LED Industry Outlook in 2016seminar.trendforce.com/TRI/AnnualForecast2015/TW/ppt...Sep-14 2 204...

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 8 October 2015 |

LED Industry Outlook in 2016

Duff Liu15 Oct. 2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 8 October 2015 | Page 2

Outline: LED Industry Outlook in 2016

LEDMarket

LightingMarket

NicheMarket

Competition and Low-Price Change LED Industry

Low Price LED Lighting Era

Revolution of LED 2.0


2014-2019 LED

• LED 2014 $14.2 billion (YoY +7%) LEDinside 2015 $14.52

billion(YoY+2%) 2014-2019 3%

HB LED Market Forecast (2014~2019)

2014~2019 CAGR 3 %

M USD

Lighting Keeps To Grow Up

ASP

Penetration

MarketScale

M USD

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Lighting Mobile appliance Large display backlight

Automotive Signs & Signal Other


• MOCVD 70%

• 2014 200

LED

Global New MOCVD Installation By RegionMOCVD Volume in China

304

726

954

1,117

1,285

1,473

0%

100%

200%

300%

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

set China YoY


• 2014 4Q

LED


LED

LED 2014)

85%15% 43%57%

• LEDinside 2014 LED 30 2014 LED 82

85% 3% 2014 LED 43%

• LED


LED

•

• LED


LED

45425486

638

7412007

2350

2013 2014

China Taiwan International

YoY+17%

YoY+16%

YoY+21%

2013-2014 LED

• 2014 LED 86 54.9 63%


LED

• MLS

• FLASH LED

Lumens

MLS

Seoul Semi

LG Innotek

Everlight

Lumileds

OSRAM Opto.

Samsung LED

CREE

Nichia

2014 2013 Lumens

MLS

Seoul Semi

LG Innotek

Everlight

CREE

Lumileds

OSRAM Opto.

Samsung LED

Nichia

2014 2013

LED Package Makers' HB LED Revenue RankingLED Package Makers' Revenue Ranking


Low Price LED Lighting Era


Philips Lighting-2 LED USD 4.97!

Philips 8.5W LED A19 2 USD 4.97 5 90 Home Depot

No Energy Star No Omni-Directional No Dimmable 2015

FOB USD1 Home Depot

60W Equiv. LED Lamp

Flux (lm) 800

Power (W) 8.5

Efficacy (lm/W) 94.12

CCT (K) / CRI 2700 / 80

Lifetime (Hrs) 10,000

Energy Star No

Dimmable No

Omni-Directional No

Price (USD) 4.97

Supply Chain


LED

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2012 2013 2014 2015

LED AC/DC Driver Heat Sink Housing

Screw+Glue Assembly Others

$6.3

$4.1

$2.6

$1.3

60W Equiv. LED Bulb Cost Structure 40W Equiv. LED Bulb Cost Structure

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2012 2013 2014 2015

LED AC/DC Driver Heat Sink HousingScrew+Glue Assembly Others

$4.5

$2.9

$1.1 $0.86


2015 LED

Million Pieces

Company 2014 2015(F)

Philips 100 200Osram 40 50

GE 40 130CREE 20 30

Feit Electric 80 100

IKEA 80 80TCP 30 60

TOSPO 30 60Silynia 20 30

Japanese Brand 100 120India 120

WW Total 1,018 2,356

LED Bulb Shipment Forecast By Each Brand

Note: LED Bulb include A Lamp, MR,PAR Lamp.


LED ,DELP in Delhi

• 5000 LED Osram Surya Orient Philips CG

•

9W LED 3000 2014 1 2015 7 10,175 LED Rs.

310 Rs. 60

• LED 400K LED 2015

Date Million Bulbs Bidding Price(Rs. / Bulb)

Jan-14 0.75 310

Sep-14 2 204

Nov-14 3 149

Feb-15 8 104

Mar-15 8 82

Jun-15 50 77

July-15 30

TotalAs of June 2015 101.75

June2015 COM. QTY Awarded by

EESL (in million)

1 10

2 7

3 7

4 15

5 CG 11


LED

HB LED Revenue in General Lighting(2014~2025)

M USD

• LED 2018~2020 LED

2021


Revolution of LED 2.0


•


10,000

70” 288”110”

100,000

1000,000

P4

P2.5

P2

200,000

144”

$15

$10

LEDinside 2015

USD

• 110

110


398

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LED

Outdoor Indoor Fine pitch

M USD

YOY:225%

•

•

YOY:139%


IR: 760~1200 nm400~760 nm

UV-A320~400

UV-B280~320

UV-C200~280

VUV Deep UV Near UV Visible Light Near IR Middle IR Fare IR

183 375 750 1500 6000 ( nm)

183 375 750 1500 6000 ( nm)

UV

UV

Deep UV

UV

KrFArF

EUV


LED

UV 2014 815 UV LED 15%

UV LED UV-A 90%

UV-A UV

15%

2014 UV Market Scale:USD 815 Million

UV LED UV Lamp

90%

2014 UV LED Market Scale:USD 122 Million

UV-A UV-B UV-C

2014 UVA LED Market Share ByApplication

UV CuringPhotocatalysis Air PurificationSecurity, BanknoteTanningMedicalSensing


122 122

356

0

100

200

300

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2014-2020 UV LED Market Scale

2014-2020 LED

• 2015 385nm 395nm UV-A LED 365nm

USD3.5-4.5 USD2.5-4 USD2-4 USD4-7

• UV LED UV LED

USD / W

M USD

UV-A LED market demandincreases, but the priceplunged.

UV-C LED market driving force,and ban on mercury vapor

lamps

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 2013 2014 2015

2013-2015 UV-A LED Price Trend

365 nm- High

385 nm

405 nm

320nm UV B LED for

repair

320nm UV-B LED forsun tanning, and scarrepair


LED PLUS LED 2.0

LEDLED2.0 lm/$

UV

VLC

IR


Front lighting(DRL, High/Low beam,Position light Turn..)

Rear lamp(Turn Signal, RCL, Brake Light,CHMSL..) Interior Lighting

(Dashboard,Reading..)

.

LED LED

LED

LED : , , , .

LED : LED LED


LED -

LED DRL

LED

( ) DRL

Position, Turn Signal,DRL-Like

High/Low BeamFog Lamp

Dashboard, Reading

DRL, Brake Light5W

1W

0.5W

LEDLED

Front Position0.5~1W

DRL1~5W

Rear Position0.5~1W

Brake Light3~5W


•

Research

•

•

Developing

•

Brand

$

Spec

IT$

Spec

S S

Automotive

4Q 4Y


: (Zone I)

Zone II Zone III

:

Area II75R, 50R: >10,10050: >5,100BR: <1,75025L, 25L: >1,70075L: <10,600

Area I<20,200

Area IV50L:<13,2000.86~1.72D & 5.15L~5.15R: <2,500

Area IIIB50L: <350

Unit: ud


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Pene

trat

ion

rate

Penetration rate by Light Source

Halogen HID LED

LED - -

2,500

HID

LED HID LED

LED

20%

25%

55%

Halogen HID LED

Introduction Time 1960 1990 2007

Lifetime (Hr) 1K 2K 5~10K

Cost 1X 3~5X 8~15X

Dimension Efficiency Mid Mid High

Energy Consumption 4X 2X 1X

: -40 ~105 ( -40 ~125 )

: -4 -~85



TrendForce

LEDinside

WitsView

DRAMeXchange

EnergyTrend

ANAVTI

TRI

Thank you!

Duff Lu ,

Research Directr of LEDinside, TrendForce

[email protected]

www.ledinside.com

LED Industry Outlook in 2016seminar.trendforce.com/TRI/AnnualForecast2015/TW/ppt...Sep-14 2 204...

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