Kína tækifæri í austri Magnús Bjarnason

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Kína tækifæri í austri Magnús Bjarnason. Iceland generates higher export revenue per capita from fisheries than any other independent country in the world, it is a key strategic goal to establish a solid infrastructure for export from Iceland to China. Contributed 11 per cent of GDP - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Kína tækifæri í austri Magnús Bjarnason

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Kna tkifri austri Magns Bjarnason Iceland generates higher export revenue per capita from fisheries than any other independent country in the world, it is a key strategic goal to establish a solid infrastructure for export from Iceland to China.

Source: McKinsey Iceland Report 2012Contributed 11 per cent of GDPGenerated more than of all export revenuesDirectly employes over 9,000 people2Global footprint with 600m in salesKey global driversMajor global followersLess connected states USA: Icelandic brand plus new business developements Europe: UK, Bene-Lux, Spain, France & Italy Asia: China & Japan Source: Bain MTG Analysis, October 2011Icelandic China

Based in Qingdao 15 people in sales and administration and 90 people in our newly opened factory

BRC approved and technical expertise required to offer service to retailers and foodservice customers in the UK & AsiaIcelandic sells 8,000 mt of fish products 2012 / 2013 into the Chinese market , 80% sold in bulk (containers), 20% in pallets (boxes) 25m in salesIcelandic plans to grow on the back of the new FTA providing superior seafood products to the Chinese market and create a unique access for producers in Iceland to the fast growing Chinese market

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Icelandic China Business(%)Red Fish (Hong Yu )

Norwegian Mackerel (Nuo Wei Hai Yu )

Greenland Halibut (Bimuyu )

Capelin (Duochunyu )

Cod (Zhenxueyu )

Haddock (Heixianyu )

HerringLarge HalibutHeads TailsBody

Small HalibutSold to Chinese restaurants

MackerelUS$2.5-US$3kgSold to small processorsJapanese Restaurants

CapelinRoe sold to small processors and Japanese restaurantsWhole sold to wholesale100100100100DomesticRe-Export10,00010,00015,000600(tons)Iceland Import for Re-Process : Major SpeciesIceland Import for Domestic Distribution : Major SpeciesMackerelHalibut1006,000The Icelandic China business today is Mackerel, Greenland Halibut and Capelin

China Consuming Class(millions people)7005k-12k10012k+ Source:InterChina400Consumption is being driven by increasing numbers of middle class consumers200152213CAGR(%)Consuming class = Per capital US$5k plus at 2005 valuesThis is largely driven by urbanization 20 million new urban residents every yearSource: China City Planning & Design Institute.20201002003004005006007008009002009201020112012201320142015201620172018201945%50%60%Urban residents(Million people)Urbanization rate(%)55%40%51%690m56%790mFor the first time, there are more people residing in the cities China Urbanization: 2009-2020 InterChina Consulting7 InterChina Consulting7

CAGR: 14%CAGR: 13%CAGR: 18%CAGR: 19%Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)CAGR: 15%CAGR: 13%CAGR: 19%CAGR: 17%Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)Source: China Statistical Yearbook.Source: China Statistical Yearbook.YOY: 16%YOY: 18%YOY: 13%YOY: 18%T2+T3 CitiesT1 CitiesInterior (West, Central)Coastal (East, Northeast)The strongest growth is from the smaller cities and interior regionsRetail sales in smaller cities are accelerating ahead of the bigger cities and retail sales in interior regions are increasingly tracking coastal regions InterChina Consulting8

4 star hotelInternational Retail ChainKFCNational Supermarket ChainExample: Taizhou in ZhejiangEven in Tier 4 cities we are seeing the impact of growth and modernization`BeijingXun RiverHuang RiverYangtze RiverGuangzhouQingdaoChengduDalianXianFuzhouShanghaiWuhanTianjinXiamenJinanZhengzhouChangshaShenzhenChongqingShenyang

Regional ClustersNumber of Cities in the clusterYangzte River Delta (YRD)58Hebei Shandong (incl. Beijing/Tianjin)63South (incl. Guangdong)37Henan/Shaanxi/Shanxi31Sichuan (incl. Chengdu/Chongqing)31Hunan/Hubei47Anhui/Jiangxi20North East22HefeiBecause these new consumers are increasingly spread across 100s of cities it is useful to think of China as a collection of marketsTier 1=6Tier 2=32Tier 3=264Tier 4=374China is a cluster of marketsChina : Regional Clusters--This is another way to get a sense as to where investment will be in the coming years. That is, don't view opportunities only at the city levelyou will lose the flavor of what is really happening. Think of China as bunch of regions offering sufficient scale opportunities on their own.--Total investment in the 11 clusters identified will not increase in terms of percentage, but the scale will be super huge.--The idea is that you can start focusing on the hubs of the different clusters and plan a gradual expansion into spoke cities in the same clusterChina restaurant formats growing at ~13% p.a.; FSR accounts for ~75% of the marketNote: Other incl. 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizz consumer foodservicesSource: Euromonitor; Bain analysis13%Customer segments/accounts- restaurantWestern chained FSR/QSR market is more concentrated compared to Asian onesNote: Chained restaurants in other segment (100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizza consumer foodservices) not included here (total size is minimal)Source: Euromonitor; Bain analysisCustomer segments/accounts- restaurantChina retail: Strong growth in retail market; modern trade gaining shareCustomer segments/accounts- retailSource: Annual reports; GS Supermarkets report; Access Asia; Euromonitor; Statistical Yearbook of China Chain Stores; Expert Interviews; Lit research; Bain analysis; EIU exchange rates Modern trade Note: Includes all large supermarkets (>6000 sq meters)Source: Bain experienceRetail chains: fragmented with national players and many different regional/provincial playersCustomer segments/accounts

Top 12 Imported Species in 303(US$m)US$/TonTons(000s)~US$2.7b or ~80%The top 12 species account for about 80% of frozen fish imports(1)Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2)Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3)Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource:China Customs1,2992,2252,7021,6531,8041,6129,5242,331648.4248.3125.281.971.698.212.850.01,8596111,98062.1176.850.828.03,473(1)(2)(3)

Top 12 Imported Species in 303(000 tons)Iceland QuotaHow Much Stays?(1)(2)Comment(3)Iceland quota overlaps with some imported species that China wants(1)Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2)Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3)Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource:China CustomsN/A270.3N/AN/AN/A1.4