Kína tækifæri í austri

Magnús Bjarnason

Iceland generates higher export revenue per capita from fisheries than any other independent country in the world, it is a key strategic goal to establish a solid infrastructure for export from Iceland to China.

Source: McKinsey Iceland Report 2012

• Contributed 11 per cent of GDP

• Generated more than ¼ of all export

revenues

• Directly employes over 9,000 people

2

Global footprint with € 600m in sales

Key global drivers

Major global followers

Less connected states

USA: Icelandic brand plus new business

developements

Europe: UK, Bene-Lux, Spain, France &

Italy

Asia: China & Japan

Source: Bain MTG Analysis, October 2011

Icelandic China

• Based in Qingdao 15 people in sales and administration and 90 people in our newly opened factory

• BRC approved and technical expertise required to offer service to retailers and foodservice customers in the UK & Asia

• Icelandic sells 8,000 mt of fish products 2012 / 2013 into the Chinese market , 80% sold in bulk (containers), 20% in pallets (boxes) – € 25m in sales

• Icelandic plans to grow on the back of the new FTA providing superior seafood products to the Chinese market and create a unique access for producers in Iceland to the fast growing Chinese market

4

40

0

110

25

60

100

75

9990

Cod WholeCapelin

CapelinRoe

Icelandic China Business

(%)

• Red Fish (Hong Yu 红鱼 )

• Norwegian Mackerel (Nuo Wei Hai Yu 挪威海鱼 )

• Greenland Halibut (Bimuyu 比目鱼 )

• Capelin (Duochunyu 多春鱼 )

• Cod (Zhenxueyu 真鳕鱼 )

• Haddock (Heixianyu 黑线鱼 )

• Herring

• Large Halibut– Heads – Tails– Body

• Small Halibut– Sold to Chinese

restaurants

• Mackerel– US$2.5-US$3kg– Sold to small processors– Japanese Restaurants

• Capelin– Roe sold to small

processors and Japanese restaurants

– Whole sold to wholesale

100 100 100 100

Domestic

Re-Export

10,000 10,000 15,000 600(tons)

Iceland Import for Re-Process : Major Species

Iceland Import for Domestic Distribution : Major Species

Mackerel Halibut

100

6,000

The Icelandic China business today is Mackerel, Greenland Halibut and Capelin

95180

350

600

5

20

50

100

2005 2010 2015 2020

China Consuming Class(millions people)

700

5k-12k

10012k+

Source: InterChina

400

Consumption is being driven by increasing numbers of middle class consumers

200

15

22

13

CAGR(%)

Consuming class = Per capital US$5k plus at 2005 values

This is largely driven by urbanization … 20 million new urban residents every year

Source: China City Planning & Design Institute.

20

20

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

45%

50%

60%

Urban residents(Million people)

Urbanization rate(%)

55%

40%

51%690m

56%790m

For the first time, there are more people residing in the cities

China Urbanization: 2009-2020

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

11.000

12.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CAGR: 14%

CAGR: 13%

CAGR: 18%

CAGR: 19%

Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)

CAGR: 15%

CAGR: 13%

CAGR: 19%

CAGR: 17%

Retail Sales Of Consumer Goods(RMB Billion)

Source: China Statistical Yearbook. Source: China Statistical Yearbook.

YOY: 16%

YOY: 18%

YOY: 13%

YOY: 18%

T2+T3 Cities

T1 Cities

Interior (West, Central)

Coastal (East, Northeast)

The strongest growth is from the smaller cities and interior regions

Retail sales in smaller cities are accelerating ahead of the bigger cities …

… and retail sales in interior regions are increasingly tracking coastal regions

4 star hotel

International Retail Chain

KFC

National Supermarket Chain

Example: Taizhou in Zhejiang

Even in Tier 4 cities we are seeing the impact of growth and modernization

`

Beijing

Xun River

Huang River

Yangtze River

Guangzhou

Qingdao

Chengdu

Dalian

Xian

Fuzhou

ShanghaiWuhan

Tianjin

Xiamen

Jinan

Zhengzhou

Changsha

Shenzhen

Chongqing

Shenyang

Regional ClustersNumber of Cities in

the cluster

Yangzte River Delta (YRD) 58

Hebei Shandong (incl. Beijing/Tianjin) 63

South (incl. Guangdong)

37

Henan/Shaanxi/Shanxi 31

Sichuan (incl. Chengdu/Chongqing)

31

Hunan/Hubei 47

Anhui/Jiangxi 20

North East 22

Hefei

Because these new consumers are increasingly spread across 100’s of cities it is useful to think of China as a collection of markets

Tier 1 = 6

Tier 2 = 32

Tier 3 = 264

Tier 4 = 374

China is a cluster of markets

China : Regional Clusters

China restaurant formats growing at ~13% p.a.; FSR accounts for ~75% of the market

Note: Other incl. 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizz consumer foodservicesSource: Euromonitor; Bain analysis

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2005

1,254

2006

1,392

2007

1,572

2008

1,822

2009

2,006

2010

2,350

2011

2,670

2012

Full-

Se

rvic

e

Rest

au

ran

ts

Fast

Food

2,910

13%

China restaurant market size breakdown (RMB B)

Cafés/Bars

Street Stalls

/Kiosks

Other

12%

13%

10%

-3%

(05-12)

CAGR

13%

Customer segments/accounts- restaurant

Western chained FSR/QSR market is more concentrated compared to Asian ones

0

20

40

60

80

100%

2012 China chained restaurant market size

(RMB B)

Asian full-service

Xiao Wei Yang

Little Sheep

Dezhuang

Taoranju

South Beauty

Quanjude

Other

102

Pizza

Hut

Babeila

Papa

John's

Other

14

Ajisen

Ramen

Kungfu

Daniang Dumpling

CSC

Yoshinoya

Other

14

Western fast food

KFC

McDonald's

Dicos

cnHLS

Other

80

Cafés/bars

UBC

Café

Starbucks

C Straits Café

McCafé

DIO

Costa Coffee

Other

14

Western

full-service

Asian

fast food

Yonghe King

Total =

RMB225B

Note: Chained restaurants in ‘other’ segment (100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias, and pizza consumer foodservices) not included here (total size is minimal)Source: Euromonitor; Bain analysis

Customer segments/accounts- restaurant

China retail: Strong growth in retail market; modern trade gaining share

Customer segments/accounts- retail

Source: Annual reports; GS Supermarkets report; Access Asia; Euromonitor; Statistical Yearbook of China Chain Stores; Expert Interviews; Lit research; Bain analysis; EIU exchange rates

0

2

4

6

8

10 T

2003

2.8

2004

3.1

2005

3.4

2006

3.8

2007

4.4

2008

5.0

2009

5.7

2010

6.5

2011

7.2

2012

8.1

22%

15%

28%

18%

12%

CAGR

12% 19%14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18% 18% 18%

( )China retail market value RMB Tn

Tra

dit

ion

al tr

ad

e

Hyper

Super

CVS

Warehouse clubs

(03-12)

13%

Share of MT

Hyper

Super

CVS

Warehouse clubs

Traditional trade

Modern trade

Note: Includes all large supermarkets (>6000 sq meters)Source: Bain experience

Retail chains: fragmented with national players and many different regional/provincial players

Customer segments/accounts

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Xinyijia

Walmart/

Trustmart

RT-Mart

NGS

Metro

Lianhua

Letian

CRE

Carrefour

BJ Hualian

Auchan

TESCO

Others

~70

Yongwang

Xinyijia

/Walmart

Trustmart

Tianhong

-RT Mart

Renrenle

Metro

Lotus

CRE

Carrefour

TESCO

~80

/ Walmart Trustmart

-RT Mart

NGS

Metro

Lotus

Lianhua

Hualian GMS

Carrefour

Auchan

~60

Wumart

/Walmart

Trustmart

-RT Mart

NGS

Metro

Lianhua

CRE

Carrefour

~45

Yonghui

Wumart

/Walmart

Trustmart

Metro

Lotus

Huapu

Carrefour

BJ

Hualian

Auchan

~40

Yingzuo

SD WF

-RT Mart

Liqun

Jiajiayue

~30

Wuhan

ZS

W

uh

an

Zh

on

gb

ai

W

uh

an

Wu

sha

ng

Walmart/

Trustmart

~25

Yon

gh

ui

Xinhuadu

/W

alm

art

Trustm

art

Metro

~20

/W

alm

art

Tru

stm

art

-RT

Mart

Da

sha

ng

Carrefour

TESCO

Xin

yijia

Tianhong

Guobao

Bubugao

~15

Beig

uo

Yonghui

W

uh

an

Zh

on

gba

i

/ W

alm

art

Trustm

art

~10

Yonghui

Wumart

/Walmart

Trustmart

-RT Mart

Renrenle

Lianhua

Hongkelong

Dashang

CRE

Carrefour

BJ Hualian

Auchan

TESCO

Others

~100

China hypermarket and large supermarket revenue 2012 (RMB Bn)

Lotus

TESCO

Auchan

TESCO

~20 ~15

Total =~530 Bn

97,3

100,6

107,9

115,5

116,5

121,8

158,2

129,2

135,4

315,9

552,7

842,5

Halibut

Skipjack

Herring

Ribbon

Haddock

Fish Liver & Roe

Mackerel

Plaice

Flatfish

Salmon

Cod

Pollock

Top 12 Imported Species in 303(US$m) US$/TonTons

(000’s)

~US$2.7b or ~80%

The top 12 species account for about 80% of frozen fish imports

(1) Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2) Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3) Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource: China Customs

1,299

2,225

2,702

1,653

1,804

1,612

9,524

2,331

648.4

248.3

125.2

81.9

71.6

98.2

12.8

50.0

1,859

611

1,980

62.1

176.8

50.8

28.0 3,473

(1)

(2)

(3)

13

28

50

50

62

72

82

98

125

177

238

648

Fish Liver & Roe

Halibut

Skipjack

Haddock

Ribbon

Plaice

Flatfish

Mackerel

Salmon

Herring

Cod

Pollock

Top 12 Imported Species in 303(000’ tons) Iceland

QuotaHow Much

Stays?

(1)

(2)

Comment

(3)

Iceland quota overlaps with some imported species that China wants

(1) Includes Atlantic, Pacific, Greenland, Blue, Black (2) Includes Atlantic, Sockeye and other (3) Excludes Halibut, Plaice, Turbot, SoleSource: China Customs

N/A

270.3

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.4

<10%

20%

50%

15%

40%

?

?

90%

Cod, Saithe, Blue Whiting, Russian, Norway

American plaice, plaice

But can Source

31

13.5

Nil

?

90%

10%

Herring, Loophole 1,2

Greenland Halibut

190

Lemon sole

6.4

But can Source

Attract and retain top talent with expert knowledge of seafood and consumer behavior

Best-in-Class

operations, with focus on

efficiency, quality and flexibility

Unique access to the seafood

resource in the North Atlantic

through ownership and strategic

alliances

Market driven with a deep

understanding of consumers needs

and trends

Innovated seafood category manager with focus on R&D throughout the value chain

17

Icelandic inspires consumers in its coremarkets to eat more quality fish from sustainable

resources

Icelandic Group VisionBuilt on our Core Competences

China is our growth marketChina is our growth market