Land cover change in national parks of the western...
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Land cover change in national parks of
the western U.S.
Robert E. Kennedy1, Zhiqiang Yang1, Justin Braaten1,
Peder Nelson1, Warren B. Cohen2, Eric Pfaff1
Landsat Science Team Meeting, January 19-21 2010
1 Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society,
Oregon State University2 USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April2
Take home messages
• To detect potential impacts of climate change
on vegetation we need to:
– Detect landcover changes that are both abrupt (fire,
etc.) and slow (drought, insects, encroachment)
– Distinguish between anthropogenic and naturalprocesses
– Use natural weather experiments at large scales to
improve inference based on robust hypotheses
• The Landsat archive can help in all three areas
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April3
Themes
• Abrupt and slow processes
• Attribution
• Climate cycles
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April4
Themes
• Abrupt and slow processes
• Attribution
• Climate cycles
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April5
Detecting abrupt and slow processes
Condition change
Time
Urban
“succession”
State Change Cyclical Change
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April6
Arbupt process: Harvest, fire
Project: Region 6
Effectiveness
Monitoring Program
for the Northwest
Forest Plan (NWFP)
Data: > 500
individual Landsat
scenes
TimeSync Interpretation
ongoing
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April7
Disturbance mapping: Time and magnitude
Year of disturbance Disturbance MagnitudeProject: Quantify trends in
harvest within Coastal Coho
ecologically-significant unit
Year of disturbance Disturbance Magnitude
LandTrendr
15713Not
Disturbed
1589Disturbed
Not
DisturbedDisturbed
Tim
eS
yn
c
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April8
Abrupt disturbance: Subtle and Not So Subtle
Harvest High
Harvest Low
Prior Harvest
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April9
Zion National Park
Bryce Canyon
National ParkFires
Elevation
Landscape dynamics on the Colorado Plateau
Disturbance associated
with the 2002 drought
Ongoing chronic
mortalityGrowth/Encroachment
Landsat captures a wide range of
disturbance and growth phenomena --
a map of the landscape as the
dynamic system we know it to be
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April10
Themes
• Abrupt and slow processes
• Attribution
• Climate cycles
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April11
Insect
Clearing
Conversion
Fire
Drought
Wind/Water
Snow
Natural vs. anthropogenic
Classifier
Patch size, shape
Landscape location
Pre-, post- condition
Sequence, duration
of change
Archive allows better or new information
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April12
Sequence, duration of change
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Change Labels:
A map of the
dynamic
landscape
The sequences
of change may
provide clues
about agent
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April13
First stabs at attribution
0
5
10
15
20
25
Protected
lands
Unprotected
lands
North Cascades Province: Percent
Area Disturbed 1985-2008
"Abrupt"
Slow mortality
Fire
Abrupt, but presumably
natural processes
Separate by duration and
known fire occurrence
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April14
We can bring more to bear…
High
magnitude
High
magnitude
Abrupt Slow
Use patch metrics and
landscape position
Add change labels
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April15
Insect
Clearing
Conversion
Fire
Drought
Wind/Water
Snow
Natural vs. anthropogenic
Classifier
Patch size, shape
Landscape location
Pre-, post- condition
Sequence, duration
of change
Archive allows better or new information
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April1616
NB
RB
rig
htn
ess
Gre
enn
ess
Wetn
es
s
LandTrendr: Temporal fitting
• Use segmentation of
one band to identify
“vertices” in time series
• Smooth between
vertices in other bands
• Result: “Pseudo-
images” with year-to-
year noise removed,
but actual change
retained
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April17
QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Temporally consistent “pseudoimages”
• Consistent
spectral space
minimizes effects
of noise,
phenology,
atmosphere, etc.
• Allows
development of
yearly landcover
maps
See “Features” block at landtrendr.forestry.oregonstate.edu
for more fun movies
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April18
Yearly classification: Fire effects
1999 2002 2006
Area of detail Loss of vegetative cover
PartialFull
Canopy removal
Track fire effects using class labels familiar to users
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April19
Yearly classification: Fire effects1994
1997
2007
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April20
Themes
• Abrupt and slow processes
• Attribution
• Climate cycles
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April21
Climate variability
• Observing potential effects relative to cyclic
weather years may improve inference
Maps show departure of PRISM data relative to 1978-2009 record
1995 2001
Warmer
Cooler
National parks and
wilderness areas
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April22
Eventual goal: Relate attribution to climate series
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1
10
100
1000
10000
tmin_1q
tmin_4q
Total Slow Mortality
North Cascades Ecoregion
Examine in terms of both overall trends and
year over year anomalies, compare to
Sierras, desert Southwest, etc.
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Kennedy et al. LCLUC 2010 April23
Take home messages
• To detect potential impacts of climate change
on vegetation we need to:
– Detect landcover changes that are both abrupt (fire,
etc.) and slow (drought, insects, encroachment)
– Distinguish between anthropogenic and naturalprocesses
– Use natural weather experiments at large scales to
improve inference based on robust hypotheses
• The Landsat archive can help in all three areas
![Page 24: Land cover change in national parks of the western U.S.lcluc.umd.edu/sites/default/files/lcluc_documents/... · Land cover change in national parks of the western U.S. Robert E. Kennedy](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe74423d854f44775706295/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Thank you.