Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA...

29
1 © NOKIA Leading The Way With CDMA Adam Gould CTO, CDMA VP Technology Management and Strategy Nokia Mobile Phones Business Group 27 May 2004

Transcript of Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA...

Page 1: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

1 © NOKIA

Leading The WayWith CDMA

Adam GouldCTO, CDMA

VP Technology Management and StrategyNokia Mobile Phones Business Group

27 May 2004

Page 2: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

2 © NOKIA

Agenda

• CDMA Market Outlook

• CDMA Technology Evolution

• Nokia in CDMA

• Summary

Page 3: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

3 © NOKIA

CDMA Market Outlook

Page 4: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

4 © NOKIA Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia.

Worldwide CDMA subscriptions passed the 200m milestone in 1Q04

North America83,000,000

Subscriptions at the end of March 2004

Caribbean & Latin America

30,000,000

Asia-Pacific85,000,000

Europe & Russia

Africa & Middle East

3,000,000

Page 5: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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Global CDMA subscription base projected to increase steadily during the next 5 years

0

100

200

300

400

500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GlobalEurope & AfricaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaChinaAPAC

Source: Nokia, March 2004

Cumulative CDMA subscriptions (EOY, millions)

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N. America CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 83mVerizon, US 37m 45%Sprint, US 18m 22%Alltel, US 7m 9%Bell Canada, CA 3m 4%

LSA CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 32mVivo, BR 15m 45%Telcel, VE 3m 8%Telefonica, MX 2m 7%Unefon, MX 1m 4%Iusacell, MX 1m 3%

China CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 22mChina Unicom 22m 100%

Source: Nokia, May 2004

GLOBAL CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 202mVerizon 37m 18%China Unicom 22m 11%SK Telecom 18m9%Sprint 18m9%KDDI 17m8% Japan CDMA

1Q04Subscriptions 17mKDDI 17m 100%

Korea CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 35mSK Telecom 18m 53%KT Freetel 11m 32%LG Telecom 5m 15%Rest of APAC

CDMA1Q04

Subscriptions 11mReliance, IN 6m 57%Tata, IN 1m 7%Hutchison/CAT, TH 1m 5%

LSA CDMA Almost 2nd Largest Region

(Percentages indicate the operators’s share of global / regional CDMA subs base)

Page 7: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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8 of CDMA’s Largest Operators in LSA

Source: Nokia, May 2004

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Top 10 - average subs base 15m no 11-20 – average subs base 1.5m Rest – fragmented

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Page 8: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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Brazil• Current state:• 15m CDMA subscriptions • AMPS still required

• Key trends going forward:• Services uptake high

• MMS now launched• WAP evolution continues

• Consolidation effect positive• New Brand (Vivo) • Unified services• National programs

• Penetration growth at low- end• Growth elsewhere in LTA as

well

Page 9: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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CDMA Market Outlook 2004

• CDMA will continue to gain global share, growing faster than total

• Global CDMA market volume is expected to increase by>20% YoY in 2004.

• Growth is fuelled by:• Rapid subscriber up-take in developing markets

(China, India, Brazil) • Increasing renewal rates in the more mature,

developed economies.

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10 © NOKIA

Evolution of CDMA

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Explosion of Technologies in CDMA

• Air Interface Evolution

• VMR

• H.264 Advanced Video Codec

• IPv6

• IMS

• Java

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Evolution to High Speed Data Standards

1995 200420031999 2000 2001 20021998

IS-95A- 1st Step- 14.4kbps CS

IS-95B- 64kbps- Improved SHO

cdma2000Revision 0

- 2x Voice Capacity- 153kbps PS

IS-8561xEV-DO- No Voice- 2.4Mbps FL- 153 Kbps RL

cdma2000Revision A- Simultaneus Voice

and Data- 307kbps PS

cdma2000Revision B- Minor changes

CDMA2000Revision C

- Voice and Data-3.1 Mbps FL-307 kbps RL

CDMA2000Revision D

- 3.1 Mbps FL - 1.8 Mbps

1xEV-DV

IS-8561xEV-DO

Revision A- 3.1 Mbps FL- 1.8 Mbps RL

Page 13: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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LSA Data Deployment Competitiveness

20042003 2005 2006

GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA

1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A

IS-2000 Rev 0 DV Rev C DV Rev D

GSM

IS-856

IS-2000

CDMA Has a Highly Competitive Evolution Path!

Page 14: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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What’s Next for CDMA Air Interface Standards?

P-P VoIP on DV and DO

Smart Antennas

Higher speed FL

4G

Capacity Enhancements

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Evolution of Voice Services in CDMA

IS-96A1993

Increasing Data Rate

Incr

easi

ng

Qu

alit

y

SMV2001

EVRC1995

QCELP131994

Paradigm ShiftParadigm Shift

Quality QuestQuality Quest

Capacity QuestCapacity Quest

VMR-WB2003

Wideband speech coding offers a

quantum leap in quality

Wideband speech coding offers a

quantum leap in quality

Page 16: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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VMR-WB at GlanceVariable Multirate Wideband Codec

A paradigm shift in voice and audio quality

1st globally interoperable codec

Able to trade off quality with capacity

Works both in VoIP& circuit-switched

Extendable to

music

Page 17: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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H.264 Advanced Video Codec (AVC)The new joint ITU/MPEG-4 video coding standard

Optimal video experience over 1x

Superior Performance

2x Network Capacity

½ the storage,

handset and server

Robust in wireless error environments

Globally Interoperable

Video Call rates 2-3x HQ

voice calls

Page 18: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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IPv6 technology enablesnew mobile services

PresencePresenceMobilityMobility

Push servicesPush servicesPeer-to-peer services

Network Gaming

Peer-to-peer services

Network Gaming

Always On

Global Reachability

Seamless Mobility

Page 19: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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IP Multimedia SubsystemIMS

ControlServer

SubscriberServices DB

Application Servers (Operator & 3rd Party)

PresenceServer

LocationServer

MessagingServer

GroupServer

PTTServer

…Server

GamingServer

IMS is a standardized SIP-based framework for IP communications

• Terminal-to-terminal connections for all types of IP-based services

• Across operator networks

• Independent of the access technology

Invite player

Peter: 00:00:00Thomas: 00:00:00

Chat> Peter: hey, look what just passed by! Push to

Stream

Quit

Streaming video from Bill:Streaming video from Bill:Streaming video from Bill:

Streamingvideo

Game data

IP ConnectionIMS Supports Multiple Packet

Core Networks(1x, GPRS…)

IP

SIPSIP

SIP

IMS Supports Multiple Radio Access Networks(1x, GSM, WCDMA…)

The IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) provides centralized registration, session control and charging mechanisms for operators and application developers.

Page 20: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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IPv6, VoIP and IMS services• VoIP and real time IMS services

• Require always-on data connections with mobility.• With Mobile IPv4, VoIP quality falls dramatically during

handoffs due to triangle routing

• IPv6 and Mobile IPv6 solve this problem• Mobile IPv6 supports route optimization – reduces round-

trip time.• Fast handoffs reduce context transfer delays.• Allows seamless inter-access technology handoffs of VoIP

and data sessions – e.g. WLAN to CDMA

IPv6, Mobile IPv6 and Fast handoffs are necessary for VoIPservices

Page 21: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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Java™ is the leading mobile application development environment

• Over 85 mobile operators worldwide have deployed Java™ download services* (December 2003)

• Over 200 million Java™ enabled handsets on market already by beginning 2004*

• Over 200 Java™ handset models by 27 mobile device vendors already on the market*

• Over 3 million Java developers worldwide*

Global mobile downloads: €2.7 Billion in 20032003: ~10 Million Java downloads globally / month **2004: ~15 Million Java downloads globally / month **

Source: * Sun Microsystems ** Nokia estimate

3936

10

Americas

8

APAC & China

17 14

EMEA

Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03

Page 22: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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But Growth in CDMA Still Needs…

Reduction of Fragmentation• Adding Cost• Fewer phone models

Interoperability• Within CDMA• Between CDMA and GSM

Roaming• No technical issues

Competition with GSM Demands

These Steps

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Nokia in CDMA

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Nokia – Committed to Lead with CDMA

• 13 year history of dedicated CDMA research

• Over 40 million CDMA handsets and over 35 models produced

• Leading edge chipset development

• Pioneering development in next generation technologies

• Major standards influencer and contributor

• Leading role in shaping the direction of the CDMA industry

Page 25: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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Pace Continuously Increasing:Customer Base Expansion in 2003

In 2003, Nokia sold

CDMA phones to

65 operatorsin 25

countries

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Well performing

CDMA engine

1x, GPS and Phone category expansion

High-end / Symbian

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Nokia Product Range Expansion

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Nokia’s First’s in CDMA Technology

World’s First 1xEV-DV High-Speed Data Call

World’s First Dual-Stack IPv6/IPv4 CDMA handset

Variable Rate Multimode Wideband Speech Codec

H.264 Advanced Video Codec

CDMA-GSM MMS Connectivity

IMS in CDMA

TI/ST Chipset Alternative

Many more to come!

Page 28: Leading The Way With CDMA Gould.pdf · Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. Worldwide CDMA subscriptions ... GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A IS-2000 Rev 0

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Summary

CDMA is a big business

And an even bigger opportunity!

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29 © NOKIA