Latin America in a Global Context...Global Population Latin American Population Source: UN (2011)....

Latin America in a Global Context

Kate Calvin

Latin American Modeling Project Belo Horizonte, Brazil

January 17, 2012

1

GDP and Population

2

In 2010, about 600 million people lived in Latin America.

!"!#

!"$#

!"%#

!"&#

!"'#

!"(#

!")#

!"*#

$+(!# $+)!# $+*!# $+,!# $++!# %!!!# %!$!#

!"##"$%

&

-./01#

2/340#

51607.375#

8-43935#

:01;#

9070<;045#

2-4-=835#

=0>32-#

815<34#

3

!"

#"

$"

%"

&"

'"

("

)"

*"

#+'!" #+(!" #+)!" #+*!" #++!" $!!!" $!#!"

!"##"$%

&

,-."/012"3"456-70"

829:6"41-0"

;<.-0"

=9-<0"

>?6@:6"A?B-:2"C<-?<"

829:6"8/=D"

/E6?F:"

CA4"

G0H<"4@:6-70"

Global Population Latin American Population

Source: UN (2011). “World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (Long-Range Projections Supplement)”

In 2009, Latin America had a GDP between $4 (MER) and $7 (PPP) trillion

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!"

(!"

)!"

#*+!" #*+&" #*++" #**$" #**(" $!!!" $!!&" $!!+"

!"#$$#%&'())*+'

,-."/012"3"456-70"

829:6"41-0"

;<.-0"

=9-<0"

>?6@:6"A?B-:2"C<-?<"

829:6"8/=D"

/E6?F:"

CA4"

G0H<"4@:6-70"

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!"

(!"

)!"

*!"

+!"

#+*!" #+*&" #+**" #++$" #++(" $!!!" $!!&" $!!*"

!"#$$#%&'())*+'

,-."/012"3"456-70"

829:6"41-0"

;<.-0"

=9-<0"

>?6@:6"A?B-:2"C<-?<"

829:6"8/=D"

/E6?F:"

CA4"

G0H<"4@:6-70"

4

GDP (MER) GDP (PPP)

Source: IMF(2011). “World Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks”

Energy Consumption and Production

5

!"

#!"

$!!"

$#!"

%!!"

%#!"

&!!"

&#!"

'!!"

'#!"

#!!"

$()#" $(*#" $(+#" $((#" %!!#"

!"#$%&

,-./0"1234"

56734"

8.364"

,-./0",98:"

9;0<=/">"9;04234"

?@1"

A4B6"1C/03D4"

In 2010, Latin America Consumed ~33 EJ of Total Primary Energy.

6

Total Primary Energy Consumption

Source: BP (2011). “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011”

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!!"

'#!"

'(%)" '(*)" '(&)" '(()" #!!)"

!"#$%&

+,-./"0123"

45623"

7-253"

+,-./"+879"

8:/;<."="8:/3123"

>?0"

@3A5"0B./2C3"

In 2010, Latin America Consumed ~10 EJ of Fossil Fuels (Mostly Oil).

7

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!!"

'#!"

'$!"

'%!"

'(%)" '(*)" '(&)" '(()" #!!)"

!"#$%&

+,-./"0123"

45623"

7-253"

+,-./"+879"

8:/;<."="8:/3123"

>?0"

@3A5"0B./2C3"

Oil Gas

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!!"

'#!"

'$!"

'%!"

'(%)" '(*)" '(&)" '(()" #!!)"

!"#$%&

+,-./"0123"

45623"

7-253"

+,-./"+879"

8:/;<."="8:/3123"

>?0"

@3A5"0B./2C3"

Coal

!"

#!"

$!!"

$#!"

%!!"

%#!"

&!!"

&#!"

'!!"

'#!"

$()#" $(*#" $(+#" $((#" %!!#"

!"#$%&

,-./0"1234"

56734"

8.364"

,-./0",98:"

9;0<=/">"9;04234"

?@1"

A4B6"1C/03D4"

Fossil Fuels


In 2010, Latin America Consumed ~10 EJ of Hydropower and Produced ~1 EJ of Biofuels

!"!#

!"$#

%"!#

%"$#

&"!#

&"$#

'"!#

&!!!# &!!&# &!!(# &!!)# &!!*# &!%!#

!"#$%&

+,-./#0123#

45623#

7-253#

+,-./#+879#

8:/;<.#=#8:/3123#

>?0#

@3A5#0B./2C3#

8

Hydro Consumption Biofuels Production

!"

#"

$!"

$#"

%!"

%#"

&!"

&#"

$'(#" $')#" $'*#" $''#" %!!#"

!"#$%&

+,-./"0123"

45623"

7-253"

+,-./"+879"

8:/;<."="8:/3123"

>?0"

@3A5"0B./2C3"


Land Area

9

Latin America has ~2 billion Ha of Land, Approximately Half is Forest.

!"!#

$"!#

%"!#

&"!#

'"!#

(!"!#

($"!#

(%"!#

()&(# ()*(# ()'(# ())(# $!!(#

!"##"$%

&'(&

+,-#./01#2#345,6/#

71895#30,/#

:;-,/#

<8,;/#

=>5?95#@>A,91#B;,>;#

71895#7.<C#

.D5>E9#

B@3#

F/G;#3?95,6/#

10

Total Land Area

!"!#

$"!#

%"!#

&"!#

'"!#

("!#

)"!#

$*)$# $*+$# $*,$# $**$# %!!$#

!"##"$%

&'(&

-./#0123#4#567.81#

93:;7#52.1#

<=/.1#

>:.=1#

?@7A;7#B@C.;3#D=.@=#

93:;7#90>E#

0F7@G;#

DB5#

H1I=#5A;7.81#

!"!#

!"$#

%"!#

%"$#

&"!#

&"$#

'"!#

'"$#

("!#

("$#

%))!# %))$# &!!!# &!!$#

!"##"$%

&'(&

*+,#-./0#1#234+5.#

60784#2/+.#

9:,+.#

;7+:.#

<=4>84#?=@+80#A:+=:#

60784#6-;B#

-C4=D8#

A?2#

E.F:#2>84+5.#

Agricultural Land

Forest Land

Source: FAOSTAT. Accessed January 7, 2012.

Emissions

11

In 2005, Latin America Emitted ~0.4 GtC from Energy-Related Activities and ~0.6 GtC from Land Use Change

!"

#"

$"

%"

&"

'"

("

)"

*"

+"

#*!!"#*$'"#*'!"#*)'"#+!!"#+$'"#+'!"#+)'"$!!!"

!"#$%&'

,-."/012"3"456-70"

829:6"41-0"

;<.-0"

=9-<0"

>?6@:6"A?B-:2"C<-?<"

829:6"8/=D"

/E6?F:"

CA4"

G0H<"4@:6-70"

!"!#

!"$#

!"%#

!"&#

!"'#

("!#

("$#

("%#

("&#

("'#

(')!# ('*)# (+!!# (+$)# (+)!# (+*)# $!!!#

!"#$%&'

,-.#/012#3#456-70#

829:6#41-0#

;9-<0#

=>6?:6#@>A-:2#B<-><#

829:6#8/;C#

/D6>E:#

B@4#

F0G<#4?:6-70#

12 Source: CDIAC. Accessed January 7, 2012.

Fossil Fuel & Industrial CO2 Land-Use Change CO2

Latin America in 2005

13


14

!"#

$%"#

!"#$%&'"()

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#

!"#

$%"#

!"#$%&'()$

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#

!"#

$%"#

!"#$%###&$

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#

Source: IMF(2011). UN (2011).


15

!"#

$%"#

!"#$%&'()*$(+&,-.(/+&0"-12*34"-&

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#

!"#

$%"#

!"##$%&!'(%&)"*#'+,-"*&

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#



16

!"#$

%&#$

!"#$%&'()*+#,%-.#/)

'()*$+,-./0($ 123$

!!"#

$%"#

!"#$%&'%()*+,-%(&

&'()#*+,-./'# 012#



17

!"#$

%&#$

!"#$%&'$()&*+,$&

'()*$+,-./0($ 123$

!"#$

%&#$

!"#$%&'

'()*$+,-./0($ 123$

!"#$

%"#$

!"#$%&'(&#)'*+),-*!#.)*

&'()$*+,-./'$ 012$

Source: FAOSTAT. Accessed January 7, 2012.


18

!"#

$!"#

!"##$%&!'(%&)&*+,'#-.$/%&01$##$"+#&

%&'(#)*+,-.&# /01#

!"#$%&#$

!"#$%&'(%)*"#+(%,-.''./#'%

'()*$+,-./0($ 123$

Source: CDIAC. Accessed January 7, 2012.

Latin America in the Future

19

Future Scenarios for Latin America

! While there are many scenario exercises with published results, most do not publish Latin America data separately. ! SRES groups Latin America with Africa and the Middle East ! EMF22 had Brazil as a region, but didn’t collect any data ! RCPs do separate Latin America, but only publish emissions results ! AME collected data from native model regions, but is not public yet and

will probably only publish results for Asian countries, the USA, Europe and the World as a whole.

! For this presentation, we are using 11 different GCAM scenarios. These scenarios vary population, GDP, technology cost, and resource supply assumptions. ! GCAM is a global integrated assessment model that links together

models of the economy, energy, agriculture, land use, and climate. It will be discussed in the next talk.

20

Future Estimates of Population and Income

!"

#!!"

$!!"

%!!"

&!!"

'!!!"

'#!!"

'()!" #!!!" #!)!" #'!!"

!"##"$%&

21

Population GDP per Capita

Sources: UN/IMF (history), GCAM (future)

!"

#!!!!"

$!!!!"

%!!!!"

&!!!!"

'!!!!"

(!!!!"

)!!!!"

*!!!!"

+!!!!"

#!!!!!"

#+'!" $!!!" $!'!" $#!!"

!""#$%&'

()*+

,

Future Estimates of Energy Consumption

!"

#!"

$!"

%!"

&!"

'!!"

'#!"

'$!"

'%!"

'&!"

'()!" '(*!" '((!" #!'!" #!+!" #!)!" #!*!" #!(!"

!"#$%&

22

Total Primary Energy Consumption

Sources: BP(history), GCAM (future)

!"

#!!!"

$!!!"

%!!!"

&!!!"

'!!!"

(!!!"

)!!!"

*!!!"

+!!!"

#!!!!"

#*'!" #+!!" #+'!" $!!!" $!'!" $#!!"

!"#$

%&'()

!"###$

!%##$

#$

%##$

"###$

"%##$

&###$

&%##$

'###$

'%##$

(###$

")%#$ "*##$ "*%#$ &###$ &#%#$ &"##$

!"#$

%&'()

Future Estimates of Emissions

23

Fossil Fuel & Industrial CO2 Land-Use Change CO2

Sources: CDIAC (history), GCAM (future)

QUESTIONS?

24

Latin America in a Global Context...Global Population Latin American Population Source: UN (2011)....

Documents

Transcript of Latin America in a Global Context...Global Population Latin American Population Source: UN (2011)....