Large Scale Application of Social Dilemma Research

Approach in Transportation Policy: Persuasive Communication

in Mobility Management

Ayako TANIGUCHI, Assistant Prof. Univ. of Tsukuba

Satoshi FUJII, Prof. Kyoto Univ.

ISCD 2009Kyoto

21st August 2009

Purpose of this presentation

• In social dilemma research, we have accumulated various knowledge to solve social dilemmas

e.g. - psychological strategy rather than structural

strategy can work,

- importance of persuasive communication,

- habit would impede behavior change,

- trust is important, etc…..

• To show how these knowledge applied in actual large scale policies to solve the real world social dilemmas,

• In this study, we introduced a large scale persuasive-communication measures that has been widely implemented as a practical transportation measure in a lot of developed countries (e.g. EU, Australia and

Japan).

This measure was developed based on social dilemmas’ approach and tries to change from defective behavior into cooperative behavior in order to ease social dilemma in traffic problems.

Social Dilemma in transportation

Merits and Demerits: car vs. public transport （ Everitt & Watson, 1987 ）

Merits Demerits

Car

Train

or Bus

　　　　　　　　　　

・ Short travel time・ Free departure/ arrival time・ Free route choice・ able to carry heavy packs・ No each payment・ being able to flaunt・ being able to protect privacy・ Uplifting feeling 　　・ reliable 　　　　　　　　　　　

9 items

・ Traffic congestion・ Cost : fuel and running cost

2 items

・ Conversation with friends・ being able to read book

2 items ・ Limited timing for use・ No free route choice・ No carry heavy packs・ should pay each time・ long distance to station / bus stop・ Uncomfortable・ No flaunt ／ depend on weather・ congestion ／ bad attitude of crew・ dirtiness ／ noisy ／ dangerous・ take long time ／ un reliable

14 items

Car is obviously personally beneficial!

PrivateRailway

TaxiJapanRailway

Route bus Car( 年 )

茨城県公共交通活性化指針より

Travel mode share at pref. Ibaraki

Others

This is because Car is convenient,

comfortable,and attractive.

…However

Traffic Congestion in Japan

• Lost 42 hours / person/ year

• Lost 100,000 yen / person /year

CO2 emission of each travel mode

45.0

30.0

24.0

19.0

9.0

8.0

6.0

5.0

3.0

0 10 20 30 40 50

Car

Air plane

Ferry

Route bus

Tram

Private bus

Super express way

Railway

Metro

CO2 emission to travel 1km by 1 person ( g ・ C/person ・ km)

Double!

Ninefold!

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

US

A

CA

NA

DA

GB

France

Italy

Germ

an

Sw

eden

Australia

Netherland

Denm

ark

Degree of obesity %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sustainable m

ode share %

Degree of obesity

Sustainable mode share

10

Degree of obesity and sustainable mode share

(urban area) by individual countries

Increase in degree of obesitycause growth in

medical spending

•Traffic congestion•Global warming•Public health 　　　　 etc… 　　

There is a lot of social demerits!

Car is convenient but…

Social problem caused by car is

typical Social Dilemma situation

•The car use is convenient for each individual.

•However, traffic congestion is caused by people’s “detective” behavior to excessively use car rather

“cooperative” behavior to use more collective transportation mode such as train or bus.

•Transportation problem (e.g. congestion) would disappear if everybody uses such collective modes, but it would get extremely heavy if everybody use car.

Social dilemma situation of transport problems

To ease a situation of social dilemma

To ease a situation of social dilemma

■Structural strategies

construction of road network, improvement of public transport network, and road pricing

■Psychological strategies

change people’s attitude and behavior

from detective ones (i.e. excessive car use)

to cooperative ones (i.e. reduction of car use and incre

ase of alternative transport modes use)

without changing payoff structure

Voluntary Behavior Change

• A typical psychological strategy is

persuasive communication targeting car users to change their behavior into more cooperative travel behavior.

• Such persuasive communication was called often as Travel Feedback Programs since the communication typically includes feedback information regarding the target behavior.

Persuasive communication

• A individualized communicative transport measures for personal attitude and behavior change are called in many way;

- Individualized Marketing

- TravelSmart

- Travel Blending

- personalized travel planning……etc….

• We call these measures as

Travel Feedback Program (TFP)

Travel Feedback Program

• Distribution of a leaflet to motive travel behavior modification

• Provision of travel information

• Requesting to conduct a Behavioral plan

Typical tools

• The leaflet including - health - environment (CO2 emission) - current situation of Sanyo railway

continuing to shrink - the fact that it is a critical moment

of existence for the railway

「かしこいクルマの使い方」を考えるプログラム

クルマはとても便利で、快適な乗り物です。

しかし、クルマのある生活には、困った事も少なくありません。

ここではこのことについて少し冷静に考えてみましょう。

クルマ利用と「環境問題」

排出するCO２の重さ（kg）

（詳細はwww.plan.cv.titech.ac.jp/ fujiilab/ info/ をご覧下さい。）

クルマを使わない一日

10

クルマを１時間使う一日

５

普段みなさんが使ってるクルマには、このようなデータもあります・・・普段みなさんが使ってるクルマには、このようなデータもあります・・・

ちょっとクルマを使うだけで、あなたが排出するＣＯ２

（二酸化炭素：地球温暖化ガス）は何倍にもなってしまいます。

クルマ利用と「健康」

移動に伴う消費カロリー（kcal）

◇ 例えば、1時間クルマで移動する代わりにバス・電車を使えば、それだけで消費カロリーは２倍以上になります。

クルマではずっと座っていられます。だからこそ、便利なのですが、だからこそ、健康にはよくありません。

［出典：第６次改訂日本人の栄養所要量］

クルマではずっと座っていることができます。だからこそ、便利なのですが、だからこそ、健康にはよくありません。・・・・・

0

２００

１０0

クルマバス・電車

［出典：環境省］（詳細はwww.plan.cv.titech.ac.jp/ fujiilab/ info/ をご覧下さい。）

◇例えば１時間クルマを使うだけで、一人の排出CO２は２倍以上にもなってしまいます。

◇クルマは（例えば）電車の約10倍のCO2を排出しています。

0

神戸電鉄の現状

しかし、神戸電鉄の利用者は、ここ数年で激減しています。

このままいくと、今と同じように電車を走らせることが、できなくなるかもしれません．．．．

60000

50000

H8 H10 H12 H14

［資料：神戸電鉄］

（詳細はwww.plan.cv.titech.ac.jp/ fujiilab/ info/ をご覧下さい。）

神戸電鉄の輸送人員の推移（千人）

40000

◇ H８年から１４年にかけて神戸電鉄の利用者は２３.６％減少しています。

９割以上の住民の方が，神戸電鉄を必要と考えているようです。

◇ 神鉄沿線で行ったアンケート調査では９０.５％の方々が「神戸電鉄は必要」と回答しています。

［資料：神戸電鉄］

（詳細はwww.plan.cv.titech.ac.jp/ fujiilab/ info/ をご覧下さい。）

「あなたにとって、神戸電鉄は必要ですか？」

神戸電鉄の必要性

回答者数：９９７人

必要

不要

９５人

９０２人

そしてそして、クルマばかり、クルマばかりをを使っていると・・・使っていると・・・

Distribution of a leaflet to motive travel behavior modification

Leaflet to promote bus use targeting high school students in Ibaraki pref.

PROJECTMotivational leaflet

Provision of travel informationTravel Information including

- Bus route map

- timetable and fares of train

- timetable and fares of bus

- location and fares of parking for bike

- route map of walking

1)龍ケ崎市のコミュニティ･バスを使うことがあると思いますか？ □ √に を記入してください。

2)それはどのような用事 ですか？ 記入例を参考にお答えください。

(記入例)

用事 市役所に行く

いつ 朝10:00頃

どこから 自宅

どこまで 市役所前

用事

いつ

どこから

どこまで

用事

いつ

どこから

どこまで

□ □ □絶対にない あるかもしれない ある

次ページの問2にお進み下さい。

このバス利用プランは、第1回アンケートの時に、あなたご自身が記入された内容をもとに、コミュニティ･バスを使った移動プランを具体的に示したものです。

これら二つをご覧になった上で、以下の質問にお答え下さい。

まず、同封のフォルダの中の

「かしこいバスの使い方」を考えるプログラム

Requesting a behavioral plan(1)

Do you think that you have a chance

to use bus sometime in the future?

What purpose?When?

From where to where?

Requesting a behavioral plan(2)

To request filling behavioral plan sheet,we would like to help participant’s Image training

Please draw the routefrom your home to destination

Which you have written above

Most popular case in the world:

“Travel Smart”metro Perth, Australia

TravelSmart

• Budget: for against the global warming – 1,000,000 A$ / １ 0,000 households

100A$ per household

• Schedule– 1997-1999 South Perth / ４００ hh– 1999-2000 South Perth / whole hh– 2001-2004 7 cities / 170,000hh– 2004-2005 3 cities / whole hh

Method• Target population

– 35,000 person, 15,200 hh• Project team : total membership of 20 people

– Rent a room at target area

• Period of project: 1 month• Procedure distribution a postcard -> consultation by telephone -> packing of c

ommunication tools -> distribution the tools through home visit -> re-visit

Taylor made bus timetable

Map including bus, train, shops, hospitals, post offices etc…

Free bus ticket

Special folder [Front face]

[Back face]

Taylor-made communication tools

Bus timetable

from home to office

Mapneighboring

Bus timetable

from office to home

Mapneighboring

the office

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

62.5

1986 1996 2006

= traffic surveytrend

Effect of Travel Smart

2000

60.0

Car modal share (%)

Change of car share

years

Result 1: Modal share

Increase of 10% (for 19 months+)

FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Before

After2nd After

Changes of number of bus users　　（ Cambridge city）

Result 2: Bus promotion

Also in Japan…

No. of TFP cases implemented in Japan

1 2 3 6 10 14

35

66

118

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007year

Num. of cases

TFP as psychological strategy to solve Social Dilemma

are widely implemented.

Average effect of TFP in Japan

The results of meta-analysis indicates…

• Average effect of TFP with control group using the experimental group are;

12.1% reduction of car use

38.6% increase of Public Transport use

These results indicates that persuasive communications designed based on behavioral-scientific knowledge regarding behavior change from defection into cooperation were

actually effective in the real world as well as laboratory experiments.

The results also imply that such scientific knowledge would be applicable in other types of real-world social dilemmas, if they were appropriately combined and implemented in large scale.

Therefore, it could be concluded that the

research to build bridge between science and policy are highly demanded.

Thank you for your attention.