Presentation to the Yunnan Forestry Visiting Delegation to the Faculty of

Forestry, UBC, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, April29th, 2005

ByBy

J. P. (Hamish) KimminsJ. P. (Hamish) Kimmins

Professor of Forest EcologyProfessor of Forest Ecology

Senior Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Senior Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem ModellingModelling

Faculty of Forestry, UBCFaculty of Forestry, UBC

James Peter (Hamish) Kimmins

Professor of Forest Ecology

Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Modelling

Director, Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Laboratory,

Department of Forest Sciences

Faculty of Forestry,

Forest Sciences Center

2424 Main Mall, UBC,

Vancouver, B.C., Canada

V6T 1Z4

Member, UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and

Technology (COMEST). Chair, Ethics of Energy Sub-commission. COMEST

representative on UNESCO's Task Force on Environmental Ethics

Honorary Professor, Nanjing Forestry University

Web pages: http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/forestmodels/,

http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/modelresearch/

tel: 604-822-3549, sect. 604-822-6018

fax: 604-822-9133

email: hamish.kimmins@ubc.ca

Ecosystem Management Ecosystem Management ModellingModelling

EcologicallyEcologically--based Decision Support Systems based Decision Support Systems

for Forestryfor Forestry

A stand-level foundation for sustainable forest

management in the face of environmental change

Hamish KimminsHamish Kimmins

Canada Research Chair in Modeling the Sustainability of ForestsCanada Research Chair in Modeling the Sustainability of Forests

Professor of Forest EcologyProfessor of Forest Ecology

Department of Forest Sciences,Department of Forest Sciences,

Faculty of ForestryFaculty of Forestry

Coastal Douglas-fir Zone –

dry, warm summers; wet, mild winters. Maritime(oceanic),

semi-Mediterranean (subtropical) climate

CanadaCanada’’s s ““banana beltbanana belt””

Douglas-fir, Grand fir,

Arbutus, Garry oak,

bigleaf maple

Low elevationLow elevation

Fire, root rots,

drought

Vancouver

Coastal Western Hemlock Zone –

wet cool winters, generally mild to warm summers.

Coastal, montane climate

CanadaCanada’’s temperate rainforests temperate rainforest

Western hemlock , Douglas-fir,

amabilis fir, western redcedar

Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation

Wind, landslide

Mountain Hemlock Zone –

long, cool–cold winters, deep snowpack (2-10m), short warm

summers. Coastal subalpine climate

CanadaCanada’’s west coast , s west coast , ““warm warm snowpacksnowpack””subalpinesubalpine

forest. The west coast ski zoneforest. The west coast ski zone

Mountain hemlock, amabilis fir,

yellow cedar

Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation

Avalanche, snowpress

Ponderosa Pine and Grassland Zones –

Very dry, long hot summer, relatively mild to cool winters.

Semi-arid, subcontinental climate

CanadaCanada’’s semis semi--desert forest/western grasslandsdesert forest/western grasslands

Low elevation Low elevation –– valley bottomsvalley bottoms

Ponderosa pine, Douglas fir,

juniper, sage, grass

Fire, drought, browsing

Interior Douglas-fir Zone –

Relatively short cool to cold winters; long, hot, dry

summers. Sub-continental climate

CanadaCanada’’s western savannah forests western savannah forest

Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, ponderosa

pine, western larch, grand fir,

western birch, aspen

Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation

Fire, insects (bark beetles,

defoliators), root rots

Montane Spruce Zone –

Long, cold, snowy winters, warm summers; relatively dry.

Subcontinental, montane climate

Medium to high elevation plateausMedium to high elevation plateaus

Interior spruce, subalpine fir, lodgepole

pine, Douglas-fir, aspen

Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation

Fire, insects (bark

beetles, defoliators)

Engelmann Spruce Subalpine fir Zone –

Long, cold to very cold, snowy winters; short warm summers with

frequent frost, dry to humid. Continental – subcontinental

subalpine climate

The interior, cold The interior, cold snowpacksnowpack, , subalpinesubalpine forestforest

The interior ski zoneThe interior ski zone

Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir,

lodgepole pine, whitebark pine,

subalpine larch

Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation

Fire, insects

Interior Cedar-Hemlock Zone –

wet, mild to cool winters; warm, relatively moist summers.

Subcontinental, humid climate

The interior wet belt forestThe interior wet belt forest

Western redcedar, western

hemlock, Douglas-fir,

lodgepole pine

Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation

Fire, defoliators

Definition of ForestryDefinition of Forestry

•• The art (skill), practice, science and The art (skill), practice, science and

business of managing forest stands business of managing forest stands

and forested landscapes to sustain an and forested landscapes to sustain an

ecologically possible and socially ecologically possible and socially

desired balance of values and desired balance of values and

environmental services from that environmental services from that

landscape.landscape.

The Two Responsibilities of ForestryThe Two Responsibilities of Forestry

1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the

desired balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services

from that forest changes.from that forest changes.

2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new

practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and

sociology of the desired values and services over sociology of the desired values and services over

ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.

How do we judge what is consistent with the How do we judge what is consistent with the

ecology of the values?ecology of the values?

Silviculture Systems

A continuum of ecological disturbance

Comparison between natural Comparison between natural

disturbance and silviculturedisturbance and silviculture

West coast of Vancouver Island in an West coast of Vancouver Island in an unroadedunroaded, unmanaged area, unmanaged area

Wildfire with salvage logging, near Wildfire with salvage logging, near CranbrookCranbrook, southeastern BC, southeastern BC

Cathedral Grove, Vancouver Island after the l997 windstormCathedral Grove, Vancouver Island after the l997 windstorm

1906 windstorm Pt McNeil, N Vancouver Island1906 windstorm Pt McNeil, N Vancouver Island

Mountain pine beetle outbreak, The Flathead, southeastern BC.Mountain pine beetle outbreak, The Flathead, southeastern BC.

Paradigms for a New Forestry

•Ecosystem management

•Adaptive management

•Zonation

•Variable retention

•Natural range of variation

•Results-based vs regulation

•Monitoring/certification

All need

forecasting

tools and

decision-support

systems

Decision Support Systems in Support

of Sustainable Forestry

• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are

ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.

Levels of biological

organization

Levels of biological

integration

Ecosystem Understanding andUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction EcosystemEcosystem

Community UnderstandingUnderstanding

Population UnderstandingUnderstanding

Individual UnderstandingUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction IndividualIndividual

Organ systems UnderstandingUnderstanding

Organs, tissues UnderstandingUnderstanding

Cell UnderstandingUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction CellCell

Sub-cellular UnderstandingUnderstanding

The need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTION

Function of level

Tools to Forecast Succession and its

Management

• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are

ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.

• Should explicitly represent the key processes – the fundamentals

of production ecology, and key population and community

processes

Productive Capacity of EcosystemsProductive Capacity of Ecosystems

Leaf area and photosynthetic

efficiency

Net photosynthesis

Net primary production

Net biomass accumulation

Harvestable biomass/energy(Humans or other animals)Humans or other animals)

Light

Water

Nutrients

Carbon

allocation

Solar energy

Respiration

Litterfall, plant death,

root death, herbivory

Unharvested

biomass/energy

6. Tools to Forecast Succession and

its Management

• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are

ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.

• Should explicitly represent the key processes – the fundamentals

of production ecology, and key population and community

processes

• Should be cross-scale - stand-level models should be linked to

landscape models in meta-models

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework

Merchantable Merchantable

VolumeVolume

Ecosystem C Ecosystem C

StorageStorage

Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))

Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub

Cover (%)Cover (%)

ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation

StandStand--level Modellevel Model

(FORECAST)(FORECAST)

ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model

(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model

((SimForSimFor))

Visualization Visualization

SoftwareSoftware

PolygonPolygon--

BasedBasedRasterRaster--

BasedBased

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Stand level ecosystem management models:

AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST

Non-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass

Timber management table:

•• A management oriented, ecosystemA management oriented, ecosystem--level level modellingmodelling frameworkframework

•• Uses the hybrid simulation approach: Uses the hybrid simulation approach:

empirical historical bioassay + process simulationempirical historical bioassay + process simulation

•• Major focus is the assessment of the sustainability of a varietyMajor focus is the assessment of the sustainability of a variety of of

social and environmental values under alternative stand social and environmental values under alternative stand

management strategiesmanagement strategies

ORECASTORECASTFF

•• Site preparationSite preparation

•• Planting / Planting /

Regeneration*Regeneration*

•• Weed controlWeed control

•• Stocking controlStocking control

•• PruningPruning

•• Intermediate harvestsIntermediate harvests

•• Final harvestsFinal harvests

•• Utilization levelUtilization level

•• FertilizationFertilization

•• Nurse cropsNurse crops

•• Alternating SpeciesAlternating Species

•• Mixed speciesMixed species

•• Rotation lengthRotation length

•• Seedling size and qualitySeedling size and quality

•• Wildfire / broadcast burnWildfire / broadcast burn

•• Insect defoliationInsect defoliation

•• Wildlife browsingWildlife browsing

•• Organic waste recyclingOrganic waste recycling

•• Clearcutting / patch cutClearcutting / patch cut

•• Partial harvesting / Partial harvesting /

shelterwoodshelterwood

anagementanagement and other events which canand other events which can

be simulated:be simulated: forestry and agroforestryforestry and agroforestryMM

POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:

watershed landscape

management model

LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

Trees Ecotone Open

* Is this a clearcut?

* What will the future

forest species composition be?

* How will Douglas-fir

compete with western

hemlock?

* Will shade tolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?

LLEMS: complex

cutblock simulator

FORCEE:

Individual tree,

complex stand model

FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Visualization

software – stand and

landscape

FORCEE: complex stand simulator output

Variable RetentionVariable Retention

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Landscape level ecosystem management model:

LLEMSLLEMS

Local landscape Local landscape

ecosystem ecosystem

management model management model

for complex cut block for complex cut block

design design –– under under

development: development:

NSERCNSERC-- INTERFORINTERFOR

LLEMSLLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management SimulatorLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

TreesTrees EcotoneEcotone OpenOpen

* * Is this a Is this a clearcutclearcut??

* What will the future * What will the future

forest species composition be?forest species composition be?

* * How will DouglasHow will Douglas--fir fir

compete with western compete with western

hemlock?hemlock?

* Will shade intolerant * Will shade intolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?hardwoods be able to grow?

* * Wind, diseases?Wind, diseases?

QuestionsQuestions

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Landscape management scenario analysis tool for education,

extension and management gaming

POSSIBLE FOREST POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:FUTURES:

Multiple value, watershed Multiple value, watershed

management scenario management scenario

analysis modelanalysis model

Based on FORECAST and Based on FORECAST and

FORWADYFORWADY

Stand-level Visualization: SVS

Aggregated retention

Dispersed retention

SVS output

Landscape Visualization

Forest P ractices Code Scenario

Zoning Scenario

Year 25

Year 25

World Construction Set output

Arrow Lakes TSA IFPA: Lemon Creek

Envision output

CALP Forester CALP Forester –– Interactive, 3Interactive, 3--D visualization toolD visualization tool

Conclusions

•We need to put biology and ecology into planning

and decision support tools in forestry

• These tools should be ecosystem-level

• They should be driven by the key determinants of

production ecology

• Landscape-level decision support tools should be

driven by stand level ecosystem management tools

Use of Such Tools in Analysis of Use of Such Tools in Analysis of

Sustainability: The Concept of Sustainability: The Concept of

Ecological RotationEcological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

DisturbanceDisturbance

Short ecological rotationShort ecological rotation

Intermediate ecological rotation

Long ecological rotation

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

1. Rotation too short1. Rotation too short

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

2. Ecosystem recovery too slow2. Ecosystem recovery too slow

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

3. Degree of disturbance too great 3. Degree of disturbance too great

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable