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Transcript of Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007...
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
European property damage potentials: development and application of a simple
storm regression model to global and regional simulations
G.C. LeckebuschM. DonatU. Ulbrich FU Berlin
MSC Napoli
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Economic loss Insured loss
Economic and insured loss: Germany 1970 - 1998
Introduction: Storm damages in the past
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Economic and insured losses
Source: Münchener Rück, Jahresrückblick Naturkatastrophen 2004
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
1000 hPa Stormtrack (Winter)
Stormtrack is originally defined as bandpass (2.5-8 days) filtered standard deviation of the geopotential height in 500 hPa
Thus, the stormtrack reflects the variability caused by travelling extra-tropical cyclones and high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes
In this study we used the 1000 hPa level, due to data availability, for winter.
Data used: On IPCC AR4 Model Data Portal available 20 contributing models
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
1000 hPa Stormtrack (Winter)
Ulbrich et al., submitted to J. Clim.
20 IPCC GCMs
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
NCEP-Re
ECHAM4
HadAM3P ECHAM5
HadCM3
NCEP
Validation: Cyclone Track density; All systems
Units: Cyclone systems per winter
Winter: Oct.-Mar.
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
HadCM3 ECHAM4
HadAM3P ECHAM5
Validation: Cyclone Track density; 5% strongest systems
NCEP-Re
Units: Cyclone systems per winter
NCEP-Re
Strong: exceedance of the 95th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
A2 - Climate Change Signal: Cyclone Track density; All systems
ECHAM4
ECHAM5HadAM3P
HadCM3Coloured:
90/95/99th Significance Level
Dashed lines:negative changes
Solid lines:positivechanges
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
A2 - Climate Change: Track density; 5% strongest systems
HadCM3
HadAM3P ECHAM5
ECHAM4 Coloured:
90/95/99th Significance Level
Dashed lines:negative changes
Solid lines:positivechanges
Leckebusch & Ulbrich (2004) ; Leckebusch et al. (2006)
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
A2 - Climate Change: Number of systems: all vs. intense systems
Lambert & Fyfe (2006)
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
CWTs - Climate change signal A1B-20C winter (ONDJFM)
-10-8-6-4-20
246810
Z AZ NE E SE S SW W NW N undef. gale
Diffe
ren
ce
A1
B-2
0C
[%
]
CWTs ERA40 and 20C 1961-2000 winter (ONDJFM)
051015202530354045
Z AZ NE E SE S SW W NW N undef. gale
fre
qu
en
cy [%
]
Circulation Weather Types during winter (ONDJFM) in an ensemble of GCMs
recent climate:
climate change:(A1B)
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
05
10152025
Z AZ NE E SE S SW W NW N undef .
[day
s/ye
ar]
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Z AZ NE E SE S SW W NW N undef.
[day
s/ye
ar]
Circulation Weather Types on gale days(ONDJFM)
recent climate (20C):
climate change (A1B-20C):
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
98th percentile of daily max. wind speed (ONDJFM)
ERA40ECHAM5-OM1run1 (MPI-M)
ECHAM5-OM1(DMI)
EGMAM
20C
A1B-20C
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Storm (loss) days per winter
• 98th percentile typical threshold for loss damages
• Storm (loss) day if 98th percentile is exceeded in at least 20% of the investigation area (red box)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Z AZ NE E SE S SW W NW N undef. gale
[da
ys
/ye
ar]
20C
-2
02
46
810
12
Z NE SE SW NW undef.
[day
s/ye
ar]
A1B-20C (98th percentile not adapted)
-2
02
46
810
12
Z NE SE SW NW undef.
[da
ys/y
ea
r]
A1B-20C (98th percentile adapted)
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Model theory
• Loss depends on - local gust wind speed- insured property or amount of forest in the area
• insured property values can roughly be estimated from population density
• Loss increases with wind speed above a threshold.Different storm-loss functions have beenproposed, a frequent one is: loss ~ v3.
Estimation of future changes in climate extremes and their relation to property damage
Following the “multi model approach”direct use of GCM/RCM output in the impact model
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
This wind speed is approx. equal to the 98th percentile of wind speeds at regular (non-coastal, no mountain) stations in Germany
• Germany: Insurance companies pay when wind speeds exceed Bft 8 = 17.2 – 20.7 m/s
For property damages:
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Loss ≈
regions
year
days regionv
dayregionvregionpopc
3
98
max 1)(
),(*)(* for 98max vv
„normalized cubic wind“
3
98
98
v
vvfor 98vv
Approach based on:
Klawa, M. und U. Ulbrich, 2003:
A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 725-732.
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
2: GIS (ArcGIS) - including global population distribution data on 1x1 degree grid- including interpolation of forestry data to model grid via GIS
(at present: nearest neighbour)- Calculation of accumulated damage potential for different time
slices and/or regions
1: Calculation of „normalized cubic wind“ from input data (e.g. ERA40) per year
Model structure
3: Fitting the calculated values per year and region to observed losses
year
days regionv
dayregionv3
98
max 1)(
),(
What have we achieved so far?
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Application of loss model on climate simulations
Loss Ratio in ECHAM5/OM1, 20C, run 1
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Lo
ss R
atio
[‰
]
jährl. Werte Mittelw ert
Loss Ratio in ECHAM5/OM1, A1B, run 1
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
20
71
20
72
20
73
20
74
20
75
20
76
20
77
20
78
20
79
20
80
20
81
20
82
20
83
20
84
20
85
20
86
20
87
20
88
20
89
20
90
20
91
20
92
20
93
20
94
20
95
20
96
20
97
20
98
20
99
21
00
Loss
Rat
io [
‰]
jährl. Werte Mittelwert
ERA 40
(1971-2000)
EH5/OM1, 20C
(1971-2000)
EH5/OM1, A1B
(2071-2100)
Mean value 0,1395 0,1284 0,1507
Std. deviation 0,0894 0,0707 0,1494
+ 17 % + ~110 %
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Loss ratio: Control Climate
Leckebusch et al., 2007, GRL
ACC signal (A2):
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Model improvements in ENSEMBLES
c165/166 c49
1970-2000 0,78 0,83
Correlation with insurance data (GdV):
Loss Ratio based on momentary wind values vs. daily maximum gust from ERA40
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
0,500
0,600
0,700
los
s r
ati
on
[‰
]
GdV c165/166 c49
Input parameter: Wind gusts (Forecasts!)
Overestimation in 1993Underestimation in 1990
Further investigation with respect to the kind
of exceedance
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
• 1993 more weak events than 1990• 1990 more extreme exceedances of 98th Percentile than 1993
Approach 2 („dynamic“):Loss limit individually adjusted after loss events
Approach 1 („static“):Loss limit consistently increased
GERMANY: Exceedance of 98th Percentile (1971-2000) in ERA40
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
„dynamic approach“Schadensatz [0,01€ pro 1000€] auf Basis von P98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
GdV P98_c49_jahr P98_c49_winter P98_0.1v_d500 P98_0.1v_d500_ES P98_0.1v_d1000 P98_0.1v_d1500
P98_jahr P98_winter 0.1v_d500 0.1v_d1000 0.1v_d1500
1970-1999 0,83 0,90 0,877 0,883 0,878
Correlation with real damage data (GdV)
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
98th percentile of maximum wind speed (ONDJFM)ERA40
Regional Climate Model analysis:
Max of 4 gust forecast
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
98th percentile of maximum wind speed (ONDJFM)RCMs forced by ERA40
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
GdV ERA40
code 49
ERA40
MaxOf4
ETHZ-CLM
CNRM-RM4.5
MPI-M-REMO
KNMI-RACMO2
CHMI-ALADIN
DMI-HIRHAM
SMHI-RCA
Korrelation mit GdV (1970-2000) 0,89 0,86 0,82 0,79 0,73 0,76 0,75 0,78 0,64
Korrelation mit ERA40 code49 0,97 0,88 0,72 0,82 0,83 0,70 0,86 0,80
Korrelation mit ERA40 MO4 0,80 0,62 0,69 0,79 0,71 0,82 0,79
Mittelwert 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,14 0,15 0,16 0,14 0,16 0,15
Standardabweichung 0,12 0,12 0,11 0,07 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,08
Loss Ratios, RCMs (ERA40-driven) wssmax
0,000
0,100
0,200
0,300
0,400
0,500
0,600
0,700
0,800
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
GdV ERA40_code49 ERA40_MaxOf4 ETHZ-CLM_wssm ax CNRM-RM4.5_wssm ax MPI-M-REMO_wssm ax KNMI-RACMO2_wssm ax
CHMI-ALADIN_wssm ax DMI-HIRHAM_wssm ax SMHI-RCA_wssm ax
Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials
RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007
Availability of data from RT2A: Milestones M2A.2.2/M2A.2.3 “Provision of Stream One simulations [...] on servers or on request” (due in August 2006) seems NOT fulfilled adequately yet and leads to a delay in further analysis, as even on request data availability seems poor (see table).Availability of GCM data:
HadGem1 (METO-HC)
Requested, but not made available yet
IPSL-CM4 (IPSL) Available at PCMDI (IPCC AR4)*
ECHAM5/MPI-OM (MPIMET) Available via CERA / on request
ECHAM5/MPI-OM (DMI) Available on request
EGMAM (FUB) Available on request
CNRM-CM3 Available at PCMDI (IPCC AR4)*
ARPEGE-MICOM-OASIS (NERSC) Requested, but not made available yet
* Output of IPCC AR4 runs at PCMDI is onlay available in a daily resolution (daily mean values). For some analysis we plan to do, 6-hourly values are required. Thus, model output from PCMDI archive is only partly suitable for our analysis in ENSEMBLES.
Data problem: (March 2007)