Les TICs dans les BRICS - IPTS - JRC -...

JPS Public Policy Consulting 1

13 ème séance du séminaire BRICs, FMSH/EHESS Paris , 5 June 2012

Les TICs dans les BRICS Jean Paul Simon


Summary

Fast growing economiesThe size of the ICT sector: a global viewThe size of the ICT sector: BRIC countriesBrazilIndiaChinaSouth AfricaRussiaToward a new global equilibrium?


The world is changing…

Year 2000

World GDP Distribution

Source: Robert W. Fogel. 2009. “The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth.”


The world is changing…

Year 2000 Year 2040forecast

World GDP Distribution


Fast growing economies


Brazil is the world's seventh largest economy by nominal GDP (US$ 2.090 trillion) and the ninth largest by purchasing power parity (US$ 2.172 trillion). The Indian economy is the world's ninth-largest economy by nominal GDP and fourth largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP)On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis and by nominal GDP, China is the second largest economy in the world after the US, representing about 41.56% of total EU27 (World Bank, 2009). Russia has the world's 11th largest economy by nominal GDP or the 6th largest by purchasing power paritySouth Africa is ranked 25th in the world in terms of GDP (PPP) as of 2008


Engines of the global growthAn intensive process of redistribution of production across the world is taking place. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China,) countries are proving to be the major engines of the global growth. They were far less impacted by the financial and economic crisis than developed economies or recovered more quickly The growth rates for these emerging economies have been far above average during the last decade, and have exceeded those of the more advanced countries (EITO 2011). Consequently these four countries are driving most of the world’s GDP growth.


China and India are among the fastest growing economies in the world.China’s GDP has achieved more rapid growth than most other countries.


The size of the ICT sector: a global view


Economic weight of the ICT sub-sectors, % of sub-sector’s value added in GDP, 2008, or latest data available

1.1%

0.5%

0.3%

1.0%

0.6%

2.7%

1.9%

3.9%

2.2%

1.7%

1.9%

2.7%

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

2.3%

1.0%

2.7%

1.8%

2.4%

0.6%

2.0%

0.8%

1.3%

0.02%

0.03%

0.10%

0.14%

0.12%

0.11%

0.4%

5.7%

0.14%

0.02%

0.5%

0.6%

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

0.14%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Australia_2007

India_2006

EU_2008

US_2008

China_2006

Japan_2007

Korea_2007

Taiwan_2007

IT Equipment

Components, Telecom and MultimediaEquipmentMeasurement Instruments

Post and Telecom Services

Computer Services and Software

Source: JRC-IPTS based on data from EUROSTAT, OECD, EU KLEMS, IPTS (2010,a,b) and IPTS


R&D investments in the ICT:sub-sectors by EU, US, Japanese, Asian and RoW ICT Scoreboard companies,

in billions of € (2008)

4.8

11.8

1.7

4.63.7

9.4

19.7

11.5

0.3 0.7

23.3

8.810.1

0.1

9.1

2.3 2.1

9.1

0.5 0.5 0.60.9 1.3 1.8

0.10.9

0.30.31.3

0.10.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

IT Equipment IT Components TelecomEquipment

MultimediaEquipment

Telecom Services ComputerServices andSoftware

EU US Japan Asia RoW

Note: Bold numbers above bars represent total sectoral R&D investmentsSource: IPTS Predict Report 2011.


Location of ICT R&D centres by region of ownership, 2009, in %

28%

11%

14%

21%

51%

35%

12%

14%

50%

18%

1%

3%

56%

2%

3%

14%

69%

15%

16%

18%

21%

5%

1%

11%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

RoW

Asia

Japan

US

EUR&

D centre ow

nership

R&D centre locationEU US Japan Asia RoW

743

1078

678

273

85

Source: JRC-IPTS ICT R&D Internationalisation Database, 2010.


Share in total number of patent applications by region

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005

EUUSJPAsiaRoW

Source: IPTS, De Prato, Nepelski, et al., 2011

Location of R&D


Doing R&D abroad

US18%

Japan3%

RoW10%

EU51%

Asia18%

Location of R&D centres of EU high-tech firms* in 2010

* Based on IHS iSuppli dataset of semiconductor supply chain and industrySource: De Prato, Nepelski, et al., 2011


Global perspective on ICT patenting

ICT priority patent applications by inventors from the EU, US, Brazil, China, Korea, India, Russia,

South Africa and TaiwanSource: IPTS, 2011

Brasil

Russia

South Africa

EU

US

China

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

50.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ICT

pate

nt a

pplic

atio

ns

Brasil Russia South Africa EU US China Korea India


Contribution of world regions to ICT inventive output, 1990-2007, %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Years

Reg

iona

l con

tribu

tion

to IC

T pr

iorit

ypa

tent

app

licat

ions

EU ICT appl. US ICT appl. JP ICT appl. Asia ICT appl. RoW ICT appl.

Source: JRC-IPTS calculations based on PATSTAT data (April 2010 release). Priority patent applications to the EPO, the 27 Member States’ National Patent Offices,

the USPTO, the JPO, and 29 further Patent Offices. Inventor criterion.


Increase of ICT inventive activity:the EU, the US, China and Korea

74%-3%

161%

20%

259%

1059%

825%

64%

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1990-99 2000-07

Countries

Ave

rage

incr

ease

of I

CT

inve

ntiv

eac

tivity

EU US CN KR

Source: JRC-IPTS calculations based on PATSTAT data (April 2010 release).


Share of ICT parent PCT patent application by countries

For ICT parent PCT patent applications, China, Japan and R.O.Korea accounts for 48% of the world total ICT parent PCT patent applications in 2009.

Source: OECD, http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PATS_IPC#


Regional distribution of collaboration (1990-2007) : co-invention

a: Co‐invention with the EU

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

US Japan Asia RoW

a: Co‐invention with the US

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

EU Japan Asia RoW

Source: JRC-IPTS calculations based on PATSTAT data.

a: Co‐invention with Asia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

EU US Japan RoW

a: Co‐invention with Asia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

EU US Japan RoW


The size of the ICT sector: BRIC countries


Share of BRIC countries in the 2009 global ICT market

Source: EITO in collaboration with IDC, PAC and Idate, published in EITO (2011).


Major players (1)In 2010, BRIC countries accounted for 13% of global demand, with spending of about € 328 billion in ICT (EITO, 2011). Therefore, they are becoming major players, not just as plain ICT users/ importers but also as producers of ICT goods and services.The ICT sector is certainly representative of the massive changes in the Brazilian, Indian and Chinese industry and economy. China Mobile is the world largest mobile operatorIndia is the second-largest (after China) and one of the fastest growing mobile markets in the world. China has become the world’s largest producer of ICT products

exports of ICT increased fourfold between 2004 and 2008, though many of these are re-exports from other Asian countries).

JPS Public Policy Consulting 23Source: wikimedia

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Bolywood.jpg


Major players (2)

BRIC countries are also becoming major players in the entertainment and media markets.According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (Global Entertainment and media outlook, 2011), Brazil, India and China will be the fastest growing leaders:

with a projected compound annual increase of 11.4%, 13% and 11.6% respectively between 2011 and 2015 (versus US: 4.7%, EMEA: 5.2%).

Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba.com are now ranking now 4, 6, 12 among the Top Global 15 Publicly Traded Internet Companies by Market Value – 2010.

These companies were not even listed in 2004 as Alibaba, Baidu went public post 2004.


Innovators

In 2009, 46% of Internet users (1.8 billion global Internet users) concentrate in five countries, the top Internet markets: China, USA, Brazil, India, Russia, four are BRIC countries.Several Chinese electronics firms have become global players, including Huawei Technologies, Lenovo, and ZTE.India produced an interesting case study of innovation with the budget telecom model or "bottom of the pyramid" (BOP) model.

based on pre-paid and fitted to meet the demand of the poorest segment of customers. The lowest mobile rates in the world.

The output of structural reforms of the markets


Connectivity leaders


Brazil

/

.

http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/


The output of economic openingThe growth of the Brazilian ICT market has been impressive. The ICT sector was one of the most affected by the economic opening process observed in Brazil in the 1990's. The relative value of the ICT market almost doubled over the decade.

The growth is expected to continue in the future according to EITO (2011).

The value is now equivalent to 7% of the Brazilian GDP. The largest sub-segments are telecom services (43.14%) and IT services (17.87%)


ICT market, segments by market share

6,22%

3,72%

1,56%

12,40%

5,30%

1,50%

0,46%

7,52%

43,12%

0,32%

17,87%

Office equipment manufacturing

Electrical material

Electronic material

TV, Radio and sound TX

TV, Radio and sound Receivers

Test and measurement equipment

Industrial process control

Computer, telephony and communicationwholesale market

Telecommunications

Office equipment rental

IT Services


A growing trade deficit in ICT

Trade balance (% PIB)

-1,6

-1,4

-1,2

-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

02008 2009 2010 2015 2020


ICT R&D expenditures (2000-2008), (million RS 2008)

32,768

13,54217,681

12,437 13,090 12,338 12,338 12,07912,517

16,307

15,087

10,51810,42610,79710,77810,565

12,65413,346 14,415

30,723

26,88825,171

22,59623,001 23,867 23,135 22,763

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Public Business Total

Source: Anatel, 2011.

Low level of investment in R&D Capacity building needs


BRAZILIAN TELECOM MARKETBRAZILIAN TELECOM MARKET

BRAZILIAN TELECOM MARKET IS RELEVANT GLOBALLY AND IS THE LARGEST IN LATIN AMERICA

Source: ANATEL, IBGE, Teleco, ML Wireless, UNCTAD and Internet World Stats

4ºFixed Lines in Service

Mobile Users

March/11

Fixed Broadband Users

5º

10º

June/10

June/10

MILLION


Telecom marketsThe market value of telecom (fixed and mobile) and Pay TV reached R$ 149.5 billion (around € 57 billion) at the end of the first quarter of 2011As of 2009, the broadband penetration was reaching 22 million access lines (13 fixed and 9 mobile) but is expected to grow steadily to reach 160 million at the end of the next decade

A national broadband plan (Plano Nacional de Banda Larga: PNBL) was adopted in May 2010 with ambitious targets on coverage, prices and speed:

tripling the number of accesses, decreasing the price from around R$ 49-96 to R$ 15, and increasing the capacity from 256 kbps to over 512 by 2014.

The telecom services sub-sector is a typical example of foreign direct investments with the prominent role of the Mexican company Telmex (owning 75.16% of Embratel in the fixed market, 100% of America Movil in the mobile market, and of large EU companies in both fixed and mobile markets (Telefonica, Portugal Telecom, Telecom Italia).


Brazilian telecom sector gross revenue in R$ billion*and as % of GDP

3150,5

66,280 84,4

99,1117

136,6 146,7 158178,4 179,9

3,2

4,7

5,66,1

5,7 5,8 66,4 6,2

5,9 5,9 5,7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

gross revenue in R$ billion gross revenue as % of GDP

€ 1 = R$ 2.62 (as of August 2010). Source: ABINEE (2009)

Gross revenues in 2009: € 68.66 billion


ShortcomingsThe ICT is characterised by a great heterogeneity as well as by disparities between foreign and domestic firms. Like it is the case for many other industries in the country, the ICT sector is dominated by foreign companies.

Among the 382 companies, identified by an IPEA survey, operating in Brazil, 62 (16.23%) are foreign. Although this percentage is relatively low, one should bear in mind that these companies account for over 70% of the net revenues; it clearly delineates the major role of foreign investments.

A huge tax burden on telcos: 50% .Taxes on services are hampering the deployment of services. in contradiction with a policy to promote innovation and the balance between the short run gains for the government and the long run benefit for the general welfare does not seem to be appropriate.


India

/

.



One of the fastest growing economy

Since the introduction of market-based economic reforms in 1991, India has become one of the fastest growing major economies in the world.The Indian economy is the world's eleventh largest economy by nominal GDP

and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity

Growth rate has been impressive for last two decades with 9.1% in FY 2007-2008 and is forecast to grow by 8% in 2010 Policy orientation resulted in “Born Global” firms


The size of the ICT sectorIndian innovation system appears impressive

with a broad-based network of government-supported research and development laboratories with multi-disciplinary expertise, a large education capacity with world class engineering teachinginstitutes, dynamic private sector significant number of MNCs and R&D units,

The ICT sector is growing in all domains, Predominantly driven by software services.

India shifted focus to software in mid 1990s from hardware.The top 10 Indian IT services firms generated almost USD 23 billion in annual revenue in 2009. This is almost 36% of the overall revenue of the Indian IT services industry.

Tata Consulting Services (TCS), Wipro and Infosys Technologies are the biggest firms, accounting respectively for 27%, 24% and 21% of the top 10 revenues in 2009.


Some achievements (1)For telecommunications services the results of liberalization have been remarkable.

Teledensity has increased from merely 2 percent or so in 1999 to 37 percent in 2009, 52.74% in 2010 and almost 8-10 million mobile subscribers are added every month.

Wireless has been the principal engine for telecom growth in thecountry.

The wireless subscriber base has grown from 0.88 million in 1999 to 391.67 million in 2009, over 600 in April 2010. The mobile sector grew at the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)of 84.01 percent in the last decade.

India is the second-largest (after China) and one of the fastest growing mobile markets in the world. An interesting case study of innovation with the budget telecom model or "bottom of the pyramid" (BOP) model.

based on pre-paid and fitted to meet the demand of the poorest segment of customers. The lowest mobile rates in the world.


Some achievements (2)

The Indian IT services industry (including IT services, BPO, andsoftware and engineering) has grown at two-digit rates year on year since the late 1990s.

Only in 2010 has year-on-year revenue growth slowed to one digit (6%).

India has become the world’s leading exporter of information technology services

According to the OECD (2010): "India has become the global front office”

The success of the Indian software sector is largely attributed to availability of high skilled technical labour for the exports.Over a ten fold increase for ICT patents between 1990 and 2007 India is the world's largest producer of films.

In 2009, India produced a total of 2961 films on celluloid, that include a staggering figure of 1288 feature films


Shortcomings

Indian ICT manufacturing sector is small when compared to the services.

The imbalance between software and hardware may become “crippling”

In a convergent world the uneven growth of telecom and broadcasting may turn out to be an obstacleInternet and broadband penetration is still very lowThe Indian trade deficit for ICT goods has increased more than tenfold between 1996 and 2007 Scarcity of R&D expenditures and activities performed by firms in the Indian ICT industry Making it difficult to conclude that R&D capabilities are acquired


China


Overview: a catch up economy

China’s GDP has achieved a more rapid growth than most countries in the worldIn real prices, China’s average annual growth rate has reached 9% for the period of 1978-2008The GDP per capita has grown steadily with a compound annual growth rate of 12.8% during the last decade, reaching 1857 euros in 2008.


Main economic indicators of China (US $ billion)

Source: ,Ling. W., Shiguo. L (2011), * excluding service trade


The size of the ICT sector

The ICT sector is certainly representative of the massive changes in the Chinese industry and economy. China has become the 1st largest country producing ICT products.Manufacturing dominates China's ICT

industry.A total of 80% of the ICT industry revenue comes from computer systems, electronic elements & components, communication equipment and home audio & video products.


Percentage-share of ICT industry within China's GDP

Source: http://www.paradiso-fp7.eu/documents/conference/Day2/Session3/Jun.pdf

http://www.paradiso-fp7.eu/documents/conference/Day2/Session3/Jun.pdf


Some impressive results (1)

Within two decades, the national strategy of building national champions has already been undertaken by some ambitious companies. Several Chinese electronics firms have become global players, including HuaweiTechnologies, Lenovo, and ZTE.

Huawei and ZTE are now the main players in the GSM, CDMA, optical and DSLAM equipment markets. Huawei Technologies has become a leading provider of telecommunications networks and increasingly challenges established competitors like Siemens, Cisco, and Alcatel. Lenovo has become a global leader in the PC market since it acquired the IBM Personal Computing;


Some impressive results (1)

China is the world’s largest mobile market and hit 900 million customers in April 2011

China Mobile is the world largest mobile operator: 615 million customersChina is set to become the world’s largest smartphone market in 2012, according to research firm IDC

Internet services companies grew quicklyThe number of patent applications filed doubled year on year from 2002 to 2006.

China shows an impressive increase, starting fromlate '90ies.


An unbalanced growthChina’s ICT industry is typically characterized as foreign-oriented.

Most MNCs build their factories in China to benefit from cheap labor and other resources.

Since 2003, China has become the world’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), overtaking the US.China is rapidly becoming an important source of outward foreigndirect investment (OFDI). Much of R&D offshoring to Asia is concentrated in the electronic industry,

with China dominating R&D for hardware?China plays a major role in the global production network China’s ICT sector has been playing increasingly important role in international trade.

The share of ICT sector in total export and import have reached to 41.89% and 34.01% in 2006, respectively


Remaining weaknessesStill, GDP per capita lags at a very low level, ranking China far behind the US or the EU equivalent, Despite the growth the overall ICT market size is smallMany Chinese ICT enterprises produce low value-added, low technology, non-brands, cheap, and labor-intensive ICT products for foreign companies and market with little R&D, Truly global R&D in Chinese companies is still a long way away. Besides, in spite of the growth of R&D expenditure, the level remains modestDrastic increase of patents

however the number filed by Chinese inventors accounts for less than ¼ of that achieved by German inventors,


R.A.S

/

.

Source: OPS



1. South Africa

/

.



A weak performance

The total GDP growth since 1994 has been of 3.3%, with a GDP per capita of $10 700. The contribution of transport, communications and storage 4.7% of which telecommunications was about 3% in 2008 below other middle-income countries (Esselaar, Gillwald, Moyo and Naidoo 2010,). The value added of the aggregated sectors was of US $ 114 555 million 2006 (2008: $126 041 million). ICT expenditures reached 9.73% of GDP in 2006. There is a huge gap in the technology balance of payments: US $ 1.6 billion payments vs US $ 200m in receipts as of 2006.


Contribution to the GDP in %, 1993-2008.


The South African ICT sector is facing various challenges.

The overall sector shows growth but it is suboptimal when compared to similar size economies. The landscape is characterised by high access and usage costs, low PC ownership and a weak IT literacy. Growth in the sector is mostly supported by high-end users able to pay high prices

but this create a narrow band of users which quickly becomes saturated.


Summary of the SA telecom markets


Telecom markets (1)The South African market is the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and unlike in more mature markets, voice services, both fixed and mobile continue to bring the largest chunk of the revenues. The telecommunications sector is plagued by high pricesThe incumbent, Telkom, fixed line network is smaller now than before privatisation

following the large scale disconnection of nearly 2 million subscribers unable to afford service towards the end of the official monopoly period in 2001

Mobile services in the country have grown exponentially.Four mobile operators, Cell C, MTN, Vodacom and new entrant 8ta, together with virtual network operator Virgin claim to haveover 100% penetration.South Africa stills suffers from inflated prices resulting in sub optimal use of services, with high numbers of receive only or SMS only users (RIA 2011).


Comparison of mobile termination rates in ZAR 2011


Telecom markets (2)Even if within sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa continues to dominate internet access, most of its lead is grounded in the higher GDP per capita The country is falling behind other middle income countries for broadband.

The market is characterised by extraordinarily high prices and low penetration compared to other middle income countries : 2,8 subscribers per 100 inhabitants. Mobile broadband is increasingly being used as primary service rather than as complementary services to fixed broadband services in the home.


ShortcomingsThese poor indicators for the largest economy in Africa are undoubtedly a reflection of poor policy outcomes in South Africa in key areas over the last decade

resulting not only from an absence of evidence-based policy but the political neglect of this sector

Flawed institutional arrangements in the sector have compromised regulatory effectiveness. South Africa clung to its failing policy of “managed liberalisation” for over a decade, which constrained competition,there is a high concentration of state ownership within the sector without any consistent policies.


Russia

/

.

Data, source: Russoft 2011, S.Schandera

source: S.Schandera



IT in Russia: Current PictureMarket in Russia [Source: Russian Ministry of Comm and Mass Media]

IT market 2010: € 14 billion (hardware 50–55%, soVware 20–25%, IT services 20–30%)

14% growth from 2009 Expected further growth: 14.6% in 2011, 15.8% in 2012, 18.1% in 2013

10 major companies capture 54% market share in 201011 million PCs sold in 2010 (+60%, 68,7% mobile)IT outsourcing market 2007: € 1.04 billion / 1.000 companies / 52.000 jobs

E-readinessInternet penetration: 39.8% [Source: TNS, March 2010]Mobile Phones (SIM cards): 148.7% [Source: J’son & Partners, 2010]Internet-enabled economy: $19,3 B [Source: Boston Consulting Group, 2010]Internet users (adults) in 2008: 32% (Moscow: 59%) / in 2011: 47%

By 2014 Russia will have more Internet-users than any other country in Europe (3% of all Internet-users in the World with 2% of global population

Broadband penetration 2009: 26%Russian language ranks 8 among top 10 languages on the Internet (2009)


Structure of the Russian IT Market, 2010

Source: IDC, Russoft


IT in Russia: Specifics and StrengthsRegional innovation leader (Eastern Europe and Central Asia)Global ICT outsourcing player (following India and China)Specialization on the Global Market: Software R&D

“Russia is emerging as the destination of choice for high-end R&D and ADM work: the ability of Russian companies to tackle the non-standard tasks essential for troubleshooting, product development, and managing high-end, complex projects” [Source: IDC]

Strengths:Human capital:

large talent pool, good education, analytical thinking, problem solving, stable teams

Domestic market is growing: Russia is the target market for 89% of Russian outsourcing companies, the growth of domestic market is the main trend in 2010 [Source: RUSSOFT Survey]

Cultural and geographical proximity to EuropeTime-zone differences, the closer cultural fit, the similar work ethic, the clear understanding of business issues mentioned as differentiatingRussia from other offshore locations [Source: IDC)


Export of Software and Services fromRussia

Source: annual report of Russoft, 2011


Mobile markets

MTS, Beeline, Megafon are major playerswith 10sMio users, aimed at the Global market (India, Ukraine,…). International competitors play secondaryrole (Tele 2) or get minority in JVs(Megafon, Beeline)Telecom and Internet go Mobile


Sustainability question marks

Competitiveness and diversification of the Russian economyGlobal integration versus regional protectionismCommodities & State and Good GovernanceDiversification of the ICT sectorEducation and Demographics


Toward a new global equilibrium?


Some remaining weaknesses

Still, GDP per capita lags at a very low level.Despite the growth the overall domesticICT market size is small.Truly global R&D in most countries companies is still a long way away.

Besides, in spite of the growth of R&D expenditure, the level remains modest

Strong presence of foreign companies in the ICT (FDI).


Revealed competitive advantage in communication equipment trade

Source: OECD CoccCommuniECD Communications Outlook


Toward a new global equilibrium?

Is the growth model sustainable?Resiliency to crisis: Russia and South Africa badly hit, Brazil and China more resilientLimits of the innovation model? Need to change pace for R&D?Shortage of skilled workers? Need for improvement of the quality and quantity of science?

Role of the BRIC countries in global production's networks? As a part of a global value chain?

Relationship with China: what kind of division of labour?China as the world’s assembler not the world’s factory.

Potential evolution with increasing disintegration of innovation capabilitiesMoving up the value chain?.Is low cost different from low tech?


Drastic shifts in trade?The emerging trade relationships between Asia and Brazil displaced the former relationships with other regions like the EU and the USA.

Between 1998 and 2007, the volume of imports from China toward Brazil grew at an "exorbitant" four digit rate (over 2000%) (Kubota and Nogueira Milani, 2009) with an average annual increase of 46.60%.

For South Africa most of its high-tech imports came from China, Russia: « Northern locomotive between West and East » (S.Schandera)


[email protected]

Data from the set of Predict reports: Performance of R&D, Internationalisationof ICT R&D, ICT in BRIC countries 1, The 2011 Report on R&D in ICT in the European Union.

IPTS publications page:http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3759BRIC webpagehttp://is.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pages/ISG/PREDICT/BRIC.html

All pictures except when noted: Jean Paul Simon

mailto:[email protected]

http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3759

http://is.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pages/ISG/PREDICT/BRIC.html


MERCI

Source: Desclozeaux

[email protected]

Les TICs dans les BRICS - IPTS - JRC -...

Documents

Transcript of Les TICs dans les BRICS - IPTS - JRC -...