Leading Acquisition Series: Leading in Permanent Whitewater
Transcript of Leading Acquisition Series: Leading in Permanent Whitewater
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Leading Acquisition Series: Leading in Permanent WhitewaterSteve Firestone, Ph. D.Defense Systems Management CollegeDAUNovember 4, 2020
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• Steve Firestone, Ph. D.• Intermittent Professor – DAU, ALD instructor• Associate Professor/Director of M.A. in Organizational
Leadership Program – Regent University• Retired Naval Aviator – C130s, SH60Bs, T34s• U.S. Fleet Forces Command (USFF)• Joint Forces Staff College (JFSC)
• My experience in permanent whitewater• Naval Aviation and USFF • Crisis Action Team Lead• Personal life
Today’s Presenter
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VUCA Defined
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Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous
The environment requires you to react quickly and adaptively to ongoing changes that are unpredictable and out of your control
Not enough information; the environment demands that you take action without certainty
The environment is dynamic with many interdependencies, not all of which may be known; cause and effect are frequently not obvious, multiple causes are in play
The environment is unfamiliar and outside of your and other’s experience
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Introduction
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“The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”
~ Alvin Toffler
Source: Alvin Toffler (1984). Future Shock Bantam Books
Your ability to adapt to the VUCA world is what will make a crucial difference to
where you find yourself, even just five years from now
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Objectives
• Define the concepts of permanent whitewater and VUCA• Describe the VUCA environment• Discuss ways to navigate the VUCA environment• Determine new strengths needed to succeed in a VUCA world• Present a tool for you to use to succeed in this era of permanent
whitewater/VUCA
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Desired Work and Life Environment
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While we would like things to be calm and predictable . . .
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Actual Work and Life Environment
Instead of calmness,
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we get whitewater
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Poll 1
• Which slide do you think represents your life better?
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A B
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Poll 2
• Which slide do you think represents your work better?
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A B
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Permanent Whitewater
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Question 1
• Can you think of examples of VUCA in the world around us (i.e. world and national events)?
• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous
• Please type them in the chat window.
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Why VUCA is Important to the Acquisition Community
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Question 2
• Can you think of examples of VUCA in your organization?
• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous
• Please type them in the chat window.
• Did any of these overlap with the example(s) you thought of in the previous question on VUCA in the world?
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Historical Perspective
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+
-
Rate
of C
hang
e
Time
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. So, we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st Century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”
~Ray Kurzweil
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The Changing Workplace
• Large scale changes that have occurred throughout time have impacted everyone in the organization:
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Industrial Age
Workers are cogs in a lineSystematic
Task FocusedLeader plans/ thinks;
workers do
Information Age
Information = PowerTeam focused
Authority still lies with the “leader”
Knowledge Age
Ideas = PowerInnovation focused
CollaborationInformation and
leadership are shared
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The World Today vs. Yesterday
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Permanent Whitewater• VUCA = Permanent Whitewater• Calm water is a thing of the past• Leaders must adapt
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VUCA in Defense Acquisition
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Factors driving VUCA in Defense
Acquisition
Technology:• Disruptive change• Breakthrough
innovation• Artificial
intelligence• 3D printing• IoT (Internet of
Things)
Policies/procedures:• Section 809• Middle tier of acquisition• Other transaction
authority• Rapid prototyping/fielding
of capability to warfighter• Back to Basics
Environment:• Natural disasters• Climate change
National Defense:• New patterns of
world conflict• Dysfunction of
national governments• Supply chain
globalization and interdependence
• Scarcity of rare earth minerals
• Depletion of home-grown STEM resources
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• VUCA can best be described as four different environments in a matrix with two dimensions:
1. How much do you know about the situation?2. How much can you predict the results of your actions?
The VUCA Environment
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How
wel
l can
you
pre
dict
the
resu
lts o
f you
r act
ions
?
How much do you know about the situation? +
+
- -
volatilityExample: Prices fluctuate in your supply chain after a natural disaster impacts one of your suppliers
uncertaintyExample: A new vendor’s product launch muddies the future of the vendors you use on your program and the market in general
complexityExample: You are working foreign military sales with many countries, all with unique regulatory environments, tariffs, and cultures
ambiguityExample: You decide to use an immature technology on your program to speed up delivery to the warfighter
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Question 3
• What are some ways you can better operate and lead in the VUCA environment?
• Please type your examples in the chat window.
• Listen Well• Think Divergently• Celebrate Success
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Leadership Challenges in a VUCA World
• Only 18% of leaders are “very capable” of leading in a VUCA world*
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*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board
‒ Anticipating and reacting to the nature and speed of change
‒ Acting decisively without always having clear direction and certainty
‒ Navigating through complexity, chaos, and confusion
‒ Maintaining effectivenessdespite constant surprises and a lack of predictability
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Challenges in a VUCA World
• Percent of HR professionals who report leaders are incapable of meeting the challenges of:
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‒ Volatility – 40%*‒ Uncertainty – 35%*‒ Complexity – 36%*‒ Ambiguity – 31%*
*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board
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Volatility Challenges• Volatility - exponential increase in the type, speed, volume, and scale
of change• Challenges you might face in a volatile environment:
• Pace of change is faster than our ability to respond• Pace of change requires accelerated decision-making• Change is large-scale, occurs suddenly, requiring an urgent response• Constant feeling of being overwhelmed, stressed, anxious, and unprepared• VUCA and hierarchical command and control structures do not work well together
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Uncertainty Challenges
• Uncertainty - lack of predictability with issues and events
• Challenges you might face in an uncertain environment:
• Inability to clearly understand a situation• Insufficient information• Too much information• Failure to understand the outcome of
events
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Complexity Challenges• Complexity - confounding of issues and the associated chaos that ensues• Challenges you might face in a complex environment:
• Mandates or pressure from above
• Problems are complex and interdependent
• Doing more with less• Conflicting expectations• No time for reflection
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Ambiguity Challenges• Ambiguity - mixed meanings surrounding conditions and causes of the who,
what, when, where, how, and why behind the things that are happening that are unclear, and hard to ascertain
• Challenges you might face in an ambiguous environment:• Failure to understand the significance of an event• High risk of misinterpreting events and responding inappropriately• Being too far removed
from the source and context of the events
• Having to act based on limited understanding
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Navigating VUCA
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Build the skills to be on top of your game, be in great condition, and have high energy levels
Volatility
Vision • Relentlessly communicate
your vision and lead people towards it
• Believe in yourself and others
• Ensure your team’s efforts are aligned and focused on the right areas
Uncertainty
Understanding• Ask questions that challenge
the status quo• Collaborate widely and
encourage multiple perspectives
• Be empathetic, get where people are coming from–their hopes, fears, and desires
• Explore new ideas, reflect, seek constructive criticism
Complexity
Clarity• Continuously focus on
desired outcomes• Be aware of the limits
imposed on you by old, comfortable ways of thinking
• Use your intuition, trust your gut, and your experience
• Approach problems from a systems thinking perspective
Ambiguity
Agility• Adapt quickly to changing
circumstances and make decisions with confidence
• Fail fast and learn from your mistakes
• Value social networks as well as hierarchy
• Set people free to do great work
• Know your limits, be comfortable that you just don’t know
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Poll 3
• Which one of the four environments of VUCA are you the least comfortable with?
VolatilityUncertaintyComplexityAmbiguity
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The VUCA Paradox
• We cannot perfectly predict the future.
• But we need to be able to make sense of and understand the future in order to help our organizations to thrive in this VUCA world.
• As shown earlier there is a tool to help you succeed in the VUCA environment.
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Volatility Vision
Uncertainty Understanding
Complexity Clarity
Ambiguity Agility
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Closing Thoughts/Questions?
• How can you use this understanding of VUCA and the tools presented to deal with permanent whitewater in your role in the acquisition community?
• This webcast was based on a class in our Acquisition Leadership Development (ALD) program.
• Any Questions?• Please reach out to me with
any other questions.• [email protected]
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