Lecture 16 Nonlinear Problems: Simulated Annealing and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals.

Lecture 16

Nonlinear Problems:

Simulated Annealing and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

SyllabusLecture 01 Describing Inverse ProblemsLecture 02 Probability and Measurement Error, Part 1Lecture 03 Probability and Measurement Error, Part 2 Lecture 04 The L2 Norm and Simple Least SquaresLecture 05 A Priori Information and Weighted Least SquaredLecture 06 Resolution and Generalized InversesLecture 07 Backus-Gilbert Inverse and the Trade Off of Resolution and VarianceLecture 08 The Principle of Maximum LikelihoodLecture 09 Inexact TheoriesLecture 10 Nonuniqueness and Localized AveragesLecture 11 Vector Spaces and Singular Value DecompositionLecture 12 Equality and Inequality ConstraintsLecture 13 L1 , L∞ Norm Problems and Linear ProgrammingLecture 14 Nonlinear Problems: Grid and Monte Carlo Searches Lecture 15 Nonlinear Problems: Newton’s Method Lecture 16 Nonlinear Problems: Simulated Annealing and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Lecture 17 Factor AnalysisLecture 18 Varimax Factors, Empircal Orthogonal FunctionsLecture 19 Backus-Gilbert Theory for Continuous Problems; Radon’s ProblemLecture 20 Linear Operators and Their AdjointsLecture 21 Fréchet DerivativesLecture 22 Exemplary Inverse Problems, incl. Filter DesignLecture 23 Exemplary Inverse Problems, incl. Earthquake LocationLecture 24 Exemplary Inverse Problems, incl. Vibrational Problems

Purpose of the Lecture

Introduce Simulated Annealing

Introduce the Bootstrap Methodfor computing Confidence Intervals

Part 1

Simulated Annealing

Monte Carlo Methodcompletely undirected

Newton’s Methodcompletely directed

Monte Carlo Methodcompletely undirected

Newton’s Methodcompletely directed

slow, but foolproof

fast, but can fall into local minimum

compromise

partially-directed random walk

m(p)

Ehigh EmediumElow

m(p)

Ehigh EmediumElowp(m*|m(p))

m(p)

Ehigh EmediumElow

m*

acceptance of m* as m(p+1) always accept in error is smaller

accept with probability

where T is a parameterif error is bigger

large T 1always accept m*

(undirected random walk)ignores the error completely

small T 0accept m* only when error is smaller

(directed random walk)strictly decreases the error

intermediate Tmost iterations decrease the error

but occasionally allow an m*that increases it

m(p)

Ehigh EmediumElow

large Tundirected random

walk

m(p)

Ehigh EmediumElow

small Tdirected random

walk

strategy

start off with large T

slowly decrease T during iterations

undirectedsimilar to Monte Carlo method

(except more “local”)

directedsimilar to Newton’s method

(except precise gradient direction not used)

strategy

start off with large T

slowly decrease T during iterations

claim is that this strategy helps achieve the global minimum

more random

more directed

analogous to annealing of metals

high temperatures

atoms randomly moving

about due to thermal motions

as temperature decreases

atoms slowly find themselves in a

minimum energy configuration

orderly arrangement of a “crystal” www.sti-laser.com/technology/heat_treatments.html

analogous to annealing of metals

high temperatures

atoms randomly moving

about due to thermal motions

as temperature decreases

atoms slowly find themselves in a

minimum energy configuration

orderly arrangement of a “crystal”hence “simulated annealing”and T called “temperature”

this is just Metroplois-Hastings

(way of producing realizations of a random variable)

applied to the p.d.f.

this is just Metroplois-Hastings

(way of producing realizations of a random variable)

applied to the p.d.f.

sampling a distribution that starts out wide and blurrybut sharpens up as T is decreases

0 100 200 300 4000

100

200

iteration

E

0 100 200 300 4001

2

3

iteration

m1

0 100 200 300 4000

1

2

iteration

m2

0 100 200 300 4000

10

20

iteration

T

0 100 200 300 4000

0.5

1

iteration

p 1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

2

4

x

d

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

m2

m1

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

(A)

(B)

(C)

for k = [1:Niter] T = 0.1 * Eg0 * ((Niter-k+1)/Niter)^2; ma(1) = random('Normal',mg(1),Dm); ma(2) = random('Normal',mg(2),Dm); da = sin(w0*ma(1)*x) + ma(1)*ma(2); Ea = (dobs-da)'*(dobs-da); if( Ea < Eg ) mg=ma; Eg=Ea; p1his(k+1)=1; else p1 = exp( -(Ea-Eg)/T ); p2 = random('unif',0,1); if( p1 > p2 ) mg=ma; Eg=Ea; end end

end

Part 2

Bootstrap Method

theory of confidence intervalserror is the data

result in

errors in the estimated model parameters

p(d) ddobsp(m) mmest

m(d)

theory of confidence intervalserror is the data

result in

errors in the estimated model parameters

p(d) d p(m) m95% confidence

m(d)2½% 2½% 2½% 2½%95% confidence

Gaussian linear theoryd = Gmm = G-gdstandard error propagation[cov m]=G-g [cov d] G-gT

univariate Gaussian distribution has95% of error within two σ of its mean

What to do withGaussian nonlinear theory?

One possibilitylinearize theory and use standard error

propagation

d = g(m) m-m(p) ≈ G(p) –g [d- g(m(p)) ][cov m]≈G(p)-g [cov d] G(p)-g

disadvantagesunknown accuracy

andneed to compute gradient of theory G(p)

G(p) not computed when using some solution methods

alternativeconfidence intervals with

repeat datasets

do the whole experiment many times

use results of each experiment to make compute mest

create histograms from many mest’s

derive empirical 95% confidence intervalsfrom histograms

Bootstrap Method

create approximate repeat datasetsby randomly resampling (with duplications)

the one existing data set

example of resampling

1.42.13.83.11.51.7

123456

313251

3.81.43.82.11.51.4

123456

original data set

random integers in range 1-6

resampled data set


1.42.13.83.11.51.7

123456

313251

3.81.43.82.11.51.4

123456

original data set


new data set


1.42.13.83.11.51.7

123456

313251

3.81.43.82.11.51.4

123456

original data set


resampled data set

note repeats

rowindex = unidrnd(N,N,1);xresampled = x( rowindex );dresampled = dobs( rowindex );

p(d) p’(d)

sampling

duplication

mixing

interpretation of resampling

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

m2

m1

50

100

150

200

1.19 1.195 1.2 1.205 1.21 1.2150

20

40

60

80

1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.60

2

4

6

8

(A) (B)

m1

m2

m1

m2p(m 2

)p(m 1

)

(C)

Nbins=50;m1hmin=min(m1save);m1hmax=max(m1save);Dm1bins = (m1hmax-m1hmin)/(Nbins-1);m1bins=m1hmin+Dm1bins*[0:Nbins-1]';m1hist = hist(m1save,m1bins);pm1 = m1hist/(Dm1bins*sum(m1hist));Pm1 = Dm1bins*cumsum(pm1);m1low=m1bins(find(Pm1>0.025,1));m1high=m1bins(find(Pm1>0.975,1));


histogram


empirical p.d.f.


empirical c.d.f.


95% confidence

bounds

Lecture 16 Nonlinear Problems: Simulated Annealing and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals.

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Transcript of Lecture 16 Nonlinear Problems: Simulated Annealing and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals.