• 11992: UNITED NATION FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON 992: UNITED NATION FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE

• Recognize there is a problem: co2 emission are warming the planet,Recognize there is a problem: co2 emission are warming the planet, stabilize CO2 at "at a level that would prevent stabilize CO2 at "at a level that would prevent dangerous dangerous anthropogenianthropogeni

c (human induced) interference with the climate system.“ c (human induced) interference with the climate system.“ goals: goals: 1) ensure that ecosystems can adapt to climate change1) ensure that ecosystems can adapt to climate change2) make sure that food production not threatened2) make sure that food production not threatened3) allow sustainable economic development3) allow sustainable economic development

• requires precise and regularly updated inventories of greenhouse requires precise and regularly updated inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries.gas emissions from industrialized countries.

1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

- places the heaviest burden for fighting climate change on industrialized - places the heaviest burden for fighting climate change on industrialized nations nations

Annex 1: industrialized economies and economies in Annex 1: industrialized economies and economies in transitiontransition

Annex 2: the richest Annex 1 countriesAnnex 2: the richest Annex 1 countries(aka the Organization for Economic Cooperation and (aka the Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD))Development (OECD))

- general target: collectively reduce emissions to 1990 levels by - general target: collectively reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 20002000

(but no mechanisms, enforcement proposed)(but no mechanisms, enforcement proposed)

- support developing countries’ climate change activities (granting - support developing countries’ climate change activities (granting body)body) - developing countries’- developing countries’ emissions will grow before they shrink emissions will grow before they shrink

- developing countries will have largest climate change impacts; - developing countries will have largest climate change impacts; work to mitigatework to mitigate

Dec 1-11, 1997: representatives from 160 countries agreed to enter intoDec 1-11, 1997: representatives from 160 countries agreed to enter intobinding limits on emissions of greenhouse gasesbinding limits on emissions of greenhouse gases

TARGETSTARGETS::Total: reduce developed nation emissions to 5% below 1990 levels duringTotal: reduce developed nation emissions to 5% below 1990 levels during

““commitment periodcommitment period”” 2008-2012 2008-2012(most countries need -18% reduction in BAU by 2008)(most countries need -18% reduction in BAU by 2008)

37 industrialized nations and the EU subject to binding emissions targets37 industrialized nations and the EU subject to binding emissions targets

Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6

PENALTYPENALTY::Non-compliant countries will have to reduce emissions by 1.3 units for Non-compliant countries will have to reduce emissions by 1.3 units for every unit of emissions “every unit of emissions “overshootovershoot”” in subsequent commitment period. in subsequent commitment period.

Ex: if your emissions target is 7Gtons per year by 2012, and you endEx: if your emissions target is 7Gtons per year by 2012, and you endup at 10Gtons/yr, in the next commitment period (2013-2020) you up at 10Gtons/yr, in the next commitment period (2013-2020) you will have to reduce by 4Gtons/yr (in addition to any new targets) to be will have to reduce by 4Gtons/yr (in addition to any new targets) to be compliantcompliant

The Doha Amendment passed on December 21, 2012The Doha Amendment passed on December 21, 2012

22ndnd implementation: 1/1/13-12/31/20 implementation: 1/1/13-12/31/20

*Russia,*Russia,Canada,Canada,and Japanand Japanbow outbow outof KP2of KP2

1990

Kyoto comes into force when 55% of the global CO2 emissions are covered byKyoto comes into force when 55% of the global CO2 emissions are covered byKyoto-ratifying countriesKyoto-ratifying countries

Kyoto took effect on Feb 16, 2005 after ratification by RussiaKyoto took effect on Feb 16, 2005 after ratification by Russia

Brown = signed and ratified (dark brown = Annex 1 & 2)Brown = signed and ratified (dark brown = Annex 1 & 2)Blue = signed and unratified (dark blue = withdrew, add Russia and JapanBlue = signed and unratified (dark blue = withdrew, add Russia and Japan)

CountryCountryChange in GHGChange in GHG

Emissions Emissions (1990-2004)(1990-2004)

EU Assigned EU Assigned ObjectiveObjectivefor 2012for 2012

Treaty Obligation Treaty Obligation 2008-20122008-2012

GermanyGermany -17%-17% -21%-21% -8%-8%

CanadaCanada +27%+27% N/AN/A -6%-6%

SpainSpain +49%+49% +15%+15% -8%-8%

United United StatesStates +16%+16% N/AN/A N/A (would be -7%)N/A (would be -7%)

FranceFrance -0.8%-0.8% 0%0% -8%-8%

GreeceGreece +27%+27% +25%+25% -8%-8%

IrelandIreland +23%+23% +13%+13% -8%-8%

JapanJapan +6.5%+6.5% N/AN/A -6%-6%

United United KingdomKingdom -14%-14% -12.5%-12.5% -8%-8%

PortugalPortugal +41%+41% +27%+27% -8%-8%

EU-15EU-15 -0.8%-0.8% N/AN/A -8%-8%

Who are theBiggest Losers? Whose emissions

have grown?

Source: International Energy AgencySource: International Energy Agency

Source: UNFCCSo it’So it’s not true that EU countries are not meeting their Kyoto obligationss not true that EU countries are not meeting their Kyoto obligationsalthough help from Eastern Block countries help a lot….although help from Eastern Block countries help a lot….

Land use changes have contributed significant CO2Land use changes have contributed significant CO2Source: UNFCC

Land-use and Land-useLand-use and Land-useChange and ForestryChange and Forestry(LULUCF) makes a huge(LULUCF) makes a hugedifference in maps ofdifference in maps ofrelative COrelative CO22 emissions emissions

wikipedia.org/LULUCF

Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Enter Enter REDDREDD: Reducing Emissions from : Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest DegradationDeforestation and Forest Degradation

Fact: 18% anthropogenic emissions comes from forest destructionFact: 18% anthropogenic emissions comes from forest destruction

Idea: Developed countries will pay for developing countries Idea: Developed countries will pay for developing countries not to destroy rainforestnot to destroy rainforest

REDDplusREDDplusWhat do people mean by“perverse incentive” with

REDD?Any equity issues to consider?

1.1. Cap and trade is a market-based approach to reducing pollution. The govt setsCap and trade is a market-based approach to reducing pollution. The govt sets an overall cap on emissions and creates allowances up to the level of the cap.an overall cap on emissions and creates allowances up to the level of the cap.

2.2. Sources must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions.Sources must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions.- can lower emissions and sell or bank allowances- can lower emissions and sell or bank allowances- continue to emit higher than their allowance and purchase additional allowances- continue to emit higher than their allowance and purchase additional allowances

3.3. Market-driven: govt does not prescribe where emission reductions are made,Market-driven: govt does not prescribe where emission reductions are made,but the govt must set the goal and monitor compliance but the govt must set the goal and monitor compliance

Phase 1 (2005-2007): allowances given out freely; involves 40% EU CO2Phase 1 (2005-2007): allowances given out freely; involves 40% EU CO2EU emissions grow by 1.9% in two yearsEU emissions grow by 1.9% in two years

Phase 2 (2008-2012): CDM and JI included; 60% allowances auctionedPhase 2 (2008-2012): CDM and JI included; 60% allowances auctionedEU emissions (only 3% required)EU emissions (only 3% required)

Phase 3 (2012- ): aviation included; most allowances (>50%) must be Phase 3 (2012- ): aviation included; most allowances (>50%) must be auctioned; outside-EU emissions credits <50%auctioned; outside-EU emissions credits <50%- new cap means -21% of 2005 emissions by 2020- new cap means -21% of 2005 emissions by 2020

Carbon currently trading at €8.52 ($10.50) per tonne

“Cheaper, not cleaner”--The Economist

Australia chose a carbon tax:Australia chose a carbon tax:$24/ton$24/ton

How $43/ton carbon price translates into energy prices:How $43/ton carbon price translates into energy prices:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/coefficients.html