Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley...
Transcript of Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley...
By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Labor Market Trends in the!Pioneer Valley Region!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Motivation!
§ Promote beLer public policy by conducBng objecBve research and analysis of regional economic/policy issues.
§ Understand the long-‐term labor force challenges facing the regional labor markets in MassachuseLs.
§ Provide detailed data on labor supply and demand trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level.
§ Build off the labor market work of Harrington and Fogg (2008) and the demographics research of Sasser ModesBno (2009, 2010).
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 2
The Pioneer Valley Region!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 3
Ware
Athol
Petersham
Colrain
Monson
New
Sal
em
Orange
Gill
Palmer
Warwick
Belchertown
RoyalstonHeath
Brimfield
Wendell
Ludlow
Granby
Deerfield
Northfield
Had
ley
Pelham
Amherst
Montague
Springfield
Leve
rett
Hol
yoke
Agawam Wales
Whately
Chicopee
Leyden
Phillipston
Shut
esbu
ryShelburne
Erving
Hatfi
eld
Buckland Green
field
Wilb
raha
m
Hampden
Bernardston
Hol
land
Monroe
Sout
h H
adle
ySu
nder
land
West Springfield
LongmeadowEast Longmeadow
PLAINFIELD ASHFIELDCONWAY
CUMMINGTON
HAWLEY
CHARLEMONT
ROWE
WORHTINGTON
GOSHEN
CHESTERFIELD WILLIAMSBURG
MIDDLEFIELD
CHESTER
HUNTINGT
ON
SOUTHAMPTON EASTHA
MPTONW
ESTH
AMPT
ON
NORTHAMPTON
BLANFORD
TOLLANDGRANVILLE
SOUTHWICK
WESTFIELD
RUSSELL
MONTGOM
ERY
Summary!
§ AXer nearly a decade of declining employment, Pioneer Valley is recovering at a modest pace, but conBnues to have one of the highest unemployment rates statewide.
§ An aging workforce, declines in younger workers, and a stagnant populaBon will force the region to confront demographic challenges sooner than other regions.
§ Despite gains in the educaBonal aLainment of its labor force in the past decade, Pioneer Valley sBll has the highest share of individuals with only a High School Degree or less.
§ Addressing the barriers to employment facing the region’s unemployed, parBcularly among the young and less educated, is key to the economic vitality of the region.
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 4
Outline!
§ Labor Market Performance
§ Labor Supply
§ Labor Demand
§ The Pipeline: EducaBonal Supply of Post-‐Secondary Degrees
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 5
Labor Market Performance!
§ NaBonal and State Employment Trends
§ Performance of Regional Labor Markets
§ Employment Trends by Industry in Pioneer Valley and MassachuseLs
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 6
Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels of the early 2000’s.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
Q1-‐2000 Q1-‐2001 Q1-‐2002 Q1-‐2003 Q1-‐2004 Q1-‐2005 Q1-‐2006 Q1-‐2007 Q1-‐2008 Q1-‐2009 Q1-‐2010 Q1-‐2011 Q1-‐2012
Total Non-‐Agricultural Employment, Q1-‐2000 to Q3-‐2012
NBER Recession United States Massachusetts
Through Q3-‐2012 Index 2000=1
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
7
Employment changes in Pioneer Valley mirrored statewide trends over most of the past decade, but trailed in the recovery.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐2.2%
-‐4.0%
2.2%
-‐8.0%
-‐6.0%
-‐4.0%
-‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0% Total Growth Rates in Employment
Q1 2001-‐Q1 2008 Q4 2007-‐Q4 2009 Q4 2009-‐Q4 2011
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
8
The region’s share of employment in Education & Health Services is larger than in any other regional labor market.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
33.2% 27.2% 24.3%
19.2%
18.3% 20.7%
7.6% 15.2% 13.6%
9.6% 9.8% 10.5%
9.5% 7.9% 9.1%
4.7% 6.5% 5.9% 4.7% 4.3% 3.5% 6.1% 4.1% 5.8%
3.9% 3.9% 4.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Employment DistribuBon by Supersector, Q4 2011 InformaBon
ConstrucBon
Other services
Government
Financial AcBviBes
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hospitality
Professional & Business Services Trade, TransportaBon & UBliBes EducaBon & Health Services
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 9
Between recessions, the state and region had similar employment trends across most industries.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐30.0% -‐20.0% -‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Other Services Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon EducaBonal Services
Professional & Technical Services AccommodaBon & Food Services
ConstrucBon Financial AcBviBes
UBliBes Government
TransportaBon & Warehousing Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade AdministraBve & Support Services
InformaBon Management of Companies & Enterprises
Manufacturing
Employment Changes, Q1-‐2001 to Q1-‐2008
MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 10
Similarly, in the Great Recession, the region and state had comparable employment changes across most industries.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐25.0% -‐20.0% -‐15.0% -‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
UBliBes Other Services
Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon Health Care & Social Assistance
Government AccommodaBon & Food Services
EducaBonal Services Financial AcBviBes
Retail Trade Professional & Technical Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises Wholesale Trade
TransportaBon & Warehousing InformaBon
AdministraBve & Support Services Manufacturing ConstrucBon
Employment Changes, Q4-‐2007 to Q4-‐2009
MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 11
Strong employment gains in a few industries were mitigated by losses and slow growth among others in Pioneer Valley.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
AdministraBve & Support Services ConstrucBon
Arts, Entertainment, & RecreaBon Other Services
Professional & Technical Services Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade UBliBes
EducaBonal Services AccommodaBon & Food Services Health Care & Social Assistance
Government Management of Companies & Enterprises
TransportaBon & Warehousing Manufacturing
Financial AcBviBes InformaBon
Employment Changes, Q4-‐2009 to Q4-‐2011
MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 12
Labor Supply!
§ ResidenBal PopulaBon Changes and CharacterisBcs
§ Age and EducaBon of the Civilian Labor Force § Trends and CharacterisBcs of the Unemployed
§ CommuBng PaLerns
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 13
Pioneer Valley’s total residential population was essentially unchanged over the course of the last decade.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐0.1%
0.1%
-‐1.5%
-‐1.0%
-‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Total ResidenBal PopulaBon Growth
Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005-‐2007
Annual Growth Rate 2005-‐2007 to 2008-‐2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.
14
While the total population was stagnant, the region saw growing numbers of immigrants and minorities in the past decade.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Demographic CharacterisBcs of Pioneer Valley
15
2000 2008-‐2010 Absolute Change
Annual Growth Rate
Resident PopulaBon 680,610 679,768 -‐842 0.0% Gender Male 326,958 325,509 -‐1,449 0.0% Female 353,652 354,259 607 0.0% NaBvity NaBve Born 600,950 586,125 -‐14,825 -‐0.3% Immigrant 79,660 93,643 13,983 1.8% Race/Ethnicity White, non-‐Hispanic 547,634 515,440 -‐32,194 -‐0.7% Black, non-‐Hispanic 35,871 37,056 1,185 0.4% Asian, non-‐Hispanic 10,919 15,118 4,199 3.7% Hispanic 74,134 100,538 26,404 3.4% Other race, non-‐Hispanic 12,052 11,616 -‐436 -‐0.4%
The labor force in Pioneer Valley increased in age over the past decade and is older than the state’s labor force.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
14.9% 13.7% 12.9% 13.2% 15.2% 14.2%
20.0% 18.2% 23.3% 20.2% 22.7% 21.5%
26.8% 21.0%
27.0% 22.0%
26.8% 22.3%
23.9%
24.7%
22.4% 23.9%
21.8% 23.3%
10.8% 17.6%
10.8% 15.8%
10.2% 14.7%
3.6% 4.8% 3.6% 4.7% 3.3% 4.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 Pioneer Valley
2008-‐2010
2000 MassachuseLs
2008-‐2010
2000 United States
2008-‐2010
Age DistribuBon of the Civilian Labor Force
Age 65+
Age 55-‐64
Age 45-‐54
Age 35-‐44
Age 25-‐34
Age 16-‐24
16
Pioneer Valley was the only region to see a decline in the number of 16-24 year olds in the labor force in the past decade.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐0.5%
-‐0.6%
-‐2.2%
0.8%
6.1%
3.6%
1.3%
-‐0.6%
-‐1.3%
1.7%
5.4%
3.9%
-‐3.0% -‐2.0% -‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Age 16-‐24
Age 25-‐34
Age 35-‐44
Age 45-‐54
Age 55-‐64
Age 65+
Annual Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Age, 2000 to 2008-‐2010
MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 17
The region’s labor force has the highest concentration of individuals with a High School Degree or less in the state.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
12.5% 10.1% 11.5% 8.7% 15.5% 11.8%
28.5% 28.0% 24.3% 23.5%
26.9% 26.3%
21.4% 21.0%
19.1% 18.7%
23.9% 24.0%
9.6% 10.3%
7.9% 7.9%
7.2% 8.3%
16.6% 18.4% 22.3%
24.4%
17.2% 19.1%
11.5% 12.1% 14.8% 16.8% 9.4% 10.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 Pioneer Valley
2008-‐2010
2000 MassachuseLs
2008-‐2010
2000 United States
2008-‐2010
EducaBonal AQainment of the Civilian Labor Force
Master's degree or more
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some College, no degree
High School
Less than High School
18
Educational attainment has increased considerably in the past decade, but Pioneer Valley has trailed Massachusetts.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐1.9%
0.3%
0.3%
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
-‐2.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
2.0%
2.4%
-‐3.0% -‐2.0% -‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Less than High School
High School
Some College, no degree
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Master's Degree or more MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Annual Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by EducaBon, 2000 to 2008-‐2010
19
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
The combination of lower levels of educational attainment and an aging population present challenges for Pioneer Valley.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Less than High School
High School
Some College
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Master's Degree or more
EducaBonal AQainment of the Civilian Labor Force in Pioneer Valley
Age 55-‐64
Age 45-‐54
Age 35-‐44
Age 25-‐34
20
In the Great Recession the unemployment rate reached 9.0 percent in Pioneer Valley, third highest among all regions.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011
United States MassachuseQs Pioneer Valley
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.
21
The unemployed in Pioneer Valley are disproportionately younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
13.7%
31.1% 18.2%
19.8% 21.0%
17.6% 24.7%
19.4%
17.6% 9.2%
4.8% 2.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Civilian Labor Force Unemployed
Age DistribuBon
Age 65+ Age 55-‐64 Age 45-‐54
Age 35-‐44 Age 25-‐34 Age 16-‐24
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
10.1% 24.4%
28.0%
35.5% 21.0%
20.5% 10.3%
5.1% 18.4%
10.6% 12.1%
3.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Civilian Labor Force Unemployed
EducaBon DistribuBon
Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School
22
Compared to other labor markets, Pioneer Valley has strong commuting ties to Connecticut but weak ties with other regions.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 23
Number Percent of Total
Total number of employed persons living in Pioneer Valley… 324,026 100.0% …that work in:
Pioneer Valley 277,172 85.5% Central Mass 8,718 2.7% Berkshire 5,431 1.7% Other parts of MassachuseLs 4,714 1.5% ConnecBcut 23,550 7.3% Vermont 1,337 0.4% New York 1,032 0.3% Other places outside MassachuseLs 2,072 0.6%
Total number of persons working in Pioneer Valley… 302,831 100.0% …that live in:
Pioneer Valley 277,172 91.5% Central Mass 5,902 1.9% Berkshire 2,762 0.9% Other parts of MassachuseLs 2,309 0.8% ConnecBcut 10,797 3.6% New York 1,039 0.3% Vermont 832 0.3% Other places outside MassachuseLs 2,018 0.7%
Net in-‐commuBng -‐21,195 -‐
Labor Demand!
§ EducaBonal ALainment of Employed
§ EducaBonal ALainment and ComposiBon of Industries and OccupaBons
§ Demand for Workers with Post-‐Secondary EducaBon Pre-‐Recession
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 24
The educational attainment of those employed in Pioneer Valley is closer to the nationwide workforce than statewide.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
11.7% 8.6% 10.6% 7.6% 14.4% 10.7%
28.4% 27.5% 24.0%
22.7%
26.7% 25.7%
21.5% 21.0% 19.2%
18.6%
24.1% 24.0%
9.3% 10.7%
8.1% 8.2%
7.3% 8.5%
17.0% 19.3% 22.9%
25.4%
17.7% 19.9%
12.1% 13.0% 15.1% 17.5% 9.7% 11.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 Pioneer Valley
2008-‐2010
2000 MassachuseLs
2008-‐2010
2000 United States
2008-‐2010
EducaBonal AQainment of Individuals Employed in the Region
Master's degree or more
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some College, no degree
High School
Less than High School
25
A growing number of employees have an Associate's Degree or higher, while a shrinking number have lower levels of education.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
-‐3.3%
-‐0.3%
-‐0.2%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
-‐3.3%
-‐0.3%
0.0%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
-‐4.0% -‐3.0% -‐2.0% -‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Less than High School
High School
Some College, no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree or more MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Annual Growth in the Employed by EducaBon, 2000 to 2008-‐2010
26
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Industries in Pioneer Valley have smaller shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, but larger shares with “middle-skills”.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
27.2%
15.8%
47.5%
51.6%
38.2%
19.8%
35.2%
27.9%
34.6%
64.4%
17.3%
20.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Health Care & Social Assistance
EducaBonal Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
EducaBonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in Pioneer Valley
23.0%
11.7%
42.1%
37.3%
33.2%
15.5%
33.1%
23.8%
43.8%
72.7%
24.8%
38.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Health Care & Social Assistance
EducaBonal Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher
EducaBonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in MassachuseQs
27
The pattern persists across occupations, especially for Healthcare Practitioners & Technical occupations.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
6.3%
6.4%
38.6%
64.2%
39.6%
16.2%
36.5%
28.1%
54.1%
77.4%
24.9%
7.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical
EducaBon, Training, & Library Services
Sales
ProducBon
EducaBonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaBons in Pioneer Valley
6.4%
5.8%
31.5%
65.6%
29.9%
13.2%
31.0%
23.2%
63.8%
81.0%
37.5%
11.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical
EducaBon, Training, & Library Services
Sales
ProducBon
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher
EducaBonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaBon in MassachuseQs
28
Prior to the recession, there were higher vacancy rates in the more highly educated occupations than the less educated ones.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 29
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Occup
aBon
al Vacancy Rate
Share of Employees with a Post-‐Secondary EducaBon by Major OccupaBon
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs Linear (Pioneer Valley) Linear (MassachuseLs)
Job Vacancies and EducaBonal AQainment by OccupaBon, Pre-‐Recession
ProducBon
Sales
EducaBon, Training, & Library
Healthcare PracBBoners
Source: Massachusetts EOLWD, Job Vacancy Survey and U.S. Census Bureau 2005-2007 ACS PUMS data files.
The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post-Secondary Degrees!
§ Enrollment PaLerns
§ Degree CompleBons
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 30
Enrollments at institutions in Pioneer Valley have trailed statewide trends, and most national trends, in the past decade.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 31
7.6%
2.0% 0.9% 1.6%
-‐3.9%
-‐8.0%
-‐4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Annual Growth in Enrollments, 2000 to 2010
Less-‐than-‐Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Four-‐Year InsBtuBons
Part-‐Time Enrollment
21.0%
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Full-‐Time Enrollment
Over the last decade completions of programs and degrees in Pioneer Valley have trailed state and national trends.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 32
4.0%
1.1%
1.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Annual Growth in CompleBons, 2000 to 2010
CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Completions from public institutions in Pioneer Valley have outpaced private ones in the region.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 33
5.1%
3.4%
1.2%
-‐1.0%
2.0% 1.8%
-‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Annual Growth in CompleBons, 2000 to 2010
CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees
Private
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Public
Public institutions in Pioneer Valley play a larger role in all forms of post-secondary education than statewide.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
36.6%
95.6%
56.5%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Share of CompleBons at Public InsBtuBons, 2000
34
40.6%
96.4%
57.0%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Pioneer Valley MassachuseLs United States
Share of CompleBons at Public InsBtuBons, 2010
CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Summary!
§ An aging workforce, declines in younger workers, and a stagnant populaBon will force the region to confront demographic challenges sooner than other regions.
§ Despite gains in the educaBonal aLainment of its labor force in the past decade, Pioneer Valley sBll has the highest share of individuals with only a High School Degree or less.
§ Addressing the barriers to full employment facing the region’s unemployed, parBcularly among the young and less educated, is key to the recovery of the region.
§ Given such trends, what should be done to ensure the future economic vitality of Pioneer Valley moving forward?
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 35
Thank You!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
www.bostonfed.org/neppc!
Health Sciences and Services have accounted for most of the Certificates completed in Pioneer Valley.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 37
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Business Engineering & Computer Sciences Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences Services Health Sciences
Annual CerBficate CompleBons by Major in Pioneer Valley, 2000 to 2010
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Nearly 40 percent of Associate’s Degrees completed in Pioneer Valley are in Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 38
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Engineering & Computer Sciences Services Business Health Sciences Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences
Annual Associate’s Degree CompleBons by Major in Pioneer Valley, 2000 to 2010
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Similar to Associate’s Degrees, more than 40 percent of the region’s Bachelor’s Degrees are in Art, Humanities, & Social Sciences.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region 39
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Health Sciences Services Science & MathemaBcs Business Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences
Annual Bachelor’s Degree CompleBons by Major in Pioneer Valley, 2000 to 2010
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Nearly 70 percent of the region’s unemployed are in Hampden County, where the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011
United States MassachuseQs Pioneer Valley Franklin/Hampshire Hampden
40
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.
Those with less than a high school education are seven times more likely to be unemployed than those with a Master’s Degree or higher.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
21.6%
11.3%
8.7%
4.5%
5.1%
2.9%
17.9%
10.9%
9.1%
6.0%
5.3%
3.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Less than High School
High School
Some College, no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree or more MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Unemployment Rates by EducaBon, 2008-‐2010
41
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
One in five 16-24 year olds in Pioneer Valley is unemployed, and is more likely to be unemployed than any other age group.!
November 14, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Pioneer Valley Region
20.3%
9.7%
7.5%
7.0%
4.7%
5.4%
16.2%
7.7%
6.7%
6.8%
6.4%
7.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Age 16-‐24
Age 25-‐34
Age 35-‐44
Age 45-‐54
Age 55-‐64
Age 65+ MassachuseLs Pioneer Valley
Unemployment Rates by EducaBon, 2008-‐2010
42
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.