Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley...

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By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region

Transcript of Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley...

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By  Robert  Clifford    Policy  Analyst  New  England  Public  Policy  Center  Federal  Reserve  Bank  of  Boston          A  joint  project  of  Commonwealth  CorporaBon    and  New  England  Public  Policy  Center  of  the    Federal  Reserve  Bank  of  Boston    

Labor Market Trends in the!Pioneer Valley Region!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

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Motivation!

§  Promote  beLer  public  policy  by  conducBng  objecBve  research  and  analysis  of  regional  economic/policy  issues.  

 

§  Understand  the  long-­‐term  labor  force  challenges  facing  the  regional  labor  markets  in  MassachuseLs.  

§  Provide  detailed  data  on  labor  supply  and  demand  trends  to  support  workforce  development  policy  discussions  at  a  local  level.  

§  Build  off  the  labor  market  work  of  Harrington  and  Fogg  (2008)  and  the  demographics  research  of  Sasser  ModesBno  (2009,  2010).  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   2  

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The Pioneer Valley Region!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   3  

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Summary!

§  AXer  nearly  a  decade  of  declining  employment,  Pioneer  Valley  is  recovering  at  a  modest  pace,  but  conBnues  to  have  one  of  the  highest  unemployment  rates  statewide.  

§  An  aging  workforce,  declines  in  younger  workers,  and  a  stagnant  populaBon  will  force  the  region  to  confront  demographic  challenges  sooner  than  other  regions.  

§  Despite  gains  in  the  educaBonal  aLainment  of  its  labor  force  in  the  past  decade,  Pioneer  Valley  sBll  has  the  highest  share  of  individuals  with  only  a  High  School  Degree  or  less.  

§  Addressing  the  barriers  to  employment  facing  the  region’s  unemployed,  parBcularly  among  the  young  and  less  educated,  is  key  to  the  economic  vitality  of  the  region.    

     

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   4  

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Outline!

§  Labor  Market  Performance  

§  Labor  Supply  

§  Labor  Demand  

§  The  Pipeline:  EducaBonal  Supply  of            Post-­‐Secondary  Degrees  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   5  

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Labor Market Performance!

§  NaBonal  and  State  Employment  Trends  

§  Performance  of  Regional  Labor  Markets  

§  Employment  Trends  by  Industry  in                      Pioneer  Valley  and  MassachuseLs  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   6  

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Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels of the early 2000’s.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

0.94  

0.96  

0.98  

1.00  

1.02  

1.04  

1.06  

Q1-­‐2000   Q1-­‐2001   Q1-­‐2002   Q1-­‐2003   Q1-­‐2004   Q1-­‐2005   Q1-­‐2006   Q1-­‐2007   Q1-­‐2008   Q1-­‐2009   Q1-­‐2010   Q1-­‐2011   Q1-­‐2012  

Total  Non-­‐Agricultural  Employment,  Q1-­‐2000  to  Q3-­‐2012  

NBER Recession United States Massachusetts

     Through  Q3-­‐2012  Index  2000=1  

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

7  

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Employment changes in Pioneer Valley mirrored statewide trends over most of the past decade, but trailed in the recovery.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐2.2%  

-­‐4.0%  

2.2%  

-­‐8.0%  

-­‐6.0%  

-­‐4.0%  

-­‐2.0%  

0.0%  

2.0%  

4.0%  

6.0%  Total  Growth  Rates  in  Employment  

Q1  2001-­‐Q1  2008  Q4  2007-­‐Q4  2009  Q4  2009-­‐Q4  2011  

Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

8  

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The region’s share of employment in Education & Health Services is larger than in any other regional labor market.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

33.2%  27.2%   24.3%  

19.2%  

18.3%   20.7%  

7.6%  15.2%   13.6%  

9.6%   9.8%   10.5%  

9.5%   7.9%   9.1%  

4.7%   6.5%   5.9%  4.7%   4.3%   3.5%  6.1%   4.1%   5.8%  

3.9%   3.9%   4.5%  1.5%   2.8%   2.2%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States  

Employment  DistribuBon  by  Supersector,  Q4  2011  InformaBon  

ConstrucBon  

Other  services  

Government  

Financial  AcBviBes  

Manufacturing  

Leisure  &  Hospitality  

Professional  &  Business  Services  Trade,  TransportaBon  &  UBliBes  EducaBon  &  Health  Services  

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 9  

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Between recessions, the state and region had similar employment trends across most industries.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐30.0%   -­‐20.0%   -­‐10.0%   0.0%   10.0%   20.0%   30.0%   40.0%  

Other  Services  Health  Care  &  Social  Assistance  

Arts,  Entertainment  &  RecreaBon  EducaBonal  Services  

Professional  &  Technical  Services  AccommodaBon  &  Food  Services  

ConstrucBon  Financial  AcBviBes  

UBliBes  Government  

TransportaBon  &  Warehousing  Wholesale  Trade  

Retail  Trade  AdministraBve  &  Support  Services  

InformaBon  Management  of  Companies  &  Enterprises  

Manufacturing  

Employment  Changes,  Q1-­‐2001  to  Q1-­‐2008  

MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 10  

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Similarly, in the Great Recession, the region and state had comparable employment changes across most industries.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐25.0%   -­‐20.0%   -­‐15.0%   -­‐10.0%   -­‐5.0%   0.0%   5.0%   10.0%  

UBliBes  Other  Services  

Arts,  Entertainment  &  RecreaBon  Health  Care  &  Social  Assistance  

Government  AccommodaBon  &  Food  Services  

EducaBonal  Services  Financial  AcBviBes  

Retail  Trade  Professional  &  Technical  Services  

Management  of  Companies  &  Enterprises  Wholesale  Trade  

TransportaBon  &  Warehousing  InformaBon  

AdministraBve  &  Support  Services  Manufacturing  ConstrucBon  

Employment  Changes,  Q4-­‐2007  to  Q4-­‐2009  

MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 11  

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Strong employment gains in a few industries were mitigated by losses and slow growth among others in Pioneer Valley.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐10.0%   -­‐5.0%   0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%  

AdministraBve  &  Support  Services  ConstrucBon  

Arts,  Entertainment,  &  RecreaBon  Other  Services  

Professional  &  Technical  Services  Wholesale  Trade  

Retail  Trade  UBliBes  

EducaBonal  Services  AccommodaBon  &  Food  Services  Health  Care  &  Social  Assistance  

Government  Management  of  Companies  &  Enterprises  

TransportaBon  &  Warehousing  Manufacturing  

Financial  AcBviBes  InformaBon  

Employment  Changes,  Q4-­‐2009  to  Q4-­‐2011  

MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 12  

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Labor Supply!

§  ResidenBal  PopulaBon  Changes  and  CharacterisBcs  

§  Age  and  EducaBon  of  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  §  Trends  and  CharacterisBcs  of  the  Unemployed  

§  CommuBng  PaLerns  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   13  

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Pioneer Valley’s total residential population was essentially unchanged over the course of the last decade.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐0.1%  

0.1%  

-­‐1.5%  

-­‐1.0%  

-­‐0.5%  

0.0%  

0.5%  

1.0%  

1.5%  Total  ResidenBal  PopulaBon  Growth  

Annual  Growth  Rate  2000  to  2005-­‐2007  

Annual  Growth  Rate  2005-­‐2007  to  2008-­‐2010  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.

14  

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While the total population was stagnant, the region saw growing numbers of immigrants and minorities in the past decade.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

Demographic  CharacterisBcs  of  Pioneer  Valley  

15  

    2000   2008-­‐2010    Absolute  Change    

Annual  Growth  Rate  

 Resident  PopulaBon   680,610   679,768   -­‐842   0.0%    Gender                      Male     326,958   325,509   -­‐1,449   0.0%    Female     353,652   354,259   607   0.0%    NaBvity                      NaBve  Born   600,950   586,125   -­‐14,825   -­‐0.3%    Immigrant     79,660   93,643   13,983   1.8%    Race/Ethnicity                      White,  non-­‐Hispanic   547,634   515,440   -­‐32,194   -­‐0.7%    Black,  non-­‐Hispanic   35,871   37,056   1,185   0.4%    Asian,  non-­‐Hispanic   10,919   15,118   4,199   3.7%    Hispanic     74,134   100,538   26,404   3.4%    Other  race,  non-­‐Hispanic   12,052   11,616   -­‐436   -­‐0.4%  

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The labor force in Pioneer Valley increased in age over the past decade and is older than the state’s labor force.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

14.9%   13.7%   12.9%   13.2%   15.2%   14.2%  

20.0%   18.2%   23.3%   20.2%  22.7%   21.5%  

26.8%  21.0%  

27.0%  22.0%  

26.8%  22.3%  

23.9%  

24.7%  

22.4%  23.9%  

21.8%  23.3%  

10.8%  17.6%  

10.8%  15.8%  

10.2%  14.7%  

3.6%   4.8%   3.6%   4.7%   3.3%   4.0%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

2000                                                          Pioneer  Valley  

2008-­‐2010      

      2000                                                              MassachuseLs  

2008-­‐2010            

        2000                                                            United  States  

2008-­‐2010                

Age  DistribuBon  of  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  

Age  65+  

Age  55-­‐64  

Age  45-­‐54  

Age  35-­‐44  

Age  25-­‐34  

Age  16-­‐24  

16  

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Pioneer Valley was the only region to see a decline in the number of 16-24 year olds in the labor force in the past decade.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐0.5%  

-­‐0.6%  

-­‐2.2%  

0.8%  

6.1%  

3.6%  

1.3%  

-­‐0.6%  

-­‐1.3%  

1.7%  

5.4%  

3.9%  

-­‐3.0%   -­‐2.0%   -­‐1.0%   0.0%   1.0%   2.0%   3.0%   4.0%   5.0%   6.0%   7.0%  

Age  16-­‐24  

Age  25-­‐34  

Age  35-­‐44  

Age  45-­‐54  

Age  55-­‐64  

Age  65+  

Annual  Growth  in  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  by  Age,  2000  to  2008-­‐2010  

MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 17  

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The region’s labor force has the highest concentration of individuals with a High School Degree or less in the state.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

12.5%   10.1%   11.5%   8.7%  15.5%   11.8%  

28.5%   28.0%   24.3%  23.5%  

26.9%  26.3%  

21.4%  21.0%  

19.1%  18.7%  

23.9%  24.0%  

9.6%  10.3%  

7.9%  7.9%  

7.2%  8.3%  

16.6%   18.4%  22.3%  

24.4%  

17.2%   19.1%  

11.5%   12.1%   14.8%   16.8%  9.4%   10.5%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

2000                                                  Pioneer  Valley  

2008-­‐2010      

      2000                                                              MassachuseLs  

2008-­‐2010            

        2000                                                            United  States  

2008-­‐2010                

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  

Master's  degree  or  more  

Bachelor's  degree  

Associate's  degree  

Some  College,  no  degree  

High  School  

Less  than  High  School  

18  

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Educational attainment has increased considerably in the past decade, but Pioneer Valley has trailed Massachusetts.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐1.9%  

0.3%  

0.3%  

1.3%  

1.7%  

1.1%  

-­‐2.2%  

0.6%  

0.7%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

2.4%  

-­‐3.0%   -­‐2.0%   -­‐1.0%   0.0%   1.0%   2.0%   3.0%  

Less  than  High  School  

High  School  

Some  College,  no  degree  

Associate's  Degree  

Bachelor's  Degree  

Master's  Degree  or  more  MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Annual  Growth  in  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  by  EducaBon,  2000  to  2008-­‐2010  

19  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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The combination of lower levels of educational attainment and an aging population present challenges for Pioneer Valley.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

0   5,000   10,000   15,000   20,000   25,000   30,000  

Less  than  High  School  

High  School  

Some  College  

Associate's  Degree  

Bachelor's  Degree  

Master's  Degree  or  more  

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  the  Civilian  Labor  Force  in  Pioneer  Valley  

Age  55-­‐64  

Age  45-­‐54  

Age  35-­‐44  

Age  25-­‐34  

20  

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In the Great Recession the unemployment rate reached 9.0 percent in Pioneer Valley, third highest among all regions.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

0.0%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

3.0%  

4.0%  

5.0%  

6.0%  

7.0%  

8.0%  

9.0%  

10.0%  

2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Unemployment  Rates,  2000  to  2011  

United  States  MassachuseQs  Pioneer  Valley  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.

21  

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The unemployed in Pioneer Valley are disproportionately younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

13.7%  

31.1%  18.2%  

19.8%  21.0%  

17.6%  24.7%  

19.4%  

17.6%  9.2%  

4.8%   2.9%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

Civilian  Labor  Force   Unemployed  

Age  DistribuBon  

Age  65+   Age  55-­‐64   Age  45-­‐54  

Age  35-­‐44   Age  25-­‐34   Age  16-­‐24  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

10.1%  24.4%  

28.0%  

35.5%  21.0%  

20.5%  10.3%  

5.1%  18.4%  

10.6%  12.1%  

3.9%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

Civilian  Labor  Force   Unemployed  

EducaBon  DistribuBon  

Master's  degree  or  more   Bachelor's  degree  Associate's  degree   Some  College,  no  degree  High  School   Less  than  High  School  

22  

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Compared to other labor markets, Pioneer Valley has strong commuting ties to Connecticut but weak ties with other regions.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 23  

     Number     Percent  of  Total  

Total  number  of  employed  persons  living  in  Pioneer  Valley…   324,026   100.0%  …that  work  in:          

Pioneer  Valley   277,172   85.5%  Central  Mass   8,718   2.7%  Berkshire   5,431   1.7%  Other  parts  of  MassachuseLs   4,714   1.5%  ConnecBcut   23,550   7.3%  Vermont   1,337   0.4%  New  York   1,032   0.3%  Other  places  outside  MassachuseLs   2,072   0.6%              

Total  number  of  persons  working  in  Pioneer  Valley…   302,831   100.0%  …that  live  in:          

Pioneer  Valley   277,172   91.5%  Central  Mass   5,902   1.9%  Berkshire   2,762   0.9%  Other  parts  of  MassachuseLs   2,309   0.8%  ConnecBcut   10,797   3.6%  New  York   1,039   0.3%  Vermont   832   0.3%  Other  places  outside  MassachuseLs   2,018   0.7%              

 Net  in-­‐commuBng     -­‐21,195   -­‐  

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Labor Demand!

§  EducaBonal  ALainment  of  Employed  

§  EducaBonal  ALainment  and  ComposiBon  of  Industries  and  OccupaBons  

§  Demand  for  Workers  with  Post-­‐Secondary  EducaBon  Pre-­‐Recession  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   24  

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The educational attainment of those employed in Pioneer Valley is closer to the nationwide workforce than statewide.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

11.7%   8.6%   10.6%   7.6%  14.4%   10.7%  

28.4%  27.5%   24.0%  

22.7%  

26.7%  25.7%  

21.5%  21.0%   19.2%  

18.6%  

24.1%  24.0%  

9.3%  10.7%  

8.1%  8.2%  

7.3%  8.5%  

17.0%   19.3%  22.9%  

25.4%  

17.7%   19.9%  

12.1%   13.0%   15.1%   17.5%  9.7%   11.2%  

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

2000                                                          Pioneer  Valley  

2008-­‐2010      

      2000                                                              MassachuseLs  

2008-­‐2010            

        2000                                                            United  States  

2008-­‐2010                

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  Individuals  Employed  in  the  Region  

Master's  degree  or  more  

Bachelor's  degree  

Associate's  degree  

Some  College,  no  degree  

High  School  

Less  than  High  School  

25  

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A growing number of employees have an Associate's Degree or higher, while a shrinking number have lower levels of education.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

-­‐3.3%  

-­‐0.3%  

-­‐0.2%  

1.6%  

1.5%  

0.9%  

-­‐3.3%  

-­‐0.3%  

0.0%  

0.5%  

1.5%  

2.0%  

-­‐4.0%   -­‐3.0%   -­‐2.0%   -­‐1.0%   0.0%   1.0%   2.0%   3.0%  

Less  than  High  School  

High  School  

Some  College,  no  degree  

Associate's  degree  

Bachelor's  degree  

Master's  degree  or  more  MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Annual  Growth  in  the  Employed  by  EducaBon,  2000  to  2008-­‐2010  

26  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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Industries in Pioneer Valley have smaller shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, but larger shares with “middle-skills”.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

27.2%  

15.8%  

47.5%  

51.6%  

38.2%  

19.8%  

35.2%  

27.9%  

34.6%  

64.4%  

17.3%  

20.5%  

0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%  

Health  Care  &  Social  Assistance  

EducaBonal  Services  

Retail  Trade  

Manufacturing  

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  Employees  by  Selected  Major  Industries  in  Pioneer  Valley  

23.0%  

11.7%  

42.1%  

37.3%  

33.2%  

15.5%  

33.1%  

23.8%  

43.8%  

72.7%  

24.8%  

38.8%  

0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%  

Health  Care  &  Social  Assistance  

EducaBonal  Services  

Retail  Trade  

Manufacturing  

High  School  Degree  or  Less   Some  College  or  Associate's  Degree   Bachelor's  Degree  or  Higher  

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  Employees  by  Selected  Major  Industries  in  MassachuseQs        

27  

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The pattern persists across occupations, especially for Healthcare Practitioners & Technical occupations.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

6.3%  

6.4%  

38.6%  

64.2%  

39.6%  

16.2%  

36.5%  

28.1%  

54.1%  

77.4%  

24.9%  

7.7%  

0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%  

Healthcare  PracBBoners  &  Technical  

EducaBon,  Training,  &  Library  Services  

Sales  

ProducBon  

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  Employees  by  Selected  OccupaBons  in  Pioneer  Valley  

6.4%  

5.8%  

31.5%  

65.6%  

29.9%  

13.2%  

31.0%  

23.2%  

63.8%  

81.0%  

37.5%  

11.1%  

0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%  

Healthcare  PracBBoners  &  Technical  

EducaBon,  Training,  &  Library  Services  

Sales  

ProducBon  

High  School  Degree  or  Less   Some  College  or  Associate's  Degree   Bachelor's  Degree  or  Higher  

EducaBonal  AQainment  of  Employees  by  Selected  OccupaBon  in  MassachuseQs  

28  

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Prior to the recession, there were higher vacancy rates in the more highly educated occupations than the less educated ones.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   29  

0.0%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

3.0%  

4.0%  

5.0%  

6.0%  

20.0%   30.0%   40.0%   50.0%   60.0%   70.0%   80.0%   90.0%   100.0%  

Occup

aBon

al  Vacancy  Rate  

Share  of  Employees  with  a  Post-­‐Secondary  EducaBon  by  Major  OccupaBon  

Pioneer  Valley  MassachuseLs  Linear  (Pioneer  Valley)  Linear  (MassachuseLs)  

Job  Vacancies  and  EducaBonal  AQainment  by  OccupaBon,  Pre-­‐Recession    

ProducBon  

Sales  

EducaBon,  Training,  &  Library  

Healthcare  PracBBoners  

Source: Massachusetts EOLWD, Job Vacancy Survey and U.S. Census Bureau 2005-2007 ACS PUMS data files.

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The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post-Secondary Degrees!

§  Enrollment  PaLerns  

§  Degree  CompleBons  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   30  

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Enrollments at institutions in Pioneer Valley have trailed statewide trends, and most national trends, in the past decade.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   31  

7.6%  

2.0%  0.9%  1.6%  

-­‐3.9%  

-­‐8.0%  

-­‐4.0%  

0.0%  

4.0%  

8.0%  

12.0%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States   Pioneer  Valley      MassachuseLs      United  States    

Annual  Growth  in  Enrollments,  2000  to  2010  

Less-­‐than-­‐Two-­‐Year  InsBtuBons   Two-­‐Year  InsBtuBons   Four-­‐Year  InsBtuBons  

Part-­‐Time  Enrollment  

21.0%  

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Full-­‐Time  Enrollment  

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Over the last decade completions of programs and degrees in Pioneer Valley have trailed state and national trends.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   32  

4.0%  

1.1%  

1.9%  

0.0%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

3.0%  

4.0%  

5.0%  

6.0%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States  

Annual  Growth  in  CompleBons,  2000  to  2010  

CerBficates   Associate's  Degrees   Bachelor's  Degrees  

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Completions from public institutions in Pioneer Valley have outpaced private ones in the region.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   33  

5.1%  

3.4%  

1.2%  

-­‐1.0%  

2.0%   1.8%  

-­‐2.0%  

0.0%  

2.0%  

4.0%  

6.0%  

8.0%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States   Pioneer  Valley     MassachuseLs     United  States    

Annual  Growth  in  CompleBons,  2000  to  2010  

CerBficates   Associate's  Degrees   Bachelor's  Degrees  

Private  

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Public  

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Public institutions in Pioneer Valley play a larger role in all forms of post-secondary education than statewide.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

36.6%  

95.6%  

56.5%  

0.0%  

25.0%  

50.0%  

75.0%  

100.0%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States  

Share  of  CompleBons  at  Public  InsBtuBons,  2000  

34  

40.6%  

96.4%  

57.0%  

0.0%  

25.0%  

50.0%  

75.0%  

100.0%  

Pioneer  Valley   MassachuseLs   United  States  

Share  of  CompleBons  at  Public  InsBtuBons,  2010  

CerBficates   Associate's  Degrees   Bachelor's  Degrees  Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Summary!

§  An  aging  workforce,  declines  in  younger  workers,  and  a  stagnant  populaBon  will  force  the  region  to  confront  demographic  challenges  sooner  than  other  regions.  

 

§  Despite  gains  in  the  educaBonal  aLainment  of  its  labor  force  in  the  past  decade,  Pioneer  Valley  sBll  has  the  highest  share  of  individuals  with  only  a  High  School  Degree  or  less.  

 

§  Addressing  the  barriers  to  full  employment  facing  the  region’s  unemployed,  parBcularly  among  the  young  and  less  educated,  is  key  to  the  recovery  of  the  region.    

 

§  Given  such  trends,  what  should  be  done  to  ensure  the  future  economic  vitality  of  Pioneer  Valley  moving  forward?  

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   35  

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Thank You!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

[email protected]!!

www.bostonfed.org/neppc!  

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Health Sciences and Services have accounted for most of the Certificates completed in Pioneer Valley.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   37  

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1,000  

1,200  

1,400  

1,600  

2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010  

Business  Engineering  &  Computer  Sciences  Arts,  HumaniBes,  &  Social  Sciences  Services  Health  Sciences  

Annual  CerBficate  CompleBons  by  Major  in  Pioneer  Valley,  2000  to  2010    

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Nearly 40 percent of Associate’s Degrees completed in Pioneer Valley are in Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   38  

0  

400  

800  

1,200  

1,600  

2,000  

2,400  

2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010  

Engineering  &  Computer  Sciences  Services  Business  Health  Sciences  Arts,  HumaniBes,  &  Social  Sciences  

Annual  Associate’s  Degree  CompleBons  by  Major  in  Pioneer  Valley,  2000  to  2010    

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Similar to Associate’s Degrees, more than 40 percent of the region’s Bachelor’s Degrees are in Art, Humanities, & Social Sciences.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region   39  

0  

2,000  

4,000  

6,000  

8,000  

10,000  

12,000  

2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010  

Health  Sciences  Services  Science  &  MathemaBcs  Business  Arts,  HumaniBes,  &  Social  Sciences  

Annual  Bachelor’s  Degree  CompleBons  by  Major  in  Pioneer  Valley,  2000  to  2010    

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Nearly 70 percent of the region’s unemployed are in Hampden County, where the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

0.0%  

1.0%  

2.0%  

3.0%  

4.0%  

5.0%  

6.0%  

7.0%  

8.0%  

9.0%  

10.0%  

2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Unemployment  Rates,  2000  to  2011  

United  States  MassachuseQs  Pioneer  Valley  Franklin/Hampshire  Hampden  

40  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.

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Those with less than a high school education are seven times more likely to be unemployed than those with a Master’s Degree or higher.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

21.6%  

11.3%  

8.7%  

4.5%  

5.1%  

2.9%  

17.9%  

10.9%  

9.1%  

6.0%  

5.3%  

3.4%  

0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%  

Less  than  High  School  

High  School  

Some  College,  no  degree  

Associate's  degree  

Bachelor's  degree  

Master's  degree  or  more  MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Unemployment  Rates  by  EducaBon,  2008-­‐2010  

41  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

Page 42: Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Regioncommcorp.org/wp...lmt-ppt_2012-11-pioneer-valley.pdf · Employment changes in Pioneer Valley mirrored statewide trends over most of

One in five 16-24 year olds in Pioneer Valley is unemployed, and is more likely to be unemployed than any other age group.!

November  14,  2012  Labor  Market  Trends  in  the  Pioneer  Valley  Region  

20.3%  

9.7%  

7.5%  

7.0%  

4.7%  

5.4%  

16.2%  

7.7%  

6.7%  

6.8%  

6.4%  

7.1%  

0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%  

Age  16-­‐24  

Age  25-­‐34  

Age  35-­‐44  

Age  45-­‐54  

Age  55-­‐64  

Age  65+  MassachuseLs  Pioneer  Valley  

Unemployment  Rates  by  EducaBon,  2008-­‐2010  

42  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.