The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with

Altimetry, Argo and Grace

The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with

Altimetry, Argo and Grace

Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge

NOAA Laboratory for Satellite AltimetrySilver Spring, MD

OCO Annual MeetingSilver Spring, MD

September 3 - 5, 2008

Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge

NOAA Laboratory for Satellite AltimetrySilver Spring, MD

OCO Annual MeetingSilver Spring, MD

September 3 - 5, 2008

Program ObjectivesProgram Objectives

Create a Sea Level Climate Record -- Transition T/P-Jason series to full operational status

Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSAT Jason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT

Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget -- Need budget in order to understand processes responsible

for sea level rise, decadal & inter-annual variability. Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide

gauge observations.

Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise If models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years

of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?

Create a Sea Level Climate Record -- Transition T/P-Jason series to full operational status

Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSAT Jason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT

Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget -- Need budget in order to understand processes responsible

for sea level rise, decadal & inter-annual variability. Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide

gauge observations.

Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise If models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years

of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?

Jason-2/OSTM Launch June 20, 2008

4-Partner Mission: NASA, CNES, NOAA & EUMETSAT.

Currently operating in tandem mode, flying 50 seconds behind Jason-1 on same ground track.

• 3 hr OGDR’s available to OST Science Team and NOAA operational users via DDS.

•1-2 day IGDR’s (better orbits, pass segmented) available via CLASS.

•Nov. 2008 -- OGDR’s available to public via CLASS

•Apr-May 2009 -- IGDR’s & GDR’s available to public via CLASS

NOAA Project Scientist -- John Lillibridge

NOAA’s first operational oceanographic satellite!

J-2/OSTM System Overview

NASA/JPL

CNES

EUMETSAT

Usingen

Wallops/ Fairbanks

Jason 2

NOAA

Jason-1

Jason-2

•J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008.

•Near real time products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008.

•Offline products from CNES since 22-Aug-2008.

Excellent agreement between J-2 & J-1

Jason-3 … Joint NOAA & EUMETSAT project

Proposed 2010 Start, 2013 Launch for Overlap with J-2/OSTM

Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa

Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason

1990198019701960 2000

Objective: Create Ocean Equivalent of CO2 ClimateRecord

50+ Years

15+ Years

Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget

NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

NOAA/LSA Altimeter Calibration Website(Under Development)

Improve the IPCC Projections of Sea Level

Rise

The Problem: How accurate are the IPCC projections?

Model projection

The additional land-ice uncertainty

Reconstructed record from tide

gauges

Satellite altimetry

Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007

Observed rise at the upper limit of IPCC TAR projection that includes a “land-ice uncertainty”

IPCC FAR Projections Probably Not Much Better

Model Global Mean Sea Level Trends During TP-era, (1990-2000) Based

on FAR Climate of the 20th Century Scenario (20C3M).

Model GMSL Steric Ratio(mm/yr) (mm/yr)

CGCM3.1 0.32 0.79 2.47GISS AOM 6.11 3.51 0.57GISS E20/Russell 1.99 0.72 0.36INMCM3.0 1.34 1.38 1.03MIROC3.2 hires 2.71 2.32 0.85MRI CGCM23.2 3.98 5.69 1.42

(Leuliette et al., 2006)

Suggestion: NOAA Obs/Model Program to Improve Projections of Sea Level Rise

• Model projections don’t agree well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

• Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities.

• Possible broad agency involvement: OAR, NESDIS, NOS

• Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

•Model projections don’t agree very well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections.

•Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities.

•Possible broad agency involvement: OAR (OCO, GFDL, PMEL, AOML), NESDIS(STAR/LSA,NODC/OCL), NOS

•Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

Altimetry Now Used In Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

ERM

GM

Geosat/Tide Gauge Comparison: Old Orbits vs New Orbits

Jason-2 vs Jason-1 Coverage

•Tandem mode - J2 (cycle 2) flying 50 seconds behind J1(cycle 241) on same ground track.

•Altimeter range measurement: J2 nearly 100% over land & ocean; J1 missing over land and near (<20 km) coasts.

•Sea level anomaly (sla): J1 & J2 coverage lose mostly due to radiometer rain/ice corruption flag

J2 better radiometer coverage

Jason-2 Jason-1

Sea Level Anomaly (cm) Sea Level Anomaly (cm)

Jason-2/OSTM Cal/Val & Data Release

Significance: NOAA's role in OSTM/Jason-2 includes satellite command/control, NRT data production, and archive & distribution. This mission assures continuity of the 15 year global sea level climate data record begun by Topex & Jason-1, with sufficient overlap for cross calibration and validation.

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/idm/2008/jul-2008-jason-2-on-the-tracks-of-jason-1/index.html

(Courtesy of J. Lillibridge - NOAA Project Scientist) Sponsor: NOAA, NASA, CNES, & EUMETSAT

J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008. Near real time (OGDR) products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008. Offline (IGDR) products from CNES released to SWT on 22-Aug-2008.

Coastal Satellite Altimetry

• Altimeter measurements of sea surface height (SSH), significant wave height (SWH), and wind speed have many potential applications in coastal zones, despite the common perception that altimetry does not “work” near coast.

• The Problem: Altimeter data processing typically optimized for open ocean applications. Coastal sampling, editing and correction issues need to be addressed…e.g.– Use of 10 hz along track sampling instead of 1 hz– Data flagging optimized for coasts instead of open ocean.– Path length corrections optimized to minimize land contamination– Improved near-shore tide models

• The Solution: collaborative programs aimed at improving measurements and developing products. The Europeans are far ahead of the U.S. in this area.

NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

Create a Climate Record of Sea Level --Transition T/P-Jason series to operational status Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSATJason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT

Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget --Need budget in order to understand processes responsible for sea level rise, decadal variability, etc.Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide gauge observations.

Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level RiseIf models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?

Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa

Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason

1990198019701960 2000

Climate Monitoring Requires Foresight & Commitment

50+ Years

15+ Years

AR4 Model-based Projections of Sea Level Rise

From: AR4 WGI SPM Courtesy of Ron Stouffer, GFDL/NOAA

Note:• No upper bound• No likelihood• No best estimate• Model-based estimate only; no expert judgment

(meters)

15+ Year (1993-2008) Altimeter Trends in Sea Level