Lecture 5 Newell 1999

8/13/2019 Lecture 5 Newell 1999

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THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS

AND ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGICALCHANGE

Richard G. Newell

Adam B. Jaffe

Robert N. Stavins

Working Paper 6437


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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS

AND ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGICAL

CHANGE

Richard G. NewellAdam B. Jaffe

Robert N. Stavins

Working Paper 6437

http://www.nber.org/papers/w6437

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

March 1998

This paper is based on Newells Ph.D. dissertation at Harvard University. We thank, without

implicating, Robert Deacon, William Hogan, Raymond Kopp, Albert Nichols, William Pizer, and

Martin Weitzman for useful comments. We also thank Suzanne Kim, Sandip Madhavareddy, and

Karthik Muralidharan for excellent research assistance. The research was supported by U.S.

Department of Energy award No. DE-FG02-95ERG2106, a Resources for the Future Joseph L.

Fisher Dissertation Award, and a John F. Kennedy School of Government Joseph Crump Fellowship.

Such support does not constitute an endorsement by those institutions or the National Bureau of

Economic Research of the views expressed in this paper.

1998 by Richard G. Newell, Adam B. Jaffe and Robert N. Stavins. All rights reserved. Short

sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided

that full credit, including notice, is given to the source.


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The Induced Innovation Hypothesis

and Energy-Saving Technological Change

Richard G. Newell, Adam B. Jaffe

and Robert N. Stavins

NBER Working Paper No. 6437

March 1998

ABSTRACT

It follows from Hicks induced innovation hypothesis that rising energy prices in the last two

decades should have induced energy-saving innovation. We formulate the hypothesis concretely

using a product-characteristics model of energy-using consumer durables, augmenting Hicks

hypothesis to allow for the possibility that government efficiency standards also induce innovation.

Through estimation of characteristics transformation surfaces, we find that technological change

reduced the total capital and operating costs of air conditioning by one-half and water heating by

about one-fifth. Although the rateof overall innovation in these products appears to be independent

of energy prices and regulations, the evidence suggests that the directionof innovation has been

responsive to energy price changes. In particular, energy price increases induced innovation in a

direction that lowered the capital cost tradeoffs inherent in producing more energy-efficient products.

In addition, energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that

were offered for sale. Our estimates indicate that about one-quarter to one-half of the improvements

in mean energy-efficiency of the menu of new models for these products over the last two decades

were associated with rising energy prices since 1973. We also find that this responsiveness to price

changes increased substantially after product labeling requirements came into effect, and that

minimum efficiency standards had a significant positive effect on average efficiency levels.

Nonetheless, a sizeable portion of efficiency improvements in these technologies appears to have been

autonomous.

Richard G. Newell Adam B. Jaffe

Resources for the Future Department of Economics

1616 P Street, NW Brandeis University

Washington, DC 20036 Waltham, MA 02254

and [email protected]

Robert N. Stavins

John F. Kennedy School of Government

Harvard University

79 JFK Street

Cambridge, MA 02138


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Lecture 5 Newell 1999

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