Kickoff meeting

Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06

Kickoff meetingTwinning on development of

modelling capacity to support water quality monitoring in

Latvia

Ecosystem model perspectives

Photo Lake Övre hammardammen, Fredrik Ejhed


Problems using only 22 agricultural regions in Sweden

Problems in a region with large climate gradient. Runoff is overestimated in parts of the region which dilutes thus gives too low concentrations. Total nitrogen concentration vs time in Stensån Sweden. SOILNDB and HBV.

The model is used for production of result dependent on the management practices that can be changed by measures. The large shortterm variations is not in focus of the model but it has been validated at field scale.


Swedish monitoring programme adjustments due to WFD Trend stations monitoring programme consists of stations that

– class high or good status from biological parameters– are pristine without any pressures– are sampled yearly both water chemistry and biology

Rotation stations monitoring programme consists of stations that– provide additional areal coverage of information on water

chemistry and biology– are sampled in a 6-year rotation

The largest change is increase in monitoring of biology The large river outlet to the sea monitoring programme

continues


6 Parameter regions for calibration of HBV hydrology

HBV230 stations for calibration140 stations for validationtimesplit validation also

Hydrological modelling HBV


Ecosystem models Combining the complete ecosystem response to

pollution Part of the ecosystem is the water quality models Combination of atmospheric processes and water

processes


Air - water modelling linkage Wetland Shallow lakes WFD demand good ecological status ICP Critical load = WFD border good-moderate

ecological status Model interface air –water


ICP critical load methods ICP modelling and mapping

http://www.oekodata.com/icpmapping/index.html

– No dynamics needed for ICP exceedence and critical load values steady state. SMB Simple Mass Balance

– In water quality model dynamic is essential for e.g. lake processes.

– Dynamics can be used to establish steady state.– In case of exceedence dynamic modelling coupled to

water quality models is needed to investigate the recovery process.


Nitrogen lake retention from catchment to sea

Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air and critical load ?

Small lakes (<1 km2) total circulation Large lakes have a passive and an active water volume which

variate with flow in and out Retention within the active part (HBV-N)

– Inorg. N : denitrification, biota assimilation, algae production and mineralisation.

Lake retention = lakeret * cilake * lakearea * tmean5lakeret = par. calibrated, cilake = concentration of inorg. N in active lake part, tmean5=mean temperature latest 5 days

– Denitrification most important.– Takes place in the sediments, thus area and not volume is a

parameter.


Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air critical load ? ...continued

Lakes with long residence time are more effective in retention of N Temperature and nutrient status control org.N production

– Lakeproduction = lakeorg * cilake2 * vlake * tmean10lakeorg=calibrated parametercilake2=concentration of inorganic N in lakevlake=lake volume tmean10=temperatur mean latest 10 daysif tmean10>tmean20 then lakeproduction is positiveif tmean10<tmean20 then lakeproduction is negative

When the temperature is lower the latest 10 days than latest 20 days, sedimentation and mineralisation exceed the production.


Air and water quality link Runoff from paved surfaces and PM10 particles in air –a local urban problem

EU ARTEMIS project links road emissions model to traffic situations

SIMAIR swedish geographic distribution of traffic emissions

Risc assessment of effects on water bodies

f uel emission

Break wear

Tire wearasphalt wear

Deviation

Speed

Road salt

Road sandClimateRoad climate

f uel emission

Break wear


fuel emission

Break wear


Deviation

Speed

Road salt


Deviation

Speed

Road salt



Gross load

N from forest landuse kg/ha,y


Whithin WFDEcosystem expected ecological status Good ecological quality Target values ex. Swedish environmental quality

targets. WFD good ecological status ín Sweden

– Bottomfauna index– Fish– etc

Critical load index not entirely the same as WFD


Toxic pressure

Sediment

WaterSoil

Vegetation

AirAerosols

Aquatic particles

Biota

Transport Processes and the use of Models

Occurrence and distribution of chemicals in different media


Multimedia fugacity models and screening

Useful tool for predicting environmental fate of chemicals Point out likely recipient media and transport pathways Can be used generally or for specific region Help prioritising chemicals of environmental interest, ”ranking

tool” Quick, cheap, easy

Toxic Pressures - Models

From IVL presentation in REBECCA


Insjöar (Abborre)

ng/g

lipi

dvik

t

0

5

10

15

20

BysjönHjärtsjönStensjön

Kust (Abborre/Tånglake)

ng/g

lipi

dvik

t

0

5

10

15

VäderöarnaKvädöfjärdenHolmöarna

Hav (sill/strömming)

BDE47 BDE99 BDE100 BDE153 BDE154

ng/g

lipi

dvik

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

FladenUtlänganHarufjärden

Ref Screening of organic contaminants in Sweden Sternbeck et al 2004

Lake

Coastal

Sea

Screening

PBDEs in fish (ng/g lipid)

Occurrence


Pollution transport and fate- fugacity models Calculates transport and fate of the substance from

equilibrium qriteria value. The model evaluates the relative partitioning

differences to different media (sediment, biota, water, air)

not applied on national level


Example of output

Air

Sediment

SoilWater

Urban film

0.028 kg/year

0.012 kg/year

0.13 kg/year

8.44x10-4

kg/year

5.48x10-3

kg/year6.03x10-3

kg/year

3.18 kg/year

0.59 kg/year

0.14 kg/year

0 kg/year

0 kg/year

0.030 kg/year

1.61 x10-2 kg/year

0.18 kg/year

2.24x10-3

kg/year

1.7x10-3 kg/year

0.026 kg/year

3.14 kg/year

1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3

f = 8.87x10-12 Pa

0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa

1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa

1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3

f=3.58x10-12 Pa

0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg

Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days

0.10 kg/year

0.42 kg/year

reaction

advection

emission

intermedia transport

Tostratosphere

8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99

Air

Sediment

SoilWater

Urban film

0.028 kg/year

0.012 kg/year

0.13 kg/year

8.44x10-4

kg/year

5.48x10-3

kg/year6.03x10-3

kg/year

3.18 kg/year

0.59 kg/year

0.14 kg/year

0 kg/year

0 kg/year

0.030 kg/year

1.61 x10-2 kg/year

0.18 kg/year

2.24x10-3

kg/year

1.7x10-3 kg/year

0.026 kg/year

3.14 kg/year

1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3

f = 8.87x10-12 Pa

0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa

1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa

1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3

f=3.58x10-12 Pa

0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg

Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days

0.10 kg/year

0.42 kg/year

reaction

advection

emission

intermedia transport

Tostratosphere

8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99


Toxic Pressures - QSAR/QSPR models• Quantitative structure activity/property relationships

– modelling the relation between chemical structure and activity/properties

• Prediction of unmeasured properties for substances…• …based on molecular descriptors• Reduce testing needs


Toxic Pressures -QSAR end-points

• Aquatic toxicity– acute tox (EC50/LC50)– chronic tox (EC50)– PNEC– algae– daphnia– fish

• Physical properties– biotic and abiotic

degradation– bioconcentration

BCF– soil/sediment

sorption KOC

– KOW, MP, VP, BP, HLC, SW

Kickoff meeting

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