La práctica pronóstico de la trayectoriasevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/19b1... ·...
Transcript of La práctica pronóstico de la trayectoriasevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/19b1... ·...
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La práctica pronóstico de la
trayectoria
2017 WMO RA-IV Workshop
March 8, 2016
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La práctica pronóstico de la
trayectoria- You are given 48-h model forecast tracks for a hurricane in the Bay of
Campeche.
- You are also given 850 mb vorticity, 500mb height, and 200mb wind fields for
the members of the multimodel consensus (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, GFDL)
- Using this information, make a 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h track forecast for the
hurricane. Provide a latitude and longitude position (to the nearest tenth of a
degree), and compute the storm motion at each forecast hour. Plot your
forecast on the map provided.
- Will the hurricane make landfall in the next 48 hours? And if so, where?
- Is it time to issue a Hurricane Warning?
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Track Forecast Map
48 36
24
12
00
....
..
.
.
Pronósticoanterior
Trayectoria de
la tormenta
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Hoja de cálculo de pronóstico de la trayectoria
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Parte 1:
Calcular el movimiento actual
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Calcular el movimiento actual
La conversión :
1 kt = 1 n mi / h
1°latitude = 60 n mi
1/60°latitude = 1 n mi
distancia (degrees) 60 (n mi)
tiempo (h) Velocidad (kt) =
1 (degree) X
El rumbo = Clockwise degrees departure from 0°(N)
0
90
180
270
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Calcular el movimiento actual
1800 UTC
21.0 N
94.4 W
1200 UTC:
20.3 N
94.6 W
0.8°15°
Dirección = 15°
El movimiento = 015/08
0.8 (degrees) 60 (n mi)
6 (h) 1 (degree) X = 8 ktVelocidad=
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Hoja de cálculo de pronóstico de la trayectoria
015/08
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Part 2:
Make a Forecast
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Initial position, storm motion, and previous forecast
Position:
21.0 N
94.4 W
Motion:
015°(NNE)
8 kt
Intensity:
65 kt
Fhr Lat Lon
12 21.4 94.4
24 22.0 94.7
36 22.5 96.0
48 22.5 97.3
Previous Forecast:
Old 48-h
forecast position
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Initial model fields
GFS (GFSI) ECMWF (EMXI) UKMET (EGRI)
GFDL (GHMI) HWRF (HWFI)
00-h forecasts of :
- 850mb relative vorticity
(shaded, x10^-5/s),
- 500mb geopotential
height (black contours,
x10m)
- 200mb wind vectors
(blue barbs, kt)
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12-h Model Forecast Fields
GFS (GFSI) ECMWF (EMXI) UKMET (EGRI)
GFDL (GHMI) HWRF (HWFI)
12-h forecasts of :
- 850mb relative vorticity
(shaded, x10^-5/s),
- 500mb geopotential
height (black contours,
x10m)
- 200mb wind vectors
(blue barbs, kt)
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12-h Model Forecast Tracks
BAMS
BAMM
EGRI TVCN
GFSI
HWFI
CLP5
GEMI
EMXI
OFCI
GHMI
OFCI Pronóstico
anterior Azul claro
CLP5 Climatología Gris
BAMS trayectoria
poco profunda Morado
BAMM trayectoria del
medio Morado
BAMD trayectoria
profunda Morado
TVCN Promedio Naranja
oscuro
GFSI GFS Negro
EMXI ECMWF Rosado
EGRI UKMET Naranja
GHMI GFDL Verde
HWFI HWRF Verde
GEMI GFS conjunto
promedio Amarillo
BAMD
Note: BAMD y TVCN están
en la misma ubicación
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Track Forecast Map
..
..
I
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Track Forecast Worksheet
015/08
22.0 94.4 000/05
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24-h Model Forecast Fields
GFS (GFSI) ECMWF (EMXI) UKMET (EGRI)
GFDL (GHMI) HWRF (HWFI)
24-h forecasts of :
- 850mb relative vorticity
(shaded, x10^-5/s),
- 500mb geopotential
height (black contours,
x10m)
- 200mb wind vectors
(blue barbs, kt)
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24-h Model Forecast Tracks
BAMS
BAMM
EGRI
TVCN
GFSIHWFI
CLP5
GEMI
EMXIOFCI
GHMI
BAMD
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36-h Model Forecast Fields
GFS (GFSI) ECMWF (EMXI) UKMET (EGRI)
GFDL (GHMI) HWRF (HWFI)
36-h forecasts of :
- 850mb relative vorticity
(shaded, x10^-5/s),
- 500mb geopotential
height (black contours,
x10m)
- 200mb wind vectors
(blue barbs, kt)
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36-h Model Forecast Tracks
BAMS
BAMM
EGRI
TVCN
GFSI
HWFI
CLP5
GEMI
EMXIOFCI
GHMI
BAMD
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48-h Model Forecast Fields
GFS (GFSI) ECMWF (EMXI) UKMET (EGRI)
GFDL (GHMI) HWRF (HWFI)
48-h forecasts of :
- 850mb relative vorticity
(shaded, x10^-5/s),
- 500mb geopotential
height (black contours,
x10m)
- 200mb wind vectors
(blue barbs, kt)
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48-h Model Forecast Tracks
BAMS
BAMM EGRI
TVCN
GFSI
HWFI
CLP5
GEMIEMXI
OFCI
GHMI
BAMD
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Part 3:
Responder preguntas
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Niveles de Advertencias
• Alerta (vigilancia) de huracán o tormenta tropical:
Condiciones de huracán o tormenta tropical son posibles en el área específica de la alerta, usualmente después de las 48 horas del comienzo de vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical..
• Aviso de huracán o tormenta tropical:
Condiciones de huracán o tormenta tropical se anticipan en el área prevista en el aviso, usualmente dentro de las 36 horas del comienzo de vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical.
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