Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift.
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Transcript of Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift.
Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO
m dwtm dwt
Projected tanker fleet development1992-2013
1. Current orderbook2. Phase out of all SH tankers by end 2010
270
326
382
438
494
550
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,300
3,920
4,540
5,160
5,780
6,400
dwt Number
numbernumber
Based on:
Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO
USD bn USD bn InvestmentInvestment
Orders for new tankers – USD bn
USD m USD m price price
0
10
20
30
40
50
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Jul-
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Handy
Panamax
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
m dwt
World oil demand mbd
mbd
Source. IEA
Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW* 1Q05-4Q11
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
ProjectionSource IEA
-2.6
-2.2
-1.8
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
China USAMiddle East * Rest of worldWorld
Oth. Asia: + 0.31 mbdL America: + 0.21 "FSU: +0.10 " Africa: +0.13 "Others: -0.13 "
mbd
Tanker Markets Today ?
• Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2010: Down 0.6%• Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2010: Up 19%
• Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2011: Up 0.8%• Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2011: Up 26%
Market Forecast !
Oil demand and tanker fleet indices
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
360
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Oil demand index
Fleet index (oil and chemical tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt)
VLCC freight rate index
Tanker Markets Today
• Demand : World oil trade
• Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development
• Tanker market
• Shipbuilding capacity
World Oil Demand vs. GDP
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
61
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
% c
ha
ng
e (
ye
ar
on
ye
ar)
IMF GDP
Oil Demand
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
Tanker Contracting1996-2010
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
901
99
6
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
mil
lio
n d
ead
wei
gh
t
Handy
MR
Panamax
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
Tanker Contractingby Country of Build
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
501
99
6
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
mil
lio
n d
ead
wei
gh
t
Rest of World
Korea
Japan
China
Newbuilding Tanker Prices
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
-76
Jan
-77
Jan
-78
Jan
-79
Jan
-80
Jan
-81
Jan
-82
Jan
-83
Jan
-84
Jan
-85
Jan
-86
Jan
-87
Jan
-88
Jan
-89
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
$mill
ion
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Product
Tanker Orderbook Development*
*Data pertains to end of period and last complete month
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 now
de
ad
we
igh
t (m
illi
on
s)
Handy 25-39
MR 40-54
Panamax 55-84
Aframax 85-124
Suezmax 125-199
VLCC 200+
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Tanker Cancellations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR
no
of
ve
ss
els
2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Tanker Order Slippage2009 Vs 2010
Proportion (%) of schedule that did not deliver in 09/10
45
2420
33
11
3027
43
19
1317 15
2926
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
All Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy
% n
ot
del
iver
ed a
s sc
hed
ule
d
2009
2010ytd
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Tanker Fleet Delivery Schedule
20.0
39.0 40.7
15.0
5.12.6 2.9 2.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013
dea
dw
eig
ht
(mill
ion
)
Deliveries (forecast) MINUS Cancellations & Slippage Removals (forecast)
*Includes phase out ideas, 2010 reflects remainder of the year
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Tanker Age Profile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4501
97
0-1
97
41
97
5-1
97
91
98
01
98
11
98
21
98
31
98
41
98
51
98
61
98
71
98
81
98
91
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
02
01
12
01
22
01
32
01
4
no
of
ve
ss
els
Handy
MR
Panamax
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt
Based on LRFairplayBased on LRFairplay
6
8
10
12
14
1619
70
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Years
Tanker Fleet Comparisons
8 4 4 7 5
18
37 39
2025
1217
7271 7076 77
59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
ex
isit
ing
fl
ee
t (d
wt)
non-double hull On Order Built since 2000
*Note that Aframax and Panamax include coated vessels
Source: Clarksons, September 2010
Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Trading beyond 2010 ?
Australia NoChina NoEU NoMexico NoRomania NoS Korea No*Philippines No*UAE No*
(*No official note sent to IMO yet)
Bahamas Yes
Barbados Yes
Liberia Yes
Marshall Isl. Yes
Panama Flag Yes
Japan Yes
Singapore Yes
India Yes
Hong Kong Yes**
(** Max. 20 years old)
Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years
United States N/A (OPA90)
Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO
USD/dayUSD/day
Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until September
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
VLCC AG-Japan, 250,000 ts
Suezmax Wafr-US 130,000 ts
Aframax N Sea-UKCont, 80,000 ts
Product Caribs-US, 38,000 ts
The uncertainties
• Global or regional economic stagnation
• New pipelines
• Natural and other disasters – e.g. Macondo spill
• Climate Change legislation – e.g. voluntary or involuntary slower speeds
• Oil price – floating storage/contango opportunities and inventory levels
Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean Pipeline
Shipbuilding output and forecast
Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09
m cgtm cgt
2631 33
38
26
26
55
42
15
3 0
914% 26
38%
4876% 62
95%67
99%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Available capacity
Orderbook
Historical deliveries