Aims of this lesson – to have learnt:

Question 3 - What might the world’s energy future be?

Energy Security and the Future

Where are the geopolitical energy hotspots?

What are the factors which will increase tensions and conflicts?

• There are several key uncertainties relating to energy futures:

• Future demand is uncertain – it partly depends on future population and economic growth

• The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, is unknown

• The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil (see image)

• The extent and timing of switching from fossil fuel to renewables is uncertain.

• Peak oil and gas are important; after peak production prices can only rise.

3. Energy security and the future

Geopolitics • There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future, related

to energy security and the threat of insecurity:

Scenario Explanation Consequences

Oil hits $100 •Sustained oil price of over $100 per barrel, for several years.

•Prolonged economic recession and rising fuel poverty in OECD countries

Middle East meltdown

•Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war between Muslim factions; possibly involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkey and others.

•Interruption of oil and gas flows; rising prices; tension between China and USA to secure oil supply

The nuclear option

•Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread of nuclear power and technology

•Power stations become ‘soft targets’ for terrorism; enriched uranium and depleted plutonium get into the wrong hands….

Energy superpowers

•The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reserves and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; the world has not shifted to renewables.

•Energy superpowers begin to ‘name their price’ and take care of their friends; major geopolitical shifts

Arctic attack •Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but without clear delineation of territorial areas.

•A war or words over who has the right to exploit what, quickly becomes a new cold war – possibly a hot one……

From the Spec:

3.3: Energy insecurity may lead to increased geopolitical tension and the potential conflict, e.g. in the Middle East, or between gas consumers in Europe and producers in Russia, as consumers attempt to secure supplies

It is every country’s interest to become as energy-secure as possible. The key to ENERGY SECURITY lies in:

•Making the greatest possible use of domestic sources of energy

•Diversifying energy resources to minimise the use of fossil fuels and maximise the use of renewable resources

•Ensuring guarantees of imported energy, namely reliable supplies and stable prices

Conflicts and OilThe majority of conflicts around energy are around oil and gas (areas of production and pathways).

There has always been much speculation over the real reasons behind the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Would the US have been so interested in the plight of the Iraqis if Iraq grew carrots?

Civil war broke out in Angola in 1961 as part of the battle for independence from Portugal. The war continued after independence in 1974 with the ruling party backed by the Communists (Cuba and Russia) and the rebels by South Africa (and the USA). Why were the superpowers interested in this particular country? Many countries in Africa descended into Civil War after independence but not all had this kind of intervention.

Also, why would a ruling communist party allow and promote such symbols of capitalism as Shell and BP to operate off their shores and in their country…?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1999/01/99/angola/264228.stm

Describe the pattern of stress points and US military aid/activity. Suggest reasons for this pattern (5)

What do you learn from these two maps?

Oil and conflict - a natural mix

• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/3625207.stm

The importance of the Middle East

• Energy insecurity and the global reliance on fossil fuels are causing energy conflicts

• The Middle East is a key world OIL SUPPLIER• As demand rises and supply peaks- the region will

increase in importance• 71% of the world’s estimated 1000 billion barrels are

in Middle East• By 2025 with no new discoveries, that proportion will

increase to 83%• All major global economies depend hugely on Middle

Eastern Oil. • The Middle East currently supplies 76% of Japan’s

oil, 26% of Western Europe’s and 21% of USA’s

Worldwide exports of oilwww.worldmapper.org

Land area

• Early exploitations of middle eastern oil was coordinated by western companies, who at first paid little/ no royalties to oil owners

• Even the national borders were decided by Western civil servants after WW1 (using rulers, maps and red pens – check out those straight lines!)

• As result west been seen as arrogant- resentment continues with happenings today in Iran and Afghanistan

• Watch the opening sequence of “The Kingdom”• http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=F39rqgY_sQY&feature=related

Abqaiq

• World’s largest oil processing plant

• Produces 6.8 million oil barrels a day

• 75% of Saudi’s total output

• Hub of 12,000 miles of oil and gas fields and pipelines- all vulnerable to direct attacks

• A successful terror attack could halt production for up to a year

• There’s nowhere that could produce that level of oil- thus world's would suffer mass oil supply problem

• 24 February 06 it was attacked by terrorists

• 2 vehicles carrying explosives tried to smash their way through into plant compound

• 2 hour gun battle ensued, during which explosives went off

• 2 terrorists and 2 guards were killed

• Plant however was undamaged…

• Luckily….

Current energy security issues in Middle East

• Iran’s nuclear threat• Iran on going conflict with the USA• Terror threat of radicals in Oil producing countries (attacks on oil

supplies)• Fallout from Israel/ Palestine conflict• Legacy of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan• Tension between Pakistan and India over Kashmir- further unrest• Yemen and Somalia have governments which do not control the

entirety of their countries land- Somaili Pirates and recent ‘terror’ threats out of Yemen- the Printer bombs in October 2010

Annotate your map to explain the Geopolitical tensions surrounding the supply of energy from the Middle East

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS- WORLD

MIDDLE EAST

Threat of terror attacks on oil refineries especially in Iraq.

Control of ¾ of oil is with Middle East

The straits of Hormuz between Iran and the UAE have 30% of world oil supply passing through them- risk of hijacking of vessels

Piracy is widespread in the straits of Malacca

The Bab el Mandab is at risk for Yemeni and Somali pirates- it’s the main supply route from Middle East to the EU nations of oil

The oil refinery at Abaqaiq has been a terror target before- luckily it went wrong

Russia controls the gas supplies of most of eastern Europe and a large % of Western Europe’s gas supply

Germany is phasing out nuclear power as energy source since the Fuckushima disaster in Japan, it will now rely more on Russian gas to meet its energy demands.

In 2011 the Fukushima nuclear reactor leaked radiation after the Earthquake affected it- questions over safety remain

In 2010 BP oil rig in the Mexican gulf leaked gallons of oil into the sea- killing sea birds, mammals and fish and damaging fishing trawler businesses along the US southern states and Caribbean Islands for 4 month- some fishermen lost their livelihoods

The Iraqi invasion of 2003- today- put oil production on back foot

Saudi Arabia has the majority of the world’s oil supplies- tensions with the USA and the ‘west’ put this supply at risk

As the Arctic Ice retreats further each year, new oil deposits are being uncovered in the region all the time- debate over who owns and controls could lead to trouble

Debate over whether exploiting non conventional oil sources like the tar sands and the green river shale deposits is on going- environmentalists fight against it, some say US needs to maintain energy security

China is competing with the USA and EU for oil it can pay more so pushes price up and demands supply increase- leaving less for the USA and the EU who are heavily reliant on foreign oil imports

Iran and the USA do not get along- Iran has vast oil reserves many of the worlld biggest reserves of oil are in Iran friendly countries

The need to find new oil sources has led to drilling deeper down into sea beds to extract it leading to increased oil leak risk- as in the Mexican gulf in 2010

The failure of nuclear reactor at Fukushima in Japan has reignited the nuclear debate- calling its safety into question

The Arab spring- the unrest in nations like Syria over corrupt dictator governments- west supports the uprisings- repercussions threat it will spread to Iran- bigger population, more oil bigger world issue

Libya an the unrest caused by Gaddafi- ‘west’’ want him out- he won’t leave- civil unrest- oil refineries target risk

Iran’s nuclear threat US and west are worried they are developing nuclear weapons and will use them to attack west

On-going Israel- Palestine tensions- USA seen to support Israel most of rest of Middle East supports Palestine- terror threat – suicide bombings etc

Changes in Al- Qaeda and threat of reprisal for death of Bin Laden

On going tensions between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region

If unrest resurfaces in Egypt- they control suez oil transport key hotspot- risk of disruption to supply