Key findings and draft results from scenario forecastingGas for heat –non-domestic Commercial...

Key findings and draft results from scenario forecasting

Jonty HaynesEnergy AnalystRegen

Agenda

Methodology and framework

- Modelling framework

- Forecasting

- Distribution

Draft results

- Gas for heat

- Gas for power

- Alternative vehicles

- Green gas supply

Carbon position

Analysis methodology and framework

Modelling the gas networkCategory Factor Element of Projection Projection Units

Sources of demand

Domestic heat demand

Properties Number (#)Annual heat demand Energy (kWh)

Heat delivery technologyProportion (%)Efficiency (%)

Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)

Commercial & industrial heat

Premises Number (#)Annual heat demand Energy (kWh)

Heat delivery technologyProportion (%)Efficiency (%)

Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)

Gas fired power generation

Sites Number (#)Power capacity Power (MWe)Annual energy generation Energy (kWh)Conversion efficiency Efficiency (%)Annual gas demand Energy (kWh)

Industrial processes (+/- SMR)Premises Number (#)Annual gas demand Energy (kWh)

Gas fuelled vehiclesVehicles Number (#)Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Vehicles Number (#)EV charging stations Number (#)Power capacity Power (MWe)Annual demand Energy (kWh)

Alternative sources of supply

Green gas injection

Gas injection sites Number (#)Gas injection capacity Capacity (scm/h)Annual green gas entry Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas Proportion (%)

Hydrogen blendingAnnual hydrogen energy Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas demand Proportion (%)

Unconventional natural gas (coal

bed methane, shale gas)

Sites Number (#)Capacity Capacity (scm/h)Annual uncon gas entry Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas Proportion (%)

Methodology and framework

Forecasting process

Baseline Pipeline Projections Distribution

Baseline & Pipeline - Data & Evidence

• Connection and spatial data

• Gas fired generation register

• Biomethane site register

• New developments tracker

• CRM enquiry information

• Existing SW regional models

• SW gas fired power projections

• EV uptake modelling outputs

• Anaerobic Digestion projections

• Sub-national consumption data

• Renewable Heat Incentive data

• Heat networks delivery unit

• Feed in Tariff data


Projection resources


Distribution to GSAs


Characterisation of GSAs•Each GSA is characterised

by up to ten relevantattributes for each analysis•Projections for the SW LDZ

are distributed down to 63GSAs•Granularity allows results

to be assessed to GSA, localauthority and linepack zonelevels

Green gas distribution, 2035

Draft results

Gas for heat - domestic

Number of properties

Heat demand per property

Heat delivery technology

Heat-to-fuel conversion

Heat and fuel demand

Properties





Draft Results

Heat demand – domestic





Draft Results

Heat delivery – domestic gas boilers





Draft Results

Heat delivery – domestic ASHPs





Draft Results

Heat delivery – domestic gas HHPs





Draft Results

Heat delivery – domestic oil boilers





Draft Results

Heat delivery – distribution

GSA factors used to inform distribution

•Existing baseline

•On-gas / off-gas proportions

•Urban / rural proportions

•House type breakdown – detached/semi-detached, flats, terraced

•Housing stock heat demand

•Tenure – home ownership, social rented etc.

•Affluence

Draft Results

Heat delivery – distribution, Bristol

Draft Results

Heat delivery – distribution, Cornwall

Draft Results






• Conversion efficiency of each heating technology

• Improvements over time in every scenario as technologies improve and older stock is replaced

• Consideration of distribution losses for heat networks

Draft Results

Gas for heat – non-domestic

Commercial• Similar to domestic methodology

• Different baseline, around 50% of properties heated by gas boilers

• Different drivers and assumptions for heat demand and heat technology projections

Industrial• Significantly different to domestic and commercial, majority of heat delivered for processes rather than space and water heating

• Heat demand reduction based around reducing losses / heat recovery from process heat

• Harder to decarbonise and fewer alternative technologies, especially for higher temperature processes

Draft Results

Gas for power - baseline

South West Gas Fired Generation:• 13 sites operational across the SW LDZ• 305MWe installed capacity (average 23MW)• 36% OCGT/CCGT and 64% Recip. Engines• Interpolated 536GWh annual gas usage (2018)• Estimated 217GWh annual generation (2018)

Draft Results

Gas for power - pipeline

South West Gas Fired Generation Pipeline:•35 sites in near-term pipeline•347MWe capacity (average 10MWe)•All new projects reciprocating engines

Pipeline assessed for:•Planning applications / activity•Activity in the Capacity Market T1 & T4 auctions•Categorised as coming online or not and when, across 5 scenarios

Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025

Community Renewables

305 MW

432 MW 611 MW

Two Degrees 395 MW 462 MW

Hybrid Accelerator 432 MW 520 MW

Consumer Evolution 432 MW 611 MW

Steady Progression 305 MW 462 MW

Draft Results

Gas for power - projections

Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035


305 MW

432 MW 611 MW 591 MW 556 MW

Two Degrees 395 MW 462 MW 437 MW 395 MW

Hybrid Accelerator 432 MW 520 MW 477 MW 429 MW

Consumer Evolution 432 MW 611 MW 637 MW 659 MW

Steady Progression 305 MW 462 MW 380 MW 277 MW

Draft Results

Gas for power – capacity factors



2.5%

2.4% 3% 1.2% 0.7%

Two Degrees 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Hybrid Accelerator 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4%

Consumer Evolution 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 1.6%

Steady Progression 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 1.3%



12%

12% 12% 9% 7%

Two Degrees 14% 20% 20% 22%

Hybrid Accelerator 13% 16% 15% 15%

Consumer Evolution 13% 13% 10% 9%

Steady Progression 14% 19% 20% 20%

OCGT/CCGT

Reciprocating Engines

Draft Results

Demand for gas for power



536 GWh

1,009 GWh 1,374 GWh 959 GWh 810 GWh

Two Degrees 938 GWh 1,375 GWh 1,228 GWh 1,123 GWh

Hybrid Accelerator 1,072 GWh 1,313 GWh 1,183 GWh 1,118 GWh

Consumer Evolution 1,026 GWh 1,475 GWh 1,144 GWh 1,009 GWh

Steady Progression 638 GWh 1,400 GWh 1,139 GWh 933 GWh

Draft Results

Gas for power - distribution

Factors•Baseline and pipeline•Urban areas•Gas network proximity•Electricity network proximity

Draft Results

Gas vehicles in WWU SW



480

1432 4361 8303 13997

Two Degrees 1473 4628 8920 15031

Hybrid Accelerator 1453 4495 8612 14514

Consumer Evolution 959 2367 3913 5589

Steady Progression 977 2367 3914 5590



43

76 288 1047 3396

Two Degrees 75 287 1050 3461

Hybrid Accelerator 76 288 1049 3429

Consumer Evolution 68 210 629 1720

Steady Progression 68 198 627 1707

Gas and hydrogen HGVs

Gas and hydrogen buses

Draft Results

Gas vehicles distribution in WWU SW

Factors•Baseline sites•HGV registration data•HGV mileage data•Major road network•Gas network proximityDraft Results

Electric vehicles in WWU SW



19,196

88,805 385,324 1,037,817 2,198,153

Two Degrees 78,023 336,562 986,496 2,163,712

Hybrid Accelerator 83,414 360,943 1,012,157 2,180,933

Consumer Evolution 33,515 100,977 284,659 767,102

Steady Progression 33,198 100,814 290,883 789,251



18,593

99,709 616,735 1,830,122 4,076,485

Two Degrees 91,298 546,515 1,759,283 4,028,775

Hybrid Accelerator 95,504 581,625 1,794,703 4,052,630

Consumer Evolution 37,032 148,738 505,346 1,441,231

Steady Progression 37,189 150,922 520,727 1,487,553

Electric vehicles, pure and hybrid

Electric vehicle energy demand (MWh)

Draft Results

Green gas supply – baseline & pipeline

Baseline Pipeline

18 sites (13 currently injecting)16,450 scm/h capacityPredominantly farms, some sewage and waste

8 sites with booked connections6,300 scm/h capacityAlmost all farmsScenario-based delays in connection date

Draft Results

Green gas supply - projections

Projections

Between 242% and 542% increase in green gas by volume by 2035Represents between ~5% and ~15% of the WWU SW LDZ supply in 2035Based on a Cadent feedstock availability study, between 5.3% and 10.0% of England’s biomethane from AD resourceConsiders increasing food waste collection by 2023, FES proportional year-by-year increase of green gas, existing baseline and pipeline

Draft Results

Green gas supply - projections

Projections

Between 242% and 542% increase in green gas by volume by 2035Represents between ~5% and ~15% of the WWU SW LDZ supply in 2035Based on a Cadent feedstock availability study, between 5.3% and 10.0% of England’s biomethane from AD resourceConsiders mandatory food waste collection by 2023, FES proportional year-by-year increase of green gas, existing baseline and pipeline

Draft Results

Green gas supply - distribution

Factors•Baseline and pipeline•Population centres (waste)•Agricultural land (energy crops)•Gas network•LPZ demand

Draft Results

Alternative gas supply - hydrogen

100% hydrogen networks• Not projected to occur within the WWU SW LDZ, within the timeframe of 2018-2035

• H21 project suggests beginning conversion of Bristol in 2036/37

Hydrogen blending• No blended hydrogen in any of the four FES scenarios

• Current allowable blending proportions are extremely low

• Must be below 20% by volume (6% by energy) for compatibility with current household appliances and distribution network

• Allowable volume blend for gas-fired power generation is even lower

• Production: SMR with CCUS, or electrolysis?

• Considered in the ‘Hybrid Accelerator’ scenario

Draft Results

Carbon positionDraft Results

Carbon emissions – domestic heat

Carbon calculation factors – domestic heat

• Number of each heating technology• Falling heat demand per household• Increasing efficiency of heating technologies• Falling carbon intensity of grid electricity• Falling carbon intensity of mains gas

Draft Results

Key findings and draft results from scenario forecastingGas for heat –non-domestic Commercial...

Documents

Transcript of Key findings and draft results from scenario forecastingGas for heat –non-domestic Commercial...