Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty
Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate
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Transcript of Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate
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Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate
Galina Churkina
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, Germany
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Outline
• Introduction: Role of land ecosystems in the global carbon cycle
• Drivers behind the European carbon sink
• Challenges in modeling of land ecosystems
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Role of land ecosystems in the global carbon cycle
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year
Pg
C/y
r
Global anthropogenic emissions (CAntr)
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Global anthropogenic emissions (CAntr)
Remained in atmosphere (CAtm)
Absorbed by land and ocean
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Airborne Fraction (AF) = CAtm/CAntr ~ 0.4 in 1950-2000
2005: Jones and Cox, JRL
Trend in AF after 2000 -?
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Is AF increasing?
• Yes (Le Quere et al. Nature Geo, 2009)
• Earth’s carbon sinks are in decline
• No (Knorr, GRL, 2009, Francey et al. ICDC8, 2009)
• Earth’s carbon sinks are increasing proportionally to emissions
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CAtm = CAntr - CLand- COcean
Crucial role in C uptakeUnderestimated ?
2009: Le Quere et al.,Nature Geo
(Statistics) (Model) (Model)
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1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
(ice core)Observed (atmosphere)(ice core)Observed (atmosphere)(ice core)Observed (atmosphere) Management -?
Modeled with CLIMBER-BGC
2009: Churkina et al. GBC
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Drivers behind the European carbon sinkChurkina et al. 2010, Biogeosciences
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European ecosystems are a carbon sink of
~ 111±280 teragrams (Janssens et al. 2003)
~ 232±50 teragrams (Schulze et al. 2009)
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Why Europe is a carbon sink?
Atmospheric deposition of
nitrogen
Regrowing forests/
abandment of croplands
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Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen on land ecosystems of
Europe
2007: Dentener et al., GBC
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Tg
/yr
0.1Tg/yr
0.03Tg/yr
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Land cover conversion: Historical trends
2008: After Ramankutty et al., GBC
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mln
sq
km crop+pasture
forest
grass
-6900sq km /yr 5800 sq km/yr
10100 sq km/yr -7000 sq km/yr
-3200 sq km/yr1100 sq km/yr
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Surface Temperature of Europe
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C
0.02 degC/yr
0.01 degC/yr
2009: Chen et al., MPI-BGC Tech. Rep.
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Atmospheric CO2
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pp
m
1.11 ppm/yr
0.29 ppm/yr
After Etheridge et al, 1996 and Keeling & Whorf, 2005
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Rates of change in environmental drivers accelerated in the second half of the 20th century
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Land C balance and its drivers
C balance of Europe
ClimateAtmospheric CO2
and N deposition
Land Use (Conversion & Management)
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Land Use Change
Land cover # 1
Land cover # 1*
Land cover # 2
(Change)
(Management)
(Conversion)
Although modification is not always detectable, it may have strong effect on carbon balance (forest management, fertilization, etc)
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Land C balance and its drivers
C balance of Europe
ClimateAtmospheric CO2
and N deposition
Land Use (Conversion)
?
?
?
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Vegetation models include:C, H2O cycles and
Land use change– JULES– ORCHIDEE
N cycle– BIOME-BGC– OCN
More details in:
2010: Churkina et al., Biogeosciences
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One century of the European carbon balance
Atmospheric models: mean and uncertainty(2009:Schulze et al.)
Data compilation (2009: Schulze et al.)
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European mean temperature
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OCN
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Atmospheric CO2
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OCN
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Land cover conversion in Europe
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OCN
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Nitrogen deposition in Europe
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Tg
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OCN
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OCN
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Is response reasonable?
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Observed* JULES ORCHIDEE BIOME-BGC
OCN
* 2005: Ainsworth & Long, New Phyt.
NPP change in response to CO2 increase of 100 ppm
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Is response reasonable?
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Observed* BIOME-BGC
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* 2007: Elser et al. Ecol. Letters 2008: LeBauer & Treseder, Ecology
Modeled NPP change in response to N increase by 2-28
kgN/ha/yr
Obs. NPP change in response to N increase by 1-1000 kgN/ha/yr
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Conclusions• European ecosystems are a C sink
because of interactions between• CO2 fertilization effect• Climate• N deposition • land cover conversion
• C sink is likely underestimated because models do not simulate interactions of LUC and abiotic changes
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Challenges in land carbon sink estimates are related to …
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Land Conversion
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Land Management
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Extent of land use change
Luyssaert et al., in preparation
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Modeling of croplands
Gap between modeled and statistical yields of wheat. Averages for 1997-2003
Ma et al. sumbitted
ton per ha
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Urbanization
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?7.99 ? ?4.96
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Carbon Cycle of Berlin 1
2 2 11 3 3
2
2
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Data sources1 Federal Working Committee on Energy-Balances2 Berlin Senat 3 Statistics Agency Berlin-Brandenburg4 Tree inventories of Berlin‘s districts
Direct C release Indirect C release C storage C uptakeGottschalk et al., in preparation
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Land-atmosphere feedbacks