very specific point

– More expenditure on rehab = bigger ROI up to 23 percent of original purchase price spent on rehab.


FLIPPING


INTERNATIONAL BUYERS

• From 2009 to 2013 RealtyTrac subscriber activity from foreign countries up 125 percent

• Biggest increases in United Arab Emirates (up 352 percent), Switzerland (up 270 percent) and China (up 254 percent).

• Biggest share of international subscriber activity from Canada (45 percent), UK, Australia, China and Mexico


INTERNATIONAL BUYERS


LEVERAGING OPPORTUNITY WITH INVESTORS, CASH BUYERS

• Connect motivated sellers with motivated buyers

• Scenario 1

– Motivated seller: homeowner in pre-foreclosure occupying a property in decent condition

– Motivated buyer: international cash buyer ready to act quickly

• Scenario 2

– Motivated seller: homeowner in pre-foreclosure who has vacated property (zombie)

– Motivated buyer: flipper willing to do rehab

• Scenario 3

– Motivated seller: bank with occupied REO they need to sell

– Motivated buyer: institutional investor that may be willing to allow homeowner to stay on as renter


DAREN BLOMQUIST VICE PRESIDENT, REALTYTRAC [email protected]


THANK YOU!

mailto:[email protected]

LEVERAGING THE LATEST HOUSING MARKET TRENDS TO HELP ... · Negative equity at lowest level since Q1...

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