Key Technology Trajectories
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description
Key Technology Trajectories. Prague, October 22 nd , 2004. Roberto Saracco [email protected]. Key Technology Trajectories. Approach Trajectories Disruptions. Roberto Saracco [email protected]. The Web Site. The FOUR LAYERS. Looking into Technologies. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Key Technology Trajectories
Looking into Technologies
How would a Tech. evolve?
How is it related to the whole?
Looking into Technologies
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reale)(Pcasuale realeC
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Year 2004 3,090 2,899 0,164 0,051
Year 2010 3,000 2,774 0,266 0,055
Year 2020 2,781 2,689 0,270 0,058
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
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Looking into Technologies
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
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reale ordinato realeC ordinatoC
Year 2004 3,090 9,838 0,164 0,439
Year 2010 3,000 9,035 0,266 0,494
Year 2020 2,781 8,646 0,270 0,504
Looking into Technologies
How would a Tech. evolve?
How is it related to the whole?
What are the crucial impacts?(passive/active)
Technology Trajectories
3D Imaging Artificial Life Broadband Communications Content Creation Data Capture Encryption Gaming Platforms Gaming Storage Human Interfacing Image Recognition Information Coding Information Displaying Information Retrieval Interactivity
Language Understanding Embedded System Multimode Person Identification Pin Pointing Printing Atoms Processing Profiling Seamless Ubiquitous Access Security Sensing Shadowing Storage Virtual Presence Terminals/Wearable
Technology Trajectories
Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in
HEIDELBERG, Germany – November 9th , 2004
You are invited to join!
Technologies Trajectories Artificial Life
Robotics
Virtual Reality
Self creation: assembling / replicating
Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Towards increased
flexibility
Support variety ofapplication fields
Today: Europe, USA, Japan Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl.field
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous
Towards real independence
Support remote exploration, AmI
Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic
Towards closer, spontaneousinteractions, seamlessintegration, smarterrobots
Support augmented life,healthcare, prosthetics
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social
Towards seamless interaction Entertainment, Education,…
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social MicroRobots
Towards better movement capabilities nanoRobots for health care
Support ambient exploration, sensing Today: USA (nanoRobots), Europe Tomorrow: ?
Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social MicroRobots Swarm (Physical, Sw)
Towards collective autonomous intelligence Support ambient sensing, Meta-Info harvest Today: USA Tomorrow: USA
Disruptions: Looking for “x”
Disruption
Time
Looking for “x” in processing
?
Time
Mainframes
Mini
PC
PDA
Tablet PC
Smart Obj.GRID
Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
UnderstandingSpecificity
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
Wet WareBio PrintingSensors – U.Acc.Hi.Sp. ProcessingMolecular comp.
Disruptions
Transformation of Products into Services
The Disappearance of the Computer
Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
Changing Traffic Patterns
Infinite Bandwidth
Disposable Products
Autonomous Systems
From Content to Packaging
The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
From Products to Services
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Embedding of communications capabilities Rising of profiling Cheaper production processes
Embedded Systems Seamless Ubiquitotus Access Communications
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Products becoming commodities Loss of differentiation capabilities Increased copycat possibilities
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Transformation into service companies Shortening of products’ life cycle Strong increase in call centers Automated customised assistance Increased globalisation of the market Restructuring of the value chain
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Health care Entertainment Transportation Consumer appliances Education …
From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
Disruption is already occurring Connectivity bundled as a service feature Appliance bundled in connectivity
