Lecture B Causal Loop Diagram

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    Simulation & Modeling

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Some of the materials in this slide are my summary from Principle of System by Jay W. Forrester,Productivity, 1971

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    OverviewReview

    ausa oop agramStep in developing CLDExamples

    Discussion

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    ObjectiveBy the end of this lesson you should be able to

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    1. Review Classification of SystemsSystem:

    pen sys em:Past action does not control future action

    r y :Past action controls future action

    Positive feedback loopNe ative feedback loo

    Depend on observers viewpoint

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    2. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)Cause and effect relationship between

    represented as a causal diagram

    Cause & effect: If A then B

    influences

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Feedback LoopIf A causes or affects B, then in many

    , .This circular causality is called feedbackoop

    Which one first, chicken or egg?

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)CLD is also called Influence diagram

    represen s e ee ac s ruc ure osystems

    Ca tureThe hypotheses about the causes ofdynamicsThe important of feedbacks

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    Critical AspectsThinking in terms of cause-and-effect

    Focusing on the feedback linkages among

    components of a system

    for defining what is to be included within

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    GuidelinesFocus on the relationship rather than the

    behavioree pa erns , no even s

    Use circular causality: in time , causality isseldom one way (after delay)

    Add olic variables

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Search for Feedback LoopThinking in terms of cause and effect is notenough

    ocean evaporation cloud rain ocean

    of causation ultimately to re-affect itself

    earc o en y c ose , causa ee ac oops

    exactly those that are enclosed within feedbackloop

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    CLD Examples

    Salary VS Performance Tired VS Sleep

    Salary PerformancePerformance Salary Tired sleepSleep tired

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Labeling Link Polarity

    Signing: Add a + or a sign at each

    + s use e cause ncrease, e e ec

    increases and if the cause decrease, the

    A - is used if the cause increases, the effectdecreases and if the cause decreases, thee ec ncreases

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Sign of Arrow HeadPositive sign indicate that higher the cause will producehigher effect, lower the cause will also lower the effect

    Negative sign in the arrow head means that higher the,

    will create higher effect

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Signing Arcs

    + +

    + -

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Determining Loop Polarity

    You can easily distinguish positive and

    multiplication of all arrow signs in the

    + + = +delay

    = +

    + =

    = delay

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Positive Feedback LoopHave an even number of signs

    Some quantity increase, a snowball effect takesover and that quantity continues to increase

    The snowball effect can also work in reverse

    Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation,and reinforce

    Notation: place symbol in the center of theloop

    +

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    Positive Feedback Loop

    ,

    +

    The more salary I get

    The better I perform

    e e er per orm

    The more salary I get

    +

    e more sa ary getThe better I perform +

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    The Arms RaceTwo countries situation

    Armation A+

    ee s en angereA feels endagered

    +rma on +

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    The result of the Arms Race

    Total Amount of

    race

    Time (years)

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    Start of an advertising warStarting point

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    The advertising warThe system structure causes its own

    +

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    Negative Feedback LoopHave an odd number of signs

    end to produce stable , balance , equilibrium and goal-seeking behavior over time

    Notation: place symbol in the center of the

    loop

    -

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Negative Feedback Loop

    Tired Sleep, Sleep Tired

    The more I sleep The less tired I am

    The more tired I am

    The more I sleep

    The less tired I am

    The less I sleep

    The less I sleep The more tired I am

    +

    -

    -

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Example Feedback loop

    Student Staff stress+numbers levels

    + Research papers

    publishedStudentrecruitment

    +

    Reputation +

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    A Balancing Loop

    Student Staff stress+numbers levels

    + Research papers

    publishedStudent recruitment

    +

    Reputation +

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    Behaviour over time

    Number of students

    time

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    Loop DominanceThere are systems which have more than one

    A particular loop in a system of more than oneloo is most res onsible for the overall behaviorof that system

    The dominating loop might shift over timeWhen a feedback loop is within another, one loopmust dominate

    Stable conditions will exist when negative loopsdominate positive loops

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    Combined Feedback LoopsPopulation Growth

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    Learn to forgetDynamics of organizational learning and

    K di T k PhD

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    4. More Complex Examples

    Self-Regulating Biosphere

    evaporation forms Nested Feedback Loops

    -

    ++-

    -

    +

    +

    + + -

    +

    +

    K di T k PhD

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Exogenous ItemsItems that affect other items in the system but

    system

    are no arrows drawn to these items

    +

    +-

    -

    Kardi Teknomo PhD

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    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

    Delays

    From the example below, once the trees are

    ,grow enough to harvest

    -

    Kardi Teknomo PhD

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    5. Case Study

    The following case study come from. .

    University of Klagenfurt, Austria

    Given the followin model what actiondo you think we can suggest?

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Heroin Market 1

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    ,

    Price Elasticity of Heroin

    Price Elasticity Heroin-m arketTsd ATS

    3000

    4000

    e r o

    i n

    1000

    2000

    i c e

    p e r

    k g

    H

    0

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    kg Heroin availabl e

    p r

    10 kg Heroin available: 1000 $/kg: 10 Revenue

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Heroin Market 2

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Lessons from the Heroin Models

    Causal Loo Dia rams CLD`s are useful tools!

    CLDs help to discuss a situation. Differentviewpoints can be clarified and checked more easily.The same situation can be modeled in different

    ways.CLDs allow a reflection of model assumptions.Small differences in a model might have serious

    consequences.What appears to be the solution at first sight,might (via feedback) make the problem even more

    severe!

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Summary

    CLD is a qualitative model

    Can explore unanticipated side-effects,

    flag up when these side-effects begin to

    without quantifying effects can be

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    6. Discussion Points

    Define from your system:

    Is it open or feedback system?

    How the variable influence other variable

    loopsPut link & loop polarity

    Guess the system dynamic qualitativebehavior

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Practice: Product Life Cycle

    Can you explain

    Kardi Teknomo, PhD

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    Practice: Housing Sector

    How many feedback loop?os ve or nega ve

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    Practice: Population SectorWhat is the sign

    mean?

    What is the sign

    of R B and B2?


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