Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

General introduction

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Workshop objectives

• You are more:– aware of the benefits and the challenges of

mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigationin national development planning and budgeting

– familiar with a framework and tools available for– familiar with a framework and tools available formainstreaming climate change

– motivated and better equipped to contribute to thismainstreaming process

• You also:– share your views, knowledge and experience

– provide insights and feedback to the EC on climatechange mainstreaming

2

Daily timetable

9:00 – 11:00 Session 1

11:00 – 11:30 Coffee break

11:30 – 13:00 Session 2

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 – 15:30 Session 3

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee break

16:00 – 17:30 Session 4

3

What is the GCCA?What is the GCCA?

4

Enhanced dialogue with developingcountries on climate change

• First pillar of the Global Climate ChangeAlliance (GCCA)

• Promote a convergence of visions on a post-2012 climatechange regime between the EU and partner countries

• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and joint• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and jointdeclarations– Asia, May 2010

– Africa, Oct 2010

– Pacific, March 2011 (e.g. specific dialogue on climate finance andaid effectiveness)

– Caribbean, March 2011

• National policy dialogue (see pillar 2)

5

Increased support for climatechange

• Second pillar of the GCCA

• € 200 million (2008-2011)

• € 60+ million (2012-2013)

• Promote approaches to integrate climate change into• Promote approaches to integrate climate change intodevelopment planning and budgeting

• Focus on integration of climate change in poverty reductionefforts, adaptation in water and agriculture, REDD, CDM andDRR

– Mainstreaming programmes and workshops

– Implementation of NAPAs

• Budget support as preferred modality

6

Belize, Guyana,Jamaica,CARIFORUM withCCCCC

Bangladesh, Bhutan,Cambodia, Laos,Maldives, Nepal,Mekong River

Where do we work?

Mozambique, Mali,Tanzania, Senegal,Rwanda, Ethiopia,Gambia, Benin, Uganda,Sierra Leone, DRC,Seychelles, Mauritius,COMESA,ECOWAS/CILLS,ClimDev Africa

Solomon Islands,Vanuatu, Samoa,University of SouthPacific, South PacificCommunity

Mainstreamingprogrammes

Mainstreamingworkshops

Budget support

7

Lessons learned: aid effectiveness,mainstreaming & budget support

• Ownership: supporting developing countries’ agendas

‒ National development or sector strategies

‒ National adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)

• Alignment: using country systems

‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting

• Country programmes

• Training workshops with ministries of finance

‒ Budget support for climate change

• Harmonisation: improved coordination (within EU, with other partners)

‒ Joint financing (e.g. GCCA with IE, CY, CZ, SE)

‒ Joint programming (e.g. GCCA with DK, GE, UN)

=> Paving the way for scaled up climate change response throughdialogue, capacity building and actions

8

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 1

Understanding climate change –

development linkagesdevelopment linkages

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Adaptation, mitigation and vulnerabilityAdaptation, mitigation and vulnerability

2

Adaptation and mitigation

Humanactivities

AdaptationMitigation

Climate,environment &

natural resources

Impacts

3

Opportunities, risks& constraints

Vulnerability

•Age•Gender

•Social group

•Education

•Wealth

•Access toinformation and

++

+

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Resilienceinformation and

technology

•‘Built’ and ‘green’infrastructure

•Institutions

•Social organisation

•Culture

•Equity &(in)equality

•Development level

Adaptation Maladaptation

-

+-

4

Vulnerability

Resilience

Biophysical and socioeconomicimpacts

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to ordestruction ofinfrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

VulnerabilityMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pestoutbreaks, ...

malnutrition

Economic disruption,loss of livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

Vulnerabilityfactors

5

Illustration: Possible climatechange impacts in Africa

• Areas suitable for agriculture, length of growing seasonsand yields expected to decrease

– margins of semi-arid and arid areas particularly at risk

• 75 to 250m people projected to be exposed to increasedwater stress by 2020 – and 350-600m by 2050water stress by 2020 – and 350-600m by 2050

– northern and southern Africa particularly concerned

• Significant impacts of sea level rise on coastal areas

– e.g. 17 to 30% of Guinea’s rice field area threatened by 2050

• Changes in areas suitable for malaria transmission

– e.g. western Sahel and southern-central Africa less exposed,highlands of Ethiopia/Kenya/Rwanda/Burundi more exposed

6Source: OECD (2009a), Table 3.1 p. 44

Projected changes in the probabilityof failed growing seasons

%age of failed seasons, HadCM3 GCM, current conditions (left) andby 2050 (right) under the SRES A1 scenario

7Source: Thornton et al (2006), Figure 12

East Africa▪ Rainfall may

increase insome areas

▪ Expansion ofvector-bornediseasetransmissionzone

▪ Declines in

North Africa▪ Water stress may

be worsened byincreaseddesertification ofsemi-arid areas

West and CentralAfrica

Current development issues may be worsened by climate change

Per capita GHG emissioncomparison1

MtCO2e per capita

Africa

U.S.

Global

2005

3.3

21.8

6.6

Potential impacts of climate changeon Africa’s development

8

▪ Declines infisheries insome majorEast Africanlakes

Africa▪ Low agricultural

yields may beworsened by drought

▪ Cities at risk fromcoastal flooding

Southern Africa▪ Heightened water stress in some river basins

from droughts and changes in precipitation

1 Including emissions from land-use and forestry

Source: Stern (2009), Grantham Research Institute – based on data from UNFCCC, UN ESA and IEA

2030

2.9

22.4

8.4

Climate change, environment and developmentClimate change, environment and development

9

Environment – climate change –development linkages

Climate change:

- an environ-- an environ-mental issue

- a developmentissue

10

Source: MillenniumEcosystem

Assessment (2005)Figure B, p. 7.

Climate change and sustainabledevelopment

Environment

Climate change

Biophysicaleffects

Both adaptation andmitigation supportmore sustainable

development

Environment

Socialdimension

Economy

Sustainabledevelopment

effects

Socio-economicimpacts

11

In turn, the pursuit ofsustainable development

enhances society’s responsecapacity

Climate change and environment

• Climate change is a theme to be addressedwith other environmental issues:– Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends

and problems

– Environmental management has an impact on climate change

12

Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado,EuropeAid Photo Library

Credit: Vietnamese journalist,EuropeAid Photo Library

Climate change and MDGs

Potential

Eradicateextreme poverty

& hunger

Reduce childmortality

Promote genderequality &

empower women

e.g. Adverseeffects on

food security

e.g. Increasedincidence ofwaterbornediseases

Potentialimpacts on

MDGs

Improvematernal

healthCombat major

diseases

Ensureenvironmentalsustainability

13

e.g. Dependenceon livelihoods put

at risk by CC

e.g. Higherincidence of

anaemia resultingfrom malaria

e.g. Heat-relatedmortality & illnesses e.g. Increased stress

on ecosystems andbiodiversity

Source: OECD (2009a)

The development–adaptationcontinuum

Vulnerability Response to impacts

Addressing thedrivers of

Building theresponse

Managing climaterisk

Specificallyconfronting

vulnerability

Developmentalbenefits

capacity

=> Developmentaland climate

adaptation benefits

(e.g. DRR)

=> Primarilyadaptation benefits,

developmentalbenefits as a ‘side

effect’

climate change

=> Quasi-exclusivefocus on very

specific CC impacts,adaptation benefits

only

Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)

14

Benefits in the absence of climate change100 0

Moving to climate-resilient,

low-emission development

15

Climate-resilient development

Biophysicalimpacts

Socioeconomicimpacts

Vulnerabilityfactors

The develop-ment pathaddresses

factors

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

Development(vulnerability

reduction)activities

Response capacity building

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

16

addressescurrent and

futurevulnerability,

risks andimpacts

Low-emission development

• Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are thebiggest contributors to GHG emissionsare also the main targets for emissionreductions: The

develop-

• Country-specific emission patterns anddevelopment objectives should beconsidered to determine nationalmitigation priorities

17

Energy (fossil-fuel burning)

AgricultureLand use changeesp. deforestation

develop-ment pathaddressessources ofemissions

Building on NAPAs and NAMAs

• Many developing countries have nowsubmitted their NAPAs (& NAMAs) to the UNFCCC

– NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action• Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority

adaptation projects with developmental benefitsadaptation projects with developmental benefits

– NAMAS = nationally appropriate mitigation actions• These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent with a

country’s development strategy, and are meant to put it on amore sustainable development path

• These are a good starting point for addressing theclimate challenge without compromisingdevelopment objectives

18

Adaptation and mitigation:seizing opportunities

• Green growth

– ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversityloss and unsustainable natural resource use’

• Green jobsSource: OECD (2010b)

• Green jobs

• Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’:development co-benefits

e.g. renewable energy

e.g. clean technologies

e.g. forestry (REDD+)

e.g. agricultural productivity

19

▪ Deploy on-grid renewable technologies using climate change related funding to coverincremental costsEnergy

▪ Climate-proof agricultural yields through funds incremental to ODA▪ Use funding for forest and land-based mitigation to capture agriculture and forestry-related co-

benefits and raise value of forest/land▪ Develop bioenergy industry for local and export markets

Agricultureand forestry

▪ Make strategic development choices that reflect water demand and supply▪ Factor climate change into design and planning of water efficiency across sectors▪ Climate-proof existing and new water supply infrastructure▪ Leap-frog to new water supply solutions that save both energy and carbon

Water

Adaptation opportunitiesLow-carbon growth opportunities

Illustration: Key opportunitiesfor Africa

20

incremental costs▪ Develop off-grid renewable power and cooking/ heating technologies with co-benefits for

development▪ Support energy efficiency programmes through capability building and knowledge sharing

Energy

▪ Orient transportation systems on a low-carbon pathway▪ Protect urban development and infrastructure through construction of sea-walls, dikes and

flood-protection systems with specific adaptation funding▪ Strengthen disaster relief management capabilities and preparedness

Cities andinfrastructure

▪ Build on efforts to strengthen public health and health systems so they can better cope withclimate change impacts

▪ Invest in climate data and track impact of climate change on health to allow for healthcareplanning, improved early warning and faster response to crises

Health

Source: Stern (2009), Grantham Research Institute

Adaptation and mitigation:developing synergies

• Quite frequently adaptation and mitigationmeasures are congruent and can produce a doublestream of benefits

– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbonsequestration in soils while supporting soil moistureretention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells

– e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneouslyenhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihoodopportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of localcommunities

21

• Mitigation should :

– Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements

– Rely on environmentally sustainable practices• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security,

water availability and ecosystems

Adaptation and mitigation:ensuring complementarity

water availability and ecosystems

– Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change

• Adaptation should :

– Take emissions into account• e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may

increase emissions from the use of fertilisers

• e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heatwaves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use

22

• IRACC: Initiative for smallholder agricultureadaptation to climate change in the Indian Oceanislands through the promotion of agroecology

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (1)

• Promoters: Indian Ocean Commission / IFAD

23

Source: IOC/IFAD (2010) Presentation byR. Andriantahina, regional coordinatorWorkshop of 8-9 December 2010 in Mauritius(www.coi-ioc.org)

• Project target: smallholders in IOC memberstates and Zanzibar

Climateconstraints (*)

Productionconstraints

Marketing & tradeconstraints Demographic

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (2)

24

constraints (*)

Agriculture

Fragile natural environmentPoor land use & planning practicesUnsuitable agricultural techniques

Fragile and vulnerable soils

constraints Demographicgrowth

Naturalecosystems

Socioeconomicactivities

(*) Shift in seasons,higher average

temperatures, erraticrainfall, early and long

drought periods, floods,storms and cyclones, ...

Response:-Agroecological

techniques-Notably permanent

soil cover

• Benefits of permanent soil cover:

– Increased resilience of agriculture to climate variability(notably through improved storage and retention of water and organic matter

in solis) => adaptation to CC

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (3)

– Restoration and enhancement of soil fertility(independently from climate-related considerations)

– Possibility of using non-cultivated or degraded land

– Watershed protection

– Carbon sequestration in soils => contribution to CCmitigation

25

Moving to climate-resilient,low-emission development

• Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreamingclimate change in policymaking and planning

Adaptationmainstreaming

Mainstreaming ofclimate change

mitigation

Low-emissiondevelopment

Climate-resilientdevelopment

The twoapproaches arecomplementary

In both cases,focus on co-

benefits

26

References (1)

• IOC-IFAD (2010) Regional Initiative for Smallholder Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change inthe Indian Ocean Islands. Presentation by R. Andriantahina, regional coordinator of the IRACCproject. Workshop in Quatre Bornes, Mauritius, 8-9 December 2010. Indian Ocean Commission –International Fund for Agricultural Development. Available from: http://www.coi-ioc.org

• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for FramingAdaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdfhttp://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. IslandPress, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx

• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policyguidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for asustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010.C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html

27

References (2)

• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml

• Stern N. (2009) Possibilities for Africa in Global Action on Climate Change. Presentation made atthe African Partnership Forum Special Session on Climate Change, 3 September 2009, AddisAbaba. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School ofAbaba. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School ofEconomics and Political Science. Available from: www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/7/43637571.pdf(PDF version) or www.uneca.org/apf/documents/LordSternAFPpresentation.ppt (PowerPointversion)

• Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Owiyo T., Kruska R.L., Herrero M., Kristjanson P., Notenbaert A.,Bekele N. and Omolo A., with contributions from Orindi V., Otiende B., Ochieng A., Bhadwal S.,Anantram K., Nair S., Kumar V. and Kulkar U. (2006) Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty inAfrica. Report to the Department for International Development, ILRI, PO Box 30709, Nairobi00100, Kenya. Available from: http://www.napa-pana.org/extranapa/UserFiles/File/Mapping_Vuln_Africa.pdf

28

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 2

Mainstreaming climate change

and strengthening institutions

and capacitiesand capacities

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

What is mainstreaming,

and why mainstream climate change?

2

From project-based approaches...

• Project-based adaptation approaches such asthose developed in NAPAs are a first step in theright direction:

– Contribution to national capacity building

– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level

– Identified projects usually correspond to real prioritiesand involve wider developmental benefits

• But there are also problems, notably:

– Poor institutional arrangements for implementation

– Low capacity for adaptation planning andimplementation

Source: World Bank (2010a) WDR 20103

... to climate change mainstreaming

• In the medium and long term, standalone projectsare unlikely to meet all adaptation and mitigationrequirements in a cost-effective, scalable manner

• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climate• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climatechange into all development planning, both atstrategic planning levels and in local development

4

What is mainstreaming?

• The mainstream: the prevailing or dominantcourse, current, tendency or way of thinking

• Mainstreaming: the informed integration of arelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsrelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsof institutions that drive national, local and sectoraldevelopment policy, rules, plans, investment andaction (adapted from Dalal-Clayton & Bass 2009)

• Institutional strengthening and change and capacitybuilding are at the heart of any mainstreaming effort

5

Objectives of mainstreaming

• Mainstreaming is a long-term, iterativeprocess aimed at:

– transforming ideas

– even more importantly, transforming policies, resource– even more importantly, transforming policies, resourceallocations and practices

• in order to:

– promote desired developmental outcomes (with regard togender, environment, climate change, governance,human rights, ...)

– and support integrated solutions to human problems

6

Why mainstream climate change?

• Climate change is a potentially significant threatto ongoing development / poverty reduction efforts

• Pursuing economic growth is necessary but notsufficient to respond to climate-related challengessufficient to respond to climate-related challenges

• Climate change impacts are complex and requirecoordination across multiple sectors

• Standalone responses to climate change may distortdevelopment priorities and foster maladaptation

• An adequate, strategically designed responsecan bring significant developmental benefits

7

A framework for mainstreaming

climate change

8

Entry points for mainstreaming inthe policy cycle

Agendasetting

Finding theentry points &

making thecase

MainstreamingCC into policy &

planningprocesses

9

Nationaldevelopment

planning

Policymaking

Implementation& monitoringMeeting the

implementationchallenge

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.2, p. 15

Finding the entrypoints and making the

case

Mainstreaming CC intopolicy and planning

processes

Meeting theimplementation

challenge

Preliminary assessmentsUnderstanding CC–

development linkagesUnderstanding the science

Understanding climate-related uncertainties

Raising awareness andbuilding partnerships

Collecting country-specificevidence and influencing

policy processesMainstreaming CC in

(sub)national and sectorpolicies, strategies,

programmes

Costing, assessing and

Budgeting and financingMainstreaming CC in the

budgetary process

Mainstreaming CC inmonitoring systems

Performance assessmentframeworks

Mod1

Mod4

Mod5

Mod6 Mod8

Mod9

Mod3

building partnershipsNational consensus andcommitment to climate-resilient, low-emission

development

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Needs assessmentWorking mechanisms

Costing, assessing andselecting adaptation andmitigation options and

measures

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Learning by doing

Supporting policy measuresNational, sector and sub-

national levels

Strengthening institutionsand capacitiesMainstreaming

as standard practice

Engaging stakeholders and coordinating within the development community

Mod5

Mod2

Mod7

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.1, p. 1510

Mod2 Mod2

Strengthening institutions and capacitiesStrengthening institutions and capacities

11

Terminology

• Institutions

– the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangementsthat shape and regulate human behaviour andinteractions, and notably support decision making

– institutions ≠ organisations

– institutions can be formal or informal

• Institutional framework

– a system made up of rules, laws, policies and institutions– in which various organisations interact with each other

12

Key institutional requirementsfor effective mainstreaming

Effective

Cross-sectoral& cross-levelcoordination,cooperation

Powerfulchampions atnational level Integration of

new thinking,new researchin planning &monitoring

e.g. office of prime minister,ministries of

finance/budget/planning

Effectivemainstreaming

monitoringsystems &processes

Experiencesharing,

disseminationof good

practices Timelystakeholder

participation atvarious scales

Strengtheningof capacities ofstakeholders atvarious scales

13

Roles & responsibilities ofmain stakeholders

Stakeholder group Main roles & responsibilities

Central government (incl. office ofprime minister, ministries offinance/budget/planning, ...)

Leadership, performance management frameworksPolicies, standards & regulationsAllocation of budget resourcesGuidance & capacity building

Local governments Implementation of national policiesIntegration with community strategiesIntegration with community strategies

Private sector Preparation for losses & opportunities, risk mngtContribution to sustainable investments &vulnerability reduction through development

Scientific & academicorganisations

Policy-oriented researchSupport for decision making

Investment promotion agencies Climate-proofing of investments, bridging ofdevelopment gaps

Poverty reduction organisations Climate change adequately addressed

Adapted from: Schipper et al (2008)14

Principles for institutionalising

climate change mainstreaming

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

15

Which institutional model?

• There is no single, ‘blueprint’ institutional modelfor effective mainstreaming of climate change

• Each country has to determine the most suitableinstitutional arrangements based on:

– current institutional structures

– a clear diagnosis of their strengths and weaknesses

– a clear plan for overall governance improvement

• However, there are some agreed principles andexamples of good practice

16

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (1)

• Move coordination of climate adaptation/mitigationto a central body with a coordination mandate anddecision-making power over line ministries

– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission

– e.g. Kenya: Office of the President

• Establish or strengthen coordination mechanisms,with a clear allocation of responsibilities andpermanent arrangements

– e.g. Mexico: Inter-Ministerial Commission on ClimateChange (CICC) with dedicated working groups

17Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (2)

• Build on pre-existing intersectoral coordinationmechanisms wherever possible

– e.g. coordination structures for food security, disaster riskreduction and management, sustainable landmanagement, environmental management

• Institutionalise flexibility

– e.g. commitment to regular policy/strategy revisions andreassessment of available knowledge

• Institutionalise adaptation/mitigation mainstreaming

– e.g. in guidelines, procedures, systems, criteria forscreening and prioritising programmes and projects

18Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (3)

• Develop effective national–local coordinationmechanisms, identifying the most suitable level atwhich to cooperate/coordinate

– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts between– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts betweenvarious levels of government, with clear definition of goals,indicators and activities

• Strengthen institutions at the sub-national level,matching the transfer of competences with thetransfer of resources

19Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Tools and actions for supporting institutional and

capacity strengthening

20

Steps in institutional and capacitystrengthening

Needs assessment

Workingmechanisms

National capacity self-assessment

Inst’l arrangementsManagementframework

Stakeholderanalysis

21Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)

Learning by doing

mechanisms

Mainstreaming asstandard practice

frameworkWork plan

Training, exchangevisits, on-the-joblearning, lesson

learning/dissemination

Needs assessment: capacitydevelopment for whom, for what?

• Capacity development (CD) should take placeat three complementary levels:

– the ‘enabling environment’ or ‘system level’ (overallinstitutional level)

– the organisation level

– the individual level

22

Start by determining:

‘Capacity developmentfor what?’ -> Define

specific objectives

Source: UNDP (2011)

Needs assessment: stakeholders’CD needs for mainstreaming

Stakeholder

Informationsystems &analytical

skills

Planning &prioritisation

skillsParticipatory

engagement &empowerment

skillsStakeholder

capacitybuilding

skills

Political &communication

skills

Monitoring,evaluation &

learning skills

Specifictechnical

skills

23Source: Dalal-Clayton & Bass (2009)

‘FUNCTIONAL

CAPACITIES’‘TECHNICAL

CAPACITIES’

Needs assessment: nationalcapacity self-assessments

• Based on existing or ad hoc institutionalassessments, consider for all relevant organisations:

– Level of education & awareness of climate change

– Organisations’ mandates & functions with regard toclimate-related issuesclimate-related issues

– Influence of climate risks on capacity to function

– Technical, financial, legal/regulatory capacities &information systems in relation to climate-related issues

– Planning, decision-making, budget allocation &programming mechanisms

– Collaboration & coordination structures & mechanisms

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)24

Setting up working mechanismsfor a mainstreaming initiative

• Define institutional arrangements (political andtechnical) (e.g. steering and technical committees)

• Set up a management framework

– Leadership arrangements– Leadership arrangements

– Human resources

– Financial arrangements

– M&E arrangements

• Develop an operational work plan

25Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Learning-by-doing: multipleapproaches

• Formal training on mainstreaming and onspecific technical aspects

• Exchange visits

• On-the-job learning through national mainstreaming• On-the-job learning through national mainstreamingprogrammes (e.g. GCCA-funded) including:

– Interdisciplinary teams

– Twinning between organisations

– Technical assistance

– Demonstration projects

• Lesson learning and dissemination

26Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)

Illustration: Capacity needsassessment in Malawi

27

• Analyze how government institutions develop/implement/monitor their CC programmes

• Understand which programmes adequatelyaddress CC and sustainable NRM issues

Illustration:Assessment objectives

address CC and sustainable NRM issues

• Analyse existing coordination mechanisms

• Recommend staff incentives and performanceassessment to enhance collaboration

• Assess the ability of the MDPC to implement jointprogrammes and deliver the expected results

28

Illustration:Methodology

• Semi-structured checklist used for interviews

• Self-administered questionnaire used to collectindividual information relating to skills, knowledge,and competencesand competences

• Data from the survey captured and analysed usingSPSS

• Information from discussions analysed using a‘grounded theory’ research approach

29

Illustration:Some recommendations

• Capacity development:

– CC coordinating structure (now development-focused) to support research and science

– Create a ‘one-stop service centre’ to help variousagencies deal with CC issues

• Institutional development:

– Legal and policy framework needed to guidemainstreaming efforts at national level

– In the long term, put in place a semi-independentCommission on Climate Change

• Policy development:

– Review of existing policies and laws -> use findings tostrengthen the CC priority area in the MGDS II 30

References (1)

• Dalal-Clayton B. & Bass S. (2009) The challenges of environmental mainstreaming: experience ofintegrating environment into development institutions and decisions. International Institute forEnvironment and Development, London. Available from: http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org/key-lit.html

• Government of Malawi (2011) Capacity needs assessment (CNA) for climate changemanagement structures in Malawi. Final report, submitted to the Ministry of Development,Planning and Cooperation by Centre for Development Management, LilongwePlanning and Cooperation by Centre for Development Management, Lilongwe

• Schipper E.L., Paz Cigarán M. & McKenzie Hedger M. (2008) Adaptation to Climate Change: Thenew challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group, UnitedNations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdf

• UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental Sustainability. UnitedNations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml

• UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into Development Planning: AHandbook for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/PDF/PEI-full-handbook.pdf

31

References (2)

• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: AGuide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

• World Bank (2010a) Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010. WorldBank, Washington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0

32

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 3

Understanding the basics

of climate change scienceof climate change science

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Is climate change real?

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report:

– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is nowevident from observations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snowand ice and rising global average sea level”.and ice and rising global average sea level”.

• Observed trends:

– Recent years warmest on record

– Accelerating increase in global surface temperature andocean temperature

– Accelerating rise in sea level

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Some observations: trends inglobal mean temperature

Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th

Assessment Report,WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1

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Observations and projections:global sea level change

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1

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Observations: intensity of cyclones

Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sumof category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category from

1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al. 2005)

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Observations: hydro-meteorologicaldisasters in SSA, 1985-2007

Source: UCL/CRED, www.emdat.be, quoted by World Bank (2009) Figure 4-3 6

What are the causes of climatechange?

• Natural variation is an inherent feature of theclimate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)

• But anthropogenic emissions of long-livedgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorcause of the changes now being observed

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The greenhouse effect

Source: WWF/IPCC

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What are the main greenhousegases?

• By decreasing order of abundance:

– water vapour (H2O)

– carbon dioxide (CO2)

– methane (CH4)– methane (CH4)

– nitrous oxide (N2O)

– ozone (O3)

– chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)

– other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine,

chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC,sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)

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Evolution of GHG concentrations

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1

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Globally, what are the main sourcesof GHG emissions?

Source: Herzog (2005) - World Resources Institute

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What are the main consequences?

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to or destructionof infrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

Economic disruption, lossMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pest outbreaks,...

Economic disruption, lossof livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

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Projections for sub-Saharan Africa(average conditions)

• Temperature increase– Entire continent

– Median projected increase +3-4°C by end of century

• Decrease in rainfall– West coast of Africa as far south as 15°N

– Southern Africa

• Increase in rainfall– Northern parts of East Africa

• Uncertain projections for rainfall– Sahel, Guinean coast, southern Sahara

• Sea level rise– Low-lying islands and coastal zones, delta areas

13Source: World Bank (2009), Table 3-4, p. 34 – based on IPCC (2007)

Projections for sub-Saharan Africa(extreme conditions and events)

• Increase in intense precipitation events– Entire continent

• Cyclones– Uncertain – changes in magnitude and frequency, and shifts in

cyclone tracks possible

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cyclone tracks possible

Source: World Bank (2009), Table 3-4, p. 34 – based on IPCC (2007)

Country exposure to climatechange risks (1)

15Source: World Bank (2009), Figure 4-1, p. 39

Country exposure to climatechange risks (2)

16Source: World Bank (2009), Figure 4-1, p. 39

Key reference

Describes aspects of climatechange science where thereis :

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• Wide agreement• Some consensus butcontinuing debate

• Insufficient/Incompleteunderstanding

References (1)

• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working GroupI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SolomonS., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B. , Tignor M. & Miller H.L. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

• The Royal Society (2010) Climate change: a summary of the science. The Royal Society, London.Available from : http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science/

• UCL/CRED, www.emdat.be

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References (2)

• World Bank (2009) Making Development Climate Resilient: A World Bank Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Report no. 46947-AFR. Available from:http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTAFRICA/Resources/ClimateChange-StrategyReport2010-Full_vNoImages.pdf

• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

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Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 4

Understanding and planning

under uncertaintyunder uncertainty

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Sources of uncertaintySources of uncertainty

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Socio-economic uncertainties

• Socio-economic uncertainties (e.g. related to futurepopulation growth, economic growth, technological

choices, societal choices, international relations):

– influence the level of future emissions and thus the– influence the level of future emissions and thus themagnitude of climate change

– also, create uncertainties about future vulnerability toclimate change

3

IPCC GHG emission scenarios

Source: IPCC (2007a) 4thAssessment report –

Synthesis report, Fig. 3.1

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Climate uncertainties

• For any given emission scenario, differentatmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs) provide different projections of futurechange – sometimes very different oneschange – sometimes very different ones

• Due to the complexity of the climate system,many uncertainties prevail and will persist overthe evolution of climate

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Uncertainties in climate changeprojections

• Temperatures and sea levels:

– consensus that they will increase

– magnitude of the increase quite uncertain

• Rainfall:

– expected to increase overall

– but some regions are likely to get more and some less

– for many regions in the world, uncertainty about thedirection of change

• Changes in extreme parameters:

– average future conditions are easier to project thanextremes

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Problems associated withdownscaling

• AOGCMs produce projections of future climatechange for large areas (e.g. 200x200 km) – but usedalone, do not allow the downscaling of projections tolocal and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)local and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)

• Downscaling requires extra data and efforts

– In developing countries, the data needed to downscaleprojections of climate change to the local or regional levelare often missing

– The level of uncertainty is greater at downscaled levelsthan at large scales

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Planning in the face of uncertaintiesPlanning in the face of uncertainties

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The cost of inaction

• The uncertainties surrounding climate changeare often invoked to justify inaction

• In a medium- to long-term perspective, however,inaction now is likely to be more costly:inaction now is likely to be more costly:

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*Wasted investment*Increased vulnerability

Failure to adapt

*More harmful impacts*Higher adaptation costs

Failure to reduce emissions

The benefits of action

• Some climate adaptation and mitigationmeasures are expected to provide developmentalbenefits, regardless of the scope and magnitude ofclimate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,climate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,regardless of carbon prices

• Even in the face of uncertainty, some types ofmeasures are justified

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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (1)

• ‘No-regret’ measures:

– those expected to produce net benefits for societyeven in the absence of climate change (adaptation) orindependently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero ornegative net cost at a zero carbon price)

• ‘Low-regret’ measures:

– those expected to have a cost for society, but anacceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring ifclimate change turns out to produce significant effects(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or lowcarbon prices (mitigation)

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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (2)

• ‘Robust’ measures:

– those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomesacross various possible climate change or carbon pricescenarios and economic development scenarios (ratherthan just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)

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Adaptive management

• Adaptive management: a flexible andpragmatic type of management, aimed atcontinually improving management policies andpractices, on the basis of ‘learning by doing’

– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results and– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results andoutcomes are analysed and lessons learnt beforescaling up or adjusting responses

– Involves robustness as a decision criterion, the inclusionof safety margins in investment and the choice ofreversible/flexible options

• Well suited to situations involving uncertainties

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Scenario-based planning (1)

• To support the choice of adaptation measures,scenarios reflecting prevailing uncertainties canalso be developed, e.g.

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1) No change2) Moderate change3) High change

1) No change2) Temperatures up, rainfall up3) Temperatures up, rainfall down

Scenario-based planning (2)

Contents of scenarios Scenario development

Changes in climateconditions

Key experts with arange of technical skills

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conditions

Resulting biophysicaleffects

Resulting socio-economic impacts

range of technical skills

Other nationalstakeholders

for their knowledge oflocal conditions

(e.g. government and civilsociety organisations)

Scenario-based planning (3)

Once scenarios have been designed:

1) Identify potentially suitableadaptation or mitigation options

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2) Calculate costs and benefitsfor each chosen scenarios

3) Compare costs and benefitsacross the various scenarios

4) Identify no-regret, low-regretand robust options/measures

Illustration and discussionIllustration and discussion

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Projected changes in the length ofthe growing period – 2 scenarios

LPG change 2000-2050, ECHam4 GCM, scenarios A1FI (left) and A2 (right)

Source: Thornton et al (2006), Figure 7(A)18

Illustration: Three climate change scenariosbuilt for the central regions of Tanzania

Each scenario has its own distributionof probability for rainfallScenarios are built to reflect potential outcome of climate

change

No changeScenario 1No climate

0% change

Scenario 2

Average Consensus

Ch

an

ge

Ina

ve

rag

era

infa

ll

Probability Scenario 1No climate change

Scenario 2

Consensus

climate change

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

02

+50%Max1

Change in variability(Standard deviation)

+25%Average

0%No change

1 One before the worse scenario

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Rainfallmm

Average-10%

Consensusclimate

change

Scenario 3

Max* Severe

-20% climatechange

0

Ch

an

ge

Ina

ve

rag

era

infa

ll

Scenario 3Severeclimate change

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) – Case study on central Tanzania – Figure 02, p. 126

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Ethiopia: climate change scenariosused for World Bank case study

CC scenario GCM used SRESscenario

CMI (*)deviation

Wet 1 ‘Global wet’ NCAR CCSM3 A2 +10%

Dry 1 ‘Global dry’ CSIRO Mk3.0 A2 -5%Dry 1 ‘Global dry’ CSIRO Mk3.0 A2 -5%

Wet 2 ‘Ethiopia wet’ NCAR PCM1 A1B +23%

Dry 2 ‘Ethiopia dry’ IPSL CM4 B1 -15%

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Source: World Bank (2010) Economics of Adaptation to ClimateChange: Ethiopia. Table 3, p. 9

(*) CMI = climate moisture index, determined by average annual precipitationand average annual potential evapotranspiration

5.00

4.00

3.00

Ethiopia: benefit/cost ratio ofupgrading road standards (1)

‘Wet 2’ scenario

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

2020 2030 2040 2050NO CLIMATE CHANGE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

Source: World Bank (2010) Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Ethiopia. Fig. 44, p. 70

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

‘Dry 2’ scenario

Ethiopia: benefit/cost ratio ofupgrading road standards (2)

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

2020 2030 2040 2050

NO CLIMATE CHANGE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

Source: World Bank (2010) Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Ethiopia. Fig. 44, p. 70

Illustration: background forAlice Springs CC scenarios

• Integrates data from several existing sources ofinformation (climate model scenarios, economic data,natural resource management information)

• Scenarios representing possible futures for Alice• Scenarios representing possible futures for AliceSprings based on narratives produced as a result ofstakeholder discussions

• The model does not make predictions of the future -it aims to explore trends and so make stakeholdersthink in terms of the whole system and a set ofpossible outcomes

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www.users.on.net/~treehugger/ser/index.htm

Alice Springs CC scenario:on-line tool

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References

• Alice Springs scenario-based planning tool: www.users.on.net/~treehugger/ser/index.htm

• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility,European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard CharteredBank & Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspxwledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Owiyo T., Kruska R.L., Herrero M., Kristjanson P., Notenbaert A.,Bekele N. and Omolo A., with contributions from Orindi V., Otiende B., Ochieng A., Bhadwal S.,Anantram K., Nair S., Kumar V. and Kulkar U. (2006) Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty inAfrica. Report to the Department for International Development, ILRI, PO Box 30709, Nairobi00100, Kenya. Available from: http://www.napa-pana.org/extranapa/UserFiles/File/Mapping_Vuln_Africa.pdf

• World Bank (2010) Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Ethiopia. World Bank,Washington, DC. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate-change-study-homepage

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