KITWe

Chain

Knowledge-Invention-Technology-Wealth (KITWe)

A System Dynamics basic model

Luciano Gallón ([email protected])

Colombia Spain

Murcia, 2007.06.22

Education

UsefulSurroundings

MotivationUsefulInformation

ProblemsIdentification

IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment

TechnologyInvestment

Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData

Knowledge/TechnologyInvestment Factor

Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost

KnowledgeApplication

KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

International Sociological Association (ISA)

7th International Conference of Sociocybernetics

mailto:[email protected]

©2007 Luciano Gallon / RC51-7thICS-Murcia2007 2 de 20

Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Intention

Learn by sharing

I will try to be the less subjective I can !


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Agenda

• Two Questions

• Definitions

• The Model

• Simulations

• Conclusions

• A final thought

• References


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Two Questions

• First

– Which would be

• a basic systemic and dynamic model

• of the system made up of the elements:

– Knowledge

– Invention

– Technology and

– Wealth

– (which will be denominated KITWe Chain)?


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Two Questions

• Second

– What behavior can be

• obtained from the elements of the model so that the

– Characteristics

– Relationships

– Causes and

– Consequences

• of the management decisions associated to

– the intervention of the surroundings and

– projects of knowledge or technology

• that modify the behavior of the wealth can be better

included or understood?


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Two Questions

• From another point of view

– We’re looking for a model that

• helps to understand and

• to predict

• failures and successes

• in technology projects


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Definitions

• Knowledge– Data and information useful application

• Invention– Knowledge based new data and information useful

application

• Technology– Utility (useful use) related to tools that mediate between

human activity and its environment

• Innovation– Technology improvement by invention with a reproducible

registry of it

• Wealth– A measurement of human needs’ integral satisfaction


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

The Model

• The System Dynamics tool

– Textual Description

– Causal Diagram

– Equations

– Forrester Diagram

– Simulation (with www.vensim.com)


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

The Model

• The main question– How behaves wealth depending on the relationship

between knowledge investment and technology investment?

• Suppose a context composed by– useful data and information

• Suppose (as a simplification) that– innovation exist as a parameter affecting fluxes in the same

way as will be pictured

• Dimensionless variables and constants

• 36 months behavior observation– Further model developments could be made with 60, 120 or

even 240 months observation


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

The Model

Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

The Simulations

• Focus Factors

– Knowledge_Investment_Factor (KIF)

– Technology_Investment_Factor (TIF)

• Extreme conditions

– KIF / TIF = 0.1

– KIF / TIF = 0.9

• What happens?


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

The SimulationsConocimiento

10

9.5

9

8.5

8

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Conocimiento : Current

Tecnologia

4

3

2

1

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Tecnologia : Current

Invencion

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Invencion : Current

Riqueza

10

7.5

5

2.5

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Riqueza : Current

Tecnologia

40

30

20

10

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Tecnologia : Current

Conocimiento

400

300

200

100

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Conocimiento : Current

Riqueza

100

75

50

25

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Riqueza : Current

Invencion

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Time (Month)

Dm

nl

Invencion : Current

KIF / TIF = 0.1 KIF / TIF = 0.9

Invention

Knowledge

Technology

Wealth


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Conclusions

• Tendencies was defined using common sense

– no historical data or personal experiences with detailed information

– a next model version could be made with less subjectivity

• Use of dimensionless variables and constants easy the modeling work

– a next model version will need appropriate dimensions (which ones?)


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Conclusions

• These first basic model’s results confirm the hypothesis that without a careful investment balance between knowledge and technology you can end with serious consequences on wealth– It is observed that with a surcharge towards the

investment in technology a very early gold stage is had that leads finally to the catastrophe

– however, with a surcharge towards the investment in knowledge a very slow stage of growth is had that leads finally to an accelerated and virtuous growth of all the levels of the wealth

– Intermediate relations of FIC/FIT (0.3 to 0.7) show a system with better levels of balance


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

A final thought

• Every minute of this presentation (even every minute of this conference!)

– Population on developed countries added

2 more humans to planet earth

– Population on developing countries added

151 more humans to planet earth

Source www.prb.org/Articles/2006/WorldPopulationClock2006.aspx


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

References

• Gallón, L. & Robledo, J. (2004). Aumentando la inteligencia de la organización mediante el descubrimiento de conocimiento en bases de datos. Medellín: Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.

• Martín, J. (2006). Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de sistemas. Barcelona: Juan Martín García.

• Max-Neef, M. A., Elizalde, A., & Hopenhayn, M. (1994). Desarrollo a escala humana: Conceptos, aplicaciones y algunas reflexiones (1a. ed.). Barcelona; Montevideo: Icaria; Nordan-Comunidad.

• Ventana Systems Inc. (1996-2007). Vensim Software. Harvard, USA.


Education

UsefulSurroundings



IdeasGeneration

KnowledgeInvestment


Health

Cultural

Financial

Environment

Policy

UsefulData


Innovation

KnowledgeDiscovery

Knowledge

Invention

Technology

Wealth

Knowledge Lost


KnowledgeWasteful

KnowledgeRegistry

WealthProduction

WealthDestruction

Obsolescence

Thank you !

KITWe

Education

Transcript of KITWe