Let’s Move Forward INVESTOR RELATIONS FOCUS ON NAV AND...

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1 Let’s Move Forward INVESTOR RELATIONS FOCUS ON NAV AND DRIVERS OF VALUE

Transcript of Let’s Move Forward INVESTOR RELATIONS FOCUS ON NAV AND...

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Let’s Move Forward

INVESTOR

RELATIONS

FOCUS ON NAV

AND DRIVERS

OF VALUE

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ABOUT MPIC

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (PSE:MPI) is a Philippine-based, publicly listed investment and management company, focused in infrastructure,

with holdings in Manila Electric Company, Maynilad Water Services, Inc., Metro Pacific Tollways Corporation, Makati Medical Center, Cardinal Santos

Medical Center, Asian Hospital, Davao Doctors Hospital, Riverside Medical Center, Lourdes Hospital, De Los Medical Center, MegaClinic and Central

Luzon Doctors Hospital.

HEADQUARTERS INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM ([email protected])

10/F MGO Building, Legazpi corner Dela Rosa Streets, VP Investor Relations – Albert WL Pulido ([email protected])

Legazpi Village, Makati 0721 Philippines Group Investor Relations Manager – Maricris C. Aldover ([email protected])

Phone: (+632) 888-0888 / Facsimile: (+632) 888-0813

Email: [email protected]

Official Website: www.mpic.com.ph

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared solely and exclusively for discussion purposes. This

presentation and/or any part thereof may not be reproduced, disclosed or used without the

prior written consent of Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (the “Company”).

This presentation, as well as discussions arising therefrom, may contain statements relating

to future expectations and/or projections of the Company by its management team, with

respect to the Company and its portfolio companies. These statements are generally identified

by forward-looking words such as “believe,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “continue,””estimate,”

“expect,” “may,” “will,” or other similar words. These statements are: (i) presented on the

basis of current assumptions which the company’s management team believes to be

reasonable and presumed correct based on available data at the time these were made, (ii)

based on assumptions regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies, and

the environment in which it will operate in the future, (iii) a reflection of our current views with

respect to future events and not a guarantee of future performance, and (iv) subject to certain

factors which may cause some or all of the assumptions not to occur or cause actual results

to diverge significantly from those projected. Any and all forward looking statements made by

the Company or any persons acting on its behalf are deemed qualified in their entirety by

these cautionary statements.

This presentation is solely for informational purposes and should in no way be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments of the Company

and/ or any of its subsidiaries and/or affiliates.

Ticker: PSE:MPI

American Depositary Receipts

ADR Ticker: MPCIY

CUSIP: US59164L2007

Ratio: 1 ADR : 100 Ordinary Shares

Depositary Bank:

Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas

ADR Broker Helpline:

+1 212 250 9100 (New York)

+44 207 547 6500 (London)

E-mail: [email protected]

ADR Website: www.adr.db.com

Depositary Bank’s Local Custodian:

Deutsche Bank Manila

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INVESTOR RELATIONS PROGRAM

Our main goal in establishing an investor relations function within

the company has always been to keep a two way communication

going between our investors and Senior Management. Part of that

communication process is ensuring we deliver on these metrics:

1. Be as transparent as possible, without compromising our ability

to compete, about our strategy for MPIC and how we implement

in our various portfolio companies

2. Provide a consistent framework that investors can use to

evaluate our progress

3. Keep the conversation going, even in difficult operating or

regulatory environments

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IMPORTANCE OF NET ASSET VALUE ILLUSTRATIONS

It anchors the strategy to something definite

It provides a “price point” which analysts and investors

can refer to with clear assumptions provided

It clearly illustrates various business levers and growth

drivers

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NET ASSET VALUE ILLUSTRATIONS

In PHP BillionsYear of

Entry

Net Invested

Capital*

Analysts'

Consensus

Internal

ValuationValuation Method

Toll Roads 2008 22.4 58.3 122.6 DCF

Power 2009 67.0 93.2 110.3 DCF + Terminal Value

Water 2007 10.8 47.0 54.9 DCF

Hospitals 2007 (0.8) 17.1 31.4 25x EBITDA

Rail 2015 2.3 5.7 5.8 DCF

Total 101.7 221.3 325.0

Net Debt (14.2) **(31.3)

Holding Company Discount (30.4) ***(23.2)

Total Equity Value 176.7 270.5

Per Share 6.39 9.70

GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS

• WACC at 8.3%*

• Long-term inflation rate of 4.0%

• Outstanding number of shares – 27,867

WACC – 8.3%

• 7% pre-tax cost of debt

• 5.7% risk-free rate based on 20 year

Government Bonds

• Target gearing of 50:50

* Net of sale proceeds and accounting treatment adjustments

** Debt will increase to P55.3 billion over the next few years to fund these projects

*** Holding company discount equivalent to recurring expenses

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COMPARISON OF VALUATION CONSIDERATIONS

Analysts' Consensus Internal Valuation

Toll Roads All Analysts

• NLEX

• CAVITEX

Valued by some analysts:

• SCTEX

• Harbour Link

• DMT / CII

• NLEX

• CAVITEX

• SCTEX

• Harbour Link

• DMT / CII / CALAEX (valued at initial

investment)

• Traffic gains from Connector Road and CALAEX

Power All Analysts

• Distribution Utility

Valued by some analysts:

• Power Generation

• Retail Electricity Sales

• Distribution Utility – WACC at 10.8%

• Power Generationo Quezon Power, Subic (300MW) - DCF / 15%

ROEo GBP and Pacific Light Power -Valued at cost

• Retail Electricity Sales – 100% roll-out, 50%

market share, 4% maximum margins

Water Maynilad West Zone Concession • Maynilad West Zone Concession – Arbitration

WIN by September 2016

• MWIC investment in Rio Verde (valued at cost)

Hospitals Various P/E assumptions • 25x 2016 EBITDA less Net Debt

Rail Based on assumed bid case • Updated assumptions – P47.9 project cost

• Starting fare of P11.00/boarding and P1.0/km

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TOLL ROADS VALUATION SUMMARY

100% 59.9 8.2 36.4 16.1 14.6 8.9 23.8 7.6 15.2 5.5 4.2 3.5 203.9

MPTC 45.3 6.2 27.5 12.2 5.5 6.8 23.8 5.7 7.0 5.5 4.2 3.5 153.2

Net debt (8.5)

Equity value 144.7

MPIC share 144.5

Discount – regulatory friction, project delays etc. (15%) (21.9)

Attributable value 122.6

NLEX

Citi Link

Incremental

traffic from

Connector

Cavitex

SCTEX

TMC

CALAEx

DMT

CII

NLEX

Road

WideningIn PHP Billions

Harbour

Link 1

Harbour

Link 2

TOTAL NLEX at 100% - P144.1B

TOTAL NLEX at MPTC – P103.5B

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TOLL ROADS VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS

RoadCAPEX

(PhP Bn)

Start of

Operations

End of

Concession

Periodic

AdjustmentBasis of Adjustment

NLEX

Phase 1, Seg. 7 and Seg. 8.1 - 2008 2037 Every 2 years CPI / Minimum base escalation of 1.25%

Segment 9 2.0 2015 2037 Every 2 years CPI / Minimum base escalation of 1.25%

Segment 10 + R10 Spur 16.2 2017 2037 Every 2 years CPI / Minimum base escalation of 1.25%

NLEX Road widening 5.5 2017 / 2019 2037

Cit i Link / Segment 8.2 8.2 2020 2037 Every 2 years CPI / Minimum base escalation of 1.25%

Cavitex

R1 Expressway - 2012 2033 Every 3 years CPI and Forex

R1 Extension - 2012 2046 Every 3 years CPI and Forex

C5 Link (Segment 2 & 3) 9.7 2017 2050 Every 3 years CPI and Forex

C5 Link (Segment 5) 1.0 2020 2050 Every 3 years CPI and Forex

SCTEX 5.0 2016 2043 Every year Minimum base escalation of 6%

TMC (DDM) - 2008 N/A N/A N/A

CALAEX (at init ial investment) 23.3 2020 2050 Every 2 years CPI

CII (at cost) - Various Various

DMT (at cost) - 2014 2034 Every 5 years THB 10 for Original Tollway / THB5 for

Northern Extension

70.9

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TOLL ROADS VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS

TRAFFIC2014 / Base

Traffic

F irst 5

years

Year 6

onwards

NLEX

Open system 127,845 2.2% 1.6%

Closed system

(kms)

3,505,833 2.2% 1.7%

Segment 8.1 16,366 1.7% 1.5%

Segment 9 4,917 2.8% 1.7%

Segment 10 with

R10 spur

6,402 4.8% 2.1%

Citi Link / Segment

8.2

21,463 5.8% 1.7%

Cavitex

R1 Expressway 85,920 6.2% 4.8%

R1 Ex tension 17,201 10.5% 3.7%

C5 Link

Segment 2 30,231 3.0% 2.9%

Segment 3 39,913 4.1% 4.1%

Segment 5 10,680 8.3% 6.2%

SCTEX 35,356 7.3% 3.5%

CALAEX 68,882 6.0% 3.3%

Average Traffic

Growth

CLASS 1 TOLL RATES - In PhP

(Exclusive of Value-Added Tax)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NLEX

Per entry

Open system, beginning tariff 41.00 41.00 41.00 67.00 67.00 75.00

Periodic adjustment - - 13.11 - 8.00 -

Segment 9 - - - - - -

Segment 10 (with R10 spur) - - 12.89 - - -

Citi Link - Segment 8.2 - - - - - 4.00

Open system, ending tarif f 41.00 41.00 67.00 67.00 75.00 79.00

Per kilometer travelled

Closed system, beginning tariff 2.38 2.38 2.38 3.67 3.67 4.60

Periodic adjustment - - 0.93 - 0.45 -

Road widening - - 0.36 - 0.48 -

Closed system, ending tarif f 2.38 2.38 3.67 3.67 4.60 4.60

CAVITEX (Per entry)

R1 Expressway, beginning tariff 22.00 22.00 22.00 27.00 28.00 28.00

Periodic adjustment - - 5.00 1.00 - -

R1 Expressway, ending tarif f 22.00 22.00 27.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

R1 Extension, beginning tariff 57.00 57.00 57.00 68.00 68.00 68.00

Periodic adjustment - - 11.00 - - -

R1 Extension, ending tarif f 57.00 57.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00

Beginning Toll Rate

Segment 2 12.50

Segment 3 40.00

Segment 5 5.65

TOLL RATE MULTIPLIER NLEX SCTEX CAVITEX

Class 1 1.00 1.00 1.00

Class 2 2.50 2.00 2.00

Class 3 3.00 3.00 3.00

ILLUSTRATIVE TOLL RATE ADJUSTMENTS

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POWER VALUATION SUMMARY AND ASSUMPTIONS

MERALCO - 100%NAV

(In Php Bn)NAV/sh

Distribution 174.4 154.79

Retail electricity sales 124.5 110.43

Generation 52.8 46.88

Net cash 6.4 5.68

358.1 317.78

MPIC SHARE – 32.48%NAV

(In Php Bn)NAV/sh

Distribution 56.7 2.03

Retail electricity sales 40.4 1.45

Generation 17.1 0.62

Net cash (MER) 2.1 0.07

Net debt at Beacon (6.0) (0.22)

110.3 3.95

Rate Rebasing Assumptions

Regulatory annual growth 3.50%

Average annual capex PhP11.8bn

Regulatory WACC 10.80%

Regulatory asset base PhP138.0bn

POWER GENERATION

RETAIL ELECTRICITY SALES

• Gradual roll-out to 100% of contestable market

• MERALCO market share of 50%

• Maximum margins of 4% - based on discounting

margins of 7% benchmarked around the world for

retail electricity sellers

Power Plant CapacityCost

(PhP Bn)Valuation Method

San Buenaventura

(Quezon)

460MW 41.4 DCF based on

15% ROE

RP Energy (Subic) 300MW* 27.0 DCF based on

15% ROE

Global Business

Power

709MW 7.3 Acquisition Cost

Pacific Light 800MW 8.8 Acquisition Cost

* Upside of additional 300MW not included

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WATER VALUATION SUMMARY

WATER

Enterprise value 119.8

Net debt (17.7)

Equity value 102.1

MPIC ownership 52.8%

Attributable share - Maynilad 53.9

MWIC (at initial investment cost) 1.0

Total attributable share 54.9

Rate Rebasing Assumptions (Amounts in PhP Billion)

ADR (2018 onwards) 8.3%

2013 Opening cash position P66.0

Long-term inflation rate 4.0%

Concession Fees

2013 to 2017 P6.0

2013 to 2037 P21.5

Capital Expenditure Commitment

2013 to 2017 P59.0

2013 to 2037 P239.0

Operating Expenses

2013 to 2017 P31.0

2013 to 2037 P183.0

• Assumes 2016 and 2017 inflation

adjustments are implemented

• Rate rebasing adjustment to be

implemented in 2018 based on

latest benchmarking

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