Laying the Foundation - SFAR · 2017-11-02 · Laying the Foundation Numbers,darnnumbers! Guest...
Transcript of Laying the Foundation - SFAR · 2017-11-02 · Laying the Foundation Numbers,darnnumbers! Guest...
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9/27/2017
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Santa Fe What is driving Multi-family Housing?
Guest GuideTodd Clarke CCIM
Laying the Foundation
Numbers, darn numbers!
Guest GuideTodd Clarke CCIM
A tale of 2 ½ cities…
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Facilitated by Todd Clarke CCIM• 30 years selling apartments – listed/sold over
11,000 units and $450M• Development consultant (ABQ Uptown, ABQ High
School Lofts, etc.) or property tax protest consultant on another $2.5B
• International Award Winning CCIM instructor• Fellow SFAR member• Former AANM industry champion• Maintain database on every apartment
2 units and up in NM• Total data geek and policy wonk
Multi-family Housing Conference
This morning’s presentation
I. Demographic
DriversII. Calculating
Gap
III. Millennials
(and boomers)
IV. How do we move forward?
Today
Steps To do
on Viability of Santa
Fe
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GAP analysisSimple three Step process:
1. Determine demand2. Determine supply3. Subtract Demand from Supply = GAP
DetailsInfluenced by:
- geography chosen- definition of multifamily
Multi-family Housing Conference
Apartment Metrics
10 people = 1 apartment unit
= Apartment Unit
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Multi-family Housing Conference
City #1 of Santa Fe – all multifamily
Multi-family Housing Conference
City #1 of Santa Fe – demographics
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Multi-family Housing Conference
City #1 of Santa Fe – all multifamily
Game over? Is that the full story?
Multi-family Housing Conference
City of Santa Fe – all multifamily rental
In 1990’s/2000’s Santa Fe converted 1,428 apartments to Condominiums (most owner occupied)
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Multi-family Housing Conference
City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental
Multi-family Housing Conference
City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – demographics
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Multi-family Housing Conference
City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental
• HUGE! But wait, show me that geography again?
Multi-family Housing Conference
City #2 of Santa Fe (county) – all multifamily rental
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Timeout for a geography adjustment…• Create a trade area based on economic
interactions• Eliminate native American lands• Eliminate federal lands• Eliminate national forests• Eliminate those areas that are closed to ABQ
than SF• And you get….
Multi-family Housing Conference
Santa Fe Proper
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Santa Fe Proper
Multi-family Housing Conference
City #2.5 of Santa Fe Proper – all multifamily rental
• This is the gap if we built to 100% occupancy.
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But wait…• Where are these 6,484 residents living now?
– Albuquerque– Espanola– Southern Santa Fe County (trailers)
Multi-family Housing Conference
Today’s focus:• Santa Fe’s amazing
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Additionally…• 23% of the supply of Santa Fe
multifamily rental is affordable
To cater to this audience
6,484 reasons…
But who are they?
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Today’s predominant renter
Meet the consumer of the next decade –84 million strong
Millennials - lifestyle• Lives out of a backpack• Never knew a day without
Google• Asks Facebook friends for
advice• Pursues experiences more
than “things”• Needs constant feedback• Multitasking (crams 28
hours into a 24 hour day)• Has more tie to Facebook
than their country
• Asks their employers “what can you do for me?”
• Marries later• More likely to stay at
home with parents• Highly transient• Not likely to buy homes
• Cares about global more than local
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A millennial profile
• The top 10 jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004
• 10 to 14 different jobs before 38
• 20% of their college education was irrelevant by the time the graduated
• 12%+ met their spouse online
Gig Economy - Meet Fiverr.comGigs or jobs start $5• Logos• Videos• Narration• Data Entry• Programming• Virtual Assistant• Database Creation
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Gig’s- LogosCORE Course Logo
Millennials live in the Gig Economy
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One of my favorite examples of a millennial
• 35• Started in Video with campaign to
complain about Apple service on iPod• Gained international recognition• Had small HBO special• Used that to launch YouTube
videos_blogs or Vlogs- 18 months straight – one every day
• Started App, then tech company around APP
• Just (11/27/2016) sold tech company to CNN
Favorite Santa Fe Millennial – Meow Wulf
• 100 artists• Opened in 2016• Started by Vince Kadludbek• Crowd funded investors include George Martin• International Recognition
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Transportation
Multi-family Housing Conference
We are driving less
• US – Per Capita VMT (annual) • MSA – Per Capita VMT (daily)
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Multi-family Housing Conference
Less Drivers
Multi-family Housing Conference
Less miles traveled
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• 45%!
KRC Research – reduce driving
Multi-family Housing Conference
• Walkscore.com• 27%!
NAR – importance of walking
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• 22%!
NAR Survey – importance of BRT
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Millennials use alternative modes more
Nationally, Millennials are over 4 times more likely to use transit then Gen-X
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Dissatisfied with transportation options
Level of satisfaction increases with age.
Younger RespondentsFewer transportation options
Multi-family Housing Conference
A change in values is at play…
Change in behavior of 18 – 34 Year Olds, 2001 & 2009