Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research...

15
Please refer to page 15 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security. INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry: Financial Technology John Kraft, CFA 503.603.3058 [email protected] Core Processors’ High Recurring Revenue Offer Downside Protection Recurring revenue provides comfort during a slowdown. Financial technology data processors, often called „core processors‟ such as Fiserv, FIS and Jack Henry all have significant recurring revenue (as shown in Chart 1) given their concentration of outsourced, subscription contracts. These contracts are predominantly for data processing within domestic banks, credit unions, and community institutions. While domestic FIs have been struggling, this data processing is mission critical, and the FIs must pay their core processor to stay in business. Further, most contracts are based on assets size, number of accounts or members (with credit unions); none of which are affected by traditional M&A or outright failures. (Those assets/accounts/members move to the new bank, which results in higher processing costs, in most cases, to the acquiring institution.) While all have some exposure to discretionary spending, we view the earnings risk as low. Suite selling becoming the standard. As the core processing industry has evolved, several changes have been notable. First, regional vendors have been acquired/consolidated into a small number of national players (much because of scale efficiencies, as well as the reality that increasingly electronic transactions no longer require a processor be next door to an FI in order to receive paper check deliveries). The second notable change is that FIs increasingly prefer working with fewer vendors. Older “best of breed” style purchasing has been swapped for “best of suite”. As the larger core processors have consolidated the industry, they have also built out complimentary and add-on applications, such as internet banking, teller automation, and call center VRUs. These products tend to be better integrated into core platforms. It‟s a natural win-win. FIs starting to spend again. Bank failures have fallen from 157 in 2010 to 92 in 2011 and 41 so far in 2012. Consequently, uncertainly is reduced and most FIs are keenly aware whether they will survive or not. Many FIs are ready to resume technology projects shelved a couple years ago. Further, technology updates for regulatory, scale, fraud, etc. are often overdue. In the end, we are seeing financial technology vendor revenues improving. Chart 1: Top Core Processors Rating Market cap (billions) P/E FY P/E FY+1 EV/EBITDA FY EV/EBITDA FY+1 Organic Revenue Growth Recurring Revenue FIS* BUY 9.30 $ 12.6 11.3 7.8 7.3 4-8% ~80% FISV* NEUTRAL 9.90 $ 14.1 12.7 8.8 8.3 3-6% ~85% JKHY* BUY 3.30 $ 19.2 17.4 8.8 8.1 6-10% ~79% Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson estimates Recommended core processors FIS is a top global core vendor with stable growth, a diverse business model, an extensive client base, and recurring revenue in the mid 80% range. With the lowest valuation of the group, as shown above, and organic growth in the mid to upper single digits, we expect the multiple to increase throughout 2013. JKHY is arguably the premier core processor. The company‟s backlog grew impressively each of the last two quarters, which gives us confidence JKHY is positioned to continue to generate organic growth rates at or above the upper single digits, which is the highest of its peers.

Transcript of Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research...

Page 1: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

Please refer to page 15 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. * D. A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this security.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Institutional Equity Research

September 2012

Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12

Industry:

Financial Technology

John Kraft, CFA 503.603.3058 [email protected]

Core Processors’ High Recurring Revenue Offer Downside Protection

Recurring revenue provides comfort during a slowdown. Financial technology

data processors, often called „core processors‟ such as Fiserv, FIS and Jack Henry all have significant recurring revenue (as shown in Chart 1) given their concentration of outsourced, subscription contracts. These contracts are predominantly for data processing within domestic banks, credit unions, and community institutions. While domestic FIs have been struggling, this data processing is mission critical, and the FIs must pay their core processor to stay in business. Further, most contracts are based on assets size, number of accounts or members (with credit unions); none of which are affected by traditional M&A or outright failures. (Those assets/accounts/members move to the new bank, which results in higher processing costs, in most cases, to the acquiring institution.) While all have some exposure to discretionary spending, we view the earnings risk as low. Suite selling becoming the standard. As the core processing industry has evolved,

several changes have been notable. First, regional vendors have been acquired/consolidated into a small number of national players (much because of scale efficiencies, as well as the reality that increasingly electronic transactions no longer require a processor be next door to an FI in order to receive paper check deliveries). The second notable change is that FIs increasingly prefer working with fewer vendors. Older “best of breed” style purchasing has been swapped for “best of suite”. As the larger core processors have consolidated the industry, they have also built out complimentary and add-on applications, such as internet banking, teller automation, and call center VRUs. These products tend to be better integrated into core platforms. It‟s a natural win-win. FIs starting to spend again. Bank failures have fallen from 157 in 2010 to 92 in 2011

and 41 so far in 2012. Consequently, uncertainly is reduced and most FIs are keenly aware whether they will survive or not. Many FIs are ready to resume technology projects shelved a couple years ago. Further, technology updates for regulatory, scale, fraud, etc. are often overdue. In the end, we are seeing financial technology vendor revenues improving. Chart 1: Top Core Processors

Rating

Market cap

(billions)

P/E

FY

P/E

FY+1

EV/EBITDA

FY

EV/EBITDA

FY+1

Organic

Revenue

Growth

Recurring

Revenue

FIS* BUY 9.30$ 12.6 11.3 7.8 7.3 4-8% ~80%

FISV* NEUTRAL 9.90$ 14.1 12.7 8.8 8.3 3-6% ~85%

JKHY* BUY 3.30$ 19.2 17.4 8.8 8.1 6-10% ~79%

Source: Company reports and D.A. Davidson estimates

Recommended core processors

FIS is a top global core vendor with stable growth, a diverse business model, an

extensive client base, and recurring revenue in the mid 80% range. With the lowest valuation of the group, as shown above, and organic growth in the mid to upper single digits, we expect the multiple to increase throughout 2013.

JKHY is arguably the premier core processor. The company‟s backlog grew

impressively each of the last two quarters, which gives us confidence JKHY is positioned to continue to generate organic growth rates at or above the upper single digits, which is the highest of its peers.

Page 2: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

2

ACIW was selected by Agricultural Bank of China, CVS (CVS-$48.42), and Associated

Banc-Corp (ASBC-$13.16).

EPAY was selected by Lloyds Bank (LYG-$2.49) and ITV to provide SWIFT access,

allowing ITV to improve operational efficiency.

CATM expanded Allpoint Network to Canada, was selected by Shell and partnered with 7-

Eleven Canada as an exclusive ATM provider.

CSTR started a workaround after Disney (DIS-$52.28) began its 28-day window, renewed

its 28-day window contract with Universal Studios, acquired NCR‟s entertainment segment for $100 million, and renewed its Wal-Mart (WMT - $73.80) agreement.

CNQR was selected by GSA as the sole ETS2 provider.

EEFT partnered with Grupo Elektra, expanding by 1,800 locations in Mexico, and became

the first third party processor for MasterCard (MA-$451.48) in Pakistan.

FIS expanded its wealth management platform relationships with multiple firms and

expanded its relationship with Texas First Bank through core processing.

FISV was selected by TD Bank (TD - $83.34), Malaysia‟s AmBank Group, SAC Federal

Credit Union, Headland National Bank, and First National Bank.

GDOT was selected by Sallie Mae (SLM - $15.72) as a refund distribution channel, signed

a new exclusive distribution agreement with Kmart (SHLD - $55.49), Dollar Tree (DLTR - $48.28), RushCard, expanded its Wal-Mart relationship, and renewed its PayPal (EBAY - $48.37) MoneyPak agreement.

JKHY added Lowell Bank, Peach State Bank & Trust, Brookline Bank, UniBank, First

Community Bank, American Airlines Federal Credit Union, Community Choice Credit Union, Summit Credit Union, and The Bank of Georgia to its list of clients.

NTSP announced a distribution agreement with DolEx, and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.

(FDO - $9.83). The addition adds more than 7,200 locations.

ORCC was selected by Randolph-Brooks Federal Credit Union and First Command Bank,

and Oregon Community Credit Union expanded its relationship.

WU signed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a distribution agreement with Dollar

General (DG - $51.54), completed its acquisition of the French Operations of Travelex Global Business Payments, and partnered with Grupo Elektra, expanding by 1,800 locations in Mexico, with Roshan in Afghanistan, with Mercer Outsourcing in 80 counties, and with Millicom in Mexico. It also signed Citizens Bank.

ACIW released a new version of BASE24-eps.

CNQR Japan launched an employee spending management solution specifically designed

for Japanese corporations.

CSTR expanded its kiosks into Canada and partnered with Seattle‟s Best Coffee to

introduce coffee kiosks as the next automated retail venture.

DLX launched SwitchAgent, acquired an internet marketing company, OrangeSoda, Inc.,

for $27 million.

EPAY acquired Albany Software.

FIS launched prepaid travel EMV cards.

NTSP released the PayPal prepaid card and the BET Control prepaid card. NTSP has an

exclusive contract with PayPal to provide GPR cards.

WU launched Business Payments Wallet, mobile money transfer service in Uganda &

Italy, and WU Pay.

ACIW acquired payment solution company Distra, increased share repurchase program to

$113 million, announced agreement to repurchase IBM‟s outstanding warrants, partnered with Bell ID and Spectrum Partner, and completed its acquisition of S1 Corporation.

CONTRACTS (YTD)

PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS (YTD)

FINANCIAL NEWS (YTD)

Page 3: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

3

CATM acquired ATM Network, a provider of ATM services to more than 6,000 clients.

CNQR’s TripIt mobile app reached 2.5 million users.

EEFT – Expanded independent ATM network to Spain and Italy.

EPAY announced a new stock repurchase plan of $20 million and partnered with Intuit

(INTU* - $58.88) to deliver innovative financial services products.

FIS announced a new agreement to deploy and manage 5,500 ATMs in India, completed

the sale of its healthcare solutions business, and completed a private offering of $700 million of senior notes.

FISV filed a patent lawsuit against FIS regarding its payment manager products.

GDOT completed its acquisition of Loopt and eCommLink.

LPS announced the acquisition of LendingSpace and LERET announced the acquisition

of LPS Property Tax Solutions.

NTSP announced a $75 million repurchase program, and Oak Investment Partners

distributed an aggregate of 11,219,355 shares.

ACIW – Several sells.

CATM – Several open market sells.

CSTR – No open market buys or sells.

CNQR – Several open market sells.

DLX – A few open market sells.

EPAY –Several open market sells.

FIS – Several large open market sells.

GDOT – Very quiet, no open market buys or sells.

ORCC – No sells, all stock retained.

WU – October 30th, earnings will be released after the close.

ACI Worldwide, Inc.

ACIW in front of several improving years. Recovering and struggling financial

institutions alike are being forced to catch up on overdue technology projects. Regulatory compliance, payments-related technologies, and cost saving updates are now a top focus. ACIW has invested heavily in integrating its suite of products and, with the S1 product suite, the company is extremely well positioned to capitalize on increased spending. Ultimately, we believe ACIW is in front of several years of significant growth, not in spite of a global financial pressure, but arguably, because of it.

ACIW has become a top pick—BUY rated. Our price target of $50 represents an

EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x and a P/E multiple of 17.0x our pro forma 2013 estimates.

Coinstar Inc.

Volatile top pick. We like CSTR for three reasons: 1) hard copy DVD rentals are

continuing to generate revenue growth; 2) the Blockbuster Express acquisition essentially eliminated legitimate kiosk competition; and 3) management is progressing with new revenue generators such as games and Blu-ray, coffee machines, and online streaming.

Post Q2 earnings selloff puzzling; reiterate BUY. We believe the recent weakness has

created a large margin of safety. Coinstar‟s competitive position and value proposition remains clear: the DVD format remains the lowest price rental option and the competition is quickly eroding. With a promising new digital partnership to offset potential and eventual erosion from streaming, we remain enthusiastic.

Our $90 price target represents a modest EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x and a P/E multiple of 16x our 2013 estimates.

NOTABLE INSIDER ACTIVITY (last three months)

UPCOMING EVENTS

BUY RATED STOCKS

Page 4: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

4

Deluxe Corporation

Management continues to impress. We have nothing but praise for DLX management,

given their consistent execution in a difficult environment. Further, we continue to expect past and potential business service-related acquisitions to provide enough growth to offset the paper check declines. A clear indication of top line stabilization should boost the company‟s valuation multiples.

Maintaining BUY. DLX has a safe $1.00 dividend (3.6%+ yield), manageable debt,

stable cash flows and early signs of sustainable organic consolidated revenue growth. This stock should be trading higher. Our $32 price target represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x and a P/E multiple of 9x our 2013 estimates, and nearly 20% appreciation.

Euronet Worldwide, Inc.

Management returning to core opportunities. We like EEFT because management is

mitigating interchange headwinds, pursuing a high level outsourcing, and focusing on additional growth of its product suite and cross sale potential.

Reiterating BUY. The outsourcing trend continues to be an important piece of our

optimistic longer-term thesis on EEFT. While ePay does face some near-term challenges, we are impressed by recent MT share gains. Our $25 target represents a fairly modest EV/EBITDA multiple of 7x and a P/E multiple of 13x our 2013 estimates. We encourage investors to revisit this name.

FIS

Defensive top pick. While 2012 is likely to remain challenging, we are excited about FIS

as the company‟s revenues are largely recurring and mission critical. With limited exposure to more troubled European countries, we are incrementally less worried about the international operations. Additionally, FIS is gaining market share and growing internationally as more financial institutions are opting for outsourcing.

Reiterate BUY. Discretionary spending is slowly improving as the industry recovers and

increasingly looks to outsource key technologies. Not deservingly, FIS‟ shares carry the lowest valuation in the group. With European concerns misguided and an organic growth in the middle of the direct peer group, we expect multiple appreciation over the coming quarters and we reiterate our BUY rating. Our target of $40 represents EV/EBITDA and

P/E multiples of 8.5x and 14x, respectively.

Jack Henry & Associates

Solid revenue stream and balance sheet. JKHY is a great conservative pick due to its

low debt, low price volatility, low revenue volatility, and management‟s conservative style.

BUY rated. As a high quality vendor with a broadening product suite in a stabilizing

industry, we are convinced JKHY is well positioned to continue generating organic growth rates above direct peers. Our price target of $43 represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.4x and P/E multiple of 20x our fiscal 2014 estimates (or a P/E of 18.6x using a more comparable pro forma EPS). While a premium to direct peers, we believe the valuation is justified by the company‟s higher organic growth trajectory and its lower risk, domestic-only customer base.

NetSpend Holdings, Inc.

2012 top pick. We remain excited about NTSP because of its low valuation compared to

peers, new partnerships, favorable industry trends, aggressive buyback program, and high organic growth.

Impressive list of recent new partners. Since announcing its relationship with BET

Networks last year (which reaches over 90 million households), NTSP has been actively expanding its distribution network, signing PayPal (50 million accounts domestically), the Blackhawk Network (3,000 locations), 7-Eleven (6,000 locations), and a host of new corporate employers and banks. PayPal was launched in Q2, although it likely impacted the quarter minimally. We are particularly eager to hear about the launch, as well as an update on the not-yet-launched BET initiative.

Page 5: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

5

Difference between NTSP and GDOT becoming clearer. Following Green Dot‟s

guidance-lowering disaster, investors were clearly nervous. To date, NTSP has primarily trafficked heavily in payroll and the direct and alternative financial services channels; channels that tend to support exclusivity. GDOT has largely been retail focused. As the retail channel discovers the potential of prepaid, we expect more to grow “shelf space” with competitive offerings. At the end of the day, what should be increasingly clear is that GDOT‟s near-term competitive pains are largely NetSpend‟s gains.

Valuation compelling. BUY rated. NetSpend is one of the faster growing companies in

our universe; growing revenues organically roughly 10% and the bottom line 20%+. Our $12 price target represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x and a P/E multiple of 18.5x.

Online Resources Corporation

Most likely to be acquired top pick. We are optimistic about ORCC because the

turnaround is progressing, management has consistently underestimated guidance, the Durbin Amendment is a tailwind, and profit margins are healthier.

Story is tracking to expectations, no change to our thesis; BUY. ORCC is clearly

mastering the art of under promising and over delivering. The company is making steady progress with its longer-term strategic “turnaround” plan. With a valuable product suite, biller network, patents, and client base, the company can certainly remain independent. We, however, continue to believe the current turnaround will eventually culminate in a sale. Our $6 price target represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x and a P/E multiple of 17.6x our 2013 estimates.

Bottomline Technologies

Optimism priced into shares. We are optimistic that Legal eXchange, Paymode-X, and

the new global bank deals will drive growth in fiscal 2012 and longer term. However, at current premium valuation levels, we believe our optimism is largely priced into the shares.

NEUTRAL. EPAY is working hard and facing an improving market. While it may take

some time for investors to reap the rewards, current share prices appear to be discounting them. Our price target of $22 represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x and a P/E multiple of 21.9x our 2013 estimates and 10.8x and 17.4x our 2014 estimates, respectively.

Cardtronics Inc.

Outsourcing trend likely to continue. As the largest non-bank ATM operator, CATM

benefits from material scale efficiencies. Increasingly, we expect financial institutions and retailers lacking the scale or expertise to operate ATMs in-house, to find CATM‟s outsourcing proposition compelling.

NEUTRAL. CATM‟s deep management team, capital investments, and material scale

continue to widen the competitive barrier to entry. Overall, we expect FIs to increasingly find CATM‟s outsourcing proposition attractive and we are favorably disposed to CATM. However, we believe much of this optimism is already priced into the shares and are less optimistic regarding near-term appreciation. Our target of $32 represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.4x and a P/E multiple of 16.6x our 2013 estimates.

Concur Technologies, Inc.

Long-term growth story. We remain optimistic regarding CNQR‟s prospects, because,

in addition to the tailwind of a stabilizing employment environment, the company is aggressively growing its sales force, its product suite, and expanding into new markets such as India and Japan. In addition, the company was named sole vendor for the Government, which allows CNQR to sell to federal agencies.

NEUTRAL. Overall, the CNQR vision remains exciting and we continue to be impressed

by management and their longer-term focus; one of the longest we have seen. While the stock is compelling for longer term investors, we have a hard time justifying entry at these levels. Our price target of $75 represents a 65x P/E multiple and a 28.8x EV/EBITDA multiple based on our 2013 estimates. While the company‟s long runway of high growth provides sufficient opportunity to justify these rich multiples, they are in the range of premium multiples paid for recent SaaS comparable take-outs.

NEUTRAL RATED STOCKS

Page 6: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

6

Ellie Mae, Inc.

Tailwinds in 2012 likely to become headwinds in 2013. Current industry forecasts

suggest mortgage volumes in 2012 will be up 11% from 2011, which is a 25% increase from March 2012 (when guidance was initially provided). Specifically in Q2, ELLI grew 12.7% while industry volumes were only up 7.2%, suggesting the company continues to gain share. While we believe share gains will continue, we expect comparisons to get much tougher in 2013 when mortgage volumes are predicted to fall 21% (according to Mortgage Bankers Association).

Maintaining NEUTRAL. ELLI delivered a fabulous Q2 and, with the company firing on all

cylinders, there is nothing to complain about. Investors appear to expect continued outperformance, which adds some risk to the stock. Further, we worry somewhat about 2013, given the aforementioned and likely rate-based headwinds, and the optics of an imminent move towards fully taxed earnings. Our $25 price target represents a 35x P/E multiple and a 16x EV/EBITDA multiple based on our 2013 estimates.

Fiserv, Inc.

FISV positioned well. We are optimistic about FISV as financial institutions are

recovering, its pipeline is ahead by all metrics, and the company has invested heavily in its product suite.

Industry improving very slowly. FISV is plugging along despite a challenging

environment, and we are not particularly worried about the Q2 slowing. Clearly the number of failing banks has slowed and overall FI health is (very slowly) improving. FISV has invested heavily in integrating an existing suite of products and is well positioned to take advantage of this steadily recovering spending cycle. With the TD win and a still-solid pipeline, we expect growth to pick up.

Maintaining NEUTRAL. Given the shares‟ outperformance and valuation, we feel much

of the aforementioned optimism is priced into the shares. Our price target of $75 represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x and a P/E multiple of 13x our 2013 estimates.

Green Dot Corporation

Positioned for growth. GDOT is still one of the fastest growing companies we cover and

has the potential to reach its previous organic revenue growth. We see its position as a prepaid industry leader, and the acquisition of Bonneville Bank, Loopt, and eCommLink as strengths that could turn on in 2013.

Maintaining NEUTRAL. After the Q2 earnings call, we slashed our estimates and while

we suspect management‟s guidance was overly conservative, we expect the stock to be in the penalty box for some time. Given GDOT‟s industry leading retail dependence, GDOT has the most to lose from the loss of retail exclusivity. Our target of $12 represents a 10x forward P/E and less than 4x EV/EBITDA; the stock appears cheap. While we expect GDOT to remain an industry force, as an early leader with roughly $5 per share in cash, we worry about headline risk related to ongoing negative news and consensus estimates that likely need to come down further. We do not expect the stock to move anytime soon.

Lender Processing Services, Inc.

Recent operating results have been ahead. LPS has significant earnings power and

we expect the company to be an important player in the mortgage industry. Unfortunately, there is substantial uncertainty regarding the timing of the company‟s processing opportunity. Fundamentally, the 2012 outlook remains difficult, with a weak origination market, legal and regulatory challenges, and no incremental clarity on the massive pipeline of delinquencies.

NEUTRAL rated. LPS has significant earnings power and we expect the company to be

an important player in the mortgage industry. While there is substantial uncertainty regarding the company‟s heavy regulatory and legal pressures, Q2 results show leverage in the model given management‟s progress with the company‟s cost structure. Our target of $28 represents an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.3x and a P/E multiple of 9.9x our 2013 estimates.

Page 7: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

7

The Western Union Company

2012 expected to look a lot like 2011. 2012 guidance shows little improvement from

2011 and modestly improving conditions in 2013. Remittance trends in many corridors have been disappointing. We will be looking for growth in global payments and electronic channels in 2012.

Maintaining NEUTRAL. As we struggle to be particularly inspired one way or another on WU, our NEUTRAL rating feels appropriate at this time. Our $18 price target represents a

2013 EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x and P/E of 10x. While still somewhat discounted, we believe this valuation adequately accounts for a cloudy industry outlook and the company‟s ongoing legal and regulatory risks.

John Kraft, CFA Senior Research Analyst

503.603.3058

Page 8: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

8

Appendix Chart 2: NASDAQ Bank Index Up TTM

Source: Capital IQ

Chart 3: Solid Outperformance In FinTech

Source: SNL

Page 9: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

9

Chart 4: 30-Year Mortgage & 10-Year Treasury – Rates Expected To Stay Low Chart 5: Delinquency & Foreclosure Rates: ~2x Pre-Crisis Levels

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

30 Year Fixed Mortgage 10 Year Treasury Spread

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate

Source: MBA Mortgage Finance Report Source: LPS Mortgage Monitor

Chart 6: Monthly Foreclosure Filings – New Filings Trending Down Chart 7: Mortgage Originations – Will We Ever Get Back To Peak Levels?

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Filings

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

Mortgage Originations: 1-4 Family: Total (Bil.$)

Source: RealtyTrac Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Page 10: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

10

Chart 8: Intuit Small Business Employment Index – Painfully Slow Improvement Chart 9: Mobile Clearly the Fasted Growing Channel

80828486889092949698

100102

Intuit Employment Index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Internet Banking Users Bill Pay Users Mobile Users

Source: Intuit Small Business Employment Index Source: D.A. Davidson & Co estimates

Chart 10: Number of U.S. Financial Institutions – Consolidation Trend Stable Chart 11: Bank of Mexico Remittances

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Number of FIs

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Workers Remittances, Total (Mil. $)

Source: FDIC, CUNA, and D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates Source: Central Bank of Mexico

Page 11: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

11

Chart 12: FDIC – Number Of Bank Failures and Banks On Watchlist Chart 13: World Bank Predicts Return To Near Double-Digit Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Failu

res

Watc

h L

ist

Watch List Failures

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Remittance flows to developling countries ($ billions)

Source: FDIC Source: The World Bank

Chart 14: Remittance Growth Chart 15: Total Bank Failures & Failed Assets

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Developing Countries Remittance Growth Y/Y World Remittance Growth Y/Y

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Assets Failures

Source: The World Bank Source: FDIC, D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates

Page 12: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

12

Chart 16: Historically low Treasury Yield Curve Rates Chart 17: Industry Prepaid Growth Keeping Pace with High Expectations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

9/4/2012 12/30/2011 12/31/2010

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Gross Dollar Volume - GDV Active GPR Cards

Source: U.S. Treasury Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. Estimates

Chart 18: USD Has Been Strengthening Compared to EUR

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

$EURUSD - Share Pricing

Source: Capital IQ

Page 13: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

13

Chart 19: EV/EBITDA Multiple Comparison Chart 20: Valuation Relative to LT Growth Estimates

0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

35.0x

40.0x

EV/EBITDA FY EV/EBITDA FY+1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x50.0x60.0x70.0x

GD

OT

*

OR

CC

*

DLX

*

WU

*

CST

R*

EEF

T*

LPS

*

FIS

*

FIS

V*

NTS

P*

AC

IW*

CA

TM*

JKH

Y*

EPA

Y*

ELL

I*

CN

QR

*

EV/EBITDA FY+1 P/E FY+1

LT Revenue Growth Estimate LT EPS growth estimate

Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. Estimates Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. Estimates

Chart 21: Valuation Relative to Short Term Growth Estimates Chart 22: P/E Multiple Comparison

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

0.0x10.0x20.0x30.0x40.0x50.0x60.0x70.0x

GD

OT

*

OR

CC

*

DLX

*

WU

*

CST

R*

EEF

T*

LPS

*

FIS

*

FIS

V*

NTS

P*

AC

IW*

CA

TM*

JKH

Y*

EPA

Y*

ELL

I*

CN

QR

*

EV/EBITDA FY+1 P/E FY+1

Revenue Growth FY+1 EPS Growth FY+1

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

30.0x

40.0x

50.0x

60.0x

70.0x

80.0x

90.0x

P/E FY P/E FY+1

Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. Estimates Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. Estimates

Page 14: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

14

D.A. Davidson & Co. Equity Capital Markets

Financial Technology Coverage List

Shares Market Target FY FY+1 Mkt Cap / Mkt Cap / Price / Price / EV / EV / FY FY+1Price Diluted Cap Market Cap EV EPS EPS FY FY+1 FY FY+1 FY FY+1 FCF FCF

Ticker Company Rating FY End 9/28/12

ST Price

Target (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) Revenue Revenue EPS EPS EBITDA EBITDA Yield Yield

ACIW* ACI Worldwide, Inc. Buy Dec 42.26$ 50.00$ 33.5 $ 1,414 $ 1,673 $ 1,614 $ 2.35 $ 2.94 2.1x 1.8x 18.0x 14.3x 8.5x 7.6x 5.5% 8.3%

CATM* Cardtronics Inc. Neutral Dec 29.76$ 32.00$ 44.1 $ 1,313 $ 1,412 $ 1,680 $ 1.65 $ 1.92 1.7x 1.6x 18.1x 15.5x 8.9x 7.9x 5.2% 6.4%

CNQR* Concur Technologies, Inc. Neutral Sep 73.73$ 75.00$ 54.8 $ 4,040 $ 4,110 $ 3,831 $ 0.88 $ 1.15 9.2x 7.3x 83.9x 63.9x 33.6x 28.3x 1.4% 1.8%

CSTR* Coinstar, Inc. Buy Dec 44.98$ 90.00$ 30.7 $ 1,382 $ 2,765 $ 1,445 $ 4.86 $ 5.50 0.6x 0.6x 9.3x 8.2x 2.9x 2.6x 11.9% 10.9%

DLX* Deluxe Corp. Buy Dec 30.56$ 32.00$ 50.5 $ 1,543 $ 1,616 $ 2,240 $ 3.43 $ 3.50 1.0x 1.0x 8.9x 8.7x 6.0x 6.0x 13.1% 15.1%

EEFT* Euronet Worldwide Inc. Buy Dec 18.79$ 25.00$ 51.7 $ 971 $ 1,292 $ 1,038 $ 1.58 $ 1.86 0.8x 0.7x 11.9x 10.1x 6.4x 5.5x 8.3% 10.1%

ELLI* Ellie Mae, Inc. Neutral Dec 27.23$ 25.00$ 21.6 $ 589 $ 541 $ 558 $ 0.77 $ 0.72 6.5x 5.7x 35.2x 38.0x 23.2x 17.2x 2.4% 3.9%

EPAY* Bottomline Technologies (de), Inc. Neutral Jun 24.69$ 22.00$ 34.7 $ 858 $ 764 $ 733 $ 1.00 $ 1.27 3.4x 3.1x 24.6x 19.5x 17.2x 12.4x 4.3% 5.5%

FIS* Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. Buy Dec 31.22$ 40.00$ 292.7 $ 9,138 $ 11,708 $ 13,468 $ 2.53 $ 2.80 1.6x 1.5x 12.3x 11.1x 7.7x 7.2x 8.7% 10.6%

FISV* Fiserv, Inc. Neutral Dec 74.03$ 75.00$ 135.6 $ 10,038 $ 10,170 $ 13,151 $ 5.20 $ 5.75 2.2x 2.1x 14.2x 12.9x 8.9x 8.4x 8.0% 8.6%

GDOT* Green Dot Corporation Neutral Dec 12.23$ 12.00$ 42.7 $ 522 $ 513 $ 359 $ 1.31 $ 1.25 1.0x 1.0x 9.4x 9.8x 3.4x 3.4x 12.4% 13.6%

JKHY* Jack Henry & Associates Inc. Buy Jun 37.85$ 43.00$ 87.1 $ 3,295 $ 3,743 $ 3,269 $ 1.95 $ 2.15 3.0x 2.8x 19.4x 17.6x 8.9x 8.2x 6.6% 7.1%

LPS* Lender Processing Services, Inc. Neutral Dec 27.89$ 28.00$ 84.6 $ 2,359 $ 2,369 $ 3,299 $ 2.81 $ 2.82 1.1x 1.1x 9.9x 9.9x 6.2x 6.3x 13.3% 12.1%

NTSP* Netspend Holdings, Inc. Buy Dec 9.83$ 12.00$ 86.8 $ 853 $ 1,041 $ 832 $ 0.56 $ 0.68 2.4x 2.2x 17.4x 14.4x 8.7x 7.4x 4.4% 7.5%

ORCC* Online Resources Corp. Buy Dec 2.93$ 6.00$ 32.5 $ 95 $ 195 $ 201 $ 0.23 $ 0.34 0.6x 0.6x 12.9x 8.7x 5.8x 5.0x 15.1% 20.6%

WU* The Western Union Company Neutral Dec 18.22$ 18.00$ 604.5 $ 11,014 $ 10,881 $ 13,283 $ 1.77 $ 1.91 1.9x 1.8x 10.3x 9.5x 7.9x 7.4x 7.3% 11.4%

High $ 5.20 $ 5.75 9.2x 7.3x 83.9x 63.9x 33.6x 28.3x 15.1% 20.6%

Average $ 2.06 $ 2.29 2.4x 2.2x 19.7x 17.0x 10.3x 8.8x 8.0% 9.6%

Median $ 1.71 $ 1.92 1.8x 1.7x 13.6x 12.0x 8.2x 7.4x 7.7% 9.3%

Low $ 0.23 $ 0.34 0.6x 0.6x 8.9x 8.2x 2.9x 2.6x 1.4% 1.8%

John Kraft, CFA [email protected] (503)603-3058

Source: D.A. Davidson & Co. estimates and Capital IQ

* D.A. Davidson & Co. makes a market in this stock

Page 15: Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology · INDUSTRY UPDATE Institutional Equity Research September 2012 Key Review & Analysis in Financial Technology Prices: 9/28/12 Industry:

D.A. Davidson & Co.

Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 (503) 603-3000 (800) 755-7848 www.dadavidson.com

Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2012. All rights reserved.

15

Required Disclosures

D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from the companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.

D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. John Kraft, CFA, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.‟s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.‟s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions.

I, John Kraft, CFA, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Ratings Information

D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform

D.A. Davidson & Co. Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform

Risk adjusted return potential azbycx Over 15% total return

expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months

>0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months

Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis

over next 12-18 months

Distribution of Ratings (as of 6/30/12) Buy Hold Sell

Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform

and Distribution 58% 40% 2%

Corresponding Individual Investor Group Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform

and Distribution 80% 20% 0%

Distribution of Combined Ratings 58% 40% 2%

Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos.

Institutional Coverage 3% 2% 0% Individual Investor Group Coverage 0% 0% 0%

Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 3% 2% 0%

Target prices are our Institutional Research Department‟s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company‟s fundamentals or business trends. For a copy of the most recent reports containing all required disclosure information for covered companies referenced in this report, please contact your D.A. Davidson & Co. representative or call 1-800-755-7848.

Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.‟s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.‟s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report‟s contents, and should always seek such advisor‟s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.