LAST TIME

• Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America

• Urbanization

�Problems with urban growth continued

• The urban economy

•Migration

TODAY

• Agricultural and Rural Development

• Tropical Deforestation

Agricultural and Rural Development: Internal Colonization of Tropical Lowlands

• An example from Amazonia

�> 600 million ha

�Amazonian environments

�Terra firme

�Várza�Savanna

Development history in Amazonia

• Early extractive uses

�Rubber

�Forestry

Development history in Amazonia

• “Spontaneous” peasant agricultural colonization

�Brazilian

�Andean

Development history in Amazonia

• Governmentally planned peasant colonization�highways

�planning excessively centralized

�Highway location bad for soils

�geopolitical motives

�domestic political motives

Development history in Amazonia

• Cattle ranching

• Fishbone patterns

Development history in Amazonia

• Scale & geography of change

• Soil degradation on already poor soils

• Poor rural health

• Poor government planning

Development history in Amazonia

• Consequences

• Farm abandonment

• Consolidation by cattle ranchers and large soy farmers

• urbanization

Amazonian deforestation

• Wider consequences�in Brazil�speculation and abandoned lands�deforestation of rare tropical rain forest�destruction of species�destruction of Indigenous people’s traditional livelihood

�consequences for global warming�fails to solve land tenure problem

• Solutions?

Tropical Deforestation

• Deforestation rates

Tropical Deforestation

• Causes�agricultural clearing�pasture clearing�timber harvesting�oil exploration/extraction�population growth?�degradation of lands in source areas of migrants

�poor land tenure equity in source areas of migrants

© T. M. Whitmore

Population and Environmental Change in Latin America

• 519 million people in 2000 (UN, 2001)

• 30 year doubling time, 1970-2000. 1 billion by 2100?

• Declining fertility, Rural out-migration (2% annually) andUrbanization, but…

• Rapid forest clearing

• Major impact of rural-rural migrants and pasture expansion

© T. M. Whitmore

Significance

Environmental Impacts

The Amazon basin alone contains:

1) the greatest extent of closed tropical forests in the world

2) 45% of all the fresh water on the Earth

3) the planet’s largest carbon sink

4) the planet’s most bio-diverse forests

Human development Impacts

• rural underdevelopment

• food production

© T. M. Whitmore

Central America: Forest Cover

Source: FAO, 2003

© T. M. Whitmore

South America: Forest Cover

Source: FAO, 2003

© T. M. Whitmore

Results

Central America

1961-2001

• 59% rural population increase (19 million)

• 34%. rural population density increase.

• 15% deforestation (13 million ha.)

• Great temporal and geographic variation

© T. M. Whitmore-68%-47%-40%87%51%1.20Panama

-79%-51%-51%137%29%0.81Nicaragua

-32%2%-6%39%21%0.78Mexico

-56%5%-11%101%109%1.02Honduras

-70%-46%-51%62%71%2.81Haiti

-80%-62%-49%156%106%1.79Guatemala

-66%-17%-49%51%8%2.51El Salvador

59%109%100%26%-22%2.32

Dominican

Republic

-72%-24%-45%98%81%1.76Costa Rica

1961-

2000

1981-

20001961-20011961-20001961-20011961

Change

Forest/Capita

Deforesta

tion

Rural Population

Change

Rural Population

Density

CENTRAL AMERICA

© T. M. Whitmore

Central America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently

Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land

12.9% 13.1% 15.2%

34.9% 36.7%38.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1961 1981 2001

© T. M. Whitmore2852223019.0417.7510.39Average

293055.044.832.48Panama

236044.386.371.53Nicaragua

1870156119123.1522.1712.63Mexico

1522865.604.653.38Honduras

14606.827.823.02Haiti

18389156.823.982.08Guatemala

7388214.954.972.78El Salvador

98581417.2311.9311.11Dominican Republic

128721920.5712.975.42Costa Rica

Central America

200119811961200119811961

Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)

Percent A&P Land Irrigated

© T. M. Whitmore

South America

1961-2001

• 62 million decrease in rural population (-6%)

• rural population density nearly halved

• 6% deforestation (12% weighted).

© T. M. Whitmore

19%38%26%6%-57%2.15Venezuela

-46%-14%8%101%-48%1.50Paraguay

-64%-35%-43%59%34%1.18Ecuador

-30%-3%-16%20%40%1.76Colombia

-7%-15%-18%-12%46%0.64Chile

23%20%-3%-21%-66%1.41Brazil

-40%-13%-12%47%-32%1.49Bolivia

-18%-39%-34%-19%-34%0.19Argentina

1961-20001981-20001961-20011961-20001961-20011961

Change Forest/CapitaDeforestation

Rural Population

Change

Rural Population

Density

SOUTH

AMERICA

© T. M. Whitmore

South America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently

Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land

4.6%8.4% 7.7%

23.9%

26.3% 30.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1961 1981 2001

© T. M. Whitmore

1,170434547.394.744.89Average

3001461916.878.3914.46Venezuela

6790.62.153.093.70Paraguay

231701128.9820.6517.53Ecuador

6402807121.187.434.55Colombia

4811144682.6122.7428.02Chile

6,7732,7532704.382.591.73Brazil

1270.84.264.444.99Bolivia

86096164.464.553.45Argentina

South America

200119811961200119811961

Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)

Percent A&P Land Irrigated

© T. M. Whitmore

Revisiting hypotheses

Population and Forest Clearing

• Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND deforestation rates and deforestation rates per capita (rural). YES AND NO

What are the land use drivers?

• Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND cropland relative to pasture. YES and NO

• Negative relation between rural population and population density AND relative agricultural intensification. YES

© T. M. Whitmore

Conclusion

• Future food production: intensification and pasture expansion

• Migration

• Scale

• Data limitations

• Policy implications

In-migration of

Colonists

Fordlândia

Jarí

Area of high density of rubber trees

© T. M. Whitmore

USGS

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

NASA