LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES...

3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2015

LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES TO SUPPORTOCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) DEVELOPMENT

IN MALAYSIA

Suzanne Ong Gui Xian

M. Phil Candidate

Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

3rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ ©SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER, 20151

Main Supervisor:

Dr. Akbariah Mahdzir

Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology


Co-Supervisor:

Dr. Aini Suzana Ariffin

Perdana School of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy



Contents

2

Research Problem

Objective

Research Design

Proposed Roadmap Presentation


Megatrend: Energy Scenario

3

Source: Prof. Maulud (2014)


What will be the most dominant energy carrier in 21st century?


Source: Ibrahim Dincer (2008)

HYDROGEN

OILCOAL

NG

MOST DOMINANT ENERGY CARRIER IN 21ST CENTURY?

Note: Chilled WaterLiquid N2, Liquid CO2

5

Fig. 1. Evolution of global market shares of different final- energy carriers for the period 1990-2100 based

on the scenario by Barreto et al. The alcohols category includes methanol and ethanol


2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OTEC 0 0 134 2,848 7,884 15,768 27,594 47,304 59,129

Fuel Cell 0 0 16 354 1,665 4,054 11,603 27,782 53,194

Bioenergy 809 1,455 1,567 4,088 7,553 12,535 14,832 17,823 21,049

Wind Energy 0 0 547 1,095 2,601 5,913 10,052 14,520 18,922

Solar PV 7 437 790 1,579 2,631 3,999 6,314 9,502 11,913

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 12,264 12,264 12,264 12,264 11,650

Wave/ Tidal/ Current 0 0 219 548 751 3,548 5,868 7,603 9,662

Hydropower 9,056 9,084 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531

Geothermal 0 0 216 382 531 1,264 2,122 3,174 4,318

Fossil Fuel 124,596 134,571 151,656 165,891 165,388 169,623 169,661 155,798 146,047

Total 134,468 145,547 164,675 186,316 210,800 238,500 269,841 305,300 345,417

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

6

Electricity Generation by Energy Source, GWh

Source: ASM TF CFE (2015)


2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OTEC 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 6.6 10.2 15.5 17.1

Fuel Cell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 4.3 9.1 15.4

Bioenergy 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.1

Wind Energy 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.5

Solar PV 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4

Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.4

Wave/ Tidal/ Current 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.8

Hydropower 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.8

Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3

Fossil Fuel 92.7 92.5 92.1 89.0 78.5 71.1 62.9 51.0 42.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

7

Source: ASM TF CFE (2015)

Shares of Energy Sources in Electricity Generation, %


Research Objectives

To explore landscape and readiness for Malaysia in developing the OTEC industry

To propose an OTEC- Hydrogen Industry Roadmap.

8

1.

2.


Research Design

9

OTEC Roadmap Conceptualization & Development For Malaysia

Qualitative Approach

Case Study Method

Roadmapping and Complexity Theory

Development

Interview Protocol

Data Collection 1 Data Collection 2 Data Collection 3

Report Writing Report Writing Report Writing

Constant Comparative Analysis

Develop Proposed Roadmap

Technique:

[Doc Analysis, Environmental

Scanning Seminar, Focus

group, Semi-structured interview]

Develop Roadmap

TemplateCase Selection


Strategic Landscape

Kehoe, (2013) reiterates that a,

“―multi-national vision, strategy and collaboration is needed to; conduct fundamental and applied OTEC research, develop a stable market

structure for OTEC, identify areas suitable for development, perform in situ environmental studies, build a trained OTEC workforce, contracting services and infrastructure, improve performance and reduce costs, and

resolve grid integration issues.”

10


Foresight for OTEC Development

Anticipating & managing change

Enables stakeholders

to wisely create their futures

Systematic, participatory and interactive approach

Policy implications

11


Roadmaps and Development

Companies and governments in France, Japan, the Philippinesand South Korea have developed roadmaps for OTEC or Ocean Energy development

Source: (Brochard, 2013; Marasigan, 2013; Kim and Yeo, 2013; Okamura, 2013)

Indonesia is mapping its OTEC potential, and the Philippines has been considering feed-in tariffs for OTEC.

12

Source: (Suprijo, 2012; NREB, 2012)


DCNS, 2013


Lockheed Martin


Philippines


South Korea


TECHNOLOGY PUSH &

MARKET PULL

17


Hydrogen is a high-value OTEC product

18


Main Market Drivers

Socialand

economic factors.

19


Driver

Government support is one of the most important requirements for pushing the OTEC industry with hydrogen as a

product.

Policy could be used as a tool to prompt a new market.

20


Source: Prof Wan Ramli Wan Daud (2006)


Future Direction for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration Measures

22

(CURRENT)

2015:

Phase 1

Dramatic expansion

of hydrogen

awareness and use

(Full fledged

introduction of fuel

cells into society)

2020:

Phase 2

Full-fledged

introduction of

hydrogen power

generation/

Establishment of a

large scale system

for supplying

hydrogen

2030

Phase 3

Establishment of a

hydrogen supply

system throughout

the manufacturing

process

Anticipating energy demand growth

1.

2.

3.


Legal & regulation

University courses on sustainable energy ie. OTEC, H2 commercial

uses, H2 exports

Electrolysis

Joint research-Uni & RI

Hydrogen and OTEC

companies

Research grants on cost effective process for H2

harvesting

UTM-OTEC

CenterReforming

Subsidized H2 for

consumer

Advertisement on busses

Ammonia (fertilizer

industry), electricity, oil refining

Bus Boats

Hydrogen pipeline

Supplying het &

electricity

Hydrogen bomb

Strategic Landscape Roadmap for OTEC Product: HydrogenShort Term (2015)Timelines Medium Term (2016 – 2020) Long Term (2021 – 2030)

Applications

Technology

Trends

and

Drivers

Programs/

Projects

Advanced materials Efficient, robust, reliable Cheaper

Superconductor (more efficient process) Intelligent sensor- wiper, lights, air con

Use carbon nano tubes (for storage)

Standards Safety compliance

Resources

Advertisement/ Promotions:

Awareness through

movies, dramas &

entertainment; ie. Interstellar

promotes

wormholes, blackholes, etc.

Regulatory:

Policy & Industry incentives to

encourage OTEC technology

adoption

Human Resource: H2 logistic experts, H2 harvest engineers

Standards:

Adapt from

oil & gas

Financial: Loan-

manufacturing

plant; gov fund;

R&D in advanced

materials

Industrial

Domestic

(Wild Cards)

Transport

Government

Support

Research

Strategic

Alliance

Advertiseme

nts/

Promotions

Heat Exchanger

Electrolysis

Storage and

Transport

Standards &

Testing

Financial:

“Duit zakat”, “Sukuk” and

bonds to secure financial

resources

Environment: Hydrogen as energy source reduces pollution

Social: Public & stakeholder awareness, Safety concerns, Pollution (from cars), Health risk assessment

Technology: Hydrogen commercialized technology still at introduction lifecycle, OTEC the most feasible source of H2, Improvisations in conversion tech favour H2 as energy carrier

Economic: Fossil fuel still affordable, leveraging sustainable competitive advantages of various companies

Political: No policy on OTEC, Government incentives & initiatives needed; political ownership needed, COP15

Full industrial usage via

centralized pipelinesCost effective H2 tanks & pipelines advanced

material such as carbon nano tubes

Hydrogen for normal

fusion, cold fusion

Cooking gas

Unmanned plane, deep ocean vessel Cars (Mass acceptance)

Piping companies

Infrastructure

Piping and transport

VISION:

Hydrogen to be an

attractive and

competi-tive

energy source 1

VISION: OTEC to

help fulfill the

hydrogen economy

23


Hydrogen

OTEC

2015 2020 2030

20MW 850MW 2,500MW

Future Landscape for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration

(CURRENT)

Phase 1

Dramatic

expansion of

hydrogen

awareness and

use

Phase 2

Full-fledged

introduction of

hydrogen power

generation/

Establishment of a

large scale system

for supplying

hydrogen

Phase 3

Establishment of a

hydrogen supply system

throughout the

manufacturing process

Technology Readiness of OTEC

“A less than 10 MWe floating, closed-cycle

OTEC facility is technically feasible using

current

design, manufacturing, deployment

techniques and materials." Nancy E.

Kinner, Ph.D.(2009)

“Ocean energy” incorporated in

11th Malaysia Plan (2016-2020)

Year 2018:

Offshore 10 MWe net is to be

commissioned

[Refer presentation by Mr Thierry

Bouchet of DCNS]

Legal

No legal provision specifically govern

Ocean Thermal Energy per se, but

existing laws are sufficient for OTEC

activity

CDR approach

[Refer presentation by

Dato’ Bakar of UTM OTEC]

CDR

Table

TE

CH

NO

LO

GY

LE

GA

L/

PO

LIC

Y

Source: Dato’ Ir

Dr A Bakar

Jaafar, ASM CFE

Workshop (2015)


Year Capacity (MW)

Growth Rate (%)

Remark

2020 20 - 2x10 MW public-private RMK-11

2025 850 - For 7% reduction in carbon intensity

2030 2500 14 To match nuclear power

2035 5000 14 To match nuclear power

2040 10000 14 To meet H2 demand

2045 20000 14

2050 40000 14 [As at 24 April 2015]

Revised after ASM CFE Workshop

Source: Dato’ Ir Dr A Bakar Jaafar

Projected Growth in Capacity: OTEC in Malaysia 2020-2050


OTEC’s Strategic Lens: Why Hydrogen?

26

Why Hydrogen?

Resource Proximity

Electricity uptake

limitationCheaper!

Deep waters

far from land

Electricity uptake

limited by

existence of deep

water O&G

production-

surplus (produce

H2)

H2 from

renewable

cheaper than H2

from fossil fuels.


Hydrogen Economy

OTEC technology

development &

commercialization

5 year plan

2020 20302015

(Current)

Establishment of a

large scale system

for supplying

hydrogen

Establishment of a

hydrogen supply

system throughout

the manufacturing

process

SUMMARY

OTEC


CONCLUSION

• OTEC benefits far outweigh the costs

• Roadmap sheds light on policy directions, priorities, and strategies on energy supply

• Very strong case for the growth & development of OTEC

• Significant insights and call to action for policy makers, power producers, industry and consumers

28


Invest in OTEC for our future!

29


THANK YOU

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LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES...

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