Land use and global food security in 2050
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Transcript of Land use and global food security in 2050
Agrimonde-Terra
IFPRI policy seminar « Visioning the future of Food Security»
18 January 2017
Presentation of the collective work by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
Land use and global food security
in 2050
A FORESIGHT EXERCISE
Agrimonde-Terra : a collective work
Project team: M. de Lattre-Gasquet (Cirad, coordinator), Ch. Le Mouël (Inra, coordinator), O. Mora (Inra, organizer for scenario building), C. Donnars (Inra), P. Dumas (Cirad) & O. Rechauchère (Inra), in collaboration with M. Barzman (Inra), T. Brunelle (Cirad), A. Forslund (Inra), E. Marajo-Petitzon (Inra), S. Manceron (Inra), P. Marty (Inra) & C. Moreau (Cirad).
Thematic workshops (scientific coordinators and 80 researchers): (i) “Urban-rural relationships”: F. Aubert (Agro-Sup, Dijon) & F. Lançon (Cirad)(ii) “Structures of production”: J. Marzin (Cirad) & L. Piet (Inra)(iii) “Cropping systems”: D. Makowski (Inra), E. Malézieux & F. Maraux (Cirad) (iv) “Livestock systems” A. Ickowitz & P. Lecomte (Cirad) & P. Lescoat (APT)
Scenario Advisory Committee: A. Andersson Djurfeldt (LundUniversity, Sweden), L. Ben Becher (Synagri, Tunisia), M. Elloumi (Inrat, Tunisia), A. Faye (IPAR, Senegal), R. Guissou / Y. G. Bazie (Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Burkina Faso), H. Kray (World Bank, USA), J. Lewis (Terra Global Capital, USA), P. Meyfroidt (Louvain University, Belgium), M. Mueller (FAO, Italy), S. Msangui (IFPRI, USA), A. Onorati (International Planning Committee on Food Sovereignty, Italy), S. Parmentier (Oxfam, Belgium), A. Retière (Cap 2100, France), R. Sonnino (Cardiff University, UK), S. Treyer (IDDRI, France), D. van der Mensbrugghe (AgMIP, Purdue University, USA), J. Vervoort (CCAFS and Oxford University, UK), H. Zehni (IFAD, Italy).
From Agrimonde to Agrimonde-Terra
AgrimondeFeeding the World in 2050
2007-2010
Agrimonde-TerraLand Use and Food security in 2050
(started in 2013)
• Land (esp. pastures) and water
• Diets, malnutrition
• Climate change
• Energy: needs and transition
• Soils erosion and pollution
• Biodiversity loss
• 570 million farms
2 contrasted scenarios:- Agrimonde GO /- Agrimonde 1
The Agrimonde-Terra foresight process
ANTICIPATION
APPROPRIATION(PRO)-ACTION
To facilitate informed decision-makingand multi-stakeholder approach
about the futures of land use and food security by :
Drivers of land use and food security systems (global and regional) and alternative hypotheses about future changes
5 scenarios
GlobAgri, a quantitative platform
Scenario Advisory Committee
Presentations & discussions
Regional & national workshops
Decisions at international, regional and national levelsby differents actors
Methodological innovations1. A systemic & participatory approach combining
hypotheses in a coherent fashion
Methodological innovations 2. Combination of qualitative and quantitative
approaches
Quantitative hypotheses for 14 regionsPopulation of 9.7 billion
Economic growth; R&D; trade coeff.
Max cultivable area (Zabel et al, 2014); effect on yields(Müller and Robertson, 2014); EJ produced by biomass
Diet composition, daily calories availability
--
--
Shares of livestock systems in each sector’s production in regions; feed-to-output ratios by sector/system/ region
Yield gaps; cropping intensity
7
Illustration: Food diets 2050
Quantitative hypotheses: Average world in 2010 and in 2050 following the various food diets pathways.Regional differences
Situation in 2010
Transition to diets based on ultraprocessed products
Transition to diets based on animal products
Regional diversity of diets and food systems
Healthy diets based on food diversity
8
7.c. Wheat
7.f. Pulses
Source: Authors’ calculation from GlobAgri-AgT and GAEZ data
Cropping systems
Methodological innovations3. Building national scenarios with Ag-T and GlobAgri
Agroecological
land uses
Dualisme in
land uses
Virtual land Survive on
landCrop yields per hectare ++ + +++ -
Animal production ++ + + -
Use of inputs + +++ - -
Availability of local seeds +++ + - +
Employment +++ + - +
Imports’ dependance + ++ +++ -
Evolution of arable land + ++ - -
3. 4 scenariosbuilt and assessed
2. Hypotheses preparedby Tunisian stakholders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mill
ion
hec
tare
s
Wheat
Sunflowerseed
Sugar plants andproductsSoyabeans
Roots and Tuber
Rice
Rape andMustardseedPulses
Other plantproductsOther Oilcrops
Distribution of land use in North Africa with 4 Agrimonde-Terra scenarios. Source : GlobaAgri-AgT
4. Quantitative illustrations
1. Retrospective of landuse and food security in Tunisia (1960 – 2015) and discussion Consensus on past and on-going trends
Contexte
Coopération
mondiale et
durabilité
Régionalisation
et transition
énergétique
Développement
conventionnel
tiré par les
forces du
marché mondial
Fragmenta-
tion politique
et
économique
Changement
climatique
Changement
climatique
accéléré
Stabilisation du
changement
climatique
Gouvernance
en Tunisie
Politiques
volontaristes
de
développement
rural
Inertie des
problèmes
structurels
Extraversion de
l’économie
tunisienne
Faiblesse de
l’Etat et
pression des
groupes
d’intérêt
particulier
Régimes
alimentaires
Transition
alimentaire
impulsée par la
chaîne de
valeur
moderne
Sursaut
sanitaire
Régime
alimentaire
territorialisé
Dualisme
alimentaire
Relations
rural/urbain
Grande région
métropolitaine
et rupture
spatiale avec
les hinterlands
ruraux
Zones rurales
intégrés dans
des réseaux de
villes à travers
organisation
chaines de
valeur
alimentaire
Ménages multi-
localisés et
pluriactifs dans
un archipel rural-
urbain
Structures
d’exploitation
Structures
d’exploitations
résilientes
reliées aux
dynamiques
urbaines
Structures
autonomes
tout en étant
dépendantes
de grandes
entreprises
Structures qui
font production
simultanée de
biens et de
services
Structures
tournées vers
qualité
(marché de
niche à haute
valeur
ajoutée)
Projet agro-
financier
à durée
déterminée
Structures d’
exploitation
marginalisées
Systèmes
d’élevage
Elevage agro-
écologique sur
terres en
synergie avec
l’agriculture ou
l’urbanisation
Elevage
intensif
conventionnel
avec
alimentation
locale et
importée
Elevage intensif
conventionnel
avec
alimentation
importée (hors
sol)
Elevage sur
les terres
marginales
Systèmes de
culture
Régression /
Stagnation de
la production
Intensification
conventionnell
e
Agroécologie
Unexpected resultFive scenarios and impact on LU and FS
Metropolization Regionalization Healthy Communities Households
Narratives aboutdrivers and “howdid we get there”
Global markets, megacities and spatialdivide with rural areas, global food value chains, ultra-processed and animal-basedfoods. External feed-livestock,conventional intensific., Small farmers marginalized diet-related diseases
Supranational regionalblocs, medium-size cities linked with rural areas, regional food systems and diets, food sovereignty and subsidiarity,Re-location of livestock and crop systems,association of prod. and cons.
Global cooperation, climate changestabilization,international policieson health and nutrition, food diversificationCrop system diversification,agroecology, crop–livestock integration, soil carbon storage
Global fragmentationCrises: governance, economic, energy and ecology. Local communities, commons, agro-ecology.Collapse of cropping systems, subsistence farming.food insecurity
Globalization based on
non-State actor and
networks, value chain
disintermediation,
rural-urban mobility.
Agricultural
households: multi-
activity, multi-local,
non-farm activities.
Diverse farm structures
Agro. Potent. + 120 M ha + 60 M ha = initial + 60 M ha + 60 M ha
Access - - - + + + + + + - - + + + +
Distribution + specialization Diversifcation Diversification Diversification + High value pdts
IntensityObserved yieldsHarvest/cult area
- - -+ + +
- -+ +
= 2010+ + +
- - / + ++ + +
- / + ++ + +
Services - - - + + + + + + + + + / - - + + +
Availability + + + - - - / + + + + + + - - - / + + + =
Access - - + + + + + + - - - + + + / - - -
Utilization - - - + + + + + + + + / - - - / + +
Unexpected result2. The urgent need to change pathway
Land use changesin Mha
Qualitative assumptions (sustainable intensification for cropping livestock and agroecological livestock) Secure access to land. Stabilization of global warming, carbon storage, energy transition. Crops –livestock associations. Rediversification of crops and crop systems. Agricultural employment; ecosystem services provided by land
Qualitative hypothesesInsecure access to land dual system. Runaway climate. Globalized value chains.Few services providedby land. Little employment in agriculture.Lack of nutriments.Overweight and non-comunicable diet-related diseases.Inequalities.Poor biodiversity and low resilience of systems.
New insight about global food security
• No given pathway to food security while addressingmajor challenges urgent need for systemic and coherent transformation through multi-stakeholder cooperation.
• Each region / country will have its own pathway in relation to initial situation and in coherence with common responsibilities in facing global challenges.
• There are leverage points.
SSA: Leverage points for Healthy pathwayStates cooperate with variety of actors; norms / I.P rules for diversity &food quality. Firms see business opportunities. Evolution of multilateraltrade & more trade partners. Etc.
SSA: representation of SSA in international bodies; democratization; efficient administrations, less corruption; transparency and openness;systems and participatory research. Etc.
Carbon storage, hydropower, solar energy. Link between rural and carboncredits. Etc.
Food policies and education; consumer mobilization; increasedconsumption of fruits, vegetables, local cereals, pulses, animal products, but different in West Africa and ECS Africa; reconfiguring food value chains; policies and noms targeting key players and products of food systems. Etc.
Medium-sized cities; agri-food activities in rural areas; more transport and storage facilities. Etc.
Secure access to land, to credit, infrastructures, techniques & organizations; legal systems for cooperatives; connections to urban orinternational markets; added value based on collective action and voluntary quality standards; labour regulations; multi-activity. Etc.
Fight against trypanosomiases (through integrated means or identification of non-infected zones in peri-urban areas; livestock-crops associations; local feed; hardy animals; improved livestock management techniques. Etc
Diversity of varieties available; agroforestry, mixed cropping, associations, input substitution, labor intensive, small mechanization and irrigation. Etc.
Key lessons for researchers
• New research questions about:– Agricultural production systems / food and nutritional security.
– Governance / farming practices / land use / food security.
– Consumption habits & dietary transitions / food supply / farming practices / land use.
– Strategies of agrifood systems’ actors / trade / food security.
– Processes of evolution of farm structures
• Richness of dialogue (a) between scientists of differentdisciplines, and (b) between scientists and non-scientists.
For further information
http://www.cirad.fr/en/publications-resources/publishing/studies-and-documents/agrimonde-terra-foresight-study
http://institut.inra.fr/en/Objectives/Informing-public-policy/Foresight/All-the-news/Agrimonde-Terra-foresight-study
Articles
De Lattre-Gasquet M. and Treyer S. (2016). Agrimonde and Agrimonde-Terra: foresight approaches compared. IDS Bulletin, issue 47, No. 4.
Brunelle T., 2015. Vers une prospective des impacts du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire : les enseignements du 5ème rapport du GIEC. AE&S vol.5, n°1, juin 2015 : 13-22.
De Lattre-Gasquet M., Donnars c., Marzin j., Piet L., 2014. Quel(s) avenir(s) pour les structures agricoles ? Cahier Demetern°15 : 169-196.
Guyomard H., Schmitt B., 2014. Les terres agricoles, un enjeu pour la sécurité alimentaire de la planète à l’acuité variable selon les régions du monde. Cahier Demeter n°15, 101-118.
Lançon F., Mora O., Aubert F., 2014. L’extension urbaine à travers le monde : enjeux pour les villes et les campagnes.Cahier Demeter n°15,83-100.
Manceron S., Ben-Ari T., Dumas P., 2014. Feeding proteins to livestock: Global land use and food vs. feed competition. OCL 2014, 21 (4) D408.
Agrimonde-Terra
Land use and global food security
in 2050
A FORESIGHT EXERCISE
Thank you for your attention