Kobi marom presentation

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Slideshow that accompanied Kobi Marom's talk at the October 30 session of WOFI - TNG

Transcript of Kobi marom presentation

  • 1.The Arab SpringUnstablesituationSunni vs. Shia in the Middle EastDecline in USpolicy & influence in the region Iranian policy andinfluence The conflict with TurkeyIsraeli strategy and the challenges Israelfaces today

2. The Middle East

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3. Sitting on the edge of a Volcano Recent events in Syria:Which route will be taken ? Will Assad survive ?Iran and Hezbollah effortsto assist the current regimeThe influence of the recent eventson Hezbollah and HamasAbsence of LeadershipThe International Community Israels policy and interest-An Opportunity ? 4. Lebanon Iran and Hezbollah obtained majority in theparliament and rule the countryThe arming process continuesHezbollah is facing two challenges:The legal demand following Hariris murder.Assads declining situation The silence along the border:Israels deterrence 5. Egypt Military Regime: unstable situation Mubaraks Egypt: moderate actor in the region The rise of theMuslim BrotherhoodGood relationships between Hamas and the current leadership which allowed the Shalit DealIsraels concerns: Thepeace agreement No government control in the Sinai Peninsula an open gate for terror Egypt returns to the front 6. The Palestinian Arena How theSeptember DeclarationandThe November Voteinfluence the fieldThe challenges and opportunities for IsraelWill current circumstances impact the process?The Palestinian agenda was pushed asidedue to the Arab SpringThe Future : Israel will continue to suffer missile attacks from Gaza 7. The Shalit DealHow will Shalit deal effect Israel in its struggle against terror - mainly Hezbollah and Hamas.Does Israel need to change its strategy associated with kidnapped soldiers ?The Israeli dilemma :Commitment to soldiersVS.Risks taken for future terror attacks andthe heavy price in human lives.How does Shalit deal effect the global struggle against terror; Al Qaeda, Iran and other terror organizations. 8. Unstable situation in the near futureDecrease in US presenceIncreasing Iranian influence Concerns:Relationships with Egypt & Turkey The Bottom Line