Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center...
-
Upload
stuart-oconnor -
Category
Documents
-
view
230 -
download
0
Transcript of Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center...
![Page 1: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation
Xiangdong Zhang
International Arctic Research CenterUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Jing Zhang, and Jeremy R. Krieger Geophysical Institute
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Arctic System Model Workshop, August 6-7, 2007
![Page 2: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why ASM?
1. Capture high resolution features that GCM could not resolve well.
![Page 3: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why ASM?
1. Capture high resolution features that GCM could not resolve well.
![Page 4: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why ASM?
1. Capture high resolution features that GCM could not resolve well.
2. Capture realistic physical processes or feedbacks that GCM could not simulate well.
![Page 5: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Why Storm?
1. Primary weather system and could have high impact in mid- and high-latitudes.
2. Enhancing atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and may leave fingerprints on climate variability and change.
![Page 6: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Zhang, J., et al. 2007: Modeling Study of an Arctic Storm Process and Associated Atmosphere-Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions by Using a Coupled Regional Model. under revision.
![Page 7: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Yang et al. 2004
![Page 8: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Why Storm?
1. Primary weather system and could have high impact in mid- and high-latitudes.
2. Enhancing atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and may leave fingerprints on climate variability and change.
3. Storm activity has intensified in Arctic and storm track has shifted poleward, highly associated with large scale climate variability and change.
![Page 9: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Trends and variability: Arctic CAI
The integrative index CAI (Cyclone Activity Index) represents a combination of information of cyclone trajectory count, duration and intensity.
Zhang, X., et al. 2004: Climatology and interannual variability of Arctic cyclone activity, 1948-2002. J. Climate, 17, 2300-2317.
![Page 10: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Relationship to mid-latitudes: Poleward shift
• Both the intensity and trajectory count show increasing trends;
• The increase was dramatically amplified around 1990.
There are more and stronger cyclones originating southern 60N entering the Arctic, particularly around 1990.
Zhang, X., et al. 2004: Climatology and interannual variability of Arctic cyclone activity, 1948-2002. J. Climate, 17, 2300-2317.
![Page 11: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Flux Exchanges
Atmosphere (MM5)
Land Ocean & Sea Ice
Arctic MM5: Regional Weather & Climate Model
One more step forward:
Zhang, J., et al. 2007: Modeling Study of an Arctic Storm Process and Associated Atmosphere-Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions by Using a Coupled Regional Model. under revision.
taking atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling process into account
![Page 12: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Flux Exchanges
Atmosphere (MM5)
Land Ocean & Sea Ice
Arctic MM5: Regional Weather & Climate Model
One more step forward:
Dynamic Downscaling
Glacier Mass BalanceZhang, J., et al. 2007: Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach. Annals of Glaciology, 46, 283-290.
taking atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling process into account
Zhang, J., et al. 2007: Climate downscaling for estimating glacier mass balance in Northwestern North America: Validation with USGS index glacier. Geophy. Res. Lett., submitted.
![Page 13: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: Model Domain
![Page 14: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: Initial Condition
![Page 15: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: 2m Air Temperature
![Page 16: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: Cloudiness
![Page 17: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: Ocean Temperature
![Page 18: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Arctic MM5 Storm Simulation: Sea Ice Thickness
![Page 19: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Flux Exchanges
Atmosphere (WRF)
Land Ocean & Sea Ice
Transition: Arctic MM5 Arctic WRF
![Page 20: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
WRF Simulation: Model Domain
![Page 21: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
WRF Simulation: Surface Pressure
![Page 22: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
WRF Simulation: 2 m Air Temperature
![Page 23: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
WRF Simulation: 2 m Mixing Ratio
![Page 24: Key Questions to Answer on Storm Simulation Xiangdong Zhang International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea25503460f94ba5b91/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
WRF Simulation: 10 m Windspeed