Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by:...

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Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager .

Transcript of Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by:...

Page 1: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Kopernik Global All-Cap4Q 2015 Conference Call

Presented by:

David B. Iben, CFA

CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager

.

Page 2: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Bear Market StrategyA market condition in which the prices ofsecurities are falling, and widespreadpessimism causes the negative sentiment tobe self-sustaining. As investors anticipatelosses in a bear market and selling continues,pessimism only grows.

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Page 3: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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“Buy when others are despondently selling and

sell when others are avidly buying.”

John Templeton

“People are always asking me where the

outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question.

The right question is: Where is the outlook most

miserable?”

John Templeton

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy

when others are fearful.”

Warren Buffett

“The time to buy is when there's blood in the

streets.”

Baron Rothschild

“How much more can I take”

The Go-Gos

“The waiting is the hardest part”

Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers

Relevant Thoughts

Page 4: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Performance Around the Globe (as of January 19, 2016)

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Returns in USD

Location 12 Month 3 Year 5 Year P/EP/Tangible

BookEV/Sales

Venezuela 269.01 1,932.99 14,918.92 38.x 10.48x

Denmark 7.88 41.68 90.97 24.5x 4.2x 2.16x

Ireland 12.42 50.09 78.36 22.x 3.65x 1.67x

United States -

NASDAQ-3.32 42.94 62.00 27.3x 9.62x 2.33x

United States –

Large Cap-8.07 25.26 43.75 17.3x 6.1x 2.02x

New Zealand -13.23 1.38 29.33 19.7x 2.46x 2.04x

Belgium -3.33 19.41 27.76 22.7x 3.16x 1.47x

United States –

Small Cap-15.95 10.77 22.46 33.5x 3.28x 1.51x

Switzerland -11.48 3.94 19.73 17.x 4.89x 2.54x

Japan 0.26 19.75 12.64 17.9x 1.9x 1.13x

Germany -11.18 2.93 10.62 20.5x 3.61x .88x

China -

Shanghai-8.72 22.67 9.20 15.9x 1.94x 1.63x

Mexico -1.51 -10.06 7.54 28.x 6.48x 2.16x

Thailand -25.97 -27.74 2.76 16.6x 2.06x 1.32x

France -7.54 -0.64 -7.16 21.4x 3.9x 1.07x

United Kingdom -14.47 -10.57 -7.62 29.2x 3.09x 1.3x

Sweden -14.07 -10.22 -10.63 16.1x 3.16x 1.86x

China -

Shenzhen-7.79 5.22 -12.85 32.6x 4.12x 2.98x

Finland -5.46 8.94 -14.84 20.9x 2.56x 1.4x

Indonesia -20.37 -29.92 -16.92 25.4x 2.54x 2.31x

South Korea -11.24 -16.66 -17.55 14.x 1.02x .95x

Netherlands -6.56 -3.83 -19.15 3.08x .64x

Returns in USD

Location 12 Month 3 Year 5 Year P/EP/Tangible

BookEV/Sales

Hong Kong -17.94 -17.47 -19.98 8.7x 1.21x 1.69x

Argentina -27.14 13.07 -19.99 10.5x 1.02x 2.05x

Norway -20.98 -28.42 -20.78 1.63x 1.37x

Taiwan -19.77 -12.39 -25.29 12.3x 1.47x .98x

Italy -6.37 -9.13 -25.59 147.4x 1.03x

Australia -21.83 -32.48 -30.65 18.9x 2.5x 2.39x

Spain -20.72 -18.43 -34.30 16.3x 2.15x 1.77x

Nigeria -29.12 -42.67 -36.94 13.8x 1.31x 1.36x

Poland -21.90 -31.41 -37.00 15.1x 1.21x .95x

South Africa -32.43 -37.00 -38.50 34.x 2.5x 2.08x

Canada -31.40 -35.95 -39.14 18.4x 2.51x 2.38x

Austria -7.34 -29.44 -41.13 1.13x 1.08x

Turkey -38.76 -52.60 -45.22 9.2x 1.27x 1.22x

Peru -5.30 -49.54 -46.40

Chile -18.88 -49.15 -49.44

Czech Republic -10.58 -34.80 -49.97 7.1x 1.63x 1.1x

Portugal -12.95 -38.63 -50.64 2.79x 1.35x

Russia -13.87 -58.88 -64.63 9.3x .66x .95x

Columbia -43.37 -68.26 -65.50 14.7x 1.56x 2.39x

Greece -35.27 -52.98 -69.98 .04x .15x

Brazil -47.94 -68.93 -77.53 20.2x 1.32x 1.47x

Ukraine -59.51 -76.19 -92.08 .32x .43x

Source: Bloomberg

Page 5: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

MSCI ACWI ex USA

5

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

MSCI ACWI ex USADecember 31,1999 - January 19, 2015

Source: Bloomberg

Page 6: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

FANG – The New Nifty Fifty?

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$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

Facebook, Amazon, Netfix, GooglePerformance

December 2013 – December 2015

Facebook Amazon Netflix Google

Source: Bloomberg

Page 7: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Gold – Fundamental Disconnect

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$-

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15

Gold and Gold Miners PerformanceGrowth of $1k

May 2006 - December 2015

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF NYSE ARCA GOLD BUGS INDEX Price of Gold

Source: Bloomberg

Page 8: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Oil

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$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

Brent Crude Oil (CO1 Comdty)1988 - Current

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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Oil Fundamentals

Page 10: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Coal

10

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

Australia Thermal Coal (COASNE55 Index)October 2013 - Current

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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Coal Fundamentals

Page 12: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Uranium

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$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Uranium Price2004 - Current

Spot Price Long Term Price

Source: https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price

Page 13: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Uranium – Fundamental Disconnect

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$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

Cameco & UraniumGrowth of $1k

June 2014 - Current

Uranium Cameco Corp

Source: Bloomberg

Page 14: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Baltic Dry Index

14Source: Bloomberg

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Baltic Dry Index1985 - 2015

Page 15: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.

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Page 16: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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Page 17: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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Page 18: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

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With outstanding potentialis “WHEN” the right question?

Page 19: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Buy when they give it away. What are they giving away now? In 1977, we were walkinguptown in New York City with a friend who worked for a prominent trust company. He told usthat the trustees of an estate had just sold a triplex on East End Avenue for $1. The reason?The $3,000 per month maintenance was “depleting the assets of the estate”. We can’timagine the return on that apartment ever since. Around the same time, top Manhattantownhouses were selling for $40,000 – and today are easily worth 1,000 times that. This wasalso the era when two of the greatest real estate investments in Modern American historywere made – the purchase of the Uris properties by the Reichmann’s Olympia & York andthe Irvine Ranch by Don Bren.

Fast forward to the collapse in commodities in the early to mid-1980s. A friend of ours wasthe controller of a major oil company, which had purchased at very high prices, a number ofaluminum and base metal assets during the hyperinflation of the late 1970s. By the mid-1980s, these assets were hemorrhaging losses and my friend was able to purchase from hisemployer an aluminum property in the West at zero cost. Within a few years, thataluminum smelter was generating profits of $100 million a year.

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Source: www.13d.com

Recent Observations by Kiril Sokoloff

Page 20: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Last week, Glencore sold the Cosmos nickel mine for AU$24.5 million. In 2008, XstrataPlc paid AU$3.1 billion for Jubliee Mines to gain control of Cosmos – the Perth-basedcompany’s flagship operation. Last year, Glencore sold the secondary Sinclair project toTalisman Mining for $8 million plus a $2 million contingency. While full accounting is not sostraightforward, in simplest form, the properties were bought and resold 7 years later at a99% loss. Xstrata, which was purchased by Glencore in 2013, acquired Jubilee when nickelwas selling for about $32,000 a metric ton – 2.5 times higher than where it now trades.Bloomberg recently noted that Rio Tinto Group similarly sold Mozambique coal assets lastyear that it bought in 2011 with AU$3.9 billion takeover of Riversdale Mining. The sellingprice? $50 million.

For what its worth, Javier Blas tweeted this week that, based on data from Citi Research,90% of all M&A that miners did since 2007 has been written off. Makes you wonder aboutthe current boom…

It’s interesting to note how little is being written in the West about One Belt, OneRoad. China Development Bank notes that the number of cross-border projects underway inthe Silk Road effort already amount to $980 billion. Reportedly, Asia’s infrastructure needsare close to $8 trillion by 2020.

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Source: www.13d.com

Recent Observations by Kiril Sokoloff

Page 21: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Global All-Cap – Representative Account (as of 12/31/15)

Portfolio weights and characteristics above are based on the holdings of a representative account as of December 31, 2015. Portfolio characteristics, sector and country designations are calculated using data from Bloomberg.

Harmonic weighted average is a method of calculating an average value that lessens the impact of large outliers. Weighted average is a method of calculating an average in which each value is assigned a weight.

The MSCI All Country World Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures 2,491 primarily large and mid cap companies across 23 developed and 23 emerging market countries as of December 31, 2015. The

MSCI All Country World Index is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small cap

companies, and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.

Top Ten CompaniesCountry % of Portfolio

Cameco Corp Canada 5.1

Newcrest Mining Ltd Australia 4.8

Gazprom PAO Russia 4.2

Sberbank of Russia Russia 3.8

Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras Brazil 3.7

Japan Steel Works Ltd Japan 3.6

Electricite de France SA France 3.4

RusHydro PJSC Russia 3.4

Mitsui & Co Ltd Japan 3.3

Kinross Gold Corp Canada 3.2

Portfolio Characteristics

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cons.Disc.

Cons.Staples

Energy Financials HealthCare

Industrials Info.Tech.

Materials Telecom Utilities

% of Portfolio % of MSCI ACWI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada EmergingMarkets

Europe ex UK Japan Pacific exJapan

UK US

% of Portfolio % of MSCI ACWI

Portfolio Region Weights

Portfolio Sector Weights

Capitalization Portfolio Benchmark

Weighted Average $7.92B $94.74B

Median $1.57B $8.64B

Portfolio Portfolio MSCI ACWI

Weighted Harmonic Harmonic

Trailing P/E 15.82 14.38 16.75

Trailing P/CF 1.87 2.89 5.09

Trailing P/B 0.48 0.49 1.91

Trailing P/TBV 0.52 0.53 2.17

Trailing EV/S 0.81 1.16 1.68

Yield (TTM) 1.91 1.65 1.55

Page 22: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

THANK YOU

Q&A Session

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A copy of this presentation is available on www.kopernikglobal.com.

Page 23: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Appendix

Page 24: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Kopernik Global Investors, LLC (“Kopernik”) is a global equity investment management specialist, organized to ensure a culture centered on client success

• Leadership and ownership by investment professionals

• 100% employee owned

• Equity participation for all professionals

• Principals invest alongside clients

• Capacity to be limited, enhancing return potential

• Founded by David Iben – July 2013

Mutual Funds37%

Private Funds

7%

UCITS7%

Separate Accounts49%

Centering on Client Success

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Total Managed and Advisory Only Assets by Type (As of 12/31/2015)

Assets as of December 31, 2015 are preliminary.

Managed Assets

Mutual Funds $562.81 MM

Private Funds $103.50 MM

UCITS $116.12 MM

Separate Accounts $751.71 MM

Total Firm AUM $1,534.14 MM

Advisory Only Assets

Separate Accounts $72.99 MM

Total Managed and Advisory Only Assets: $1,607.13 MM

Total Firm AUM

Page 25: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Investing with a Distinctive Philosophy

The likely outcome of a distinctive philosophy consistently implemented by skilled investors –sustainable investment success and low correlations to other managers

• We view ourselves as owners of businesses:

- Market inefficiencies present numerous opportunities to identify quality businesses that we believe are mispriced

- Independent research of a company’s business, industry supply/demand, competitive positioning and management uncovers

opportunities

• We predicate our intensive, original research on:

- A global perspective to enhance understanding of markets and companies

- A long-term investment horizon to allow for inherent value to be realized

- Value as a prerequisite, not a philosophy

- Bottom-up, fundamental analysis to gain a thorough understanding of a company’s business and valuation

- Industry-tailored valuation metrics to assess distinct industry characteristics and success drivers

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Page 26: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

Uncovering Value with Industry Specialists

• Far-reaching investment experience in global markets with a long record of success

• Searching for market anomalies with industry specialists who have diverse backgrounds and distinct perspectives

• Group vetting to challenge ideas and develop high conviction

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Page 27: Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015... · Kopernik Global All-Cap 4Q 2015 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager. Bear Market Strategy A market

The information presented herein is proprietary to Kopernik Global Investors, LLC. This material is approved for a presentation to authorized individuals only and,

accordingly, this material is not to be reproduced in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by Kopernik Global Investors, LLC.

Please consider all risks carefully before investing. The accounts managed according to the Global All-Cap investment strategy are subject to certain risks such as

market, investment style, interest rate, deflation, and illiquidity risk. Investments in small and mid-capitalization companies also involve greater risk and portfolio

price volatility than investments in larger capitalization stocks. Investing in non-U.S. markets, including emerging and frontier markets, involves certain additional

risks, including potential currency fluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity, less

disclosure, and the potential for market volatility, expropriation, confiscatory taxation, and social, economic and political instability. Investments in energy and

natural resources companies are especially affected by developments in the commodities markets, the supply of and demand for specific resources, raw materials,

products and services, the price of oil and gas, exploration and production spending, government regulation, economic conditions, international political

developments, energy conservation efforts and the success of exploration projects. There can be no assurances that investment objectives will be achieved.

Kopernik Global Investors, LLC is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

This document, as of December 31, 2015 is descriptive of how the Kopernik team manages the Global All-Cap strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategy’s

investment performance objectives will be achieved. This profile is not legally binding on Kopernik Global Investors, LLC or its affiliates.

© 2015 Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | Two Harbour Place | 302 Knights Run Avenue Suite 1225 | Tampa, Florida 33602 | 813.314.6100 | www.kopernikglobal.com

Important Information

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