Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.

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Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006

Transcript of Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.

Page 1: Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.

Kevin Kaufman

INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMITNovember 14, 2006

Page 2: Kevin Kaufman INDIANA LOGISTICS SUMMIT November 14, 2006.

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Agenda

BNSF Ag overview Projected rail growth Rail capacity Industry challenges Summary

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Total Agricultural Products: 726,027 +44,376 or 6.5%

Wheat-3.6%

Corn24.6%

Bulk Foods4.4%

Fertilizer-4.4%

Other5.4%

149,042

37,166Soybeans

-0.7%

73,660

74,533

168,160

197,109

Agricultural ProductsJanuary-September 2006 Volume

Units and % Change from 2005

26,357

Ethanol12.9%

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2006 Ag Volume Growth

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000BNSF UP

Rolling 4-week average

Volume Growth

Week

Units

391

YTD

Chg

Last 4 WK

Chg

BNSF 6.6% 7.1%

UP 2.2% -1.1%

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BNSF’s Mid and Short-Term Leased Fleet Ag Growth

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F

BNSF Ag Carloads 2002-2008

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US Rail Ethanol Growth

Source: Potential aggressive growth scenario based on various public forecasts.

Year Production (gallons) Growth (gallons)

Ethanol Railcar Equivalents if

100% Rail

DDG Railcar Equivalents if

100% Rail

Corn railcar Equivalents if 20%

Rail

Potential Total Additional Railcars

2006 4,900,000,000          

2007 7,500,000,000 2,600,000,000 88,435 88,488 48,148 225,071

2008 9,300,000,000 1,800,000,000 61,224 61,216 33,333 155,773

2009 10,000,000,000 700,000,000 23,810 23,824 12,963 60,597

2010 10,500,000,000 500,000,000 17,007 17,017 9,259 43,283

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We Are Prepared for Growth

Maintain strong infrastructure

Capital investment for expansion Main lines Equipment Economic Development

Velocity Unit train programs - shuttles

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 E

Program Maintenance Expansion Mechanical Other Locomotive

Capital CommitmentsBNSF Capital Commitments vs. ROIC

$ Millions

$2,258$2,520

$2,265

$1,763$1,608

$1,505

$1,726

$1,988

$2,179

$ Millions

ROIC*

6.6% 6.6%

7.9%

10.1%9.5% 9.7% 9.4%

7.2%

8.8%

Strategic Focus

$2,600

Note: See BNSF web site/Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP

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Fleet Size

Unit CapacityAg Velocity Has IncreasedAg Velocity Has Increased

155

160

165

170

175

2003 2004 2005 2006

mil

es

pe

r d

ay

BNSF average quarterly grain car velocity during first three quarters of year.

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Fleet Size

Unit CapacityAg Capacity Has Improved With Shuttles Ag Capacity Has Improved With Shuttles

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

Ca

rs

29,000

31,500

34,000

36,500

39,000

41,500

44,000

Lo

ad

ing

s

Average Fleet Size Average Monthly Loadings

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But is the Ethanol Industry?

Developing ethanol markets Where? Infrastructure? Who? How large? When?

Rail fleet utilization Scale efficiency—Supply chain alignment Plant & infrastructure design Investment: ITC

DDG Product quality, consistency, flowability Market?

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Summary

Rail transportation capacity is not a barrier today Continued return-justified investment is essential ITC

INDUSTRY infrastructure is inadequate and not supply chain aligned

Markets are not developed Stakeholder communication is essential

Market evolution Collaboration Transportation design