Lesson 3.3d

Other Analytical Tools

and Interpretation1 1

Content

• Introduction

• Analytical Tools

– Timeline

– Time Event Chart

– Event Map

– Association Matrix

– Link Diagram

• Practice timeline tool

2

Learning Outcomes

• Explain a range of analytical tools

• Make deductions from analytical tools

3

Introduction

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• Analytical tools assist us to see information from different perspectives

• There different tools other than 3-column format

• Graphical tools help us absorb information quickly and give us briefing tools

• Two key categories of graphical tools:

• Pattern analysis-Timeline, Time Event Chart, Event Mapping

• Link analysis- Association Matrix, Link Diagram

Timeline

Timelines shows information in a sequential to reveal patterns by time

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MONAM

MONPM

TUEAM

TUEPM

WEDAM

WEDAM

THUAM

SUNPM

SUNAM

SATPM

SATAM

FRIPM

THUPM

FRIAM

Rainfall

Reported Criminal Activity

Timeline Exercise

Task: What assessments can you make from the timeline?

Approx. Time: 15-20min

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FEB JULJUNMAYAPRMAR AUG

Time Event Chart

Time Event Charts expands on a timeline and orders events to reveal more complex patterns

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5 Jan 10 Feb

New propaganda distributed in AO

Surge in recruiting

7 Apr

Spring Thaw

1-10 Mar

Increased logistic activity

18-21 May

Violent protests

22-25 Jun

Recon of military camps

5-17Jun

Platoon sized camps

established

Off road routes dry/ trafficable

8-21 Jun

8-30 Jun

Summer offensive

begins

Support Activity

Weather Event

Offensive Activity

Legend:

Time Event Chart

Pattern Analysis Plot Sheet displays events over time

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15 Aug

26 Aug

25 Aug

24 Aug

23 Aug

22 Aug21 Aug

20 Aug

19 Aug

18 Aug

17 Aug

16 Aug

0600

1200

1800

2359

LEGEND

IED Attack

Vehicle Theft

Murder

15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 23

24 25 26

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 6 7 8 9 0 6 7 8 9 0

UNIT and AREA: UN 1/AO PATTERN

MONTH and YEAR: JAN 1998

LEGEND

A: AMBUSH

B: BOMBING

M: MURDER

K: KIDNAP

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2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

17

14

13

16

15

18

19

20

21

22

23

DAY 1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30 31

S M T W TH F SAT

Time Event Chart ExerciseTask: What quick assessments can you make from this

Time Event Chart?

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Jan

Jul

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

1-10

11-20

21-end

LEGEND

UN Goods in Black Market

Convoy Raids

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Nov Dec

Event Map

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AO Pattern UN Convoy Raids, Jan-Dec

LEGEND

Convoy Raid

Black Market

Refugee Camp

North Town

Central Town

South Town

West Town

Event Maps show patterns in event types and locations

Event Map ExerciseTask:

What quick assessments can you make from this Event Map?

Time: Consider 3 minutes, answer 2 minutes12

LEGEND

Attacks on VotersPolling BoothRefugee Camp

North Town

Central Town

South Town

West Town

AO Pattern Election Violence, Jul XX

Association MatrixA simple Link Analysis tool that shows relationships between

entities, equipment, places and/or events

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B.T. Kid

L. Ranger

W.B. Hickok

Tea Shop

Jolly Roger (Bar)

Convoy RaidsLEGEND

Suspected

Known

Insurgent Group

Link DiagramDisplays linkages between entities, individuals, organizations, events

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BK

WP TT

AC

PK

KC DB

Blue Smoke GangLogistic Support?

Convoy Raid

Person

Event

Organisation

Legend:

Prison Associate

Sibling

Associate

Additional Analytical Tools

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• You have been exposed to a small number of possible tools

• Explore additional analytical tools: ‒ mind-mapping‒ brainstorming‒ ACH, SWOT analysis‒ COG analysis‒ gender analysis

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Analysis & Integration in the

MPKI Cycle

- Collation- Evaluation- Analysis & integration- Interpretation

Interpretation

Interpreting the new peacekeeping-intelligence in the context of what is already understood or

assessed to refine predictive assessments

COLLATE INFORMATION (so we can find it)

EVALUATE INFORMATION (so we know how reliable it is)

ANALYSE INFORMATION (so we know what it means)

INTEGRATE ANALYSIS (so we see the wider picture)

INTERPRET NEW ANALYSIS(so we can give it the right weight)

Take Away

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• In addition to the 3 Column Analysis tool, Pattern Analysis and Link Analysis include analytical tools:– Timeline– Time Event Chart– Event Map– Association Matrix– Link Diagram

• Analysts should become conversant with a range of analytical tools in order to provide the best possible analysis to decision makers

• The final step in the Analysis Phase is to interpret new intelligence, relating it to previous assessments

Questions

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