Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006
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Transcript of Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCEInventory, Impacts, and Regulation
presentation byRobert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
Lawrence City Commission
Study Session
January 18, 2006
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 2
THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS
Database of the physical inventory of retailing. Contract with city
Potential impact of three proposed retail centers. Northgate Bauer Farm Mercato Added contract with city
Development code recommendations. Subcontract with Stinson Morrison Hecker
Same contract with city
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 3
INVENTORY: Methodology
Define retail geographic concentrations (city & DSI). Field survey (primarily by city staff) Compilation, verification, aggregation (DSI) Peer city comparisons (DSI) Summary report (DSI)
Informative intent; non-judgmental
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 4
INVENTORY: Retail Concentrations
Focus on “typical” retail locations. Shopping Centers First Floors – Second if occupied
Record of occupancy regardless of use or zoning. Record of occupancy if retail land use or zoning.
10 geographic areas plus miscellaneous.• West 6th & Monterey Way• West 6th & Wakarusa• South Iowa Street • West 23rd Street• Downtown
• West 6th Street• Hillcrest Shopping Center • Orchard Corners• Clinton Parkway • East 23rd St.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 5
INVENTORY: Field Survey DSI designed a field recording form. DSI tested the field work. DSI trained city staff. Staff completed field work. Staff created database spreadsheet and sent to DSI.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 6
INVENTORY: Field Survey Form
Shopping Center or Retailer Name Location or Intersection Retail District Anchor Tenants and Approximate Size In-Line Tenants and Approximate Size Out Parcel Tenants and Approximate Size Vacant Space/Leasing Agent Overall Physical Condition/Competitive Quality Approximate Total Square Footage Approximate Age Adjoining or Neighboring Individual Properties (Not in Shopping Centers) Notes Retail Inventory_____________________ Business Name Address Square Footage Condition ________________________________________________________________________
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 7
INVENTORY: Compilation, Verification, Aggregation
Checked against previous Lawrence database. Checked against telephone book and Internet. Checked against Chamber of Commerce data. Checked against Grubb & Ellis local data. Selected telephone calls to retailers. Determined NAICS of each entry (retail or not). Aggregated by geography & NAICS.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 8
INVENTORY: NAICS Codes
“Strictly Retail”
44xxxx Retail Trade
45xxxx Retail Trade
722xxx Eating/Drinking only; lodging in “other”
811xxx Repair & Maintenance
812xxx Personal & Laundry Services
Not Strictly Retail
Non-Retail Offices, hotels, mfg., warehouses, banks.
Vacant Vacant (counted if in retail location)
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 9
SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by NAICS
Retail Trade48.3%
Dining & Bars11.5%
Non-Retail30.4%
Personal Services5.9%
Vacant3.9%
Classification Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL
Square Feet 3,131,660 743,370 381,660 1,966,900 255,420 6,479,010 Pct of Total 48.3% 11.5% 5.9% 30.4% 3.9% 100.0%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 10
SUMMARY DATA: Establishments by NAICS
Classification Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL
Establishments 376 220 137 237 48 1,018 Pct of Total 36.9% 21.6% 13.5% 23.3% 4.7% 100.0%Average Sq. Ft. 8,330 3,380 2,790 8,300 5,320 6,360
Lawrence Retail Space Establishments by Classification
Vacant4.7% Retail Trade
36.9%
Dining & Bars21.6%
Non-Retail23.3%
Personal Services13.5%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 11
SUMMARY DATA: Average Sq. Ft. by NAICS
8,330
3,3802,790
8,300
5,320
6,360
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
RetailTrade
Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail
Vacant TOTAL
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 12
SUMMARY DATA: Dining Establishments
Classification Full ServiceLimited Service Snack Bars Caterers
Drinking Places TOTAL
Establishments 69 77 34 3 37 220 Pct of Total 31.4% 35.0% 15.5% 1.4% 16.8% 100%Lawrence Eating & Drinking Places by Sub-Classification
Drinking Places16.8% Full Service
31.4%
Limited Service35.0%
Caterers1.4%
Snack Bars15.5%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 13
SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by Geography
District Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL
West 6th & Monterey Way 83,350 21,870 6,000 3,670 4,000 118,890 West 6th & Wakarusa 107,830 79,400 18,000 73,490 20,000 298,720 South Iowa Street 1,426,310 113,060 77,860 276,660 47,000 1,940,890 West 23rd Street 415,300 129,540 27,640 105,600 43,710 721,790 Downtown 398,240 196,030 30,760 610,700 96,520 1,332,250 West 6th Street 229,820 77,400 72,810 351,730 - 731,760 Hillcrest Shopping Center 54,770 22,500 7,600 141,280 - 226,150 Orchard Corners 6,000 15,000 5,000 26,000 4,000 56,000 Clinton Parkway 122,530 18,360 11,480 50,860 - 203,230 East 23rd Street 127,250 31,270 66,790 153,140 15,230 393,680 Miscellaneous 158,270 38,950 57,720 175,750 24,960 455,650 Lawrence Totals 3,129,700 743,400 381,700 1,968,900 255,400 6,479,100
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 14
SUMMARY DATA: Percent of Sq. Ft. by Geography
District Retail Trade Dining & BarsPersonal Services Non-Retail Vacant TOTAL
West 6th & Monterey Way 70.1% 18.4% 5.0% 3.1% 3.4% 100%West 6th & Wakarusa 36.1% 26.6% 6.0% 24.6% 6.7% 100%South Iowa Street 73.5% 5.8% 4.0% 14.3% 2.4% 100%West 23rd Street 57.5% 17.9% 3.8% 14.6% 6.1% 100%Downtown 29.9% 14.7% 2.3% 45.8% 7.2% 100%West 6th Street 31.4% 10.6% 9.9% 48.1% 0.0% 100%Hillcrest Shopping Center 24.2% 9.9% 3.4% 62.5% 0.0% 100%Orchard Corners 10.7% 26.8% 8.9% 46.4% 7.1% 100%Clinton Parkway 60.3% 9.0% 5.6% 25.0% 0.0% 100%East 23rd Street 32.3% 7.9% 17.0% 38.9% 3.9% 100%Miscellaneous 34.7% 8.5% 12.7% 38.6% 5.5% 100%Lawrence Totals 48.3% 11.5% 5.9% 30.4% 3.9% 100%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 15
Distribution of Space: City of Lawrence
48.3%
11.5% 5.9%30.4%
3.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RetailTrade
Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet inCity of Lawrence
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 16
Distribution of Space: West 6th & Monterey Way
70.1%
18.4% 5.0% 3.1% 3.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RetailTrade
Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th & Monterey Way District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 17
Distribution of Space: West 6th & Wakarusa
36.1%26.6%
6.0% 24.6% 6.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RetailTrade
Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th & Wakarusa District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 18
Distribution of Space: South Iowa Street
73.5%
5.8% 4.0% 14.3% 2.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 19
Distribution of Space: West 23rd Street
57.5%
17.9% 3.8% 14.6% 6.1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 23rd Street District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 20
Distribution of Space: Downtown
29.9%
14.7% 2.3%
45.8%
7.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theDowntown District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 21
Distribution of Space: West 6th Street
31.4%
10.6% 9.9%
48.1%
0.0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theWest 6th Street District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 22
Distribution of Space: Hillcrest Shopping Center
24.2%9.9%
3.4%
62.5%
0.0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theHillcrest Shopping Center District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 23
Distribution of Space: Orchard Corners
10.7%
26.8%8.9%
46.4%
7.1%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theOrchard Corners District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 24
Distribution of Space: Clinton Parkway
60.3%
9.0%5.6% 25.0%
0.0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
Percent of Retail Square Feet in theClinton Parkway District
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 25
Distribution of Space: East 23rd Street
32.3%7.9% 17.0%
38.9%
3.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 26
Distribution of Space: Miscellaneous Locations
34.7%
8.5% 12.7%
38.6%
5.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail Trade Dining &Bars
PersonalServices
Non-Retail Vacant
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 27
PEER CITIESCity County State Lawrence Douglas Kansas Wichita Sedgwick Kansas Topeka Shawnee Kansas Manhattan Riley Kansas Iowa City Johnson Iowa Ames Story Iowa Oklahoma City Oklahoma Oklahoma Tulsa Tulsa Oklahoma Lincoln Lancaster Nebraska Bloomington Monroe Indiana Champaign-Urbana Champaign Illinois Bloomington-Normal McLean Illinois Columbia Boone Missouri Kirksville Adair Missouri
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 28
PEER CITIES: Population, 2004City County Pct City
Lawrence 82,100 103,000 80%
Wichita 350,600 468,200 75%
Topeka 122,000 170,900 71%
Manhattan 44,700 62,300 72%
Iowa City 62,800 114,900 55%
Ames 51,300 81,400 63%
Oklahoma City 529,600 681,900 78%
Tulsa 391,100 577,200 68%
Lincoln 237,900 263,600 90%
Bloomington 70,600 121,900 58%
Champaign-Urbana 110,700 184,400 60%
Bloomington-Normal 117,200 158,000 74%
Columbia 88,500 141,400 63%
Kirksville 17,200 25,000 69%
AVERAGE 162,600 225,300 72%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 29
PEER CITIES: Retail Sales to EBI
0.59
0.94
1.06
0.86
0.95
0.92
1.00
1.06
0.80
1.15
0.87
0.85
1.30
1.19
0.97
1.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Lawrence
Wichita
Topeka
Manhattan
OK City
Tulsa
Iowa City
Ames
Lincoln
Bloomington
Champaign-Urbana
Bloomington-Normal
Columbia
Kirksville
AVERAGE
Avg w/o Lawrence
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 30
PEER CITIES: Retail Sales Pull Factors Retail Sales Pull Factors, 2004
0.98
1.22
1.31
0.76
1.65
1.21
1.03
1.07
1.18
1.03
1.27
1.66
1.08
1.20
1.22
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Lawrence
Wichita
Topeka
Manhattan
Tulsa Iowa City
Ames
Lincoln
Bloomington
Champaign-Urbana
Bloomington-Normal
Columbia
Kirksville
AVERAGE
Avg w/o Lawrence
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 31
POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL
Project
Total Square
Feet
"Strictly" Retail Square
FeetPercent Retail
Sq. Ft. Consistent
with Inventory
Percent of Lawrence Inventory
if Constructed
Northgate 269,300 265,950 100.0% 269,300 4.0%
Bauer Farm 168,350 61,350 36.4% 118,800 1.8%
Mercato 717,600 600,000 83.6% 600,000 8.3%
TOTAL 1,155,250 930,650 80.6% 988,100 12.9%
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 32
POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Northgate: 269,300 square feet
If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 7.7%.
If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%.
Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).
To absorb 269,300 square feet requires 3,430 more residents.
Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 33
POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Bauer Farm: 118,800 square feet
If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 5.6%.
If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%.
Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).
To absorb 118,800 square feet requires 1,515 more residents.
Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 34
POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Mercato: 600,000 square feet
If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 11.9%.
If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.5%.
Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).
To absorb 600,000 square feet requires 7,650 more residents.
Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 35
POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:All Three: 988,100 square feet
If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 16.3%.
If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.3%.
Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).
To absorb 988,100 square feet requires 12,600 more residents.
Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 36
PEER CITY COMPARISONS Selected cities similar to Lawrence.
Midwest or Great Plains Cities that dominate their counties Stand alone counties (little surrounding development) Major university or similar institution
Used Survey of Buying Power for consistent measures.
Key purpose: Identify “gaps” in supply or demand.