Lead Toxicity & Climate Change Taylor, O’Brien, Smith (GLASS, Australia) & Thuppil (NRCLPI, India)
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Transcript of Lead Toxicity & Climate Change Taylor, O’Brien, Smith (GLASS, Australia) & Thuppil (NRCLPI, India)
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Global Warming & Climate Variability (GW&CV)
• 1.1° to 6.4° increase in temperatures predicted during the 21st century
• Cuts designed to allow a 50% chance of temperature rise of ≤ 2°C
• 25-40% GHG emission cut by developed nations by 2020 • Developing nations must peak GHG emissions before 2020• ≥50% greenhouse emission cut relative to 1990 required by
2050• With a 2°C increase:
– Disappearance of mountain glaciers– Damage to coral ecosystems– Severe impact on the Sahel– Thawing of arctic including Greenland
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Projected GHG Cuts
Emissions reduction rates to stay within a 2ºC increase.
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Health Impacts
• Lead replaces minerals (notably iron and calcium) within the body. Prevents haemoglobin formation in red blood cells producing anaemia
• 10µg/dL decreases kids IQ by 7.4 pts compared to 1µg/dL so this is aptly called “The Age of Stupid”
• 2µg/dL of lead in the blood increases risk of early death• WHO considers <10µg/dL an adequate goal;
researchers calling on WHO to halve that level • The LEAD Group says reduce goal to <2µg/dL • >50% of people alive today have probably had a Blood
lead above 10µg/dL• We would all be smarter and live longer were it not for
lead
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Cumulative Lead ProductionCumulative Lead Mine Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5000 4000 3000 2500 1500 500Years ago
pro
duction o
f le
ad
(106 m
etr
ic tons)
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead is in Everything & Everyone
• 2.5bn have no regulation of lead in house-paint• Lead petrol not yet banned in 14 countries• Savings following US ban: $110-319 bn • Karachi (2002) 80.5% of kids >10µg/dL• 5 Indian cities (2005) kids ave. 12.1µg/dL• >33% kids in China >10µg/dL (2004)• Lead is in unleaded petrol, diesel, coal, biomass,
dung, computers, solar panels...
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: The Gain leads to Loss etc GRID
The Gain leads to Loss, or
Win leads to Lose
GRID
Pb mgt GainGain GW&CV
Quadrant 1.
Gain->Gain
GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt
Pb mgt GainLoss GW&CV
Quadrant 2.
Gain->Loss
GW&CV GainLoss Pb mgt
Pb mgt LossGain GW&CV
Quadrant 3.
Loss->Gain
GW&CV LossGain Pb mgt
Pb mgt LossLoss GW&CV
Quadrant 4.
Loss->Loss
GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Climate Outcomes
• China, India and USA have rejected recommended targets
• Therefore locks in minimum 3°C increase – Stern/Garnaut max. target
• Declining crop yields, aridity, food shortage Africa & W. Asia
• 30% run-off decline Mediterranean and S. Africa / Amazon rainforest shrinks / US hurricane bill doubles
• Sahara greens but W African monsoon ceases / Boreal forest dieback / El Niňo intensifies
[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Real Cuts Required
• Realized temperature rise (0.6ºC) one quarter of real rise (2.4ºC)
• Remainder negated by pollution (notably SO2) or stored in oceans
• 2ºC realized by 2050 if all emissions reduced by 70%
• Coal fired power, sea transport & agriculture not included in cuts
• Real cuts required: 44-65% by 2020, >78% by 2050 for 3°C rise
[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change:Precipitation Predictions by Region
• Increasingly Intense Precipitation: N America, Europe, N Asia, SE Asia, Australia, Oceania, E Africa, W India, central western South America
• Arid Lowlands with Rivers Fed from Warming Rain Soaked Mountains:Central Asia
• Increasingly Arid: southern USA, Central America, Mediterranean, W Asia, southern Africa, south and western Australia, Chile
• Arid with Intense Precipitation: southern and western Australia, the south-western USA, and the northern Mediterranean
[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Dust & Aridity
• 50% of children’s seasonal blood lead variations are due to warmer weather
• Soil serves as sink for lead from gasoline (tetraethyl lead)
• 50% fine particulate pollution in soil when conditions arid
• Half of household dust from external sources• Cavity dust major source of significant lead
[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 2008
[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 50 years
[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 20 Years
[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Carbon Combustion Power
• Coal fired power can provide >12-45% of lead emissions• Over 17m tons of lead deposited in fly ash in US 2000-
2006• Coal emissions 41% of CO2 (2005) but 77% of SO2
(2000)• Overall impact on warming neutral or negative, little
black carbon• Natural gas moderate CO2, little SO2 or Pb; large
fugitive emissions• Oil high CO2, significant black carbon, SO2 & Pb• Biomass combustion produces black carbon & Pb
[GW&CV Loss Pb mgt Loss– Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Other Power
• Nuclear reactors: Produce little GHG , no lead emissions• Lead disbursal or deposition during an accident potentially
massive• Hydroelectricity largest renewable segment; produces methane• Geothermal little GHG or Pb; limited by sites, little expansion• Wind, solar and other intermittent renewable: little GHG but
requires electricity co-generation• Lead impact of intermittent renewables predominantly electricity
storage need at local level
[Pb mgt Loss GW&CV Gain– Quadrant 3 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Static Power Storage
• 15% of new lead acid batteries (1100 tons of lead) deployed statically
• In Africa and Asia car batteries are used to store electrical power
• Each computer in developing world causes 0.9-1.6 Kg of lead waste
• US batteries 99.8% recycled: Uganda (2000) 10% recycled.
[Pb mgt Loss GW&CV Neutral– Center of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Transport
• 14% of GHG emissions: Vehicles 76%, sea 10%, air 12% • Road transport: 5-8% of European lead emissions• Almost half of GHG emissions from cars, light vehicles, 2-
3 wheelers• Sea transport short term greenhouse inhibitor due to SO2• Air travel IPCC estimates real impact 2-4 times it GHG
emissions• Avgas (propeller aircraft fuel) leaded; nearly a third of US
air lead emissions
[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Vehicle Population Growth
[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the Grid]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Vehicle Emissions Growth
[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the Grid]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Rural Impacts & Power Transformation
• 18 % of GHG emissions from burning forest for farmland• Biomass combustion (farm or domestic) produces lead
emissions • Europe c10% renewable obtains 55.1% of electricity
from carbon• Lead emissions eliminated by switch from coal to
nuclear• Nuclear power plant takes 7-15 years to build: too late
for 2020
[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Rising Lead Production
World production and consumption of lead 1962-2007
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
Year
Kil
oto
ns
of
lead
Production Mine
Production Primary
Production Secondary
Production Total ofrefined lead
Consumption
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Australian Pb Ore Grades Declining:
Lead Waste Increasing[GW&CV GainLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]
0
16
32
48
64
80
1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Ore
Gra
de -
Lead
(%P
b)
Ore Grade (%Pb)
Ore Grade (%Pb) - Northampton WA Only
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: Greenhouse Management
• Taxation of hydrocarbons used in transportation; abandon biofuels
• Tougher diesel standards to restrict black carbon emissions• Reducing biomass combustion for farming/domestic
purposes• Adding insulation to houses while removing ceiling dust• Price incentives to industries to reduce GHG emissions• Funding for biosequestration programs rather than
geosequestration• Lower priority: Reducing carbon combustion for electricity
[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: Lead Management
• Biosequestration or chemical stabilization of lead waste• Tax on lead mining at the mine to encourage recycling• Tax new vehicles & reduce numbers of vehicles being
made, by providing public transport, bikeways, walkways & incentives to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT)
• Enhance lead recycling, battery deposit or repurchase and convert small-scale lead battery works into collection points, and ensure all batteries are recycled at large-scale facilities covered by OH&S and Environmental Controls
• Ban leaded AvGas globally
[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]
Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: A Smarter World
• Laws to prevent lead diversion from lead acid batteries to unregulated uses
• Regulation of combustion of materials that may contain lead
• Education & nutritional supplements, veganism • Decrease all fuel burning by localising all production,
encouraging urban gardens, decreasing manufacturing & ending the era of consumerism & long-haul transport
• Prevention of lead poisoning in every way we can, will promote the Age of Reason necessary to mitigate and adjust to climate change
[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]
Thankyou!The End
See the slide show at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/index.htm & the speech at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/textspeech.htm For all references & graphics permissions see the paper at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/Conf_Paper.pdf
Co-author Elizabeth O’Brien (left) asks each person who reads this presentation to convince their organisation & their country to join up to reduce their carbon emissions by 10% by 2010 to make 2010 the peaking year. Join up at www.1010global.org