Land Reform and the Wildlife Industry - WRSA · 2018-04-16 · EWC 6. Assisst where government does...

WRSAPolokwane

24 March 2018Theo Venter

Political and Policy Specialist

[email protected]

@theo_venter

Land Reform and the Wildlife Industry

The Politics of Paradox orWMC vs EWC

The Zuma Trap 2003

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

Very dynamic 1st Quarter in South Africa1. Ramaphosa Spark an immediate change.

2. ANC January 8th statement: clear that things will be different.

3. State of the Nation postponed – something is happening.

4. Zuma playing and old man’s game. He just had to go.

5. CR17 faction immediately started push back on policy change

6. EFF Motion on expropriation without compensation.

7. 2018 Budget showed extreme limitations, VAT 15%.

8. Better economic growth for 2018, than expected.

9. Moody’s kept sovereign credit rating at same level and changed it from

“Negative” to “Stable”.

Part One: How did

we get here?

- Nasrec & CR17

- Cabinet

- Factions still

active

- Role of political

opposition

Part Two: How

does it all fit?

- Transition

- Dominant Party

System

- Political

Dynamics

Part Three: Critical

uncertainties

- Virtuous Cycle

- Vicious Cycle

- Economy

- Land Reform

- Social cohesion

- Political process

Part Four: The way

forward

- The road to 2019

- Beyond 2019?

- Political realignment

- Four scenario

themes

South Africa towards 2019 and beyond

Theo Venter


[email protected]

@theo_venter

Local Issues

The global Cyril Spark….

WEF 2016 -2017 WEF 2017-2018

1. Restrictive labour regulations 1. Corruption

2. Inefficient government bureaucracy 2. Crime and theft

3. Inadequate supply of infrastructure 3. Government instability/ Coups

4. Policy instability 4. Tax rates

5. Inadequately educated workforce 5. Inefficient government bureaucracy

6. Crime and theft 6. Poor work ethic

7. Corruption 7. Restrictive labour regulations

8. Poor work ethic 8. Inadequately educated workforce

9. Access to finance 9. Inflation

10. Insufficient capacity to innovate 10. Access to finance

11. Tax rates 11. Policy instability

15. Government instability/ Coups 15. Foreign currency regulations

Doing business in South Africa (WEF Competitive Report)

South Africa falls with 14 places in WEF Competitive

Report 2017-2018

The Virtuous and Vicious Cycles

Vicious CycleCentrifugal forces dominate

(“Moving away from the centre”)

Virtuous CycleCentripetal forces dominate

(“Seeking the centre”)

The Virtuous and Vicious Cycles

Independent Judiciary

Stable financial system

Free media

Freedom to associate

Relative Goodinfrastructure

StablePolitical System

Good Banking system

Excellent Constitution

Good financial governance

Crime

Corruption

Restrictive labour regime

Weak economy

Education crisis

Policy uncertainty

High unemployment

Poverty

Government inefficiency

Ruling Party in disarry

Real GDP Growth and Political Constraint

Eighty-nine per cent (89%) of manufacturers view the political climate as a

constraint on business, reflecting public policy uncertainty and poor public

finances.

The paradox goes back to 2005….


Polokwane 2007


Uncertainty prevails….2017

From 2007 to 2017

Game changers during the ANC Conference

1. Announcement of free higher education outside the parameters

of the Heher Commission.

2. An extremely close victory by Cyril Ramaphosa. (CR17 2440

votes vs NDZ 2262 votes, a margin of 178 votes – 3,8% victory –

Consider more than 200 votes nullified in KZN and FS PEC’s and

branches.)

3. Election of Ace Magashule over Senzo Nchunu. No KZN

representtion in Top 6 since 1993! Largest ANC province.

Game changers during the ANC Conference

4. Expropriation without compensation as a policy (NDZ push-back)

Constitution will have to be amended. Political challenge.

CR17 faction immediately started push back on policy

change

No job losses.

Food security.

Impact on the economy.

Theo Venter


[email protected]

@theo_venter

Sensemaking

The Scenario Matrix

Fragmentedstate

Consolidateddemocracy

Optimal growth

Stagnation

Social polarisation

Social cohesion

Gefragmenteerdestaat

Gekonsolideerdedemokrasie

Stagnasie

Sosiale polarisasie

Sosiale kohesie

Optimale groei

Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019

The bad road

ScenarioCry the Beloved

Country – Alan Paton

The Scenario Matrix

Fragmentedstate


Optimal growth

Stagnation

Social polarisation

Social cohesion



Stagnasie

Sosiale polarisasie

Sosiale kohesie

Optimale groei

Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019The Ubuntu Scenario

Ubuntu –Lovemore Mbigi

The bad road



The Scenario Matrix

Fragmentedstate


Optimal growth

Stagnation

Social polarisation

Social cohesion



Stagnasie

Sosiale polarisasie

Sosiale kohesie

Optimale groei



The bad road



The Pretoria will

provide Scenario

Pretoria will provide and other myths - Clem Sunter

The Scenario Matrix

Fragmentedstate


Optimal growth

Stagnation

Social polarisation

Social cohesion



Stagnasie

Sosiale polarisasie

Sosiale kohesie

Optimale groei



The bad road



The Pretoria will

provide Scenario

Pretoria will provide and other myths - Clem Sunter

The Long Road

ScenarioThe Long Road to Freedom

– Nelson Mandela

Theo Venter


[email protected]

@theo_venter

Expropriation and the Wildlife Industry

Mechanistic view of the world

You must understanding the dynamics of change

You must be able to control the environment

You must have predictability

You must have stability

Current RealityWhere we are now

Current Future

Land reform as an inflection point:

A clear, single view of the future

Current Reality

Evolving Future

Change is more complex than we think - only the

parameters of change is knowable.

We assume the system is in dynamic equilibrium.

We have very little control over the external

environment.

The process is cyclical

Land reform as an inflection point:A limited set of possible future outcomes

Organismic view of the world

Current reality

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Social systems are extremely complex systems. We experience periods of stability followed by

periods of chaos. Systems seems to be in dynamic

disequilibrium Multiple outcomes the norm

rather than the exception

Land reform as an inflection point:A range of possible future outcomes

1. It is impossible to allow for land expropriation without compensation without affecting the rest of the economy. A measure which alters property rights in one sector sends a message that others may be due for the same fate.. To argue the change will only be introduced if the economy is unaffected is to say it won’t happen.

2. Political realities explain why the resolution was phrased in this way. One ANC faction wanted the constitutional change, the other did not. But the sceptics knew of widespread anger inside the ANC (and outside it) at the slow pace of land reform. Insisting that there was no need for a change would not have been credible – it would mean being seen to agree that whites should hold on to most productive land.

3. The only way out for the opponents was to agree on the principle but to hedge it with conditions which can’t be seen to endorse white privilege. The fact that they succeeded in including the conditions suggests that they are strong enough to prevent the change.

Caveats on land expropriation

4. What of the change virtually no-one noticed? This explains why a proposed change that would limit the power of traditional leaders over land passed largely unnoticed.

5. ANC briefing at the conference indicated that control over land should rest with communities, not chiefs. In principle, this should enable rural people to stop traditional leaders using land for their own purposes at their expense, which has brought “state capture” to the countryside and has triggered conflict.

6. The resolution may prove hard to implement because it may be difficult for rural people to hold traditional leaders to account. The Zulu King a point in case. It may never become law because traditional leaders may lobby against it.

Caveats on land expropriation (ii)

EWC Motion

That the House –

(1) notes that South Africa has a unique history of brutal dispossession

of land from black people by the settler colonial white minority;

(2) further notes that land dispossession left an indelible mark on the

social, political and economic landscape of the country, and has helped

design a society based on exploitation of black people and sustenance

of white domination;

(3) acknowledges that the African majority was only confined to 13%

of the land in South Africa while whites owned 87% at the end of the

apartheid regime in 1994;

(4) further acknowledges that the current land reform programme has

been fraught with difficulties since its inception in 1994, and that the

pace of land reform has been slow with only 8% of the land transferred

back to black people since 1994;

(5) acknowledges that the recent land audit claims that black people

own less than 2% of rural land, and less than 7% of urban land;

EWC Motion

(6) recognises that the current policy instruments, including the willing

buyer willing seller policy, and other provisions of Section 25 of the

Constitution may be hindering effective land reform.

(8) notes that in his State of the Nation Address, President Cyril

Ramaphosa, in recognising the original sin of land dispossession,

made a commitment that Government would continue the land reform

programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation,

making use of all mechanisms at the disposal of the state,

implemented in a manner that increases agricultural production,

improve food security and ensures that the land is returned to those

from whom it was taken under colonialism and apartheid and

undertake a process of consultation to determine the modalities of the

governing party resolution.

(9) further notes that any amendment to the Constitution to allow for

land expropriation without compensation must go through a

parliamentary process as Parliament is the only institution that can

amend the Constitution; and

EWC Motion

(10) with the concurrence of the NCOP instructs the Constitutional

Review Committee to

(a) review section 25 of the Constitution and other clauses where

necessary

(b) propose the necessary constitutional amendments where

applicable with regards to the kind of future land tenure regime

needed.

(e) report to the Assembly by no later than 30 August 2018.

(7) further recognises that this property clause makes it practically

impossible for those dispossessed of their land to get justice for

injustices perpetrated against them;

Point (7) deleted

What WRSA can consider to influence EWC

1. Be keenly aware of the political power plays and the potential risks

of falling in oppertunistc political traps;

2. Recognize the legitimate issues around land claims and unlck the

bottlenecks

3. Recognize the issue of land and dignity of the expropriation debate

4. Participate in the national forums where-ever and maintain unity of

mission and purpose.

5. Contribute to authoritative facts and figures – these are baseline

stuff

What WRSA can consider to influence EWC

6. Assisst where government does not have the capacity in a

cooperative and constructive way.

7. Promote small successes and exploit the low hanging fruit in the

wildlife industry.

8. Economic growth and tourism.

9. Job creation, skills transfer and employment in hunting and

conservation.

10. Expand the unique South African model of nature conservation.

What to expect from 2018-2019

1. All political eyes will be on the General Election of May 2019 (Chances of

early election very remote). Look beyond 2019.

2. Government finances will be extremely tight (2018 Budget).

3. Sovereign credit ratings will move sideways. Moody’s decided yesterday to

keep our rating in place and to move from Negative to stable.

4. South African economic growth may exceed 1.5% growth based on better

business climate and positive international signs in commodities, USA and

European economies. China growth ±5,4% and India ±7,0%.

5. State Owned Enterprises will have to consider partial privatization.

6. Pressure on Land Reform Policies (Expropriation without compensation)

constitute a huge political risk.

What to expect from 2018-20197. New content for Radical Economic Transformation will emerge in 2018.

ANC to return to the NDP.

8. Renewable energy will get boost, now that nuclear is regarded as

unaffordable.

9. There will be a renewed focus on more efficient national water

management policies and actions.

10. With Zuma gone, the domino’s will start falling (Cabinet just the first).

11. The re-engineering of the ANC (Zumafication vs Ramafication) will take

at least two years.

12. A sense of optimism in the business climate, balanced with consumer

fatigue and policy uncertainty.

Theo Venter


[email protected]

@theo_venter

Thank You

Baie Dankie

Land Reform and the Wildlife Industry - WRSA · 2018-04-16 · EWC 6. Assisst where government does...

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