Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf

7/29/2019 Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf

1/16

25 MARCH 2013

CONTRIBUTORS

Justin Fabo

Head of AustralianEconomics, Corporate &

Commercial

+61 2 9227 [email protected]

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS

ANZ RESEARCH

MINING AND RELATED EMPLOYMENT STABILISES, WHILE CONSTRUCTIONJOBS STRENGTHEN FURTHER; REDUNDANCIES DECLINE

The ABS released its quarterly detailed labour force statistics for the three months to

February late last week. Aggregate employment is estimated to have increased

by around 190,000 persons (or 1.7%) over the year to February. This

includes, however, a large 70,000 increase in employment in the month of February

2013, of which nearly half was due to sample rotation according to the ABS. For this

reason, some caution needs to be used when interpreting changes in

employment at the industry level over the three months to February and

over the year.

The key points of the detailed labour force release are below and are summarised in

Figures 1 and 2:

the number of involuntary job losers declined over the three months toFebruary after increasing significantly last year due to higher redundancies;

mining employment rose modestly over the three months to February, withgains in WA and Queensland offset by further weakness in coal mining

employment in NSW;

wholesale trade employment 4% of the total is estimated to haverisen by a sharp 40,000 persons over the three months to February and

by 65,000 persons, or 16%, over the year. Some of this strength is likely tobe statistical noise. Nevertheless, strong jobs growth over the year in motor

vehicle wholesaling and grocery, liquor & tobacco wholesaling appears consistent

with heightened activity in these sectors. A large share of the increase was in

NSW. Transport employment largely road transport also rose strongly

over the year to February, presumably related to strength in wholesale activity

but also mining-related activity;

growth in hospitality employment was also robust over the three months toFebruary and over the year. This appears to have been largely concentrated in

NSW and mostly in food & beverage services but is at odds with weak output

growth in this industry;

construction employment rose for the second consecutive quarter, broadlyin line with a modest pick-up in construction output;

public administration employment rose over the most recent three monthsand in a relatively broad-based fashion across states after significant prior

weakness. This seems at odds with the tight rein on government spending at the

federal and state levels. Health and education employment also continued to trend

strongly higher;

manufacturing employment fell sharply over the three months toFebruary, with weakness broadly based across states. This followed some

resilience in 2012 but over the past three years manufacturing employment has

been the weakest of all industries (Figure 3); and

business services employment declined modestly over the most recent threemonths and over the year. Presumably this partly reflects cost-cutting across arange of businesses.

The Appendix shows changes in industry-level employment for the major states overthe year to February.


2/16

Australian Economic Update / 25 March 2013 / 2 of 16

FIGURE 1. CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, YEAR TO FEBRUARY 2013

-40 0 40 80 120 160 200

TOTAL

Wholesale Trade

Accommodation and Food Services

Education and Training

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Health Care and Social Assistance

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Mining

Construction

Retail Trade

Arts and Recreation Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Administrative and Support Services

Financial and Insurance Services

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Public Administration and Safety

Other Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Manufacturing

'000 change in employment, year to February 2013 Source: ABS

FIGURE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA FEBRUARY 2013

000s '000 % '000 % % y/y%

Agriculture 321.2 2.8 3.4 1.1 -15.5 -4.6 -2.5 -2.7

Mining 265.7 2.3 2.4 0.9 15.1 6.0 9.6 4.9

Manufacturing 941.4 8.1 -30.8 -3.2 -28.9 -3.0 -0.7 -1.4

Utilities 137.1 1.2 -8.5 -5.8 -18.5 -11.6 5.0 -16.2

Construction 1,026.6 8.8 16.5 1.6 14.1 1.4 3.0 2.5

Wholesale trade 462.8 4.0 39.5 9.3 65.5 16.5 0.4 14.3

Retail trade 1,217.7 10.5 -4.2 -0.3 10.4 0.9 1.5 -0.7

Hospitality 800.1 6.9 15.6 2.0 58.3 7.9 2.0 4.8

Transport & postal 605.1 5.2 4.3 0.7 55.5 10.1 2.4 9.1

IT, media & telecomms 217.4 1.9 -4.2 -1.9 -5.9 -2.7 -0.1 -2.1

Finance & insurance 412.1 3.5 -7.0 -1.7 -12.9 -2.8 1.7 -5.5

Rental & real estate 199.3 1.7 2.5 1.3 -25.5 -11.4 3.0 -6.9

Professional services 919.1 7.9 15.1 1.7 31.8 3.6 3.6 5.2

Administrative services 395.8 3.4 -3.4 -0.9 -8.2 -2.0 2.0 -1.4

Public admin. 722.4 6.2 25.8 3.7 -19.2 -2.6 3.0 -2.7

Education 924.8 8.0 26.0 2.9 54.8 6.7 2.9 8.4

Health 1,393.8 12.0 22.5 1.6 46.3 3.4 4.1 1.8

Arts & recreation 200.6 1.7 -10.3 -4.9 -1.8 -0.6 3.1 1.6

Other services 453.4 3.9 -2.8 -0.6 -23.8 -5.0 0.8 -6.5

All In dust ries 11,616.4 100.0 102.5 0.9 191.4 1.7 2.1 1.4

% of total

Employment (sa) Employment Aggregate

hours worked

Average annual

growth since

2000y/y change

Employment

q/q change

Source: ABS

FIGURE 3. CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, THREE YEARS TO FEBRUARY 2013

-80 -40 0 40 80 120 160 200


Mining







Construction

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade





Financial and Insurance ServicesOther Services


Manufacturing

'000 change in employment over past 3 years

Source: ABS


3/16


REDUNDANCIES DECLINE

After a clear increase in the number of redundancies in 2012, the number of

unemployed classified as involuntary job losers declined over the threemonths to February (Figure 4). By state, most of the fall in involuntary job losers

was centred in Queensland (Figure 5). This possibly reflects that most of the public-

sector job cuts announced in mid 2012 had been completed by the end of the year.

FIGURE 4. REASONS UNEMPLOYED ARE LOOKING FOR FULL-TIME WORK

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Shareoftotalpersons

lookingforfull-timework

Involuntary job loser Voluntary job leaver Former worker Never worked

Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 5. NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED* INVOLUNTARY JOB LOSERS BY STATE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

000s

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

000s

NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas ACT NT * Seeking full-time employment

Sources: ABS, ANZ

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY: SELECTED HIGHLIGHTS

MINING EMPLOYMENT STABILISES

Mining employment appears to be recovering slowly after a weak patch last

year amid sharply lower commodity prices. ABS data suggest that mining

employment in Queensland rebounded to a new high as coal mining employment

recovered (Figures 6 & 7). Mining employment in Western Australia increased

modestly over the three months to February despite a further fall in metal ore

mining employment (the rise appears to have been in exploration and other mining

services).


4/16


In contrast, and consistent with anecdotal evidence, mining employment in NSW,

particularly coal mining jobs, continued to fall over the three months to

February.

Looking ahead, the relatively high labour costs in mining suggests that growth in

mining employment is unlikely to match that in the period leading up to mid 2012

(Figure 8).

FIGURE 6. MINING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Employedpersons(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)

Employedper

sons(000s,sa)

Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 7. COAL AND METAL ORE MINING EMPLOYMENT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00 01 03 04 06 07 09 10 12 13 01 02 04 05 07 08 10 11 13

Numberofemployed,seasonallyadjusted

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

Numberofemployed,seasonallyadjusted

Coal mining employment Metal ore mining employment

NSW

Western

Australia

Queensland

TotalTotal

Sources: ABS, ANZ


5/16


FIGURE 8. WAGES AS A PER CENT OF SALES REVENUE

7

10

13

16

19

22

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Wagesas%o

fnominalsales

Mining Non-mining Total Source: ABS

Employment in some sectors that have benefited from the mining investment

boom remained strong over the three months to February. Employment in

architectural, engineering & technical services bounced back, generating most of the

gain in overall professional, scientific and technical services employment over that

period (Figure 9). By state, this strength was most pronounced in WA and Victoria but

also picked up in other states, including South Australia and Tasmania (Figure 10).

Likewise, employment growth in road transport has been very strong but this

may temper due to the lagged effects of weaker output growth in that industry

(Figure 11).FIGURE 9. PROFESSIONAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BREAKDOWN, AUSTRALIA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

000s,seasonallyadjusted

Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services Legal and Accounting ServicesManagement and Related Consulting Services Computer System Design and Related ServicesOther

Sources: ABS, ANZ


6/16


FIGURE 10. ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

000s,seasonallyadjusted

NSW Victoria Queensland WA Other

Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 11. ROAD TRANSPORT EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT GROWTH

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

y/y%c

hange

Road transport employment Road transport output (forward 5 qtrs, trend)

Sources: ABS, ANZ

Other business services employment has been soft, in part likely reflecting a

keen focus on costs among businesses in general. Over the year to February, much of

the weakness in finance & insurance employment was at depository institutions, whilethe contraction in rental & real estate employment was concentrated inproperty

managers which had grown strongly over the previous year. The contraction in other

services employment over the year to February was more than accounted for by a

fall in machinery & equipment repair & maintenance, which could be partly related to

cost cutting in the mining industry.

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT RISES FURTHER

Construction employment rose further over the three months to February,

broadly in line with a modest pick up in building output (Figure 12).

Construction employment rose further in Victoria after a surprisingly large increase

over the three months to November, while Queensland also recorded a solid increase

(Figure 13). In contrast, construction employment in NSW, South Australia andTasmania remained relatively subdued.


7/16


Despite weak building construction employment in recent years,

construction jobs tied to the mining investment boom have grown strongly.

This can be seen in strong growth in construction services (until recently) and

construction not further defined (nfd) employment (Figure 14).

FIGURE 12. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

$billions,realoutputperquarter

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

000s

Private building work done (real, LHS) Public building work done (real, LHS)

Construction employment (RHS) Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 13. CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

E

mployedpersons(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland WA SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)

Employedpersons(000s,sa

)

Sources: ABS, ANZ


8/16


FIGURE 14. CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT BY SUB-SECTOR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

000s,4quarteraverage

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

000s,4quarteraverage

Construction nfd (LHS) Building construction (LHS)

Heavy and Civil Engineering (LHS) Construction services (RHS) Source: ABS

PUBLIC-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SHOWS SURPRISING REBOUND

Public administration and safety employment was estimated to have risen by

around 25,000 persons over the three months to February but remained

lower in year-ended terms. The recent strength was purportedly in the large states

of Victoria, NSW and Queensland but this is difficult to gel with the tight rein on public

spending (Figure 15). However, employment in hospitals appears to have declined

noticeably over the six months to February, possibly reflecting government cost

cutting.

Health and education employment, which have been generally much lessaffected by tighter government finances, continued to trend strongly higher

over the three months to February (Figure 16).

Employment in health and education now accounts for one if five jobs in

Australia and has risen much faster than employment in other industries for an

extended period. The trend increase in health employment can clearly be seen across

all states (Figure 17).

FIGURE 15. PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

50

100

150

200

250

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

8

16

24

32

40


NSW Victoria Queensland WA

ACT SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ


9/16


FIGURE 16. HEALTH & EDUCATION VS OTHER INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

January2005=100

Education & training Health Care and Social Assistance Other industries Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 17. HEALTH EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

100

200

300

400

500

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

8

16

24

32

40

Employedpersons

(000s,sa)

NSW Victoria Queensland SA

WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)

Employedp

ersons(000s,sa)

Sources: ABS, ANZ

MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FALLS AFTER SHOWING SUPRISING RESILIENCE TO

HIGHER AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Manufacturing employment declined by around 30,000 persons over thethree months to February, with declines recorded across most states

(Figure 18). Manufacturings share of aggregate employment had remained relatively

steady over the prior year despite significant pressure on parts of the industry from

the high Australian dollar (Figure 19).


10/16


FIGURE 18. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32


NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA Tasmania (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ

FIGURE 19. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA

0

5

10

15

20

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Percent

oftotalemployment

60

65

70

75

80

Percentoftotalem

ployment

Agriculture (LHS) Construction (LHS) Mining (LHS)

Manufacturing (LHS) Services (RHS)

Source: ABS

RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT REMAINED WEAK BUT WHOLESALE TRADE AND

ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN STRONG

Retail trade employment fell in the most recent three months and rose only

modestly over the year to February (Figure 20). Reflecting consumption patterns

at the state level, most of the strength in retail employment has been in Western

Australia (Figure 21). By sub-sector, falls in employment in specialised food, electrical

goods, hardware and clothing retailing have been offset by gains in supermarket,

department store, non-store and other retailing.


11/16


FIGURE 20. RETAIL TRADE VS RETAIL SALES VOLUMES

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Retail trade employment Real retail sales, 12m forward

y/y%c

hange

Source: ABS

FIGURE 21. RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

100

200

300

400

500

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

8

16

24

32

40


NSW Victoria Queensland SA

WA Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)

Employed

persons(000s,sa)

Sources: ABS, ANZ

Despite the softness in retail trade employment,jobs growth has been much

stronger in the wholesale trade industry. Some of this strength, however, is

likely to be statistical noise as it is difficult to fathom how a sector that accounts

for 4% of total employment could create around one-third of aggregate employment

growth over the year. While strong growth in motor vehicle and grocery wholesale

employment is consistent with robust output growth in these sub-sectors, it is difficult

to explain the strength in timber and hardware wholesaling employment (Figure 22).

It is possible that the expansion of major hardware chains in Australia has supported

growth in hardware at the wholesale level, timber wholesaling would surely be feeling

the adverse effects of weakness in the detached housing market. Strong growth in

wholesale trade not further definedemployment may be related to strong online

retail sales growth.


12/16


FIGURE 22. WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SUB-SECTOR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Timber andHardware

Goods

Wholesaling

Motor Vehicleand Motor

Vehicle Parts

Wholesaling

Grocery, Liquorand Tobacco

Product

Wholesaling

Pharmaceuticaland Toiletry

Goods

Wholesaling

WholesaleTrade, not

further defined

OtherChangeinemploymentoveryeartoFebruary2013,000s

Source: ABS

Employment also increased sharply in the accommodation & food services

industry, particularly in NSW, in the most recent three months and over the year

(Figure 23). Year-ended growth, however, is overstated due to a temporary fall in

employment in February 2013 (which looks like statistical noise) but even in trend

terms appears out of line with weak output growth in the industry (Figure 24). The

pattern in employment in the industry has been mixed, however, across states. In

Queensland, for example, the relative weakness in tourism in that state has meant

that growth in hospitality employment has slowed sharply in recent years relative to

earlier periods.

FIGURE 23. ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES EMPLOYMENT BY STATE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

12

24

36

48

60

72


NSW Victoria Queensland WA

SA (RHS) Tasmania (RHS) ACT (RHS) NT (RHS)


Sources: ABS, ANZ


13/16


FIGURE 24. ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES OUTPUT & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

y/y%c

hange

Hospitality output growth Hospitality employment growth (trend)

Source: ABS


14/16


APPENDIX CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY STATE, YEAR TO FEBRUARY 2013

NSW

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

TOTAL


Wholesale Trade





Manufacturing




Mining



Other Services



Retail Trade

Construction


'000 change in employment over the year to February

Victoria

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

TOTAL

Retail Trade


Construction







Wholesale Trade


Mining





Other Services


Manufacturing


Queensland

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Construction


TOTAL


Mining

Other Services

Wholesale Trade








Retail Trade




Manufacturing



South Australia

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10


Wholesale Trade




Mining



TOTAL



Construction



Retail Trade

Other Services



Manufacturing



Western Australia

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

TOTAL


Retail Trade




Mining



Wholesale Trade




Construction




Manufacturing

Other Services



Tasmania

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5


Manufacturing


Mining



TOTAL

Financial and Insurance ServicesElectricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services


Other Services





Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade



Construction



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Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf

Documents

Transcript of Labour Force Feb 2013 quarterly detail.pdf