Lectures Behavioral Economics
description
Transcript of Lectures Behavioral Economics
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1
OUTLINE
Behavioral economics
Keystones of traditional economics
RationalityExpected Utility TheoryDiscounted Utility TheoryNash Equilibrium
Adding psychological insights
Class experiment (simple)
Course outline
Q & A
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Introduction
Behavioral Economics
2002 Nobel prize in economics:
Daniel Kahneman: "for having integrated insights frompsychological research into economic science, especially concerninghuman judgment and decision-making under uncertainty"Vernon L. Smith: "for having established laboratory experiments asa tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study ofalternative market mechanisms"
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Introduction
Behavioral Economics
... sometimes called "Economics and Psychology"
Economics ...?
mathematically elegant models of interaction between economic agentsbased on simplied assumptions regarding individual behavior
Psychology
experiments to understand how people think and behave
Behavioral Economics
incorporates psychological regularities into economic models whilestaying formal and predictiveruns experiments to test predictions of existing modelsuses experimental (and eld) evidence to motivate alternative modelsof decision makingapplies new models of DM to other elds: Finance, IO, Labor
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Introduction
Behavioral Economics
Why to care?
Strategies of real rms
Ran Spiegler, 2006. "The Market for Quacks," RESpatient recovers with same probability no matter whether she receivestreatment from healerif all patients are rational, market remains inactiveif some patients reason anecdotally, market becomes activeanecdotal reasoning: patients react to random casual stories as if theyare fully informative of actual quality of healers treatment
Policy recommendations
school cafeteria example from "Nudge"kids are more likely to choose food displayed at eye levelyou do not want to remove unhealthy food from menuwhy not to display healthy food at eye level?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Introduction
Behavioral Economics
What to read?
Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely, 2008
http://www.predictablyirrational.com/ ... for videos
Nudge, Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, 2008
http://nudges.org/ ... for more nudges
Behavior Economics: Past, Present, Future, Colin F. Camerer andGeorge Loewenstein, 2002
Chapter 1 in Advances in Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Keystones of traditional economics
Rationality (MWG Ch.1)
Rational preferences: what is that?
Consider colors: green (G ), orange (O), blue (B)
for each pair, dene preferred color: fG ,Og, fO,Bg, fG ,BgCompleteness
for each pair, preference relation is denedeither G O, or O G , or none
Transitivityif G O and O B, then should be G Bsame for indierence
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Keystones of traditional economics
Rationality (MWG Ch.1)
Rational preferences: where do we use them?
Utility function
only rational preferences can be represented by utility functionany model that has consumers but goes without utility function?
Consistent choices
WARP: if consumer chose X when Y was available, then she willchoose Y only when X becomes unavailable.choice structure generated by rational preferences satises WARPnot every choice structure that satises WARP is necessarily generatedby rational preferences
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Keystones of traditional economics
Expected Utility Theorem (MWG Ch.6)
Simple lotteriesset of possible outcomes, N elementsL = (p1, ..., pN ) ... simple lottery assigns prob pn to each outcome
Continuity axiomsmall changes in probs do not change ordering between two lotteries
Independence axiomL L0 if and only if L+ (1 ) L00 L0 + (1 ) L00, 2 (0, 1)
Expected utility formassign numbers (u1, ..., uN ) to outcomes, s.t.U (L) = u1p1 + ...+ uNpN
Expected Utility TheoremIf DMs preferences over lotteries satisfy continuity and independenceaxioms, then her preferences are representable by utility function withexpected utility form: L L0 if and only if U (L) U (L0)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Keystones of traditional economics
Discounted Utility
Utility from consumption over time
ct ... consumption at time tu () ... instantaneous utility function ... discount factor
Exponential discounting
UfctgTt=t0
=
T
t=t0
tt0u (ct )
Time consistent choice
suppose "X today" is chosen over "Y tomorrow"then "X in one month from today" should be chosen over"Y in one month and one day from today"
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Keystones of traditional economics
Nash Equilibrium (MWG Ch.7)
Classic Prisoners dilemma
two suspects are arrested but evidence is insu cient for convictionpoliceman asks each prisoner to testify for prosecution against anotherif both remain silent, they are sentenced to only six monthsif one betrays and another remains silent, betrayer goes free, silent onereceives 10-year sentenceif both betray, each receives 5-year sentencethey should decide simultaneously whether to stay silent or to betray
Nash equilibrium
each player chooses strategyno player can benet by changing his strategy while another player isnot changing his
What is Nash equilibrium in Prisoners dilemma?
(betray, betray)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Choose preferred color for slides:
334400 335500 ...?335500 334400 ...?334400 335500 ...?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Choose preferred color for slides:
335500 336600 ...?336600 335500 ...?335500 336600 ...?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Choose preferred color for slides:
336600 337700 ...?337700 336600 ...?336600 337700 ...?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Choose preferred color for slides:
337700 338800 ...?338800 337700 ...?337700 338800 ...?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Choose preferred color for slides:
334400 338800 ...?338800 334400 ...?334400 338800 ...?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 16 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Adding psychology into economics
Violation of transitivity
Most people are indierent in rst four choices
334400 335500335500 336600336600 337700337700 338800
Transitivity requires that
334400 338800
But usually it is not
either 334400 338800or 338800 334400
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 17 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Class experiment
Rules
keep silence
imagine you are choosing magazine subscription
read carefully description of all options
choose one optionsubmit your answers
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 18 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Class experiment
Group #1
three alternatives2nd alternative is denitely worse than 3rd alternative
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 19 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Class experiment
Group #2
two alternativesdominated alternative is removed
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 20 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Class experiment
Discussion
example taken from "Predictably Irrational"
subjects from MITs Sloan School of Management/ our class
Group #1
Internet only subscription for $59 ... 16 students/ 4 studentsPrint only subscription for $125 ... zero student/ zero studentsPrint-and-Internet subscription for $125 ... 84 students/ 4 students
Group #2
Internet only subscription for $59 ... 68 students/ 9 studentsPrint-and-Internet subscription for $125 ... 32 students/ 3 students
context eect
preferences between options depend on what other options are inchoice set
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 21 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Course Outline
Main Requirements
Prepare experiment and participate in other experiments5 groups of 4 students10 points* for preparing experiment, 5 points for participating5 bonus points for participating in each paid experimentmax 30 points, plus 10 bonus points possible
Apply behavioral theories for solving formal problemshome assignmentgroups of 2 studentsmax 20 points
Find practical application of Behavioral Economicsessay/ research proposalgroups of 2 studentsmax 30 points
Final testindividualmax 20 points
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 22 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Course Outline
Topics for experiments
20/04: framing, anchoring & preference reversal27/04: do people choose according to EUT?04/05: do people discount exponentially?11/05: other regarding preferences18/05: cognitive limitations
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 23 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Course Outline
Experimental practices
from Hertwig & Ortmann 2001
Script enactment
state action choices explicitly
Repeated trials
allow gaining experience with situation
Financial incentives
set goal to perform as well as possible
Proscription against deception
exclude second-guessing about purpose of experiment
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 24 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 1 Course Outline
Q&A
Ask now ...
... or contact by email: [email protected]
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 25 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2
Lecture plan
Review: standard assumptions about preferences
Class experiment
problem solvingdiscussion of possible eectspresentation of results, comparison with results usually obtained
Summary: most common anomalies in preferences
denitionshow it may lead to choice inconsistencypotential explanations
Modeling anomalies in preferences
reference dependencemental accounting
Applications
power of default option in saving for retirement
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Review
Standard assumptions about preferences
completeness
for each pair of alternatives, X and Y , preferences uniquely denedeither X Y , or Y X , or none
transitivity
if X Y and Y Z , then should be X Zsame for indierence
invariance w.r.t.
current endowment / consumption levelirrelevant alternativeselicitation procedure
=> consistency of choices
WARP: if consumer chose X when Y was available, then she willchoose Y only when X becomes unavailable.choice structure generated by rational preferences satises WARP
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Class experiment
Procedure
problem solving
discussion of possible eects
presentation of results, comparison with results usually obtained
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Framing eect
framing eect:
way how choice problem is stated aects choice
may cause inconsistency:
DM chooses X over Y when Y is presented in terms of lossesbut may choose Y over X when Y is presented in terms of gains
one explanation:
people are passive DMs: they rely on easily available heuristics
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Anchoring eect
anchoring eect:
irrelevant factors aect which values are assigned to alternativeshowever, relative values are not aected... coherent arbitrariness
may cause inconsistency:
DM assigns higher value to X than to Y when evaluates them togetherbut may assign higher value to Y than to X when evaluates separately
one explanation:
arbitrary number serves as original valuewhile nal value is product of adjusting original value
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Endowment eect
endowment eect:
ownership makes good more attractivepreferences for X and Y depend on which of them DM owns
may cause inconsistency:
DM chooses X over Y when she owns Xbut may choose Y over X when she owns nothing
one explanation:
"yeah, whatever" heuristic
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Preference reversal
preference reversal:
revealed preferences depend on elicitation procedure
likely to cause inconsistency:
DM chooses X over Y when asked directly to choosebut may request more money for giving up Y than for giving up X
competing explanations:
intransitivity: Y CY CX X Yoverpricing of Y , CY Y , underpricing of X , X CX
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Context eect
context eect:
presence of other alternatives in choice set aects choice
may cause inconsistency:
DM chooses X over Y when there is X in choice setbut may choose Y over X when X is removed
one explanation:
di cult to compare X and Ybut easy to notice that X is better than X
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Summary
Anomalies: common explanations
preferences are constructedreference dependence & loss aversionmisleading but simple heuristics
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Modeling anomalies in preferences
Reference dependence
(based on Kahneman & Tversky, 1991)
choice set... X = fx , y , z , ...greference structure... indexed preference relations x r y
r ... complete, transitive, continuous
reference independence in standard theory
x r y if and only if x s y for all x , y , r , s 2 X
related questions
what determines reference statehow reference state aects preferences
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Modeling anomalies in preferences
Loss aversion: Denition
(based on Kahneman & Tversky, 1991)
intuition... people dislike losses more than they like equivalent gains,shift in reference point turns gains into losses
compare alternatives across two dimensions
x ... work in Prague, y ... work in Ektb,r ... study in Prague, s... study in Ektb1st (location): x1 = r1 > s1 = y12nd (income): y2 > r2 = s2 > x2
preference relation satises loss aversion:
x s y implies that x r y
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Modeling anomalies in preferences
Loss aversion: Illustration
DM at s-state compares:
v1(x1 s1)gain
+ v2(x2 s2)loss
v2(y2 s2)gain
DM at r-state compares:
v2(x2 r2)loss
v1(y1 r1)loss
+ v2(y2 r2)gain
=> gain from x becomes loss from y
loss averse DM
dislikes losses more than likes gainsassume she is indierent between x and y at s-statethen she should prefer x to y at r -statewhat if she is indierent between x and y at r -state?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Modeling anomalies in preferences
Mental accounting
(based on Kahneman & Tversky, 1984)
choice problem
store A: X costs 200RUB, Y costs 2000RUBstore B1: 20 min away, X costs 100RUB , Y costs 2000RUBstore B2: 20 min away, X costs 200RUB , Y costs 1900RUB
minimal account
disregard features that alternatives sharecompare only dierences between alternatives
topical account
relate consequences of possible outcomes to reference level
comprehensive account
incorporate other factors, incl. current wealth, possible earnings, etc.
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Applying knowledge of anomalies in preferences
Saving for retirement problem
standard economic theory suggests:
calculate how much you will earn over lifetimegure out how much you will need when you retiresave up enough for retirement without sacricing too much now
dened-benet retirement plans:
pensions are proportion to salary and years of serviceadvantage: easy to participatedisadvantage: not friendly to those who change jobs frequently
dened-contribution retirement plans:
participants have personal accounts to make specied contributionsadvantage: completely portabledisadvantage: too many decisions to make
main negative consequence of choice complexity:
too low participation rate
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Applying knowledge of anomalies in preferences
Power of default option
(based on Madrian & Shea, 2001)
401k retirement plans in U.S.
worker can choose portion of her wage to be contributed to her 401kaccount before income taxes are paid
initial form:
"Check this box if you would like to participate in a 401k. Indicate howmuch youd like to contribute."participation rate 38%
updated form:
"Check this box if you would not like to have 3% of your pay checkput into a 401k."participation rate 86%
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 16 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Next lecture
Food for thought
How studied eects may change predictions of your favorite theories
How studied eects may be used to explain seeming paradoxes
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 17 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 2 Next lecture
Topics for experiments
20/04: framing, anchoring & preference reversal
27/04: do people choose according to EUT?04/05: do people discount exponentially?
11/05: other regarding preferences
18/05: cognitive limitations
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 18 / 18
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3
Lecture plan
Choice under risk and uncertainty:
expected utility theoremrisk attitudeEUT at work
Class experiment:
common consequence eectcommon ratio eectreection eectfourfold pattern of risk attitude
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Choice under risk and uncertainty
Preferences over lotteries
Simple lotteries:set of possible outcomes, N elementsL = (p1, ..., pN ) ... simple lottery assigns prob pn to each outcome
Rationality:completenesstransitivity
Continuity:there are no "jumps" in ordering of preferences=> preferences are not lexicographic
EU form:it is possible to assign numbers (u1, ..., uN ) to outcomes, s.t.U (L) = u1p1 + ...+ uNpN
Independence axiom:L L0 if and only if L+ (1 ) L00 L0 + (1 ) L00, 2 (0, 1)possibility to get L00 should not aect preferences between L and L0
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Choice under risk and uncertainty
Preferences over lotteries: Example
Possible outcomes:X1... rainy, X2... cloudy, X3... sunnyassign numbers to weather conditions:X1 !?, X2 !?, X3 !?
Lotteries = resorts:L = (p1, p2, p3), p1... prob rain, p2... prob clouds, p3... prob sunL... Barcelona in June, L = (?, ?, ?)EU form: U (L) =?
Equilateral triangle with altitude=1:
pn ... length of perpendicular from L to side opposite to vertex n
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Choice under risk and uncertainty
Independence axiom: Closer look
Independence axiom implies that indierence curves are:
straight: L L0 if and only if L 12L0 +12L (b)
parallel: L L0 if and only if 13L+23L
00 13L0 +23L
00 (c)
Illustration:
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Choice under risk and uncertainty
Expected Utility Theorem
Assumptions on preferences over lotteries:
rationalcontinuoussatisfy independence axiom
Expected Utility Theorem:
preferences are representable by utility function with EU formnotation: L L0 if and only if U (L) U (L0)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Choice under risk and uncertainty
Risk attitude
Expected outcome vs. expected utility
E (X ) = p1X1 + ...+ pNXNEU (L) = p1u (X1) + ...+ pNu (XN )
Risk-neutral DM: EU (L) = U [E (X )]indierent between lottery and its expected outcome
Risk-averse DM: EU (L) < U [E (X )]likes lottery less than its expected outcome
Risk-seeking DM: EU (L) > U [E (X )]likes lottery more than its expected outcome
How risk attitude aects shape of indierence curves
more risk-averse DM has steeper I.C.s
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Class experiment
Do people choose according to EUT?
Motivation:
can EUT be supported empirically?
Procedure:
problem solvingdiscussion of possible eectspresentation of results, comparison with results usually obtained
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Class experiment
Common consequence eect
Allais paradox #1:
outcomes: X1... $5, 000, X2... $1, 000, X3... $0S 0 = (0, 1, 0) vs. R 0 = (0.1, 0.89, 0.01)S 00 = (0, 0.11, 0.89) vs. R 00 = (0.1, 0, 0.9)
Structure of choice problem:
nonnegative monetary outcomes: X1 > X2, X3 = 0, CS = (0, p, 0, 1 p)R = (p, 0, (1 ) p, 1 p)C ... common consequence, should have no eect
Experimental evidence:
tendency to choose S when C = X2 (S 0 vs. R 0)tendency to choose R when C = X3 (S 00 vs. R 00)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Class experiment
Common ratio eect
Allais paradox #2:
outcomes: X1... $4, 000, X2... $3, 000, X3... $0S 0 = (0, 1, 0) vs. R 0 = (0.8, 0, 0.2)S 00 = (0, 0.25, 0.75) vs. R 00 = (0.2, 0, 0.8)
Structure of choice problem:
nonnegative monetary outcomes: X1 > X2, X3 = 0S = (0, p, 1 p)R = (p, 0, 1 p)... constant ratio of winning probabilitiesp should have no eect
Experimental evidence:
tendency to choose S when p is hightendency to choose R when p is low
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Class experiment
Reection eect
Kahneman & Tversky (1979)
related to framing eect
Structure of choice problem:
monetary outcomes: jX1 j > jX2 j, X3 = 0S = (0, p, 1 p)R = (p, 0, 1 p)
Experimental evidence
tendency to choose S when X1 > X2 > 0tendency to choose P when X1 < X2 < 0
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 3 Class experiment
Fourfold pattern of risk attitude
Domain of gains:
risk averse when probability of winning is highrisk seeking when probability of winning is low
Domain of losses:
risk averse when probability of losing is lowrisk seeking when probability of losing is high
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4
Lecture plan
Previous lecture:
independence axiomrisk attitude
Summary of class experiment:
common consequence eectcommon ratio eectreection eectfourfold pattern of risk attitude
Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
generalizations of EUTprospect theorypriority heuristic
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Generalizying expected utility model
"Fanning-out" hypothesis (Machina, 1982):
agents become more risk-averse as lotteries become betterutilities assigned to outcomes are lottery-specicweak independence: L L0 i for each 2 (0, 1) there can found 2 (0, 1), s.t. L+ (1 ) L00 L0 + (1 ) L00 for any L00
Theories with decision weights:
EU (L) = (p1) u (X1) + ...+ (pN ) u (XN )standard theory: (pi ) = pi
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Reminder: reference dependence
Choice set... X = fx , y , ..., r , s, ...gchoosing between x and y , while having either r , or s
Reference structure... indexed preference relations x r yr , s ... complete, transitive, continuous
Reference independence in standard theory
x r y if and only if x s y for all x , y , r , s 2 X
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Reminder: loss aversion
Intuition... people dislike losses more than they like equivalent gains,shift in reference point turns gains into losses
Compare alternatives across two dimensions
x ... unemployed in Prague, y ... work in Ektb,r ... study in Prague, s... study in Ektb1st (location): x1 = r1 > s1 = y12nd (income): y2 > r2 = s2 > x2
Preference relation satises loss aversion:
x s y implies that x r y
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 16 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979)
1st phase of choice process:
"edit" lotteries using decision heuristicsex.#1: eliminate lotteries that do not satisfy chosen criterionex.#2: classify outcomes in terms of gains and losses
2nd phase of choice process:
evaluate "edited" lotteries using decision-weighted formvalue of each outcome depends on its sign and size
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 17 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Prospect theory: valuation of outcomes
Shape of value function:
Properties:
kinked at reference pointconcave for gains/ convex for losses , diminishing sensitivitysteeper in domain of losses , loss-aversion
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 18 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertainty
Priority heuristic
Search for:
minimum payoprobability of minimum payomaximum payo
Stop search if:
dierence between minimum payos is > 10% of maximum payodierence between probabilities of minimum payos > 10%maximum payos are dierent
Decide for lotteries with:
larger minimum payosmaller probability of minimum payolarger maximum payo
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 19 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Why do we need theory of decision making?
EUT at work: Corruption
Problem:
took credit for opening new business but it may take too long
Possible outcomes:
X1... never open, X2... open in 1 year, X3... open in 1 month1, 2, 3... computed prots/ losses in each case
Choice over two lotteries:
L = (p1, p2, p3)... do everything legallyL0 = (p01, p
02, p
03)... give bribery of size B, pay ne of size F if caught
Decision rule: give bribery if and only if
p01u (1 B F ) + p02u (2 B) + p03u (3 B) p1u (1) + p2u (2) + p3u (3)
Policy recommendations:
eectiveness of measures against corruption
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 20 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Why do we need theory of decision making?
Food for thought
How do we usually make theory-based policy recommendations?
assume specic functional formsestimate parameters of functional forms using available datado comparative statics
What if EUT is replaced with more general theory?
more functional forms to imposemore parameters to estimaterecommendations are more "conditional"
What to do? Where to go?
open question, solutions welcomed
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 21 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4 Next lecture
Topics for experiments
20/04: framing, anchoring & preference reversal
27/04: do people choose according to EUT?
03/05: do people discount exponentially?11/05: other regarding preferences
18/05: cognitive limitations
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 22 / 22
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5
Lecture plan
Discounted utility model:
historical originsmodelimplicit assumptions
Discounted utility anomalies (class experiment):
common dierence eectabsolute magnitude eectgain-loss asymmetrydelay-speedup asymmetry
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
Historical origins
Eective desire for accumulation, Rae 1834:
promoted by: bequest and self-restraintlimited by: uncertainty and gratication from immediate consumptionthese are determinants of intertemporal choice
Systematic underestimation of future wants, Bohm-Bawerk 1889:
intertemporal choice as decision about allocating resources to oneselfover dierent points in time
Time preference, Fisher 1930:
MRS of consumption today with consumption tomorrowshould controlled for diminishing MU of consumptioncombination of various (psychological) intertemporal motives
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
Simple formulation
Discounted utility model, Samuelson 1937:
all psychological motives compressed into discount rate ct , ..., cT ... consumption prolespreferences transitive, complete, continuousu (ct ) ... instantaneous utility functionUt (ct , ..., cT ) ... intertemporal utility function
Ut (ct , ..., cT ) =Ttk=0
D (k) u (ct+k ) , where
D (k) =
11+
k= k ... discount function
not psychologically plausiblenot normatively plausible
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
More formulas
Intertemporal utility in continuous time:
U t (ct , ..., ct 0 , ..., cT ) =Z Ttk=0
eku (ct+k ) dt
How to impute discount rate:
given X at t, how big should be Y at t 0 to make you indierent?assumption: X at t and Y at t 0 are small relative to ct and ct 0then Ut (ct + X , ..., ct 0 , ..., cT ) = U
t (ct , ..., ct 0 + Y , ..., cT )implies X = Ye(t
0t)
= 1t 0 t ln
XY
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
Consumption independence
Utility in period t + k is independent of consumption in period s
X ,Y ,Z ... consumption possibilitiesX Y in period r when Z is consumed in period r 0 iX Y in period r when Z is not consumed in period r 0
Example (Samuelson 1952):
X ... wine, Y ... milk, Z ... beerr ... today, r 0... yesterdayassume X Y in period r when Z is not consumed in period r 0is it true that X Y in period r when Z is consumed in period r 0?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
Constant discounting and time consistency
Discount function
general form: D (k) =k1n=0
1
1+n
form imposed in DU model: D (k) =
11+
k= k
constraint: constant per-period discount rate, n = 8n
Time-consistent intertemporal preferences:
later preferences "conrm" earlier preferencesif (X at r) t (Y at r + d) for some r , then(X at r) t (Y at r + d) for all r
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Discounted utility model
Other implicit assumptions
Utility independence
distribution of utility across time makes no dierencee.g. if higher utility at r in one consumption prole is compensated byhigher utilities at r 1 and r + 1 in another consumption prole, twoproles are treated as identical
Stationary instantaneous utility
u (ct ) = u (ct+1) if ct = ct+1that is, tastes do not change over time
Diminishing marginal utility
motivates to spread consumption over time
Positive discount rate
motivates to concentrate consumption in present
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Class experiment
Discounted utility anomalies
Motivation:
can DU model be supported empirically?are deviations, if any, systematic?
Procedure:
problem solvingdiscussion of possible eectspresentation of results, comparison with results usually obtained
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Class experiment
Common dierence eect
Predictions of DU model:
extra consumption: X at t or Y at t 0
= 1t 0t lnXY
only dierence between t 0 and t matters, not their values
Experimental task:
C1: (A) 1 apple today or (B) 2 apples tomorrowC2: (A) 1 apple in 365 days or (B) 2 apples in 366 days
Experimental evidence:
[some] people choose A in C1 and Bin C2this suggests dynamic inconsistency: people claim that Bis betterthan A, but, once 365 days pass, they choose Aover B
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Class experiment
Absolute magnitude eect
Predictions of DU model:
extra consumption: X at t or Y at t 0
= 1t 0t lnXY
only ratio between X and Y matters, not their absolute values
Experimental task:
Q1: amount to be received in 1 month (Y ) that would make youindierent to 100RUB now (X )Q2: amount to be received in 1 month (Y 0) that would make youindierent to 100, 000RUB now (X 0)
Experimental evidence:
proportion in Q1XY
is usually lower than in Q2
X 0Y 0
this implies that is lower for higher absolute values of X
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Class experiment
Gain-loss asymmetry
Predictions of DU model:
gains/ equivalent losses: X at t or Y at t 0
= 1t 0t lnXY
only ratio between X and Y matters, not their signs
Experimental task:
Q1: friend cannot return you X today, how much would you requirehim to return in one month (Y )?Q2: you cannot return X today, how much would you oer to return inone month (Y 0)?
Experimental evidence:
answer in Q1 (Y ) is usually higher than in Q2 (Y 0)this implies that is lower for losses than for gains
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 5 Class experiment
Delay-speedup asymmetry
Predictions of DU model:
extra consumption: X at t or delay/ speedup Y /Y 0 to t + 1/t 1 = 1t 0t ln
XY
ratio YX should be same as
XY 0
Experimental task:
Q1: have chance to receive Y at t 1 instead of X at tQ2: have chance to receive Y 0 at t + 1 instead of X at t
Experimental evidence:
proportion in Q1YX
is usually lower than in Q2
XY 0
this implies that is lower for higher absolute values of X
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6
Lecture plan
Discounted utility anomalies
summary of class experiments
Alternative models of intertemporal choice
hyperbolic discounting modelsrole of self-awarenessreference-point modelsmental accounting
Why do we need models of intertemporal choice?
saving and consumption over timeaddiction
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Class experiments: summary
Discounted utility anomalies
Median responses from Thaler 1981:X today equivalent Y discount equivalent Y discount
in 3 months rate in 1 year rategain $15 $30 277 $60 139gain $250 $300 73 $350 34loss $15 $16 26 $20 29
Discount rate is lower for:
more distant time horizonsbigger gainslosses
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Class experiments: summary
Discounted utility anomalies
Discount factor =
11+
as function of time:
increasing, implying decreasing discount rate constant if 1st period removed
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 16 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Alternative models of intertemporal choice
Hyperbolic discounting
Discount function introduced in Phelps & Pollak 1968:
D (k) =1 if k = 0
k if k > 0
declining discount rate between today and future periodsconstant discount rate between two periods in future
1 apple today or 2 apples tomorrow:
A vs. 2A
1 apple in 365 days or 2 apples in 366 days:
365A vs. 3662A => A vs. 2A
Time inconsistency when:
< 12 but >12
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 17 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Alternative models of intertemporal choice
Role of seld-awareness
Naive DM
believes that future preferences will be identical to currentfrequently has "planning fallacy"
Sophisticated DM
correctly predicts how preferences will change over timedemand for commitment: intention to exclude tempting futurealternatives
Partially naive DM
knows that will experience self-control problems but underestimatestheir magnitude
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 18 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Alternative models of intertemporal choice
Reference dependent utility
Instantaneous utility function
u (c, r) = v (c r)r... reference point, determined by past cons, expectations, etcv () concave over gains, convex over lossesv () allows loss-aversion
Implications
explains most anomalies experimentally observedexplains failure of Permanent Income Hypothesis: anticipated changesin wages aect consumption growth rate while they should not
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 19 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Alternative models of intertemporal choice
Mental accounting
Basic idea
money spent on dierent purposes are not same as dierentexpenditures are assigned to dierent "mental accounts"like keeping money in labeled jarsconsumption of particular item is linked to payment for it
Implications
dierent ways of nancing purchase can lead to dierent decisionspreference for prepaymentpreference for getting paid after doing work
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 20 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Why do we need models of intertemporal choice
Addiction within DU model
Rational addiction, Becker and Murphy 1988
well-being depends on consumption of nonaddictive goods, addictivegoods and addictive stateaddictive state: " with use of substance, # with abstinencetolerance: well-being # when addictive state "addiction: MU of addictive good " when addictive state "
Justifying government intervention
educational policies to inform people about eectsPigouvian tax per unit = marginal external damage imposed on others
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 21 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Why do we need models of intertemporal choice
Problematic empirical observations
Unsuccessful attempts to quit
70% of current smokers express desire to quit completely, 41% stopsmoking for at least one day, only 4.7% abstained for more than threemonths
Starting again caused by cues
change in environment helpsstress and "priming" may bring addiction back
Self-control through precommitment
voluntary "lock-up" into rehabilitationmedication that generate unpleasant side-eect if substance used
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 22 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Why do we need models of intertemporal choice
Addiction within hyperbolic discounting model
Hyperbolic discounting, Gruber and Koszegi 2001
true preferences correspond to standard exponential discountingdecision-making according to hyperbolic discountingpresent-biased preferences
Nonstandard policy implications
Pigouvian tax should count for "internalities"... externalities imposedon future selveseducational policies not su cient as they do not address causes ofpresent bias
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 23 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Why do we need models of intertemporal choice
Addiction as decision-process malfunction
Two individual modes, Bernheim and Rangel 2004
"cold" mode: properly functioning decision-making process"hot" mode: decisions and preferences may divergeprobability of entering "hot" mode depends on: addictive state, chosenlifestyle, random eventsaddiction: " use of substance ) " addictive state ) " probability ofhot mode
Nonstandard policy implications
important: policies should not harm those who choose to usesubstances in cold stateconsumption in hot mode is less sensitive to taxes ) higher taxesneeded ) distorted decisions in cold mode ) e.g. higher probabilityof committing crimeelimination of problematic cues helps (advertising, peer eects)promotion of counter-cues ("smoking kills")
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 24 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6 Next lecture
Topics for experiments
20/04: framing, anchoring & preference reversal
27/04: do people choose according to EUT?
03/05: do people discount exponentially?
11/05: other regarding preferences18/05: cognitive limitations
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 25 / 25
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7
Lecture plan
Introduction to Game Theory
historical originsbasic elements and concepts
Do people play as theory predicts? (class experiment)
ultimatum gamedictator gametrust game
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Introduction to Game Theory
Historical origins
Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944
mathematician and economist created Game Theorymathematical tool to describe human behavior in strategic situationswhen payos depend also on actions of othersVon Neumann as member of US Atomic Energy Commission
1994 Nobel prize in Economics
for pioneering analysis of equilibria in theory of noncooperative games
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Introduction to Game Theory
Simultaneous game: Prisoners dilemma
Game:Prisoners cannot communicate Prisoner ABoth suspected of a crime Confess DenyPrisoner B Confess {3 years, 3 years} {1 year, 10 years}
Deny {10 years, 1 year} {2 years, 2 years}
Players: Prisoner A, Prisoner BActions: Confess or Deny for both playersPayos: numbers represent rational preferences over possibleoutcomes s.t. higher number implies higher desirability
Equilibrium: {action of Prisoner A, action of Prisoner B}Applications for oligopoly:
enter price war or keep prices constant at high levelstart advertising campaign or not
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Introduction to Game Theory
Sequential game: Market entry
Game: low-cost airline decides whether to enter Aeroots market
if low-cost airline does not enter, Aeroot keeps market powerif low-cost airline enters, Aeroot should decide whether to lower pricesif Aeroot does not lower prices, low-cost airline gets big market shareif Aeroot lowers prices, low-cost airline does not survive
Players: low-cost airline, AerootActions: Enter or Not Enter, Fight or AccommodatePayos: positively correlate with possible protsStrategies: same as actions, conditional on low-cost airlines actionsEquilibrium: {action of low-cost airline, strategy of Aeroot}
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Introduction to Game Theory
How to nd equilibrium
Nash equilibrium ... set of actions
given particular outcome, does any player have incentive to deviateincentive to deviate ... possibility of higher payo from dierentaction assuming that another player does not deviateequilibrium if there are no such incentives to any playercan be found using elimination of dominated actionssometime there are no dominated actions but NE exists
Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium ... set of strategies
given particular outcome, does any player have incentive to deviateincentive to deviate ... possibility of higher payo from dierentstrategy assuming that another player does not deviateequilibrium if there are no such incentives to any playerfound using backward inductionSPNE is subset of NE, "empty threats" are excluded
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Introduction to Game Theory
Underlying assumptions
Rational players
complete and transitive preferences over payos
Common knowledge
each player knows that other players are rationalhe also knows that they know that he knows that they are rationaland so on...
Complete information
possible actions and payos are known to all players
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Class experiment
Do people play games as theory predicts?
Motivation:
what are conditions under which theory works (if any)?if there are any deviations, are they systematic?
Procedure:
problem solvingpresentation of results, comparison with results usually obtained
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Class experiment
Ultimatum game
Roles:
Player A: propose share of endowment to Player BPlayer B: accept or reject
Rules:
if Player B accepts, then endowment is divided as proposedif Player B rejects, everybody gets nothingyou know your role but not with whom you are matched
Game theory predictions:
Player A proposes minimum possiblePlayer B accepts whatever is proposed
Common results:
average oer is 40%oers below 20% are rejected
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Class experiment
Dictator game
Roles:
Player A: allocate endowment between yourself and Player BPlayer B: passive
Rules:
whatever Player A proposes is acceptedcompletely anonymous
Game theory predictions:
Player A gives nothing to Player B
Results:
40% of Players A give nothing40% of Players A split evenly
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 7 Class experiment
Trust game
Roles:
Player A: invest share of endowment to Player BPlayer B: return share of "accumulated capital" to Player A
Rules:
endowment invested by Player A is multiplied by factor kwhatever Player B returns is accepted
Game theory predictions:
Player A invests nothingPlayer B keeps everything
Results:
trust: positive amounts investedtrustworthiness: positive amounts returned
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8
Lecture plan
Human behavior in simple games
discussion of class experiments
Alternative theories of interactive behavior
inequity aversionfairness equilibrium
What is game theory good for
monopoly pricing as ultimatum game
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Experimental practices
from Hertwig & Ortmann 2001
Script enactment
state action choices explicitlyclear connection between action and payo"clear" means there is no confusion, though uncertainty is possible
Repeated trials/ practice rounds
allow gaining experience with situationfeedback makes connection between action and payo more clear
Financial incentives
set goal to perform as well as possible
Proscription against deception
exclude second-guessing about purpose of experiment
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Ultimatum game
Comparison across countries, Roth et al. 1991:country 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-100 mean
oer frequencies
USA 0.04 0.33 0.63 0.46Japan 0.17 0.34 0.48 0.43Israel 0.03 0.13 0.20 0.57 0.07 0.35Slovenia 0.03 0.27 0.70 0.47
conditional rejection frequenciesUSA 1.00 0.22 0.12 0.19Japan 0.20 0.10 0.14 0.14Israel 0.00 0.25 0.17 0.12 0.00 0.13Slovenia 1.00 0.63 0.05 0.24
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Ultimatum game
Other interesting ndings:
farmers in developing countries, children and chimpanzee make onaverage lower oers and accept lower amountsthey are more self-interested than adults in developed countries
Potential explanation:
people are born selsh but social norms make them more altruisticpunishment and its anticipation
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Dictator game
Role of nancial incentives and social distancecondition 0 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-100 mean
frequency of allocation to other person
without pay 0.14 0.11 0.26 0.47 0.02 0.38with pay $5 0.35 0.28 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.05 0.23with pay $10 0.21 0.17 0.13 0.29 0.21 0.24recipients ID 0.28 0.08 0.03 0.10 0.18 0.30 0.03 0.26mutual ID 0.07 0.82 0.11 0.50+communic 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.05 0.41 0.30 0.48
stakes do not matter much
reputation matters
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 16 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Trust game
Discriminating between trust and altruism:
treatment A: standard trust game
treatment B: player B cannot return anything
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 17 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Class experiments: discussion
Trust game
Discriminating between trustworthiness and altruism:
treatment A: standard trust gametreatment C: player A is passive, player B decides which proportion toreturn from amounts received by players B in treatment A
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 18 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Inequity aversion: basic idea
Fehr & Schmidt 1999
Intuition:
there is fraction of subjects who dislike inequitable outcomes
Utility function:
two players with payos xi and xjrational preferences represented as
Ui (x) = xi i maxxj xi , 0
| {z }disadvantageousinequality
i maxxi xj , 0
| {z }advantageousinequality
assume i i and 0 i < 1
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 19 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Inequity aversion: illustration
Preferences with inequity aversion
utility loss from being better o is lower than from being worse o
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 20 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Inequity aversion: implications
Constraints on parameters
i i : loss-aversion in social comparisonsi 0: no subjects who like to be better o than otherswhat if i = 1... ?what if i 1... ?
Applied to Ultimatum game
no oers above 0.5oers of 0.5 are always acceptedacceptance threshold is j/
1+ 2j
where j is Responder
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 21 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Fairness equilibrium: basic idea
Rabin 1993
Main idea is to incorporate following stylized facts:
people reward those partners who are nice to themand they punish those who are mean to thememotions have stronger eect as material costs become smaller
Done with including following elements into utility function:
your strategy... aiyour belief about other players strategy choice... bjbelief about other players belief about your strategy... ci
Equilibrium
ai = bi = ci and aj = bj = cj
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 22 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Fairness equilibrium: utility function
Kindness function fi (ai , bj ):how kind i is by choosing ai when she believes that j will choose bjhj
bj/ lj
bj... max/ min possible payos for j with strategy bj
rjbj... avg possible payo for j with strategy bj
jbj , ai
... actual payo for j with strategy bj when i plays ai
fiai , bj
= f
j (bj ,ai )rj (bj )hj (bj )lj (bj )
0 if hj (bj )=lj (bj )
2 [1, 12 ]
Kindness belief function:is belief about how kind j is being to him
gjbj , ci
= f
i (ci ,bj )ri (ci )hi (ci )
li (ci )
0 if hi (ci )=li (ci )
2 [1, 12 ]notations as before
Utility function:
Ui (ai , bj , ci ) = i (ai , bj ) + gj (bj , ci ) [1+ fi (ai , bj )]
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 23 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Alternative models of interactive behavior
Fairness equilibrium: behavioral implications
When i believes that j is treating her badly:
this implies that gjbj , ci
< 0
to compensate, i chooses ai s.t. fiai , bj
< 0
that is, i treats j badly
When i believes that j is treating her nicely
with same logic, i treats j nicely
When material payos grow:
as gjbj , ci
and fi
ai , bj
are bounded, their relative impact on utility
becomes lowerplayers care less about fairness
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 24 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 What is game theory good for
Monopoly pricing as ultimatum game
Game-theoretic approach to monopoly pricing
c ... monopolists cost, v ... consumers valuationmonopolist picks market price p 2 [c , v ]consumer either accepts or rejectsalternatively, consumer selects reservation price r 2 [c , v ]SPNE... ?
Evidence from Kahneman et al. 1986
consumers see conventional monopoly prices as unfairthey refuse to buy even if price is lower their valuationlesson: monopolist cannot set as high prices as theory predicts
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 25 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 What is game theory good for
Monopoly pricing as ultimatum game: fairness
Consumer kindness
fC (r , p) = f 0 if rp1 if r p... no fairness equilibriumr < p... no trade
Monopolists kindness when p = r = z
fM (z , z) = (c z) /2 (v c) < 0
What if consumer deviates from p = r = z
UC = f fM (z ,z )[1+1] if r
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8 Next lecture
Topics for experiments
20/04: framing, anchoring & preference reversal
27/04: do people choose according to EUT?
03/05: do people discount exponentially?
11/05: other regarding preferences
18/05: cognitive limitations
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 27 / 27
-
Behavioral Economics
Natalia Shestakova
Ural State University
Spring 2010
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 1 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9
OUTLINE
How do we think?
predictable biases in judgmenttwo cognitive systems
Class experiment
"Beauty-contest" gamemarket entry game
From rationality to bounded rationality
always making best choice?optimization under constraintsbounded rationality: satiscingbounded rationality: fast and frugal heuristics
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 2 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 How do we think?
Predictable biases in judgment
Two tables (from Shepard 1990):
Guess ratio of length to width of each tableTypical guesses: 5 to 1 for left, 1.5 to 1 for right
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 3 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 How do we think?
Predictable biases in judgment
Availability, accessibility, and salience
familiar risk is seen as more serious than less familiar risk
Representativeness
trying to nd patterns in random sequences
Anchoring and adjustment
when guessing, you need to start from something but adjustment isusually insu cient
Status quo bias
tendency to stick with original choice
Framing
choice depends on whether problem is formulated as gains or losses
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 4 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 How do we think?
Two cognitive systems
Automatic system Reective systemuncontrolled controlledeortless eortfulassociative deductivefast slowunconscious self-awareskilled rule-following
most biases disappear when reective system is on
does it happen with anomalies in risky and intertemporal choices?
what determines which system is on?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 5 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Class experiments
Cognition and coordination
Motivation
does using reective system always lead to correct decisions?what your belief about othersrationality should be?
Procedure
problem solving: several trialsdiscussion of results
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 6 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Class experiments
"Beauty-contest" game
Rules
everyone submits integer between [0, 100]average is computed and multiplied by k < 1number closer to resulting number wins
Nash equilibrium
everyones guess is 0requires iterated thinking
Typical results
peaks at certain levelswinning numbers between 10 and 20 (k = 2/3)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 7 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Class experiments
"Beauty-contest" game
Distribution of choices (Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002)
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 8 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Class experiments
Market entry game
Rules
market capacity c is announcedeveryone decides whether to enterpayo k if stay outpayo k + r (c m) where m... number of entrants, r > k
Nash equilibria: aggregate level
pure strategy: m = c and m = c 1how is it decided who enters and who stays out?!
Typical results
NE at aggregate level is achieved!individual strategies are dierent
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 9 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Class experiments
Market entry game
Individual strategies (Sundali et al. 1995):
s Index measures decision consistency
s Index = 30 ... pure strategiess Index = 15.8 ... mixed strategies
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 10 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 From rationality to bounded rationality
Always making best choices?
What is rationality [once again]?
always leads to consistent choices
What prevents you from always choosing best?
nancial resources are limited (standard budget constraint)information is limiteduncertainty: what is ex ante optimal may not be ex post optimalnding best option is cognitively demanding
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 11 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 From rationality to bounded rationality
Optimization under constraints
Diamond paradox
many examples when under perfect competition prices are higher thanmarginal costs
Explanation
consumer does not know price level at particular shop before visiting ittraveling to next shop is costlythere is no need in price undercutting for rms
Crucial element: stopping rule
compare costs and benets of further search to decide when to stopcomputing costs and benets requires information and cognition
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 12 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 From rationality to bounded rationality
Bounded rationality: satiscing
Simon 1956
search continues until a priori set aspiration level is achieved
Problems
how aspiration level is set?how particular alternative is compared with aspiration level?which alternative is considered rst?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 13 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 From rationality to bounded rationality
Bounded rationality: fast and frugal heuristics
Early example: elimination by aspects
searching for apartmentaspects to compare: price, distance from center, renovation, living areaeliminate ats with price > 15000 RUBwhat if there is perfect option for 15500 RUB?
Recent example: priority heuristics
see lecture on choice under risk and uncertainty
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 14 / 15
-
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 9 Course summary
Behavioral Economics
Standard economic models are practical and elegant butsometimes too abstractPsychological insights and understanding of human behavior ingiven situations help to make models more realisticBut they often lose their elegance
especially, when authors attempt to keep generality
Open question: how to solve trade-o between elegance andrealism?
Natalia Shestakova (Ural State University) Lecture Notes Spring 2010 15 / 15
Lecture1-intro.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 1IntroductionKeystones of traditional economicsAdding psychology into economicsClass experimentCourse Outline
Lecture2-preferences.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 2ReviewClass experimentSummaryModeling anomalies in preferencesApplying knowledge of anomalies in preferencesNext lecture
Lecture3-4-EUT.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 3Choice under risk and uncertaintyClass experiment
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 4Alternative theories of choice under risk and uncertaintyWhy do we need theory of decision making?Next lecture
Lecture5-6-time.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 5Discounted utility modelClass experiment
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 6Class experiments: summaryAlternative models of intertemporal choiceWhy do we need models of intertemporal choiceNext lecture
Lecture7-8-GT.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 7Introduction to Game TheoryClass experiment
Behavioral Economics: Lecture 8Class experiments: discussionAlternative models of interactive behaviorWhat is game theory good forNext lecture
Lecture9-cognition.pdfBehavioral Economics: Lecture 9How do we think?Class experimentsFrom rationality to bounded rationalityCourse summary