Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

74
Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Tec hnology Foued Ayari, PhD

Transcript of Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Page 1: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Lecture in International Finance

Chinese University of Technology

Foued Ayari, PhD

Page 2: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

About Dr Ayari

• Assistant Professor of Finance in New York• President & CEO of Bullquest LLC, a financial training c

ompany.• Partner at Goldstone Property Group Inc• Author of a recently published book:

“Credit Risk Modeling: An Empirical Analysis on Pricing, Procyclicality and Dependence

• Author of a forthcoming book published with Wiley & Sons,

“Understanding Credit Derivatives: Strategies & New Market Developments”.

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Outline

• The FX market

• Currency Forwards

• Eurobond Market

• Eurocurrency Market

• Currency Swaps

• Strategies in FX

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Foreign Exchange Markets• BACKGROUND• Foreign Exchange markets come under Global Markets

Division within Banks. It features are as follows:– OTC market– Major international banks– Spot market and forward market– London is the largest centre

• 7/24 Market with daily Turnover of more than $3,200 Billions (BIS, 2007)

• All currencies are primarily valued against the USD dollar:– USD 1 = JPY 112.26 (in this quote, the most common type, the

USD is the base currency)– EUR 1 = USD 1.2594 (in this quote the USD is the variable

currency)

Page 5: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Correspondent Banking Relationships

• International commercial banks communicate with one another with:– SWIFT: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.

– CHIPS: Clearing House Interbank Payments System

– ECHO Exchange Clearing House Limited, the first global clearinghouse for settling interbank FX transactions.

Page 6: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Spot Market Participants and Trading

• FX MARKET STRUCTURE• The foreign exchange spot markets are QUOTE DRIVEN

markets with international banks as the wholesale participants. This market is also known as the FX inter-bank market.

• International banks act as MARKET MAKERS. They make each other two-way prices on demand:– The bank MAKING the quote bids for the BASE currency on the

left and offers (ask) it on the right. e.g:• GBP 1 = USD 1.8850 (Bid), GBP 1 = USD 1.8860 (Ask)

Becomes:• 1.8850/60

or even• 50/60

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The Foreign Exchange Market• TYPES OF EXCHANGE MARKETS AND CONVENTIONS

• Exchange markets

FX Market

Spot Market

Deals for delivery T + 2

Forward Market

Deals for delivery up to 12 months later than T + 2

FX Swaps Market

Deals with one spot component and one forward component

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Spot & Forward• A spot contract is a binding commitment for an exchange of funds,

with normal settlement and delivery of bank balances following in two business days (one day in the case of North American currencies).

• A forward contract, or outright forward, is an agreement made today for an obligatory exchange of funds at some specified time in the future (typically 1,2,3,6,12 months).

• Forward contracts typically involve a bank and a corporate counterparty and are used by corporations to manage their exposures to foreign exchange risk.

• An FX swap (not to be confused with a cross currency swap) is a contract that simultaneously agrees to buy (sell) an amount of currency at an agreed rate and to resell (repurchase) the same amount of currency for a later value date to (from) the same counterparty, also at an agreed rate.

• Non Deliverable Forwards

Page 9: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

How Factors Can Affect Exchange Rates

Page 10: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forwards• Spot Rates

• Spot is the term used for standard settlement in the FX markets. The spot date is two business days after the trade date: T+2.

– Spot rates are quoted as two way prices between the banks that populate the FX markets:

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

The Spot Market

• Spot Rate Quotations

• The Bid-Ask Spread

• Spot FX trading

• Cross Rates

Page 12: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Spot Rate Quotations

• Direct quotation– the U.S. dollar equivalent– e.g. “a Japanese Yen is worth about a penny”

• Indirect Quotation– the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign

currency– e.g. “you get 100 yen to the dollar”

Page 13: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Spot Rate QuotationsCountry

USD equiv Friday

USD equiv Thursday

Currency per USD Friday

Currency per USD Thursday

Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377

Australia (Dollar) 0.7830 0.7836 1.2771 1.2762

Brazil (Real) 0.3735 0.3791 2.6774 2.6378

Britain (Pound) 1.9077 1.9135 0.5242 0.5226

1 Month Forward 1.9044 1.9101 0.5251 0.5235

3 Months Forward 1.8983 1.9038 0.5268 0.5253

6 Months Forward 1.8904 1.8959 0.5290 0.5275

Canada (Dollar) 0.8037 0.8068 1.2442 1.2395

1 Month Forward 0.8037 0.8069 1.2442 1.2393

3 Months Forward 0.8043 0.8074 1.2433 1.2385

6 Months Forward 0.8057 0.8088 1.2412 1.2364

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Spot Rate Quotations

The direct quote for British pound is:

£1 = $1.9077

CountryUSD equiv Friday

USD equiv Thursday

Currency per USD Friday

Currency per USD Thursday

Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377

Australia (Dollar) 0.7830 0.7836 1.2771 1.2762

Brazil (Real) 0.3735 0.3791 2.6774 2.6378

Britain (Pound) 1.9077 1.9135 0.5242 0.5226

1 Month Forward 1.9044 1.9101 0.5251 0.5235

3 Months Forward 1.8983 1.9038 0.5268 0.5253

6 Months Forward 1.8904 1.8959 0.5290 0.5275

Canada (Dollar) 0.8037 0.8068 1.2442 1.2395

1 Month Forward 0.8037 0.8069 1.2442 1.2393

3 Months Forward 0.8043 0.8074 1.2433 1.2385

6 Months Forward 0.8057 0.8088 1.2412 1.2364

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Spot Rate Quotations

The indirect quote for British pound is:

£.5242 = $1

CountryUSD equiv Friday

USD equiv Thursday

Currency per USD Friday

Currency per USD Thursday

Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377

Australia (Dollar) 0.7830 0.7836 1.2771 1.2762

Brazil (Real) 0.3735 0.3791 2.6774 2.6378

Britain (Pound) 1.9077 1.9135 0.5242 0.5226

1 Month Forward 1.9044 1.9101 0.5251 0.5235

3 Months Forward 1.8983 1.9038 0.5268 0.5253

6 Months Forward 1.8904 1.8959 0.5290 0.5275

Canada (Dollar) 0.8037 0.8068 1.2442 1.2395

1 Month Forward 0.8037 0.8069 1.2442 1.2393

3 Months Forward 0.8043 0.8074 1.2433 1.2385

6 Months Forward 0.8057 0.8088 1.2412 1.2364

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Spot Rate Quotations

Note that the direct quote is the reciprocal of the indirect quote:

5242.1

9077.1

CountryUSD equiv Friday

USD equiv Thursday

Currency per USD Friday

Currency per USD Thursday

Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377

Australia (Dollar) 0.7830 0.7836 1.2771 1.2762

Brazil (Real) 0.3735 0.3791 2.6774 2.6378

Britain (Pound) 1.9077 1.9135 0.5242 0.5226

1 Month Forward 1.9044 1.9101 0.5251 0.5235

3 Months Forward 1.8983 1.9038 0.5268 0.5253

6 Months Forward 1.8904 1.8959 0.5290 0.5275

Canada (Dollar) 0.8037 0.8068 1.2442 1.2395

1 Month Forward 0.8037 0.8069 1.2442 1.2393

3 Months Forward 0.8043 0.8074 1.2433 1.2385

6 Months Forward 0.8057 0.8088 1.2412 1.2364

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The Bid-Ask Spread

• The bid price is the price a dealer is willing to pay you for something.

• The ask price is the amount the dealer wants you to pay for the thing.

• The bid-ask spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices.

Page 18: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

The Bid-Ask Spread

• A dealer could offer – bid price of $1.25 per €– ask price of $1.26 per €– While there are a variety of ways to quote that,

• The bid-ask spread represents the dealer’s expected profit.

Page 19: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

The Bid-Ask Spread

• A dealer would likely quote these prices as 72-77.

• It is presumed that anyone trading $10m already knows the “big figure”.

Bid Ask

1.9072

.5242

S($/£)

S(£/$)

1.9077

.5243

big figure small figure

Page 20: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Spot FX trading

• In the interbank market, the standard size trade is about U.S. $10 million.

• A bank trading room is a noisy, active place.

• The stakes are high.

• The “long term” is about 10 minutes.

Page 21: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Cross Rates

• Suppose that S($/€) = 1.50– i.e. $1.50 = €1.00

• and that S(¥/€) = 50– i.e. €1.00 = ¥50

• What must the $/¥ cross rate be?

$1.50¥50=

$1.50 €1.00€1.00 ¥50×

$1.00 = ¥33.33$0.0300 = ¥1

Page 22: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Triangular Arbitrage

$

£¥

Credit Lyonnais

S(£/$)=1.50

Credit Agricole

S(¥/£)=85

Barclays

S(¥/$)=120

Suppose we observe these banks posting these exchange rates.

First calculate any implied cross rate to see if an arbitrage exists.

£1.00

¥80=

£1.50 $1.00

$1.00 ¥120×

Page 23: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Triangular Arbitrage

$

Credit Lyonnais

S(£/$)=1.50

Credit Agricole

S(¥/£)=85

Barclays

S(¥/$)=120

As easy as 1 – 2 – 3:

1. Sell our $ for £,

2. Sell our £ for ¥,

3. Sell those ¥ for $.

¥ £

1

2

3

$

Page 24: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Triangular Arbitrage

Sell $100,000 for £ at S(£/$) = 1.50

receive £150,000

Sell our £150,000 for ¥ at S(¥/£) = 85

receive ¥12,750,000

Sell ¥12,750,000 for $ at S(¥/$) = 120receive $106,250

profit per round trip = $106,250 – $100,000 = $6,250

Page 25: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Triangular Arbitrage

$

Credit Lyonnais

S(£/$)=1.50

Credit Agricole

S(¥/£)=85

Barclays

S(¥/$)=120

Here we have to go “clockwise” to make money—but it doesn’t matter where we start.

¥ £

1

2 3

$

If we went “counter clockwise” we would be the source of arbitrage profits, not the recipient!

Page 26: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Triangular Arbitrage• As a quick spot method for triangular arbitrage, write the three rates out with

a different denominator in each:– 1.3285 CHF / USD – 0.00851 USD / JPY– 88.20 JPY / CHF

• If there is parity:

– If this is greater, or less than, 1 an arbitrage opportunity exists.– An answer < 1 means that one of the component rates (fractions) is too low. An

answer > 1 mean that one of the rates is too high.– If the total is less than one, assume that any of the fractions is too low, e.g. CHF/USD.

This would imply that CHF is too low (overvalued vs USD) or USD is too high (undervalued vs CHF); this tells us to either buy the undervalued or sell the overvalued currency.

1CHFJPY

JPYUSD

USDCHF

Page 27: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

The Forward Market

• A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset in the future at prices agreed upon today.

Page 28: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Rate Quotations

• The forward market for FX involves agreements to buy and sell foreign currencies in the future at prices agreed upon today.

• Bank quotes for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month maturities are readily available for forward contracts.

• Non Deliverable Forwards

Page 29: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Rate Quotations

• Consider the example from above:

for British pounds, the spot rate is

$1.9077 = £1.00

While the 180-day forward rate is

$1.8904 = £1.00

• What’s up with that?

Page 30: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Clearly the market participants expect that the pound will be worth less in dollars in six months.

CountryUSD equiv Friday

USD equiv Thursday

Currency per USD Friday

Currency per USD Thursday

Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377

Australia (Dollar) 0.7830 0.7836 1.2771 1.2762

Brazil (Real) 0.3735 0.3791 2.6774 2.6378

Britain (Pound) 1.9077 1.9135 0.5242 0.5226

1 Month Forward 1.9044 1.9101 0.5251 0.5235

3 Months Forward 1.8983 1.9038 0.5268 0.5253

6 Months Forward 1.8904 1.8959 0.5290 0.5275

Canada (Dollar) 0.8037 0.8068 1.2442 1.2395

1 Month Forward 0.8037 0.8069 1.2442 1.2393

3 Months Forward 0.8043 0.8074 1.2433 1.2385

6 Months Forward 0.8057 0.8088 1.2412 1.2364

Page 31: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Rate Quotations

• Consider the (dollar) holding period return of a dollar-based investor who buys £1 million at the spot and sells them forward:

$HPR=gain

pain

$1,890,400 – $1,907,700

$1,907,700=

–$17,300

$1,907,700=

$HPR = –0.0091

Annualized dollar HPR = –1.81% = –0.91% × 2

Page 32: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Premium

• The interest rate differential implied by forward premium or discount.

• For example, suppose the € is appreciating from S($/€) = 1.25 to F180($/€) = 1.30

• The 180-day forward premium is given by:

= 0.08 1.30 – 1.25

1.25× 2=f180,€v$

F180($/€) – S($/€)

S($/€)= ×

360

180

Page 33: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Long and Short Forward Positions

• If you have agreed to sell anything (spot or forward), you are “short”.

• If you have agreed to buy anything (forward or spot), you are “long”.

• If you have agreed to sell FX forward, you are short.

• If you have agreed to buy FX forward, you are long.

Page 34: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

0 S180($/¥)

F180($/¥) = .009524

Short positionloss

profit If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later falls then you gain.

If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later rises then you lose.

Page 35: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

loss

0 S180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) = 105

-F180(¥/$)

profit

Whether the payoff profile slopes up or down depends upon whether you use the direct or indirect qu

ote:

F180(¥/$) = 105 or F

180($/¥) = .009524.

short position

Page 36: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

loss

0 S180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) = 105

-F180(¥/$)

When the short entered into this forward contract, he agreed to sell ¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105

profitshort position

Page 37: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

loss

0 S180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) = 105

-F180(¥/$)

120

If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the short will make a profit by buying ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105.

15¥

profitshort position

Page 38: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

loss

0 S180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) = 105

Long position-F180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) short positionprofit Since this is a zero-sum game, the long position p

ayoff is the opposite of the short.

Page 39: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Payoff Profiles

loss

0 S180(¥/$)

F180(¥/$) = 105

Long position

-F180(¥/$)profit The long in this forward contract agreed to BUY

¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105 If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the long will lose by having to buy ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and

delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105.

120

–15¥

Page 40: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity Defined

• IRP is an arbitrage condition.

• If IRP did not hold, then it would be possible for an astute trader to make unlimited amounts of money exploiting the arbitrage opportunity.

• Since we don’t typically observe persistent arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume that IRP holds.

Page 41: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity Carefully Defined

Consider alternative one year investments for $100,000:

1. Invest in the U.S. at i$. Future value = $100,000 × (1 + i$)

2. Trade your $ for £ at the spot rate, invest $100,000/S$/£ in Britain at i£ while eliminating any exchange rate risk by selling the future value of the British investment forward.

S$/£

F$/£Future value = $100,000(1 + i£)×

S$/£

F$/£(1 + i£) × = (1 + i$)

Since these investments have the same risk, they must have the same future value (otherwise an arbitrage would exist)

Page 42: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

IRP

Invest those pounds at i£

$1,000

S$/£

$1,000

Future Value =

Step 3: repatriate future value to the U.

S.A.

Since both of these investments have the same risk, they must have the same future value—otherwise an arbitrage would exist

Alternative 1: invest $1,000 at i$ $1,000×(1 + i$)

Alternative 2:Send your $ on a round trip to Britain Step 2:

$1,000

S$/£

(1+ i£) × F$/£

$1,000

S$/£

(1+ i£)

=

IRP

Page 43: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity Defined

• The scale of the project is unimportant

(1 + i$) F$/£

S$/£

× (1+ i£)=

$1,000×(1 + i$) $1,000

S$/£

(1+ i£) × F$/£=

Page 44: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity Defined

Formally,

IRP is sometimes approximated as

i$ – i¥ ≈S

F – S

1 + i$

1 + i¥ S$/¥

F$/¥=

Page 45: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Premium

• It’s just the interest rate differential implied by forward premium or discount.

• For example, suppose the € is appreciating from S($/€) = 1.25 to F180($/€) = 1.30

• The forward premium is given by:

F180($/€) – S($/€)

S($/€)×

360

180f180,€v$ = =

$1.30 – $1.25

$1.25× 2 = 0.08

Page 46: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity Carefully Defined

• Depending upon how you quote the exchange rate ($ per ¥ or ¥ per $) we have:

1 + i$

1 + i¥

S¥/$

F¥/$ =1 + i$

1 + i¥ S$/¥

F$/¥=or

…so be a bit careful about that

Page 47: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage

If IRP failed to hold, an arbitrage would exist. It’s easiest to see this in the form of an example.

Consider the following set of foreign and domestic interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates.Spot exchange rate S($/£) = $1.25/£

360-day forward rate F360($/£) = $1.20/£

U.S. discount rate i$ = 7.10%

British discount rate i£ = 11.56%

Page 48: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage

A trader with $1,000 could invest in the U.S. at 7.1%, in one year his investment will be worth

$1,071 = $1,000 (1+ i$) = $1,000 (1,071)

Alternatively, this trader could

1. Exchange $1,000 for £800 at the prevailing spot rate,

2. Invest £800 for one year at i£ = 11,56%; earn £892,48.

3. Translate £892,48 back into dollars at the forward rate F360($/£) = $1,20/£, the £892,48 will be exactly $1,071.

Page 49: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Arbitrage I

Invest £800 at i£ = 11.56%

$1,000

£800

£800 = $1,000×$1.25

£1

In one year £800 will be worth

£892.48 = £800 (1+ i£)

$1,071 = £892.48 ×£1

F£(360)

Step 3: repatriate to the U.S.A. at F360

($/£) = $1.20/£

Alternative 1: invest $1,000 at 7.1%FV = $1,071

Alternative 2:buy pounds

Step 2:

£892.48

$1,071

Page 50: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Interest Rate Parity & Exchange Rate Determination

According to IRP only one 360-day forward rate,

F360($/£), can exist. It must be the case that

F360($/£) = $1.20/£

Why?

If F360($/£) $1.20/£, an astute trader could make money with one of the following strategies:

Page 51: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Arbitrage Strategy I

If F360($/£) > $1.20/£

i. Borrow $1,000 at t = 0 at i$ = 7.1%.ii. Exchange $1,000 for £800 at the prevailing spot rate, (note that £800 = $1,000÷$1.25/£) invest £800 at 11.56% (i£) for one year to achieve £892.48iii. Translate £892.48 back into dollars, if

F360($/£) > $1.20/£, then £892.48 will be more than enough to repay your debt of $1,071.

Page 52: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Arbitrage I

Invest £800 at i£ = 11.56%

$1,000

£800

£800 = $1,000×$1.25

£1

In one year £800 will be worth

£892.48 = £800 (1+ i£)

$1,071 < £892.48 ×£1

F£(360)

Step 4: repatriate to the U.S.A.

If F£(360) > $1.20/£ , £892.48 will be more than enough to repay your dollar obligation of $1,071. The excess is your profit.

Step 1: borrow $1,000

Step 2:buy pounds

Step 3:

Step 5: Repay your dollar loan with $1,071.

£892.48

More than $1,071

Page 53: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Arbitrage Strategy II

If F360($/£) < $1.20/£

i. Borrow £800 at t = 0 at i£= 11.56% .

ii. Exchange £800 for $1,000 at the prevailing spot rate, invest $1,000 at 7.1% for one year to achieve $1,071.

iii. Translate $1,071 back into pounds, if

F360($/£) < $1.20/£, then $1,071 will be more than enough to repay your debt of £892.48.

Page 54: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Arbitrage II

$1,000

£800

$1,000 = £800×£1

$1.25

In one year $1,000 will be worth $1,071 > £892.48 ×

£1F£(360)

Step 4: repatriate to the U.K.

If F£(360) < $1.20/£ , $1,071 will be more than enough to repay your dollar obligation of £892.48. Keep the rest as profit.

Step 1: borrow £800

Step 2:buy dollars

Invest $1,000 at i$

Step 3:Step 5: Repay your pound loan with £892.48 .

$1,071

More than £892.48

Page 55: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

IRP and Hedging Currency Risk

You are a U.S. importer of British woolens and have just ordered next year’s inventory. Payment of £100M is due in one year.

IRP implies that there are two ways that you fix the cash outflow to a certain U.S. dollar amount:

a) Put yourself in a position that delivers £100M in one year—a long forward contract on the pound. You will pay (£100M)(1.2/£) = $120M in one year.

b) Form a forward market hedge as shown below.

Spot exchange rate S($/£) = $1.25/£

360-day forward rate F360($/£) = $1.20/£

U.S. discount rate i$ = 7.10%

British discount rate i£ = 11.56%

Page 56: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

IRP and a Forward Market Hedge

To form a forward market hedge:Borrow $112.05 million in the U.S. (in one year

you will owe $120 million).Translate $112.05 million into pounds at the sp

ot rate S($/£) = $1.25/£ to receive £89.64 million.

Invest £89.64 million in the UK at i£ = 11.56% for one year.

In one year your investment will be worth £100 million—exactly enough to pay your supplier.

Page 57: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forward Market Hedge

Where do the numbers come from? We owe our supplier £100 million in one year—so we know that we need to have an investment with a future value of £100 million. Since i£ = 11.56% we need to invest £89.64 million at the start of the year.

How many dollars will it take to acquire £89.64 million at the start of the year if S($/£) = $1.25/£?

£89.64 = £100

1.1156

$112.05 = £89.64 × $1.00

£1.25

Page 58: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Is the Forward Rate a good predictor of future spot?

• FORWARD RATES AS PREDICTORS OF FUTURE SPOT RATES

• 12 month forward rates from November ’05 to May ’06…

Page 59: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

• …and the spot rate 12 month’s later

Page 60: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forecasts

Page 61: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Forecasts

Page 62: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination

• The exchange rate between two currencies should equal the ratio of the countries’ price levels:

S($/£) = P£

P$

S($/£) = P£

P$£150

$300= = $2/£

For example, if an ounce of gold costs $300 in the U.S. and £150 in the U.K., then the price of one pound in terms of dollars should be:

Page 63: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

USD/JPY PPP

Page 64: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination

• Suppose the spot exchange rate is $1.25 = €1.00

• If the inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to be 3% in the next year and 5% in the euro zone,

• Then the expected exchange rate in one year should be $1.25×(1.03) = €1.00×(1.05)

F($/€) = $1.25×(1.03)€1.00×(1.05)

$1.23€1.00

=

Page 65: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination

• The euro will trade at a 1.90% discount in the forward market:

$1.25€1.00

= F($/€)S($/€)

$1.25×(1.03)€1.00×(1.05) 1.03

1.051 + $

1 + €

= =

Relative PPP states that the rate of change in the exchange rate is equal to differences in the rates of inflation—roughly 2%

Page 66: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity

• Notice that our two big equations today equal each other:

= = F($/€)S($/€)

1 + $

1 + €

PPP

1 + i€

1 + i$ =F($/€)S($/€)

IRP

Page 67: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Expected Rate of Change in Exchange Rate as Inflation Differential

• We could also reformulate our equations as inflation or interest rate differentials:

= F($/€) – S($/€)

S($/€)1 + $

1 + €

– 1 = 1 + $

1 + €

1 + €

1 + €

= F($/€)S($/€)

1 + $

1 + €

= F($/€) – S($/€)

S($/€)$ – €

1 + €

E(e) = ≈ $ – €

Page 68: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Expected Rate of Change in Exchange Rate as Interest Rate Differenti

al

= F($/€) – S($/€)

S($/€)i$ – i€

1 + i€E(e) = ≈ i$ – i€

Page 69: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Quick and Dirty Short Cut

• Given the difficulty in measuring expected inflation, managers often use

≈ i$ – i€$ – €

Page 70: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Currency Strategies

• Momentum trading seeks to take advance of market trends, purchasing currencies with the best recent performance and selling the weakest performers.

• Mean reversion strategies in are some ways the opposite of momentum strategies. It is based on the idea that currencies are prone to move too far too fast and then are reversed in part or in full.

• Carry trades seek to take advantage of interest rate differentials, selling low yielding currencies and buying higher yielding currencies.

Page 71: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Currency Swaps

• In a plain vanilla cross-currency swap transaction, one party typically holds one currency and desires a different currency.

• Each party will then pay interest on the currency it receives in the swap and the interest payment can be made at either a fixed or a floating rate.

• Contrary to the Interest Rate Swap there is an actual exchange of cash flow at initiation

• Frequent bond issuers often issue bonds in currencies demanded by investors.

Page 72: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Cross-Currency Swaps Positions

• Party A holds €• Party B holds $

• 4 Possibilities:– A pays fixed rate on $ received and B pays fixed rate

on € received.– A pays floating rate on $ received and B pays fixed rat

e on € received.– A pays fixed rate on $ received and B pays floating rat

e on € received.– A pays floating rate on $ received and B pays floating

rate on € received.

Page 73: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Example of a Currency Swap • Below are cash flows for £10m 4 year swap 5% fixed for fixed £ / $:• US Interest Rates: 10% UK Interest Rates 8% Party A holds £10m • From the perspective of A

Pays £10m

Contrary to IRS there is exchange of cash flows at initiation and termination

Receive $20m Receive £0.8m

Pay $2m

Receive £0.8m

Pay $2m

Receive £0.8m

Pay $2m

Receive £10.8m

Pay $22m

Termination date

Page 74: Lecture in International Finance Chinese University of Technology Foued Ayari, PhD.

Other Instruments in International Finance

• EUROCURRENCY MARKETS

• EUROBOND MARKETS