Korean VoIP equipment market

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Korean VoIP equipment market

Transcript of Korean VoIP equipment market

Dec 2006

Korean VoIP market analysisXENER SYSTEMS: TOTAL NGN SOLUTION PROVIDER

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

1

Table of ContentsMethodology VoIP Carrier market analysis Enterprise market analysis

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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1

MethodologyTop-down Analysis Top-down Analysis Bottom-up Analysis Bottom-up Analysis

Subscriber Subscriber Forecast Forecast

CAPEX Trend CAPEX Trend

VoIP VoIP

Biz deal Biz deal (2002~2006) (2002~2006)

VoIP CAPEX VoIP CAPEX

(2002~2006) (2002~2006)

Layer CAPEX Layer CAPEX

Addressable Addressable Market MarketCopyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 3

VoIP Service

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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2

VoIP Service (2005 : ) : 2005 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 070 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 1H250,615 11,360 171

2006 2H331,095 11,360 226 71,915

2007 2H593,051 10,224 364 444,324

2008 2H916,189 9,713 534 1,385,049

2009 2H1,215,125 9,713 708 2,651,426

1H448,179 10,224 275 206,071

1H751,769 9,713 438 832,671

1H1,076,677 9,713 627 2,035,666

1H1,317,009 9,713 768 3,124,672

2H1,389,982 9,713 810 3,433,466

-

11,000

9,900

9,900

9,405

9,405

9,405

9,405

9,405

9,405

-

47

122

264

470

782

1,149

1,496

1,763

1,938

171

273 444

397

628 1,025

908

1,316 2,224

1,776

2,204 3,981

2,531

2,748 5,278

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2005.09)

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

5

VoIP Service (2005 : ) : 1 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 2 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 3 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 4 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 200521,000 21,000 21,000 23,100 16,046 21,000 20 5,901 21,000 7 951 21,000 1 1,596 23,100 2

200645,980 19,950 55 16,910 19,950 20 2,725 19,950 3 4,574 21,945 6 99,141 19,950 119 36,461 19,950 44 5,875 19,950 7 9,862 21,945 13

2007185,792 18,953 211 68,329 18,953 78 11,010 19,950 13 18,481 21,945 24 309,042 18,953 351 113,658 18,953 129 18,314 19,950 22 30,741 21,945 40

2008454,213 18,953 517 167,048 18,953 190 26,917 19,950 32 45,181 21,945 59 591,605 18,953 673 217,577 18,953 247 35,059 19,950 42 58,848 21,945 77

2009697,199 18,953 793 256,412 18,953 292 41,316 19,950 49 69,352 21,945 91 766,100 18,953 871 281,752 18,953 320 45,399 19,950 54 76,205 21,945 100

-

31 31

85

182 267

326

543 870

798

1,040 1,838

1,225

1,346 2,571

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2005.09)Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 6

3

VoIP + (2005 : ) : Service ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 070 ARPU() ()= *ARPU*6 -

2005 1H250,615 11,360 171

2006 2H331,095 11,360 226 71,915 11,000 47

2007 2H593,051 10,224 364 444,324 9,900 264

2008 2H916,189 9,713 534 1,385,049 9,405 782

2009 2H1,215,125 9,713 708 2,651,426 9,405 1,496

1H448,179 10,224 275 206,071 9,900 122

1H751,769 9,713 438 832,671 9,405 470

1H1,076,677 9,713 627 2,035,666 9,405 1,149

1H1,317,009 9,713 768 3,124,672 9,405 1,763

2H1,389,982 9,713 810 3,433,466 9,405 1,938

-

444 31 475

1,025 267 1,292

2,224 870 3,094

3,981 1,838 5,819

5,278 2,571 7,849

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2005.09)

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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VoIP Service 2006 :

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

331,095

593,051

916,189

1,215,125

1,389,982

1,353,118

261,956

323,138

298,936

174,857

-36,864

070

71,915

444,324

1,385,049

2,651,426

3,433,466

3,780,193

372,409

940,725

1,266,377

782,040

346,727

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

24,494

151,339

471,755

903,089

1,169,456

1,287,680

126,845

320,416

431,334

266,367

118,224

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2006.12)Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 8

4

VoIP Equipment 2006 : : 2004 App & SVC(MS, AS) SSW+SG Media GW Access (TG ) 15.0% 30.0% 40.0% 15.0% 100.0% 2005 13.0% 32.0% 40.0% 15.0% 100.0% 2006 19.0% 27.0% 40.0% 14.0% 100.0% 2007 19.0% 20.0% 40.0% 21.0% 100.0% 2008 18.0% 15.0% 44.0% 23.0% 100.0% 2009 18.0% 12.0% 44.0% 26.0% 100.0% 2010 18.0% 12.0% 44.0% 26.0% 100.0%

App & SVC(MS, AS) SSW+SG Media GW Access (TG ) YoY Growth

25.2 40.6

70.5 120.0

76.5 108.8 161.1 56.4 402.9

157.7 166.0 332.1 174.3 830.2 106.1%

268.2 223.5 655.6 342.7 1490.1 79.5%

207.0 138.0 506.1 299.1 1150.3 -22.8%

94.6 63.0 231.2 136.6 525.4 -54.3%

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon(2006.12)Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 9

VoIP Equipment 2005 vs. 2006 :1,200 1,600

Confidential2006 Forecast

:

2005 Forecast1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 SSW+SG 2008 M edia GW Access 2009

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006

2007 SSW+SG

2008 M edia GW Access

2009

App & SVC(M S, AS)

App & SVC(M S, AS)

250 2005 200 150 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2006

250 200 166.0 150 108.8 100

SSW+SG 223.5

138.0

63.0 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 201010 Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

Source : Ian Yeon (2006.12)

5

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

11

VoIP PBX () 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Assumption 1 : IP-PBX

130,000

70,000

63,000

59,850

56,858

54,015

Assumption 2 : Hybrid

80,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

54,000

54,000

Assumption 3 : Centrex

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

(line) IP-PBX Hybrid IP-Centrex

2006 81,723 60,536 9,080

2007 268,900 165,114 37,740

2008 532,823 279,958 90,309

2009 713,368 339,142 116,946

2010 798,362 309,043 180,275

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2006.12)Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 12

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VoIP PBX PBX Revenue (2006 ~ 2010)800

PBX Line shipment (2006 ~ 2010)1,400,000 1,200,000

600

1,000,000 800,000 600,000

400

200

400,000 200,000

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

IP-PBX

Hybrid

Centrex

IP-PBX

Hybrid

Centrex

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

IP-PBX

57

169

319

406

431

IP-PBX

81,723

268,900

532,823

713,368

798,362

Hybrid

42

107

157

164

167

Hybrid

60,536

165,114

279,958

339,142

309,043

Centrex

5

23

65

91

108

Centrex

9,080

37,740

90,309

116,946

180,275

Source : ETRI(2005.04), Ian Yeon (2006.12)Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved. 13

IP PBX SIP Penetration :45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Other IP SIP

2005 Other IP SIP 90.1% 9.9%

2006 76.6% 23.4%

2007 62.7% 37.3%

2008 48.6% 51.4%

2009 33.8% 66.2%

2010 24.1% 75.9%

Source : Canalys forecast, Converged Telephony Analysis

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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7

IP PBX Convergence :

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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IP PBX Convergence :Applications (besides voice) Driving Convergence ProjectVideoconferencing Contact Centers Audioconferencing Voice only Disaster recovery/ BC RTC Dashboard Mobility Collaborative apps Unifed Communications Wireless integration Presence Distance Learning CRM integration Storage RFID Imaging 2% 2% 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 22% 32% 37%

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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IP PBX Convergence :Primary Drivers for ConvergenceCost Avoidance/Savings Improve Communications/Features/Apps Greenfield Rollout Futureproof Network Replace PBX Enable Mobility Improve Productivity/Collaboration Disaster Recovery Improve Contact Centers Consolidate Management Part of Network Upgrade Simplicity Merger/Acquisition 3.1% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 12.5% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 9.4% 7.8% 7.8% 21.9% 26.6% 26.6% 25.0% 42.2%

0.0%

Copyright 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

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IP PBX Convergence :What Value Does SIP Bring to Convergence Projects?

Application/ desktop integration Handset interoperability/ lower handset prices PBX interoperability38%

52%

52%

Carrier interoperability

19%

Microsoft integration

19%

Wireles