Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.
-
Upload
harley-causey -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.
Kevin Kaufman
INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMITNovember 14, 2006
2
Agenda
BNSF Ag overview Projected rail growth Rail capacity Industry challenges Summary
3
Total Agricultural Products: 726,027 +44,376 or 6.5%
Wheat-3.6%
Corn24.6%
Bulk Foods4.4%
Fertilizer-4.4%
Other5.4%
149,042
37,166Soybeans
-0.7%
73,660
74,533
168,160
197,109
Agricultural ProductsJanuary-September 2006 Volume
Units and % Change from 2005
26,357
Ethanol12.9%
4
2006 Ag Volume Growth
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000BNSF UP
Rolling 4-week average
Volume Growth
Week
Units
391
YTD
Chg
Last 4 WK
Chg
BNSF 6.6% 7.1%
UP 2.2% -1.1%
5
BNSF’s Mid and Short-Term Leased Fleet Ag Growth
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F
BNSF Ag Carloads 2002-2008
6
US Rail Ethanol Growth
Source: Potential aggressive growth scenario based on various public forecasts.
Year Production (gallons) Growth (gallons)
Ethanol Railcar Equivalents if
100% Rail
DDG Railcar Equivalents if
100% Rail
Corn railcar Equivalents if 20%
Rail
Potential Total Additional Railcars
2006 4,900,000,000
2007 7,500,000,000 2,600,000,000 88,435 88,488 48,148 225,071
2008 9,300,000,000 1,800,000,000 61,224 61,216 33,333 155,773
2009 10,000,000,000 700,000,000 23,810 23,824 12,963 60,597
2010 10,500,000,000 500,000,000 17,007 17,017 9,259 43,283
7
We Are Prepared for Growth
Maintain strong infrastructure
Capital investment for expansion Main lines Equipment Economic Development
Velocity Unit train programs - shuttles
8
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 E
Program Maintenance Expansion Mechanical Other Locomotive
Capital CommitmentsBNSF Capital Commitments vs. ROIC
$ Millions
$2,258$2,520
$2,265
$1,763$1,608
$1,505
$1,726
$1,988
$2,179
$ Millions
ROIC*
6.6% 6.6%
7.9%
10.1%9.5% 9.7% 9.4%
7.2%
8.8%
Strategic Focus
$2,600
Note: See BNSF web site/Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP
9
Fleet Size
Unit CapacityAg Velocity Has IncreasedAg Velocity Has Increased
155
160
165
170
175
2003 2004 2005 2006
mil
es
pe
r d
ay
BNSF average quarterly grain car velocity during first three quarters of year.
10
Fleet Size
Unit CapacityAg Capacity Has Improved With Shuttles Ag Capacity Has Improved With Shuttles
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
Ca
rs
29,000
31,500
34,000
36,500
39,000
41,500
44,000
Lo
ad
ing
s
Average Fleet Size Average Monthly Loadings
11
But is the Ethanol Industry?
Developing ethanol markets Where? Infrastructure? Who? How large? When?
Rail fleet utilization Scale efficiency—Supply chain alignment Plant & infrastructure design Investment: ITC
DDG Product quality, consistency, flowability Market?
12
Summary
Rail transportation capacity is not a barrier today Continued return-justified investment is essential ITC
INDUSTRY infrastructure is inadequate and not supply chain aligned
Markets are not developed Stakeholder communication is essential
Market evolution Collaboration Transportation design