EXPLAINING THE REGION’S RECENT ELECTIONS

POL 321DR. MIGUEL CENTELLAS

Latin America’s Shift to the Left

José Machado (Cuba VP)

Manuel Zelaya

(Honduras)

Hugo Chávez

(Venezuela)

Evo Morales(Bolivia)

Daniel Ortega

(Nicaragua)

1998 •1999 • 2000 • 2001 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 • 2005 • 2006 • 2007 • 2008 • 2009

Venezuela: Hugo Chávez

December 1998

Participated in 1992 coup against then-president Carlos Andrés Perez (later impeached).

Released from prison (and pardoned), Chávez launched new electoral vehicle for “Bolivarian” political project.

Elected in 1998 (56%), reelected in 2002 (60%), and survived a coup (2002) and a recall vote (2003). Pushed through new constitution in 1999 and seeking “indefinite” reelection.

Brazil: Luiz Inácio (“Lula”) da Silva

October 2002

A factory worker with a 4th grade education, Lula rose through union ranks to lead the Workers’ Party (PT).

He ran unsuccessfully in 1998, won a decisive victory (63%) in 2002, and was reelected in 2006. Lula has sought to continue Brazil’s economic growth while reducing the country’s high inequality.

Under Lula, Brazil has become a major regional (and potential world) power.

Bolivia: Evo Morales

December 2005

Leader of Bolivia’s cocaleros (coca farmers) and outspoken critic of “neocolonialism.”

Won a decisive majority (54%) to become the country’s first indigenous president.

A close ally of Hugo Chávez, Morales has nationalized industries (oil, gas, mining) and pushed through a new constitution.

Up for reelection December 2009.

Chile: Michelle Bachelet

January 2006

Served as minister of Health (2000-2002) and Defense (2002-2006) during the Ricardo Lagos government (2000-2006).

Won a second-round election (53%) on a center-left platform that promised to continue liberal economic policies, but with greater emphasis on reducing inequality.

Nicaragua: Daniel Ortega

November 2006

Leader of the Sandinista government (1985-1990) and hero of the 1979 Revolution.

Publicly “converted” and reconciled with the Catholic Church, as part of a move to the center. Narrowly (38-28-27) beat two candidates of the right.

Ortega is an ally of Hugo Chávez, who provides Nicaragua with significant economic aid.

Argentina: Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner

October 2007

Succeeded her husband (Néstor Kirchner), who remained in control of the Peronist party.

She won a decisive victory (45-22-12) on a platform critical of the IMF and promising to return Argentina to better times. Her campaign frequently alluded to the 2001 economic crisis.

The Kirchners are strong allies of Hugo Chávez, and frequently speak out against the US.

“Populists” “Populists” Social DemocratsSocial Democrats

Address economic inequality through radical economic redistribution and nationalization

If existing institutional frameworks block social change, abolish or sidestep institutional guarantees

Constant, polarizing campaigns to mobilize political support for policies or to intimidate opponents (frequent use of “bully pulpit”)

Address economic inequality by expanding social safety nets, but without upsetting market economy

Work through existing institutional frameworks, even if this means changes are slow

Social, economic issues treated as technical matters and handled through bureaucratic institutions (distinction between “politics” and “governance”)

TWO KINDS OF “LEFTS” IN LATIN AMERICA

Social DemocracyA political ideology that incorporates elements of both socialism and capitalism. This is usually done through comprehensive welfare programs and/or through significant state regulation designed to “check” the tendency of capitalism to produce social inequalities.

At right, logos of various social democratic parties in Europe.