Lancaster County Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update
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Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update Advisory Committee Meeting #2 Lancaster County
Transcript of Lancaster County Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update
Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update
Advisory Committee Meeting #2
Lancaster County
Lancaster Metropolitan Transportation Plan 2
Today’s Road Map
• Stakeholder Engagement Update
• Review of Existing Transportation Conditions
• Review of Draft Revenue Forecast
• Summary and Review of Next Steps
Stakeholder Engagement Update
Lancaster Metropolitan Transportation Plan 4
Stakeholder Engagement Update
Focus Group Meetings
Confirmed Focus Group Meetings
• Active Transportation
• Amish Safety
• Emergency Response
• Municipal Officials
• Shippers & Business
• Transit and Human Services
• Transportation Program
• Underserved Populations
Review of Existing Conditions
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SocioeconomicsPopulation Change
450,000
460,000
470,000
480,000
490,000
500,000
510,000
520,000
530,000
540,000
550,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
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SocioeconomicsEnvironmental Justice: Poverty
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Road Network
Linear Miles by Ownership DVMT by Ownership
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Road Network
DVMT Trend from 2013 to 2017
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DV
MT (
Millio
ns)
Year
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Roadway NetworkFunctional Classification
Facility TypeLinear
Miles%
FHWA
Recommended
Urban System (%)
Interstate 30.6 0.8 1 – 3
Other
Freeway/Expres
sway
20.0 0.5 0 – 2
Other Principal
Arterial99.7 2.6 4 – 5
Minor Arterial 291.2 7.5 7 – 12
Major Collector 456.7 11.8 7 – 15
Minor Collector 234.3 6.1 7 – 15
Local Road 2,730.3 70.1 63 - 75
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Freight & Goods MovementTonnage of Freight Movement
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Roadway ConditionsOverall Pavement Conditions - % Poor
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
NHS, Non-Interstate Non-NHS, >2000 ADT Non-NHS, <2000 ADT
Lancaster State
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Roadway Safety
Total Vehicle Crashes by 5-Year Average
5,256 5,263
5,372
5,475
5,590
5,000
5,100
5,200
5,300
5,400
5,500
5,600
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Roadway Safety
Total Fatalities by 5-Year Average
46.4
49.0
46.8
45.845.6
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
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Bridges - State
Percent Poor Bridges (Lancaster and PA)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pe
rce
nt
Po
or
Year
Lancaster Penna
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Bridges - State
State Bridges Built by Decade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
< 1920s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Nu
mb
er
Decade Built
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Bridges - Local
Local Bridges Closed and Posted, 2015-19
62 61 6057 58
9 108
6 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# o
f B
rid
ge
sYear
Posted Closed
282 Local Bridges
266 Local Bridges
59 Poor Condition
15 County
Poor
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Performance Measures
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Performance Measures
20
Performance Measures
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Rail NetworkClass 1 and Short Line
Lancaster Metropolitan Transportation Plan
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Active TransportationBikeway and Pedestrian Safety
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
# o
f C
rash
es
Year
Pedestrian Crashes Bicycle Crashes
Bicyclist and Pedestrian Crashes
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Active TransportationBikeway and Pedestrian Safety
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
# o
f F
ata
liti
es
Year
Pedestrian Fatalities Bicycle Fatalities
Bicyclist and Pedestrian Fatalities
MTP Draft Revenue Forecast
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Revenue Forecast Overview
• MPOs must provide an estimate of funding received over the 25-year period of the MTP
• Revenue forecast is used to develop the fiscally-constrained Investment Plan
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Revenue Forecast: Assumptions
• PennDOT Financial Guidance documentation for the 2021 Program was used as base funding allocations
• The draft revenue forecast assumes:
• No increases in Federal revenue after the FAST Act expires in September 2020
• Funding levels in FFY 2032 are expected to carry forward through the plan horizon year of 2045
• No major funding increases from state actions (e.g., Act 44 of 2007 and Act 89 of 2013)
• No funding from discretionary “Spike” funding or competitive grant programs (e.g., MTF, GLG, etc.)
• A 3% rate of inflation
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Revenue Forecast
• Using these assumptions, Lancaster County has a long-range forecast of $1.33 billion in today’s dollars through the 2045 plan period. Adjusting for inflation, this amount comes to $925 million.
PeriodNominal Dollars
($000s)
Real Dollars
($000s)
TIP (2021-2024) $209,134 $189,464
TYP (2021-2032) $641,646 $523,287
MTP (2021-2045) $1,332,934 $925,788
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Revenue Forecast
Next Steps
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Next Steps
• Focus Group Meetings in September/October
• MetroQuest Survey
• Finalize Financial Plan
